TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline 
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Earlier Hotlines -
2010 2/12/2010 - 3/22/2010
1/15/2010 - 2/11/2010
2009
10/21/2009-1/14/2010
8/30/2009-10/20/2009
7/31/2009-8/28/2009
7/1/2009-7/31/2009
6/14/2009-6/30/2009
5/1/2009 -
6/11/2009
3/30/2009-4/30/2009
===========================================================================================================
Overnight
Market Action:
Bloomberg Futures around
the world before the US Markets open.
24-hour Spot Chart - Gold
24-hour Spot
Chart - Silver Dollar and Currencies
=================================================================================
TIGER/PEERLESS HOTLINE
=================================================================================
New Highs: NYSE
= 7 New Lows= 11
New Highs: NASDAQ= 9 New Lows = 19
Ratios greater than 10:1 are bullish.
----------------------------------------------
DJIA ------------------------------------------------------
5/14/2010 10620.16
la/21-dma= .971
21dma-roc = -.563 P= -183
Pch= - 108 IP21= -.01 V = -414 Opct = -.087
21dma-roc >.70 shows
unusual momentum. A reversal down is more unusual.
More information on back-testing this soon.
IP21 (Current Accum.) >.25 make it harder for a
downwards reversal.
5/14/2010 - Peerless remains on
Buys.
But watch the TigerSoft Closing
Power's current downtrend.
Professionals Are Still Selling To
The Public.
Buy when that Tiger CLosing Power
downtrend ends.
A 10% Wide Trading Range Is Probably
Seting up. There are many
precedents for that.
We are suggesting reducing long stock
positions to those with
an Ai/200 score over 170 and doing some
hedging with short sales..
.
Head and Shoulder.
Closing below its neckline in judged Sell
Note bearish head and shoulders,
bearish downward zig-zagging of
Closing Power.
Wait for its downtrend tp break.
5/14/2010 -
Peerless remains on Buys.
The DJIA has now fallen back
to the lower 3.5% band without a new Peerless Buy.
Wait for the TigerSoft Closing Power to break its downtrend for
the QQQQ, SPY and
DIA before adding to long
positions. The
NYSE A/D Line is also in a clear downtrend, too.
In the best historical parallel we
can find, late 1989, waiting for the A/D Line downtrend to be
broken to the upside cost little in
terms of buying at a higher level and provided more
security. In 1989, the DJI
did not fall below the 3.5% lower band on its re-test of its
lows on the initial 10% decline.
We are hoping we will see the same limited downside
action here, namely that the DJI
will next turn up from the lower band. But caution and
waiting the the CLosing Power
down-trends to end seem justified. Following the trends
of the CLosing Power is a winning
strategy for anyone trading the QQQQ, SPY or DIA.
The DJI has rose only 40% of the
time in the 5 trading days after May 16th from 1965 to
to 2007.
Investors are now wondering if the FED has used up most of its ammunition in the
matter of the indicated its support
for the EURO. It is clear that more and more European
governments are being forced by
bankers and their orthodoxy interests and ideology
to cut back spending in an effort
to balance budgets. The 1930s should have taught them that such
cut-backs raise unemployment which
reduces government revenue causing still more
fiscal austerity. This
self-reinforcing downware spiral led in the 1930s to a Depression
and fascist nationalisms. See
the Economics of fascism
and The 1920s' road to
depression
and fascism.
The
US Dollar is a clear beneficiary of the current financial pressures on Europe.
The strength of the Dollar will
tend to bring foreign money into US equities, as well
as Gold and Silver. As long,
as the EURO does not fall too precipitously, thus shattering
the ability of businesses to buy
and sell altogether, US stocks should not fall more than 12%
from their highs and drop below
9880. In the end, the solution may well be ending the EURO's
universality in the Common Market
in favor of a return to local currencies.
Although Peerless remains on a Buy and the
10-month NYSE A/D Line is still in an uptrend, we still
have to be cautious. The biggest danger is that
the longer-term DJI has topped out here at 11000 and is
forming a right shoulder in a massive head and
shoulders pattern that started with a left shoulder
peak in 1997. Head and shoulders patterns on
this scale are not perfect. In 1925, the DJI moved
up past the apex of the right shoulder and ran to a
new high.
Another concern is fundamentals. The size of the Gulf
underwater oil volcano that British
Petroleum and friends have unleashed has
almost certainly been under-estimated. The economic hardship
this will cause is astronomical.
Insurance companies will have to sell a lot of stock to pay
all the claims, just as they did after
the Great San Francisco earth quake in April 2006. The role
of the Earth Quake in bringing on the
1907 Bankers' Panic is a lesson for us to considerfor today.
Here is the research I have collected on
this.
See Tiger Blog for 4/20/2010 http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/May-20-2010-/index.html
Finally, we need to watch the A/D Line for Nasdaq and low priced stocks. This is the
area
that has the biggest 2009-2010
advance. There are a lot of profits that could be taken in these stocks
in a most clumsy, quick and
alarming way. Recently, I have mentioned that 1989 was a good
parallel to learn. A new
closing high in the DJI and SP-500 did follow the sharp 10% sell-off
in late 1989. However, in
that case the NASDAQ turned weak and acted poorly after the first
rebound from the 10% decline.
You can see in the 1989 chart below how weak was the upturn
in the A/D Line as the DJI rallied
to a nominal new high. This is what we have to be concerned
about now. The TigerSoft
chart shows a declining A/D Line for low-priced stocks. It also tells
us that more than half of these
stocks are now below their 65-dma. This needs to improve. If it does
not, fewer and fewer of our high
accumulation new highs will achieve long runs after making
breakouts.
===================================================
===================================================
5/13/2010 -
Peerless remains on Buys.
Having reached price
resistance, a retreat by the DJIA, NASDAQ, QQQQ and SPY has now
started. Stocks, commodities and indexes bounce
back and forth between support and
resistance. Learning where likely support and
resistance will occur will help you. The broken
neckline in a head and shoukders pattern and a
falling 21-day ma both act as resistance
levels. When they overlap, they reinforce
each other and resistance is more likely to
cause a reversal. Now that we have tested such
resistance, a decline has started.
Where will support come in for a
reversal back upwards? Of course, news has an effect.
Criminal indictments of the biggest Wall Street brokerages
for fraud, insider trading,
front-running and duping, secretly bribing or the Mob-like
threatening bond rating agencies
are coming. I don't see how they can be avoided.
This will hurt the stock market. A certain measure
of trust and confidence are required among investors.
In their hurry for quick profits and bonuses,
the CEOs of Wall Street's biggest firms clearly took
the short view and paid little attention
to their fiduciary responsibilities.
(Prosecutors Ask if 8
Banks Duped Rating ... )
Technically, prices may find support at several levels.
1) The first is at or near the rising
65-day ma. This is most likely when the Accumulation Index
is clearly positive. That is not true
presently for the DJI, where the Accumulation Index stands
at only +.012. Peerless pays special
attention to the DJI. (The other indices do look better. For the
SP-500, the current Accum. Index (IP21) is
higher, at a +.08, while the SPY is only +.037. In the case of the
NASDAQ, the IP21 is +.128 and the QQQQ is .147.
2) Prices will often fall to the bottom of a price
gap. On the DIA this would be 105.91 (2.19 below
today's close.)
3) The lower band on the DJI acts as reliable
support. This is 3.5% below the 21-day ma.
See how the January bottom stopped at this level.
This is where I would bet any 3%-4% decline
stops although the lower band is much less reliable
when a head and shoulders pattern appears, as now.
4) Support also comes in at a key rising moving
average, either the 39-week (149) or 200-day ma.
The 30-wk ma for the DJI is now at 10500 and the 200-day ma
is now at 10250.
5) And support is usually found at previous low
closings: 10361 and .9920.
Which of these points of
support should we use now use?
If the 65-dma is penetrated, the safest
bet is the lower 3.5% band on the DJI coupled with a new
Peerless buy and then, for reinforcement. the|
breaking of the downtrend in the Closing Power for the DIA,
SPY and QQQQ ETFs.
Of course, many Peerless users often find the simplest
approach is just to wait for the next
Peerless Sell and buy attractive stocks until then as the
Tiger Power Ranker finds then or
just hold their positions in SPY or QQQQ.
STOCKS
We can always make things more complicated though. by
considering which industries and
groups of stocks to focus on when buying. The Hotline
has recently emphasized low priced
stocks, very high accumulation and gold stocks. I
think we should keep watching low priced
stocks. They can make each of these area because they
can spectacular moves even as the
market as a whole comes nearer a major top. In
particular, we take as a good guage of
speculative interest our Tiger chart of 410 or so low
priced stocks. Watch the A/D Line
and the Percentage of Stocks above their 65-dma on this
chart. We would like to see the
downtrends that exist there end. That would give us
new confidence to buy low priced stocks.
This seems important because we cannot assume that low
priced and speculative stocks will
always advance just because the DJI and SP-500 do.
Hedge with Some Short Sales
Another
approach we recommend is buying the strongest, highest Power-Ranked stocks
and depending on your view of the market, as weighted also
by Peerless, selling short the weakest
stocks in steady down-trends that are confirmed by most
negative red Distribution and a falling
TigerSoft Closing Power trend. Here are a few
of the lowest Power Ranked stocks:
ENER, GMXR, SPWRB, MON, STP. Certainly. as long as
their Closing Powers are in downtrends,
they are reasonable short sale hedges.
==================================================
5/12/2010 - Peerless remains on Buys.
The keenest resistance point for this rally is now being approached.
It is the combination
of the declining 21-day ma of the DJIA and the
neckline support that has failed, near 10950.
The QQQQ and SPY are also approaching their levels of
concentrated resistance.
A pullback would nicely accommodate all the folks
who did not expect this recovery.
But the market may not be so obliging. Notice that all the indexes are back above their rising 65-day
ma with their Accumulation Indexes quite positve.
The 65-dma will now act as support if there
is a minor decline. A retreat back to the lower
band will probably require clearer evidence that
the 10900 cannot be overcome and so is not
immediately likely.
Watch Gold and Silver. They are the market leaders now. Gold is at an all-time
high.
Silver is knock on 20-21, its high from 2008.
In 1980 it peaked at 50.
Bullish High Accum. Stocks: LCUT, MSPD, VIMC and FFIV
As long as we can find
stocks new highs, with the breakouts showing high Accumulation and a
CLosing Power making new highs, we want to keep on
buying stocks. Some of our favorites
that are showing massive accumulation moved up nicely
today. I would buy more of them...
They should make more new highs. The number of
NYSE and NASDAQ new highs expanded
nicely today. New highs are running again.
And now the weaker holders have been shaken out
leaving the shorts at a big disadvantage. FFIV
made a particularly strong looking breakout today.
Look also at VCI, STEL, SBUX. (These last 3 are
not posted here.)
The head and shoulders pattern in LCUT may be bullishly aborting.
====================================================
====================================================
5/11/2010 - Peerless
remains on Buys.
Gold Steals The Show.
A pullback from 10800-10900 for a few days, even a week, down to the lower band, would
be perfectly normal.
After the pullback, the DJI should make a nominal new high, at least.
A new high probably
reaching 12000 is the expectation gained from studying the power of the
recent Peerless buy
signals (see last 3 hotlines) and the good breadth, which continued today.
In the closest
historical parallel, the fourth quarter of 1989, the DJI did have to re-test the
lower band before
rising to a new high. In our case now, breadth is much better. So a
retreat
is not guaranteed.
That is why we recommended buying high Accumulation stocks
immediately. But
if there is a retreat, we will be pleased, because it would give us a better
place to buy using the
TigerSoft Closing Power when that indicators' downtrend is broken.
Gold - All Time High
Gold is likely to steal
the show for the next few weeks. GLD made a new all-time high. Its internals
are confirming it.
Gold bugs (enthusiasts for gold who usually express contempt for "fiat"
money) are bound to
come out from all the nooks and crannies everywhere and drive it up.
Gold and silver, like
many commodities,always seem destined to go hyperbolic or, at least, vertical
before they decline.
Remember that the minimum price objective for GLD was 1300 based
on the pattern it
showed when it broke out past 1000.
It is said that JP
Morgan has been
acting for many months as the agent of the US Treasury
to
try to hold back gold and silver by
selling it short at pivotal moments.
See also - http://www.dailypaul.com/node/130418
But now Goldman and JP Morgan have turned
bullish on precious metals. The weakness in
The EURO is a big part
of the story, but a bigger part of it is that the massive US federal deficit.
Realistically, it seems
only a matter of time before speculators rush into gold in a way that
resembles the 1979
experience.
GOLD - 1979-1980
.
That sprint into it may
be starting in earnest now. Given the volatility of gold, it's usually a good idea
to
trust that its rise
will continue when it makes a new high and its internals are also
rising. The gold
stocks making new highs and showing the most accumulation are
ANV, NEM, BULM and KRY.
Bullion Monarch Mining, Inc
Bullion Monarch Mining, Inc. engages in acquiring, exploring, leasing, joint venturing,
and selling mining properties in the western United States and Brazil. The company has
interests in properties in Utah, Oregon, and Nevada; and two mines producing royalties in
the Carlin Trend, Nevada
http://www.bullionmm.com
Crystallex International Corporation engages in the
development of gold properties in Venezuela. It principally owns interest in the Las
Cristinas Gold project located in Sifontes Municipality in Bolivar State, Venezuela. http://www.crystallex.com
- KRY -
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
5/10/2010 - The FED weekend decision to back the Euro has
caused the
shorts to scurry for cover.
Some kind of a recovery was expected because of
Thursday's Buy B5/Buy B17.
The size of the bounce is eye-opening, especially
for the shorts. The Fed
is commited to keep the rally alive. In particular, that
is a big boost to more
speculative NASDAQ stocks, the types we like when they
show intense
accumulation.
How far will the rally carry?
An immediate recovery which lets the DJI
tag the falling 21-day ma at
11000 would be typical in this environment.
That is what happened in 1989
after a similar sell-off occasioned by unregulated
computerized trading gone
wild. See the chart in the 5/7/2010 hotline.
Significantly, today's rally was so
good it brought a reinforcing Buy
B14 and a Buy B19.
I
These signals typically bring new highs, as
happened in the 1989 case.
Here are the new Peerless signals' track
records.
B14 - There have been 27 B14s since 1942.
The average gain was 12% when reversed
by the next
Peerless signal. In 12 cases the gain was less than 5%. The average gain
so high,
12%, because of the 8 cases in which the B14s gained more than 18% at the time
of the
next Peerless Sell. Only 3 of the 27 would have been sold at a loss.
In 9 cases,
the DJI
fell back more than 1% before rallying. In 4 cases it fell back more than 5%.
B19 - There have been 28 B14s since 1942. The average gain
was 6% when reversed
by the next
Peerless signal. In 21 cases, the
B19 called a bottom and there was no
paper loss.
The paper losses mostly ranged from 4% to 8%. The gains were usually larger
the proportion of
what was lost was greater than 2/3. These Buys occur when there is a
sharply down day
followed by an equally sharp up day. It is a 2-day reversal upwards Buy.
It stems from the
unexpected way the DJI and NYSE breadth reverse upwards. Usually,
after a steep
decline, the market is doing well simply to stabalize. A reversal upwards is
unusual.
It often portends a rally beyond the upper band. "These occur often when
politics
intrudes, i.e. when government shifts the playing field."
The highest A/I 200 stocks should not only
hold up well but move to new highs with so many
Peerless Buy signals
active. Two exceptions might be noted. A stock that develops a head
and shoudlers pattern
may take a while to work past the distribution and selling this occasions.
Secondly, avoid any
stock that fails to rally on a day like today when nearly everything
rose.
The highest AI/200
stocks HPQ, CTXS and INTU should make new highs in the next month
or two. If
they do decline, buy them when their TGR Closing Power downtrend is violated.
Highest AI/200 STOCKS
When in doubt, look at the highest Accumulation stocks in the DJI and the NASDAQ.
HPQ rebounded from a very oversold
condition today. A wild price pattern like this would normally
be a deterrent, but if you look
back at the aftermath of the 1987 Crash, you see that though
nothing was spared, the highest
Accumulation stocks made good come backs. In 1987, there
Tiger Inernational (the old Flying
Tigers company) had a perfect AI/200 score of 200. With
the crash it fell from 18 to 12.
But three weeks after the crash, it was bought out at 20.
So, I would say these very high AI/200 stocks should be favored now. Generally, buy
them also
when they test support or soon after,
especially if their Closing Power has just broken its downtrend.
See MWE and INTU just below.
===================================================================================
===================================================================================
5/7/2010 - Thursday's Buy B5/Buy B17 Should Bring A Very
Good Bounce.
But Waiting for either the A/D Line
or CLosing Power Lines to Break Their
Down-Trends Is Probably Best unless
You are Very Quick. 10800-10850 is expected
to be resistance. That is the
support level that did not hold. Breadth and
Accumulation are better now than
they were in October 1989 after a similar
decline caused by reckless
computerized trading.
Note the Buy B17, Buy B5 on the Thursday's big
decline. Waiting for the Closing Power
or A/D Line Downtrends to be broken above should make the market safer.
The Accumulation
Index is bullishly still positive and the DJI is now testing good support at
its rising 200-day ma.
Once the market turns upwards, shorts will be forced to cover. There
are a lot of high
Accumulation stocks, like HPQ and CTRX, that have been beaten down by
computerized
program trading that should recover quickly in a rally.
Head and Shoulders Tops
The Automatic Peerless never got a Sell on this decline. Hotline readers know
that we have repeatedly urged you undertand the limits of using just
automatic signals,
especially since the software cannot recognize bearish head and shoulders
pattern
formations and the market has been blind-sided by the biggest environmental
catastrophe-in-the-making in US History. Every day for the last twe
weeks we have
warned of the bearish head and shoulders patterns and the zig-zagging lower
of the Tiger
Closing Power in over-extended stocks.
We show below exactly why we must use judged Sell
signals when the DJI completes
a head and shoudlers pattern. What people do not appreciate and
we demonstrate is
how very often head and shoulders patterns
predict the unpredictably bearish. We show
how often head and shoulders patterns are the way the stock market quickly
responds to
new bearish conditions that it had not factored in prevoiusly. We must
acknowledge and
use these bearish patterns.
Please read
Head and Shoulders Patterns Predict
The Unpredictably Bearish:
1941,
1950, 1957, 1962, 1963, 2001, 2010
High
Frequency Trading
The use of high
frequency trading completely disrupts normal market behvior. We saw this in 1987
and again in 1989. The 1989 case is not so well known. What
is interesting is that the market's
internals NOW are much better than they were in October 1989, when the
market also swooned down
badly-madly 10% and then recovered as though nothing had happened.
In the chart below you can see that
positive TigerSoft Accumulation overcame weak breadth. We do not
see weak breadth now.
That suggests an even better recovery, especially if British Petroleum
can achieve some kind
of a stoppage of its oil geyser in the Gulf..
1989 Sell Off Ended Quickly
Computerized
Program Trading CAUSES Dangerous Declines and
Demonstrates the
Reckless Monopoly Power of the Wall Street Giants.
Has the sudden determination by the SEC to sue Goldman Sachs for fraud
caused the reversal dowwards? The Federal reserve under Bernanle
went a long way
in financing and sponsoring last year's rally. Volume was generally low
on the rally
and where it has been high, it has been high on down-days. This
suggests market manipulation.
Goldman was the biggest high frequency computer trader, by a wide margin,
manipulating higher and higher prices. But now with the SEC and
the Attorney General
bringing civil and criminal charges against Goldman, the pumping may have
turned
into dumping. Goldman may inclined to want to show who it thinks is
boss and
play hard ball. Only, if the government backs off criminal fraud
charges, it is saying,
will Goldman relent and stopits sell programs! Too cynical?
Hardly. This is exactly the type
of government and stock market you get when a handful of banks control the
entire financial
system!
Accordingly...
Traders must study more than just the
automatic Buys and Sells of Peerless.
We urge and urged you to understand these four concepts to trade
properly now.
1 >Miniature Completed Head and Shoulders in the DJIA and ETFs should be
considered judged Sell S5s
or S10s. (Such patterns that last 40 days or more should\
be considered judged Sell S10s.
We asked you to study the earlier cases of these patterns because
they are reliably potent.:
May 5,
2010 - SPY
Head and Shoulders Patterns: 1993-2010:
2>Closing Power Is Falling. This is always important, but more so after a
bearish chart pattern.
3>Friday we saw a 10-Month DJIA Price Trend-Break but bullishly, at least, the
NYSE A/D Line
Is Still Up-Trending and the Accumulation Index is posiitve.
4>Extreme downside volatility is a characteristic most often found in 1930s Bear
Markets.
See study in HOTLINE - 5/7/2010 below....
--- DIA ---
--- SPY ---
--- QQQQ ---
=========================================================================================================== -
HOTLINE - 5/6/2010
PEERLESS HAS NEW BUYS BUY B5 and BUY B17. The Year-long
price uptrendline
in the DJIA is being tested.
A CLosing Below This Will Usher in More Selling.
Waiting for the Tiger CLosing Power
Down-Trend to End Will Help Add Safety
To New Purchases. Internals
are constructive, apart from the dangerous downside
volatility.
BUY B5 - 10 trades. Average
Gain = 7%
BUY B17s in a rising market.
- Average Gain = 9.6%
Computerized trading is blamed for today's severe volatility. But the market was
ready to take profits. The Head and Shoulders
Pattern was our most important
warning. These patterns are
clearly used by lots of people, especially when
folks are made nervous by the bad
news. A big rally that has not been
"corrected" adds to
vulnerability, beacuse some traders panic and take profits
clumsily when prices go into a
free-fall. They often use stop losses that market
makers can easily "gun
for". That is probbaly what happened today. I would not
put it past market makers to
artificially produce head and shoulders tops
from time to time for this purpose!
To spot these patterns, you must do
your homework and learn to recognize
them. Our software is unable
to spot the important head and shoulders pattern itself,
only Sell S10 breakdowns, some
of whixh follow head and shoulders tops.
We have two write-ups on head and
shoulders patterns applicable here:
SP-500 Head and
Shoulders Patterns
DJI Head and Shoulders
S10
Look at the patterns. Ours this year were classic and easily spotted.
In addition, we highly recommend
using breaks in CLosing Power uptrends
as SELL, especially when other
curcumstances, like head and shoulders patterns,
make the situation more bearish.
Last week's zig-zagging downward of the
Tiger Closing Power in
over-extended stocks and key ETFs was another key to
seeing the market had become
vulnerable and guarding your profits. In my opinion,
traders of general market ETFs
should should Peerless plus key chart recognition
(tops, trendlines, support and
resistance) AND also the trends of the Tiger CLosing Power.
While the market's breadth
and Accumulation Index internals are
positive enough to now give
Peerless Buy signals, the market's volatility
is very scary and
preservation of capital is the key to long-term investment
survival. Our market is
much stronger technically than in 1929, 1987 or 2008.
But we are on the verge of
breaking a year-long price uptrend on very high
volatility. That is
dangerous. News can be NEW and catch markets by surprise.
The Gulf catastrophe is such
an event.
-------------- 1929 --------------
-------------- 1987 --------------
So the extreme downside volatility
we saw today alone should make us nervous.
With the DJIA now at a year-long
price uptrend, we should be careful.. A closing
violation of this much-watched
uptrend is apt to bring an additional bout of
selling. That may occur
tomorrow. That could also lead to a breaking of the
9900 December support.
So, I would prefer to see the
TigerSoft Closing Power to break its downtrend,
before going 100% long. That
would suggest support is holding.
Instead, for now, either stay
under-exposed or stay hedged (long and short).
To help you, we have been posting
completed head and head and shoulders patterns
here for your consideration.
Another approach now is to inspect with the Tiger
Power ranker all the stocks making
new 12 month lows and short those breaking
below support that are considered
"BEARISH" by the Tiger Power Ranker.
Our studies of such stocks in the
2008 crash showed that these stocks were best
then covered when the Tiger CLosing
Power for them broke their downtrend-lines.
See the Power Ranker's flags for Bulish and Bearish
tonight among new highs
and new lows, respectively.
New Highs: NYSE = 5 New Lows= 68 Bearish
New Highs: NASDAQ= 19 New Lows = 81 Bearish
It is bearish when new lows exceed new
highs so close to the
underlying index making a new high..
Ratios greater than 10:1 are bullish.
Watch the SPY's and QQQQ's Closing Powers.
A break in its down-trend will be a Buy after a test of support.
====================================================================================
====================================================================================
HOTLINE - 5/5/2010 PEERLESS REMAINS ON A BUY.
But the completed head and
shoulders patterns and Falling Closing Powers
are bearish and must be
factored in...
See - SPY Head and Shoulders
Patterns: 1983-2010:
The good news is that the key
ETFs are approaching the expected support of their
rising 65-day ma. If
the CLosing Powers break their downtrends after this test, we
should be getting a reliable
BUY. In addition, Peerless will give a Buy signal on weakness
if the P-Indicator and
Accumulation Indicator remain positive on a test of the lower 3.5%
band. But I would not
jump the gun here. Wait for the Closing Power to break their
downtrends with a new
Peerless Buy signal. There's plenty of potentially more bearish news.
Adding to our concerns are
new fears:
1) that the Fed may be
finding a secret, undeclared and unlimited financial war
on the EURO through Goldman,
hedge funds and the zombie banks). (There is a near-blackout
on this in the US press.)
2) the unexpected Gulf
catastrophe may just keeping getting worse. Centering hopes on
doming an erupting volcano of
oil one mile down seems a very long shot!
The Dollar's strenngth is not
accidental. I argue in my Blogs it is happening because
the Fed has given a
corsortium of the biggest banks, especially Goldman Sachs and hedge funds
money to raid Greek
Government bonds, which are considered the weakest link in
EURO. The Dollar
is rising steeply now against all the world's floating currencies.
This helps imports, but hurts
American exports. Big US banks and the Fed love a
strong dollar. The
banks want the US to be the unchallenged center of world finance
and the Fed wants the
financing of the trillion dollar deficits to run more smoothly.
There remains a fear that the
bear raid on Greece will go too far. Or that Europe
may reciprocate. In
these cases, a world financial panic may follow. Goldman, Soros
and the other hedge funds and
zombie banks may go too far on the downside, just as
when they create a bubble and
prices go too far on the upside. Another fear, we hope
paranoid, is that this
consortium will become a Frankenstein-like monster that the Fed
cannot control and it will
turn on California, Georgia or Massachusetts bonds and then
US Treasury bonds.
Of course, one hopes to be
wrong in laying scenarios like this out. The best way to
ensure that credit default
swaps are not misused by monopoly-banks turned into
dangerously out-of-control,
mamouth bear-raiding hedge funds would be for Congress
to ban CDS altogether, or at
leastm make buying credit default swaps legal only if one
is already long the bond and
if all CDS trades reported and traded openly/ Anything
short of this will be proof
that these scenarios are all too real. Allowing downside speculation
on entire countries or US
governmental entities is insanely dangerous. Why is no one
talking openly about this in
the US media?
The US stock market's rally
this past year, especially in low priced stocks, has certainly
had many of the
characteristics of a bubble. Usually we see tops in this environment when the
NYSE A/D Line starts lagging.
That has not happened yet. So, we have to expect more
new highs for the DJIA when
this decline is over. The next rally may then bring a
new major Sell.
Here are the charts of the US Dollar and other currencies.
Swiss Franc
==================================================================================
HOTLINE - 5/4/2010 PEERLESS REMAINS ON A BUY.
But the completed head and
shoulders patterns and Falling Closing Powers
are distinctly Bearish.
head and shoulders
We
now see completed bearish head and shoulders' patterns in the SPY,
QQQQ, DIA and NASDAQ. In addition, the
ETFs' Closing Powers are falling and
zig-zagging lower. The completed head and
shoulders pattern must be expected to
cause a wave of strictly chart-based selling,
especially with the market up so
much without even an 8% decline since March
last year.
The convenient aspect of the declining CLosing
Power is that we can just wait
for its downtrendline to be broken to know when
to buy again. This is a wonderfully
reliable technique to decide when to buy after
a support level, like the 65-dma has
been tested.
Once again, volume rose again today on
the decline. We will see if the
"Power Elite" can manipulate and hold
up prices here. That the triumvirate,
the Fed, the Obama Administration and Goldman
are still working together on the same
page to keep prices rising might be judged
today by the miniscule
$450,000 fine
handed out by the SEC to
Goldman Sachs for hundreds of illegal "naked" short sale
transactions.
This sure look like a decline that will cause
the DJIA to tag the lower band at 10700. But look
closely and see how the NYSE A/D Line did not
make a minor low which matched the breaking of the
necklines. Back in July last year, when
the DJI formed a bigger head and shoulders pattern,
I did a study of such patterns. They are
certainly bearish, but I discovered that they are
only significantly bearish if the NYSE A/D Line
also makes a corresponding new low.
Bullishly, the NASDAQ's Accumulation Index
remains quite high. This means that there
ought to be lots of buyers on any weakness.
Support is expected near 2300-2340.
INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
Hold the highest A/I 200 stocks. QPSA
actually rose today. But I would not quibble if you
want to sell an over-extended stock like
Agilent (A) that shows a downwardly zig-zagging
Closing Power. I would suggest hedging
with some short sales. Alcoa (A) and Travelers (TRV) look
weak. They have bearish head and
shoulders patterns. I offered this list of short sale
candidates for hedging a couple of days ago:
BUCY, IGLD, HUSA, MA, MSTR, MTA, RAX,
RIG, RTP, TEVA, WLT, WNI, WLT, X
See their graphs on www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/May-1-2010/index.html
.
==================================================================================
==================================================================================
HOTLINE - 5/3/2010 PEERLESS REMAINS ON A BUY.
BOOMING LOW PRICED STOCKS ARE BEING BOUGHT BY
PROFESSIONALS
MAJOR MARKET ETFS NEED TO BREAKOUT ON THE
UPSIDE. IF THEY
DON'T, THE DECLINE WILL GIVE US A GOOD SPOT TO
BUY AGAIN.
Note the DJI's compressed potential head and
shoulders pattern. The A/D Line's
strength reduces this pattern's bearish
significance. We have found that the A/D Line
needs to confirm any break by prices below the
neckline to make the move bearish
on more than a short-term basis.
The QQQQ's Closing Power is in a minor
down-trend. It and the other
ETFs'
Closing Powers need to break above their
minor downtrendlines to release the market for a run
to the rising price resistance lines.
We want to watch to see if the miniature head and shoulders
patterns are aborted or play out
bearishly and finally produce the 3%-5% decline we keep
looking for to buy into when the
Closing Power downtrend-lines are broken above.
|
LOW PRICED STOCKS ARE STILL BOOMING
High Accumulation low priced stocks
are still doing very well. They been the stellar
performers of the whole advance
since March 2009. Wall Street continues NOT to
tout them to the public. See
Blog of June 6, 2009 -
"Why Is Wall
Street Concealing The Huge Surges in Low Priced Stocks?"
That tells me the public is still
not in them and they have more to go. Watch the Closing Powers.
Professional buying is still
lifting these stocks. If we were at a market top, these stocks would
be rising based on jumping opening
prices.
See the low priced stocks up more than 10% today.
It is true that the Tiger Index of Low Priced
stocks shows an uptrend which is
not confirmed by corresponding new highs from the A/D Line
for Low Priced stocks generally.
That means we have to be selective. Use Tiger's Accumulation
Index, Buy B12, B24s and CLosing
Power. In additon, we have to watch for
the uptrend in price and A/D Line
to end, so that we can do some quick profit-taking
and await further developments.
For the time being, though, confirmed news highs,
Buy B12s and B24s are all well
worth playing. Maybe once a generation (17 years)
we see low priced stocks run wild,
like many are doing now. These booms occurred
in 1959 (See Nicholas Darvas's
first book - How I made A Million...), 1967-1968,
1977 (Prudhoe bay oil stocks),
1997, 2007-2008 (penny oil stocks) and 2009-2010.
LOW PRICED STOCKS' INDEX
Take advantage of it.
====================================================================================
5/2/2010 HOTLINE Peerless Remains on a Buy.
Do not underestimate the value of having a Democrat in the White House
who is
secretly very friendly to big business and the stock market. Republicans
keep
decrying Obama for being anti-Big-business. But Obama's silent indifference
to the
anti-trust implications of the giagantic merger between United and Continental
speaks
volumes, as they say. It is one more friendship signal the White House
is giving
big corporations and Wall Street. The market will rally as a "Thank you",
I would
guess, tomorrow. Airlines
Make Final Approach to Monopoly of the Skies
(Let's see
if any Teddy Roosevelt Republicans out there will take up the banner for all the small
businessmen
and families who will pay much higher air fares because of Obama's pro-trust policies.
I wonder
how much they paid him. Anyone know?)
In
addition, it has just been announced that Greece will receive a $146 billion
bailout.
This should
also boost to the market on Monday, but after that, there is still
expected to
be stiff resistance again.
(Bearishly ) The steep A/D Line has had it uptrend slightly broken.
(Bearishly ) Down Day Volume Spikes are frequent and pronounced.
(Bearishly) Closing Powers are starting to Zig-Zag down.
The Buy B18
signal normally sets up a higher target at the time of the next Peerless
Sell.
Positive Accumulation readings like we now see in the NASDAQ are
associated
with the sustained bull market of the early and mid 1990s. The highest
Accumulation stocks will likely disregard a DJI decline. Look again at QPSA.
Stocks with
this much Accumulation in strong uptrends are very rare. They
usually get
bought out at much higher prices. Of course, stock trade like
QPSA trade
very thinly. They are below Wall Street's radar screen. When we spotted
it below
$2, our first reaction was dismissive. Fortunately, our experience taught us
to
BUY.
MASSIVE ACCUMULATION - QPSA
Pull-Back, Anyone?
It sure seems a pullback ought to be under way. The market needs to digest
the size of
the environmental tragedy in the Gulf as well as the gathering storm
around
Goldman Sachs. Stiffer regulations/taxation on energy and minerals' extraction
would seem
a very good bet now. But how big will the cost be to the US economy
from the
massive oil degradation of the coasts of Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and Western
Florida? No one can say yet. I don't see how the stock market can
just shrug
this off; it was so completely unexpected.
I have expressed worries that Goldman may sell aggressively if it feels that the Obama
Adminstration is turning on it. But, upon more reflection, I believe at this stage
Goldman
does not want to create high placed enemies. They will not dump
shares or
turn to massive short selling. Many on Wall Street will be happy if Goldman
is brought
down to size. In any case, the
Fed and Obama have bet very big on a
rising
stock market. They MUST keep the rally going. Greek and Spanish indebtedness
do spell
trouble for the Euro. This will help Gold and the US Stocks, as an alternative.
Bearishly,
the major market ETFs' CLosing Powers' steep uptrend-lines are being broken.
They show
developing head and shoulders patterns. But the necklines have
not been
violated. If that happens, "duck and cover"
Where a
stock's advance has left it very overextended, it is apt now to be hit with
profit-taking that drives it back closer to its rising 65-day ma. Besides
internal
weakness and bearish divergences on such an advance, watch
for the
TigerSoft Closing Power to start zig-zagging lower. Our hotline
has
suggested some profit-taking in stocks showing this pattern if the
market is
weak on Monday. A decline next
weak will more likley be due
to
profit-taking and the grim nature of the environemntal catastrophe in the
Gulf more
than what happens to Goldman Sachs.
As a hedge
against a decline by the DJI back 10800, if you are nervous, I suggest
shorting
some stocks that have broken their 65 day ma with confirming weakness
from the
Accumulation index, show down-trending Closing Powers,
a price
trend-break AND a head and shoulders pattern. A head/shoulders pattern will
help scare
more of the technically minded traders into selling beyond
what a
simpler break in the the 65-day ma would tend to produce.
Screening
of 5000 stocks turned up 14 with these characteristics plus
a head and
shoulders pattern. They are:
HEAD AND SHOULDERS (14)
BUCY, IGLD, HUSA, MA, MSTR, MTA, RAX,
RIG, RTP, TEVA, WLT, WNI, WLT, X
See their graphs on www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/May-1-2010/index.html
IWM is the strongest of the ETFs. Now its Closing Power is zig-zagging
down.
This is bearish short-term. It has led to pullbacks each time it has occurred
in the past
year. If the market does open lower
Monday, I would sell it.
Otherwise,
hold for a rally up off the rising 21-day ma..
DIA, SPY, QQQQ: Over-extended with Falling
CLosing Powers . Watch
the horizontal support shown on the
chart.
DIA
SPY - head and shoulders.
But still above the neckline.
QQQQ - head and shoulders pattern.
Prices need to stay above the neckline support shown on chart.
|
===================================================================================
===================================================================================
4/29/2010 HOTLINE Peerless is still on a Buy. Buy IWM.
The market keeps punishing
those who wait for a pullback lower than the support of
the rising
21-day ma. The upside from the last Peerless Buy signal, a Buy B18, is
typically
9% in its 51 cases. The biggest downside is normally about 4% in the
handful of
cases where there is a decline of more than 2%. The major exception was
in early
1997, as the DJI fell from nearly 7001 (B18 -3/7/1997) down to the rising 30
week ma at
6392 on 4/11/1997. See all the cases of B19s here -
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B18.htm
Consider
the bad B18 in 1997. Compare the key values of the March B18 in 1997
with those
of the recent Buy B18. The big difference is that the P-Indicator was
lagging
much more in 1997 than now. This is based on the NYSE A/D data. If excellent
breadth
remains the secret to success in this market, we will NOT see a decline like
was seen in
1997.
Since we
are bullish, we would be buyers of the major market ETFs. I would prefer the
QQQQ or
IWM. The reason is that the QQQQ has outperformed the DJI by 5% over
the last 50
trading days. (Tiger users can see this data plotted by asking for the
"ITRS"
to be
plotted under Indicators 1 with these ETFs on your screen). The SPY has out
performed
the DJI by
less than 2% over this time period. I might add that the IWM (Russell-2000)
has
outperformed the DJI by almost 10%. The IWM chart is shown beneath the 1997
DJIA chart
just below.
3/7/1997 4/22/2010
Comparison
DJI
7001 11125
la/ma =
1.009 1.014
21-dma roc =
.437 .368
P =
137
317 better breadth in 2010
Accum. Index IP21 = .114
.095
slightly lower Accumulation in 2010
V =
11 4
lower
Advancing Stocks' volume in 2010
OP =
.137 .439
higher aggressive buying in 2010
DJIA 1997 with Bad March B18 - The Worst Case Scenario
IWM - Strongest of Major Market ETFS
Bullish Action Today despite Protestors' March on Wall Street
With 3x
more rising than falling on the NYSE and an abundant number of daily new
12 month
highs, the DJI rose 122 today. The NASDAQ and QQQQ have reached the
apex of
what could become the right shoulder apex of minor head and shoulder patterns. A
move
higher
Friday would probably be bullish enough to send these indexes up for another few days,
at least.
11300 still seems resistance for the DJI. That's 133 points higher. But that
may be
taken out
by much higher prices. The B18 suggests that. So do the very high levels of
Accumulation among so many of the DJI-30's stocks.
DJIA Stock AI/200
HPQ
182
UTX
179
AXP
176
DIS
174
CAT
174
IBM
172
BA
168
MMM 162
I have kept
thinking there ought to be a retreat back to test the support at 10800. The market
has not
accomodated such a view. It may still. But high accumulation New Highs are
plentiful.
(Data
downloaders can see these in "NHCONF".) Tiger users have to be impressed
right now
with how
easy it has been to find classic Buy B24s, i.e. new highs where that previously have had
a bulge of
"insider buying", as measured by the Accumulation Index surpassing .45.
This is
normally a
reliable sign of market health until NYSE or NASDAQ new highs reach an extreme,
perhaps
numbering 500 or 600, or the longer-term A/D Line uptrend is broken. The degree to
which the
P-Indicator and the Accumulation Index are failing to confirm the new highs is just
not
sufficient to bring a sell-off to the lower band. And, of course, there is no
Peerless Sell.
So, there
continues a buying spree by well-heeled instutional investors gobbling up secondary
stocks.
Clearly they have decided not to wait for any further pullback. They are not
afraid
to buy
smaller, thinner companies. Here is little know QPSA - Que Pasa - a Spanish social
net.
The levels of Accumulation are so high, there are few earlier examples that match it.
I will post
on the next few days links to a great many of the past very high AI B12s and B24s
going back
to 1987, so that readers can compare and contrast them.
QPSA - Que Pasa
God's Work?
Tonight it
was announced that Goldman Sachs will be prosecuted criminally for fraud
in
connection with its selling of mortgage CDOs and at the same time selling them short.
A criminal
prosecution is much more serious, more defaming and more likely to
widen into
new areas of culpability. I must say that I feel vindicated. This is
somethng
I have been
writing about on my Blog for more than a year. If GS does come under
criminal
investigation, it seems certain that much more will be learned of its massive
fraud,
insider trading, front running and market manipulation. Wall Street may not
like the
findings, but investors will be big gainers. The palying field needs leveling.
I would
think the selling pressures on the stock will not end soon. For background
see - April 9, 2009
Goldman Sachs Is
"The GREED CONNECTION" between Wall Street and Washington
The weekly
chart below shows there is little support if 140 is losed below until the stock falls
to 60-80.
Our Stocks' Hotline is short it.
OIL'S ENVIRONMENTAL COST - NOW HARDER TO DENY
Green stocks should get
a boost from oil spill
in Gulf. Would Buy PUW - 25.53
PUW (bwlow) seeks results
that correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the
WilderHill Progressive Energy index. The fund invest at least 80% of total assets in
common stocks of companies principally engaged in the progressive energy business. It
normally invest at least 90% of total assets in common stocks that comprise the
Progressive Energy index .
Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska...
http://www.nationalparkstraveler.com/files/storyphotos/Oil%20Spill-GUIS%20AccuWeather.com_.jpg?1271971177
"Spill Baby Spill": BP and RIG will have to pay for an oil spill that "eclipses"
the Exxon
Valdez spill in Alaska... First, look at the chart of Exxon back in
1989. The spill occurred in a strong bull market.
Litigation lasted more than 20 years.
XOM has paid only a fraction of the damages its drunken captain
caused. BP will
probably escape in the same way. RIG's reputation as a
drilling contractor has
been badly shaken. I would think its stock is a better
short. Note the weakness it
showed internally in the months before this disaster.
Sadly, although remote shut-off
valves are required in Europe, Congress has not got around to
requiring them in the
US. Watch to see if a movement for this occurs.
And watch Obama. He has backed Goldman Sachs and its CEO in
the past, calling him
a fine fellow and good businessman while taking $1 million from
them early in the 2008
Presidential campaign. Also of interest, Obama caved in to
pressures from Congressmen
beholden to oil interests and recently has taken the position
that offshore drilling is safe
enough to be expanded. March 31, 2010 Obama: To
Expand Offshore Oil Drilling
Will he back-peddle? I predict you will see him make a speech soon about the oil
spill,
whihc he will start by saying, "I have always stood for
protecting the ocean beach
environment, that is why I am today...." More
interesting, will be whether any of his
liberal supporters dare to criticize him for having too little
backbone to stand up to the
country's three most powerful lobbyists, the Health Insurance,
Wall Street and
Big Oil lobbies...
British Petroleum
TransOcean - RIG
====================================================================================
4/28/2010 HOTLINE - No Peerless Sell.
Same Technical Comments as Tuesday Night.
A DJIA decline to 10800 seems likely. European Debt problems will
worsen
because of the
ballooning use of unregulated credit default swaps, the absence
of any local currencies
and the presence of so many angry, demonstrating citizens
who do not find 20%
unemployment acceptable.
Amazingly, there is
nothing to stop sinister short-selling speculators from driving
Greece and Spain into
national bankruptcy, just so they can make a bundle. How? Example:
for
$754,280 a year a big trader can presently buy default "protection" on
$10 million in
Greek
soverign debt. Previously, speculators would sell short the currency of
the weak
country. As these
countries' currencies declined, their economies were boosted by
expanded tourism and
exports. Companies would be attracted by the lower costs of
labor and land.
So, there used to be a natural cushion against utter disaster.
But Greece and Spain
now no longer have their own currency. The EURO ended
this. This has
set the stage, as never before - except in war - for a total country
financial collapse. Of
course, the the heads of the Economic Union and the Greek
Premier call
"absurd" any talk of national (sovereign) bankruptcy or the breakup
of the European
Economic Untion. Others like the prescient economist from NYU,
Nouriel Roubini,
disagree..
Jan 27, 2010 - Roubini:
Greece Bankrupt, Spain Next
Apr 27, 2010 - Roubini:
Saving Greece Won't Work, Debt Crisis to Spread
The problem, as I see
it, is that the situation now can be turned into a tragic death spiral
for an entire nation of
millions and millions of people because of the utterly selfish actions
of unregulated big-bank
speculators, now, using in many cases, free US Fed money.
What are the dynamics?
Now when investors see a country in decline and being attacked
by credit default swap
predators, they back away because there is no protection against
bankruptcy, except
bailouts. In Greece and Spain unemployment is close to 20%. IMF
or banker imposed
austerity means even fewer jobs and less of a social safety net. High
levels of civil unrest
are a certainty whenever the Greek government seems to be
kowtowing to the these
pressures to balance their budget immediately. The media in
the US blame the Greeks
and Spaniards for living beyond their means. But are the poor
unemployed people there
expected to starve, just so rich bankers can get still richer?
Were it not for these
credit default swaps and the absence of an independent Greek
or Spanish currency, a
financial collaspe might be avoided and a bottom might otherwise
be reached. Of
course, Wall Street's Standard and Poor's gets into the self-reinforcing
free-fall when it
issues all-too obvious, but very public warnings that the Greek budget
deficit is at unsafe
levels.
Because credit default
swaps have ballooned so much, yet are so completely unregulated,
we have to depend
solely on big banking firms to tell us what their role was in bringing
about the Financial
Crash of 2008. Absurd! Of course, Wall Street banks won't admit
just how pivotal and
decisive their bearish role was in destroying millions of jobs and
retirement dreams.
Just allowing credit
default swaps seems like a costly and criminal fraud, to me. AIG
sold them with impunity
in quantities it knew full well it could not possibly redeem if
there was a housing
collapse. That is criminal fraud! Speculators bought them, just like
""
they are buying them on
Greek and Spanish debt, making the declines in these countries'
economies much worse.
In America, the taxpayer bailed out AIG and the big banks.
Bear raids were made
illegal in FDR's time. Not now. In Europe, an organized international
"run on"
Greek debt by these speculators will likely bring a chain reaction of short selling
of the debts of Spain,
Portugal, Italy, Ireland... and eventually the US! This is intolerable.
(More about this on the
Tiger Blog)...
GOLD
Gold is rallying
because of the dangers of sovereign European bankruptcies.
GLD- Target 117-120 Note inverted
continuation head and shoulders pattern.
World's Biggest Gold Stock NEM - Newmont Mining - 5 Year
Many reversals (9x) back down from resistance between 55-61
in the last 5 years. That suggests a breakout even above
the weekly trendline at 56 should be quite bullish, although
Accumulation Index readings are not very high. The latest
Quarterly
earnings (.88/share) have more than doubled
since
the start of 2006 (.35/share) when the reached 61.
One
would think that would boost the stock. IBM (not shown)
has done the same thing - play catch up with its earnings.
It made a breakout past 130 but quickly stalled out. My
guess is NEM will reach 61 if it can get past 56, but will
not be able to make a much bigger advance. There are just
too many investors who have been conditioned by all the backing
and filling to sell on strength. When the stock shows more
Accumulation from Tiger's Index, I would project a move
into 70s. That may occur after mid-year when gold stocks
typically start to enjoy much more seasonal strength.
CHINA
ITALY
SPAIN
=====================================================================================
4/272010 HOTLINE - No Peerless Sell. But A Decline To 10800 Seems Likely.
It's true, we will get an up opening from the rising
21-day ma. The internals of the market
and the 21-dma's annualized momentum (AROC=.153) are
sufficienyly positive to allow
a bounce. But my guess is the march on Wall
Street Thursday will provide a better
bottom, especially since traders are apt to want more
head-room to buy. The recent highs
at 11000 would seem to be the likely barrier to any
rally. 10800 would be a better place
to buy.
Profit-taking has forced
the DJI back below 11000 and slightly broken the DJI's uptrend.
The NYSE A/D Line uptrend will be broken on another day of
weakness, as will the
major ETFs's Closing Power uptrend-lines. This
seems similar to what happened
in January. This decline will be a test of how much
support is still being orchestrated by
the Power Elite - the Administration, the Fed and the big
Wall Street bankers. Today's
Senate attacks on Goldman Sachs may or may not escalate.
Obama has been quiet and there is
no evidence that Dodd's financial reform bill will
amount to much, even if it passes. Apparently,
Goldman's computerized trading is needed to rig the rally
higher. This Thursday's anti-Wall
Street demonstration on Wall Street may very well drive the
DJI back to 10800.
That was the peak in Janaury. Broken resistance
should be support on the first test.
It's true volume keeps
rising on down days. This suggests there are some cracks in
the Power Elite's rigging of higher prices. But the
consistenly very high levels of Accumulation in
so many stocks and the NASDAQ are usually signs that there
will be plenty of buyers
in the wings to support prices on any decline 3%-5% lower.
Look at the how bullish today's
"bullish" "confirmed new highs" look:
See SPEC, LGCY, MRVC, LYV, A, HYT and MSPD.
Clearly, the buyers in these stocks paid little attention
to the DJI's 200+ point decline.
See TigerSoft's Big Up-Stocks on A Big
Down-Day.
QQQQ is pulling back from top of channel
BEARISH WEDGE PATTERN BRINGS DOWNSIDE BREAK..
WEAK CLOSING - PROS HAVE STOPPED BUYING FOR NOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/26/2010
HOTLINE
PEERLESS REMAINS ON A BUY... I WOULD BE SURPRISED NOT TO SEE
MARKET WEAKNESS THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY CLIMAXING ON FRIDAY.
The DJI, SPY, QQQQ and DIA could not breakout above their diagonal resistance
lines, shown above and further below. That establishes the existence of
"bearish rising
wedge" patterns. The public has started selling on balance. Professionals
have been
pushing prices up after weak openings. The support of professionals will be tested
tomorrow when Wall Street CEOs appear before Congress. Goldman Sachs, in particular,
will be in the spotlight because of the SEC's fraud charges. Democrats will be
pretending
to be populists on this occasion. They sense they have an opening on Republicans who
are against heavy-handed regulations and future subsidies of the big banks. So,
there
should be a lot of rhetoric challenging these CEOs honor, given the taxpayers'
bailouts and the $13 billion Obama's Geithner let Goldman get from taxpayers as the
US stood 100% behind all AIG debts, including credit default swaps, which would in
earlier days have been considered illegal and thus unenforceable. In my opinion,
the Democrats, as a whole and certainly the Obama Administration, have taken
far too much money from Wall Street to be any serious threat to Wall Street. The 60
vote requirement in the Senate guarantees little of legislate consequence will be
produced,
especially with Dodd as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. His cozy - I would
say
"sleazy" relationship with Countrywide Financial, now Bank of America
is seldom
mentioned by the mainstream media. It
was Dodd, with secret encouragement from Obama,
who
added a provision to the TARP bailout bill that allowed executives at AIG, BAC, GS
and
others to pay out large bonuses with taxpayer money!
Wall Street Demonstration on Thursday
On Thursday, the AFL-CIO
and others will stage a demonstration on Wall Street.
Marches on Wall Street have brought drops in the market in the past when the market
was already declining. The uptrending prices should moderate the impact of
this.
Foreign and Public Selling will likely take place.
The "No Bailout
for Wall Street"
March on September 26, 2008 occurred with the DJI at 11143.
Two weeks later it stood at 8500.
In May 1970, such a march sped up the final decline
in the 1969-1970 bear market. The
march occurred on May 7th with the DJI at 723 in the aftermath of the escalation of the
war on Viet Nam to Laos and Cambodia and the Kent State massacre. The DJI dropped
like a rock and bottomed out on May 26 at 631.
Violence, on the other hand, would be a much worse development. In September 1920, a
very big
bomb went off on Wall Street
that killed 38 and seriously
injured 143. At the time
Communists and the IWWW were blamed, but later the FBI concluded that it was
most likely the work of Italian
anarchists who wished to
avenge the conviction of immigrants
Sacco and Venzetti. (Sacco
and Vanzetti. The DJI fell from 84 when the bomb went off to a
final bottom of 64 in th middle of 1921.
OIL STOCKS
Oil stocks are generally very strong as oil is working on overcoming the $80/bar
resistance.
I wrote a Blog tonight for Hotline subscribers tonight
showing some high Accumulation
breakout and impending breakout oil stocks. Here
you will also see some rules for
selling them when extended before they break their 65-day
ma.
LOW PRICED STOCKS REMAIN IN UPTRENDS
===================================================================================
4/23/2010
HOTLINE -
Peerless Remains on A Buy. DJI and other Indexes are at well-tested diagonal
Resistance. There is lots of momentum upwards in the market. Internals are
rising
and the Closing Powers have made new highs. For now, I would think the market will
keep
rising, much to the dismay of shorts.
My view is that this will be an important week. The CEO of Goldman Sachs will defend
his company from fraud charges, among other things, before Congress. But Obama badly
needs Goldman's computerized trading system at work to keep lifting stock prices. His
only chance of getting re-elected is if stock prices magically rise so much that employers
start hiring.
Obama also needs the FED to be able to keep giving its subsidies to Goldman and
other
Wall Street banks so that they keep buying stocks and don't start selling. That
would be
disastrous. To do that, the FED wants to keep secret the details of its cheap
"loans" to
Wall Street. These now approach two or even theee trillion, according to some
sources,
If the details were ever disclosed, there would be a populist revolt. Senate
Democrat Dodd
know this. He has inserted in his "Wall Street reform" bill provision for
more secrecy
for the Fed, not less. Google "Alan Grayson". "Ron Paul"
and "Fed secrecy" to see
and track this. Obama and the Democratic leadership won't be talking much. Nor
will the
mainstream media.
I believe that while the rally has nearly gained self-sustaining momentum, to be surer
of the DJI reaching 12000, the rally will need more Goldman's manipulations and Fed's
money to stop incipient declines from getting too sttep. We will know this is
the way things
are playing out, by watching Obama. Expect him to use more of his patented populist
rhetoric in the matter of Wall Street reform. But most especially, watch the Senate
bill,
in the matters of:
1) the breaking up big banks,
2) imposing a wind-fall profits tax on them,
3) limiting executive pay and bonuses on Wall Street,
4) limiting their use of excessive leverage,
5) curbing high frequency program trading and
6) openness and accountability at the FED
Any action along these six lines, rather than on derivatives, a typical red herring,
would ACTUALLY hurt Wall Street's power and profits. Without commensurate advantages
for Main Street such actions would hurt the rally.
So, if Obama speaks out at all, I seriously doubt he will do much to weaken Goldman.
We'll be watching how it all plays out. The way the market is advancing, it looks
like
Wall Street expects to have everyhing under control. Probably, Goldman will get a
big slap
on the wrist for fraud, but there will be no serious reform of Wall Street. One
thing, for
sure, whatever the Democratic Congress does, Obama will praise it as
"reform".
Stocks and ETFs:
Emphasize The Last Three Months' Level of Accumulation
and Stocks Moving Past Their Own Rising Resistance Lines.
CLOSING POWERS ARE NOW BULLISHLY MAKING NEW HIGHS
====================================================================================
4/22/2010 HOTLINE
-
Peerless Remains on A Buy. DJI Support is at 11000 and Resistance is at
11150-11250.
The DJIA has backed off from 11500 many times in the last five days.
This is clearly important resistance. The DJI will need to surpass this or
a 3% to 5% decline is likely, as it regroups for another assault with more
momentum. Meanwhile the excellent breadth, strong Closing Powers and
increasing speculative fervent are all powerful bullish forces. Looking at
the ETFs for Spain, Italy and Ireland, it is not evident from their highs
levels of Accumulation that Greece's financial problems will quickly spread
elsewhere in Europe. What is clear, is that entrance into the EEC has denied
Greece a way to depreciate its own currency, thereby making its products easier
to export and its workers less expensive for foreign investors to employ.
In this sense, Greece is a critical test of the viability of the EEC's economic
founding principles.
STOCKS SHOWING HIGH ACCUMULATION BREAKOUTS
=============================================================================
4/21/2010 Today the Peerless Buy was Reinforced by an Augmenting Buy B18.
This cannot be said to be an immediate Buy signal.
A pullback of 3%-5% is
still a possibility. The weakness in the bigger bank stocks today
could spill over to the
general market. 11200 is resistance. Support is at 10800.
I don't think that we
should be concerned about the financial stocks doing a free-fall
because Obama speaks to
Wall Street tomorrow. Look at how bullish the A/D Line
is for 113 financial
stocks (which includes not just the biggest Wall Street banks).
A weak closing or two
would produce a minor falling Closing Power trend. Openings are
definitely getting
weaker, too.
TigerSoft' Day Traders'
Tool for the ETFs shows we are approaching a tipping point,
where there is more
weakness (day's low) relative to strength (day's high) after the opening.
Since the new highs
have not been confirmed by this indicator, a break in its uptrend
would be bearish
short-term (two weeks).
The Buy B18 tells to us
we have more reason to buy if there is such weakness.
Buy B18s, even though
they are seldom reversing Buys, still average a DJI gain of
more than 9%. 52
of 61 were profitable. The losses were:
-4.5% (1950),
0.0%(1951), -0.2%(1978), -1.1%(1988), -1.7%(1996), -2.4% (1997),
-0.2%(1997),
-0.2% ( 2001) and -3.2% (2005).
,
When a Buy B18 signal has occurred
12-14 months after a major market bottom, since 1928
the Peerless Buy B15
has brought 5 gains (+6.5%, +7.3%, +10.9%, +10.2% and +23.7%) plus
one null trade on the
DJIA at the time of the next Peerless Sell.
4 / 20 / 1943 133.1 Gain= +.065
.993 .329 174 -18 .081 v=246 .247
Fell back to 131 before rallying for 3
more months.
12 months from bottom (4/28/42)
10 / 11 / 1945 185.7 Gain=
+.073
1.025 .441 138 -11 .237 v=148 -.001
Rallied immediately
13 months from bottom (9/14/44)
9/ 20/ 1951 274.1 Gain= 0 (S1 - 274.20)52
1.01 .387 98 11 .141 v=65 .096
Paper loss. DJI fell to 256 in November and then rallied back.
14 months from bottom (7/17/50)
11 / 28 / 1958 557.50 Gain= +.109
1.004 .443 104 18 .091 v=79 .342
Up strongly.
13 months from bottom (10/22/57)
2 / 1 / 1961 649.3 Gain= +.102
1.024 .736 197 13 .13 v=377 .324
10 day decline to 637 and then rally to
705 in 3 months.
13 months from bottom (10/25/60)
5 / 25 / 1995 4412.23 Gain= .237
1.007 .306 133 -10 .127 V=10 .299
Immediately rallied
13.5 months from bottom (3/31/94)
Tiger Index of SP-500 Stocks
Uptrending - 90% are over 65-dma
==================================================================================
4/20/2010 The DJI may still retreat 3%-5% from 11500. But today's
very good breadth shows the rally is still very much alive for our High
Accumulation favorites.
NO Peerless Sell. Peerless Remains on A Buy. Breadth improved
tToday.
The
CLosing Powers for the ETFs have recovered, too. 11500 may be the resistance
for
the DJI shorter term, but the 13 month bull market has logically gravitated down
to
stocks under $10 share. A surprising number of low-priced stocks with bulges of
Accumulation are making new highs. Carried to an extreme, thiswill eventually create
a
bigger and more dangerous bubble and higher diving board fro the market ro fall from..
But
this is the market's way of getting the broader public's attention. A suspicious
and
cynical public is being invited back into the market by such action.
The breakout today do not show a year of positive blue accumulation. So, these
stocks are not as tightly held. But the ones breaking out have sponsors and stories
and
will probably make good intermediate-term moves up from here. I think we should
buy
these high current Accumulation lower priced stock breakouts provided that the Closing
Power
is
making also new highs. As long as this Tiger indicator is uptrending, there is
usually little
risk
and much more upside potential.
High Accumulation Low Priced Breakouts
IGTE below shows lengthy positive (blue) Accumulation.
These are closer to
our ideal stocks. They can
usually be profitably bought on confirmed breakouts, successful
tests of their rising day ma, where the
Closing Power downtrend has ended. In some
cases, there are no tests of the 65-day
ma for a year. This drives the shorts and sellers
crazy and makes each new minor high a Buy
where there are high levels of Accumulation
and the CLosing Power is rising. LBY
below shows this.
NEW BREAKOUTS
===================================================================================
===================================================================================
4/19/2010
NO Peerless Sell. Peerless Remains on A Buy. DJIA Reversal
Upwards.
Opening Powers have weakened appreciably. The 21-day-roc (momentum) is not
sufficiently high to suggest chasing. Last week's highs and just above them will
probably act as resistance. If not, and the DJI were to get too far ahead of the
other
indices, a more bearish situation might emerge.
While
the ETFs' Closing Powers rebounded, there were more down than up on NYSE.
the
Peerless V-Indicator is now negative, showing volume is starting to flow into declining
stocks and the QQQQ and NASDAQ were down for the day. Speculators are taking
profits, it seems. Markets with this much momentum can keep rallying narrowly
for a
while even when there are divergences as now. But without better breadth too few
stocks are
apt
to advance and there will not be enough new highs to be confident that breakouts
will
follow-through. So, I would wait for a pullback to buy more, but hold what we
own.
See in the
NASDAQ chart the resistance line that is not far over-head and the price
uptrendline
that may be violated on a further decline. Such a breakdown should be
a buying
opportunity given all the blue intra-day Accumulation in this chart. These readings
suggets big
buyers are waiting in te wings to buy on weakness.
====================================================================================
4/17/2010
NO Peerless Sell. Peerless Remains on A Buy
But the market did reach resistance Thursday. The Goldman fraud "News" and
Volcanic Eruptions may bring some profit-taking and so a 3%-5% decline is
possible and even probable. Expect some Public Selling and a weaker opening.
It is unclear how professionals will react to this. But traders have lots
of profits.
This news is a catalyst to take them quickly. Doing so, especially in stocks
not showing high levels of Accumulation is only prudent. Traders may want to
consider some of the weaker SP-500 stocks for shorting that are breaking their falling
65-da ma with negative Accumulation and falling Closing Power readings.
Many professionals may be quite happy if Goldman is brought down a few pegs.
Most are very dismayed by Goldman's abuses and want them sharply curbed. They
realize Goldman has done every bit as much to hurt Wall Street's reputation as Madoff
has done. Many
insiders wonder out loud why it is that "nobody at Goldman seems to
be
able to make money in any of their public hedge funds, while Goldman's proprietary
trading
desk seemingly never has any losing trades." or, a least, very few losing days.
Specifically, they are are dismayed by Goldman's
1) flagrant and unbridled greed (paying its employees in 2009 an average of $700,000
apiece
in bonuses just a year after receiving a taxpayer bailout of $15 billion in 2008 plus
the $12.9 billion taxpayer paid counter-party handout from AIG.)
2) its flagrant use of insider knowledge, a benefit of having so many of its own people
placed in government (Goldman people in government: CTRFB head, Treasury Secretary's
Chief Assistant)
3) its manipulation of policy makers for its own special advantage (Example: getting
Geithner to agree to give it $12.9 billion of AIG money and also commercial bank status
so that it could use the Fed's Discount window),
4) its special and unseemly access to President Obama, after giving him a million
(more than any other contributor) early in his 2008 Presidential Campaign.
5) its domination of computerized trading to manipulate the market (50%-74%% of all
NYSE-NASDAQ trading in July 2009, the last month the exchange reported such data.)
6) and its common practice of playing both sides of every deal (Example: starting a hedge
fund in 2007 with $10 billion to sell short the very mortgage instruments it was selling
as AAA
rated to retirement funds. Not disclosing that it would benefit from a decline
surely is
another charge that should be brought on GS, and at the men in charge, not underlings
as now)
Goldman fraud is
not news, as readers of my blog understand. What is new is the
government prosecution of Goldman. I suspect that the SEC lawsuit is
window-dressing.
It is a charade to satisfy the public detestation of Goldman. Read the Yahoo GS
message
board, if you doubt this. More will come out about its pattern of fraud. Will
others
on Wall Street be accused of the same thing? Maybe. Will this hurt trust for
Wall Street?
Hardly. How much lower can it go? Actually, the SEC action may help to start
to restore
some confidence that there is a cop back on the Wall Street beat. Most important,
for our purposes,
there is no evidence here that the alliance between Obama, the Fed and Wall Street led by
Goldman is breaking apart. A rising market is need by each for different reasons.
Each partner needs the others too much to breakup the alliance. So, in summary,
the Power Elite still wants higher stock prices and without a Peerless Sell signal,
a dip of 3% will likely be a good opportunity to buy more.
A Retesting of 10500 Is Possible. But There Will Be Lots of Buyers on Weakness.
The TigerSoft volume-based Professional Buying/Selling Power shows trend-breaks
following failures by it to confirm the recent new highs. This is true for the DIA,
SPY and
QQQQ (though its trend-break is very slight). Meanwhile Peerless
remains on a Buy and
the Opening and Closing Powers are still rising.
Bearishly, the steep NYSE A/D Line has broken is uptrend. Such breaks, without
a previous Peerless Sell most often bring drops below the 21-day to a point half-way
between that moving average and the 3.5% lower band. A decline like this of
3% to 5%
is not too unusual without a Peerless Sell, once there has been an A/D Line uptrend-break
and the P-Indicator and Accumulation Indicator fall below the 21-mvg.avgs. of these
indicators.
Here are some examples of what happens when there has been
1) a break in the NYSE A/D Line after a 10% advance which did not occur just after a
major market decline's bottom.
2) the AI and P-Indicator fall below their 21-dma and
3) no Peerless Sell.
In 6 of the 11 casses studied from 1928 to 1974, the DJI fell a point half way to the
lower band from the 21-day ma.
Dec 1934 fell 1/2 way from ma
to lb
Nov 1035 fell to LB and 65-dma
June 1943 fell 1/2 way from
ma to lb
Dec 1945 fell 1/2 way from ma to LB and reversed at 65-dma
July 1947 fell gradually 4% to 1/2 to LB
Nov 1949 fell just below 21-dma and rallied strongly.
Oct 1951 fell 7% just and below 4% lower band
Jan 1955 fell 1/2 way from ma
to LB and rebounded quickly
Jul 1955 fell 1/2 way from ma to LB and quickly recovered.
March 1961 fell to ma
June 1963 fell 1/2 way from
ma to LB
DIA - Both Opening and CLosing Power Are Still
Rising.
SPY - SELL
- Professional BUY/SELL Power Uptrend Break after NC of NH
QQQQ
Important Notice: Redistribution of any text
or concepts here is a violation of copyright laws. This is valuable intellectual
property.
All violators will be subject to legal action. Please visit www.tigersoft.com Goggle TigerSoft and a technical subject, to get
additional examples and a further discussion of concepts and terms used here.
See also our Books for sale. .
(C) 2010 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5-day DJI Chart - 4/18/2010 Breakout Advance.
Daily NYSE 47 New Highs - NYSE 9 New Lows
No longer bullish.
Daily NASDAQ 59 new highs -
NASDAQ 5 new lows. Bullish.
So long as the ratio of new highs to
new lows is 10:1, it's hard to predict a significant
decline. New lows exceeding new highs within 4 days of making a new DJI high,
on the other hand is very bearish.
===================================================================================
===================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/15/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
With Peerless still on a Buy, the A/D Lines still rising for nearly all the important
groups
we look at and the Closing Power for the DIA, SPY and QQQQ each still in an uptrend,
I think we have to continue to let the market run. Admittedly, the quality of some
of
stocks rallying leaves something to be diesired. But "cats and dogs"
rallies can last 12
months, and also continue for a few months after the DJI has topped out. That gives
another 2-6 months, maybe more, to play them. See this uptrending A/D Line below.
Our universe here is the data base LOWPRICE.exe on TigerSoft's data page. When
this A/D Line is broken, we will will have to start to back off them quickly.
For now,
their A/D Line uptrend line is intact.
WATCH LOWPRICE STOCKS' A/D LINE
The market's momentum here has taken on a life of its own, I think. Folks that have
missed the rally are waiting for pull-backs to buy. I think the DC-Wall Street Power
Elite
that believes that a bull market will bring about an economic recovery and eventual
full employment will be proven wrong this time. But that misses the point.
They are
clearly in contrrol now. They believe that this highly Fed pumped-up,
program-trading-manipulated
market is their best and only real choice, given their self-interested vantantge point
that
most jobs not created by the private sector are illegitimate. Given their control
and
determination, higher prices probably lie ahead, until somethng unexpected occurs.
Before a big drop, of more than 8%, in the DJIA, there will probably be much bigger
breadth and Accumulation Index divergences than the small ones seen now.
High Long-Term Accumulation Stocks
In this environment, it usually works to buy the very, very highest Accumulation Index
stocks
and give them every chance to show why they are being heavily bought by insiders and
professionals. The TigerSoft Index chart of them here shows their performance
for the past
year. Many of the 15 stocks that comprise this index should go much higher, and
probably with
only minor pull-backs as the high Accumulation index readings. Such high AI/200
values,
pver 195, usually show that big buyers are in the wings in these stocks who are ready to
support them on most pullbacks. Here are the
highest AI/200 stocks' charts. They are
ARTC, IGTE, OGE, ATRM, DFT, EPAY, FOSL, G, LCUT, MSPD, QPSA, SOG, SMCI,
BITS and VRX.
Tiger Index of Highest Long-Term Accumulation Stocks
WHEN TO SELL
That does not mean you won't want to sell over-extended stocks (and there are a lot of
them) that:
(1) are very over-extended that break their CLosing Power uptrennds,
(2) that then drop their Accumulation Index below their 21-day ma or
(3) show negative Accumulation,
(4) make false breakouts,
(5) form head and shoulders tops with weak Accumulation on the right shoulder,
(6) drop below their 65-day ma with negative Accumulation and/or
(7) have their 65-day ma turn down.
I show tonight these rules applied to
Chinese stocks this past year. Chinese stocks are
wild and speculative. We watch them also because Chinese money is a force in its own
right now and a breaking of the Chinese Stocks' recovery's uptrend-line may spill over
and affect the US markets and others. Presently, despite the spectacular rise of
BIDU,
the Tiger Index of Chinese Stocks seems to have topped out and shows a declining
A/D Line.
Tiger Index of Chinese Stocks
|====================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/14/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
(Summary:) There is no easy way to get aboard a speeding train.
But you should
be in this market. Even just buying SPY is probably a good idea. You can
always sell
when Peerless gives a Sell or trade it with Tiger's Closing Power. LCUT is
clearly the best stock we can find now. Buy a little and more on a 10% decline,
and hold
until there is a Peerless Sell.
Wall Street is clearly happy that window-dressing regulations and changes will be
instituted by the Obama Administration and the Democrats who do control Congress,
despite filibuster threats...
There is no indication that Glass-Steagall will be restored or that there will be a
windfall
profits tax on Wall Street executives. Pay limitations for Wall Street executives is
going nowhere. Higher taxes on mechanical high-frequency trading is not even
mentioned.
No one challenges Rubin (of Citigroup) and Killinger (of WAMU) when they deny that
they knew they had helped created a bubble back in 2006 and 2007, by mentioning the
fact that they sold out their shares at the top.
.
Nothing is being done to take away Goldman's privileges at the Federal Reserve
even though it uses the money for speculation not for commercial banking. This
should come as no surprise to our readers. In return, GS has apparently agreed
to help rig higher and higher stock prices. GS rose 5.67 today and is with 6 points
of reaching its September 2009 highs. Go to the Yahoo Message board for GS.
Look at the number of complainers that talk about how manipulated the marke is.
They would do better understanding the power of the Power Elite that are making this
happen. Who is going to successfully challenge a triumvirate made up of the
President,
the Federal Reserve and Goldman-JPM? Not even George Soros?
Wall Street is on its best behavior. The parallels are close to 1988-1989.
In October 1987 Wall Street's out-of-control computerized trading brought on a 33%
plunge in 3 weeks. It was all artificial. 1988 rose steadily. 1989 saw a
steep 9 month
advance. This parallel would suggest we have just gone through the 12 months of
a steady rise, now it is time for a take-off, an acceleration upwards. Compare the
levels
of Tiger's Accumulation Index in 1989 with it levels now. The present rally shows
a market under even more Accumulation and a market presumably in even tighter
strong hands. More of the time, the Accumulation Index has recently been above +.25
than in 1988-1989
Compare
the Level of Accumulation in early 1989 with That Today
So, far, so good. The Tiger breadth, Accumulation and Public-vs-Professional
buying indicators each support this view. Before a significant decline is likely,
there should be a divergence between prices and these indicators. There is none.
Lots of folks have missed this speeding train. Most will wait for a dip to buy.
That could easily be at still higher prices in a month, the way the current action looks.
WHAT TO DO? IS IT TOO LATE TO GET ABOARD THIS SPEEDING TRAIN?
Hard to say. Buy SPY and use Peerless.... The track record since 1993
is solid.
Peerless Buys/Sells +30% Annualized
Return on SPY since 1993.
Buying the highest Accumulation stocks with high Accumulation levels for the last
two months also seems a good way to go. We are looking for stocks with an AI/200 score
above 150, an IP21 level above .45 (insider buying) and both Opening and
Professional-CLosing
Power rising. They should not have recently jumped up big in one day on news.
Here are
some ideas. "Gain-(P-L)" shows the gains trading on the long side only
using the Peerless
Buys and Sells. LCUT is still my favorite.
AI/200 IP21 GAIN(P-L)
Comments
------------ --------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRE
150 .47
+55% Superb- above
yearly resistance lines.
FXO
160 .45
+51%
Closing Power is not making 12 mo highs
G
17.99 198 .54
+39% Looks good - slow
moving, though.
INZ 21.96 150
.53
+28% Closing
Power is not making 12 mo highs
LCUT 13.76 200
.55 +276%
Superb Running
wildly up.
http://www.lifetimebrands.com 30 is all-time high,
MUI 14.24 173
.59. +20%
Slow moving.
Blackrock Muni
SCI 9.61
156
.49 +106% Superb. Polite - declines are
all shallow.
45 is all-time high
A dying business - Service
Corporation International provides
deathcare products and services in the United States, Canada, and
Germany. Its funeral service and cemetery operations consist of
funeral service locations, cemeteries, funeral service/cemetery combination
locations, crematoria, and related businesses.
SDY 50.54 179
.62 +40%
Superb
VOE 50.88 184
.46 +59%
Superb Vanguard
Mid-Cap Value 62-ATH
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/13/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
The DJI refused to sell off. Down stock volume was bearishly above up-stock volume.
As the April 15th tax deadline approaches, I'm surprised there is not more selling and
profit-taking. The DJI, the NASDAQ and the SP-500 are at all at their upper
channel resistance-lines. So, it is not clear which
stocks will power these averages higher.
Intel reported "knock out" earnings after the close. That will boost tech
stocks tomorrow,
especially in the QQQQ. But it will take more. And it's not clear where
that will come
from. Financials turned down, as Obama politely asked the Senate now to water-down
the financial reform bill too much.
A further rally woithout a pullback seems hard to expect. I say this having looked
also "
at the high accumulation breakouts, most of which look extended. Interest-rate
plays among
bond funds are the exception. But ddefensive money goes into them. Note: if there is
a
retreat, it will very likely be shallow. The NYSE A/D Line and ETFs' CLosing Power
Lines
are all uptrending still.
No New Stocks Qualify as Explosive Super Stocks" Buys Tonight.
128 stocks qualified today as making high IP21 new new highs (above +.25).
These are the stocks on our data page in the NHCONF file.
18 of these had IP21s (current levels of Accumulation) over +.45 and
9 of these were in the vertically-up, bullish environment where both Opening
and Closing Power are rising. Late in an advance I would want the Tiger
AI//200 to be above 170, even 175 for new buys. A high A/I 200 shows
high levels of longer term accumulation. This means if the stock were to decline,
it is more apt toquickly find buyers. That there are not more stocks that meet
these qualifying conditions should make us pause and just watch now.
IP21 OpnPwer:ClosPwer
ATSG 5.04 .48
UU
ATSG has already advanced from 2 to 6 since mid March.
CECE 5.44 .49
UU
CECE had already risen from 3.75 to 5.5 since mid March
DLN 43.5 .51
UU DLN shows a lagging CLosing Power.
DSWL 5.31 .56
UU
DSWL made a new by exceeding 5. AI/200 =only 129
FRM 5.4 .46
DU
DSWL made a new by exceeding 5. AI/200 =only 92
FUN 14.37 .48
DU
AI/200=139
GCS 8.91 .50
?U
AI/200=105
HRP 8.2 .47
DU
AI/200=132
IAH 63.29 .47
DU
AI/200=121
INZ 21.85 .46
UU
AI/200=150 ING GROEP PERP DE very thin.
lagging CLosing Power.
BULLISH JOF
9.46 .56
UU
AI/200=163 But breakout was at 8.5 So, over-extended.
Japanese PTC fund.
JOSB 60.74 .64
UU
AI/200=134. JOS. A BANK.
NPSP 5.46 .46
DU
AI/200=90. Lagging CLosing Power.
NSR 26.6 .51
DU
AI/200=143. 25 was recent resistance
SDY 50.2 .61
DU
AI.200=178 SPDR S&P Div.
TPGI 4.02 .46
DU
AI/200=137
VRS 4.64 .45
U!U AI/200=134 High Volume breakout at 4.
WEDC 43.43 .58
UU
AI/200=126 Already up from 5 to 7 in one day a week ago.
Watch CTSH in the QQQQ and INTC in the DJI, QQQQ and SPY.
==================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/12/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
Gold's Internal Strength Is A Warning That The Rally in Stocks Will
Be Limited.
Stay long is our recommendation. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 73% of the time
in the week following April 12th. In fact, the DJI rallied 63% of the time in the
month after April 12th.
Volume was low, as usual. But the move past 11000 showed good breadth and the
internals have not slipped so much down from their previous highs to make a decline back
to
the lower band a high probability. The Closing Power uptrends are still
rising.
I
went through about 250 of the SP-500 stocks to see if there are any head and shoulders
patterns among their charts. There were none, except AA's. Oil, retail and
financial
stocks, particularly, are quite strong.
By my
thesis, the strength in the bank stocks is intentional on the part of the Fed and the
Obama
Administration. Sadly, the Power Elite finds it impossible to help their banker
friends and
also
create Main Street jobs directly. That is a contradiction that only they seem to
still
deny.
They must gamble that the rising stock market will give the rich and the
surviving middle class enough extra money to boost consumer demand. But will what
extra
they
buy really be made in America?
Gold, Bankers and Stocks
The
Power Elite's role now in propping up the Dollar would be nice to get data on.
They
do seem now to prefer a strong Dollar, which especially helps the big US banks
to
keep and attract deposits. My guess is that the Fed-Administration-Banker
triumvirate
are
probably shorting Gold to discourage a run upwards in it. Again no information is
available. A Goldman man runs the Commodities regulatory agency. He will not
permit
big
short sale positions to be disclosed publicly. Only big long positions must be
revealed.
How
long will the FED-ADM team succeed in holding down Gold? Look at all the
Accumulation in
the
perpetual contract for Gold (GO1620). (I believe the futures market in Gold is more
important and a better predictor than GLD. It seems likely that GLD represents
public
buying or selling, while the trading in Gold futures is done by big profesionals. )
I
keep remembering how from 1977 to 1980 when Democrats took over from Republicans
and
unemployment was very high, Gold quintupled even as the Fed raised rates steeply.
But
there are other President-Democrats. FDR ended all speculation in Gold. But,
Obama is
not
only no FDR, he is also no Carter. I think he is trying to be more like Clinton.
In
financial matters, Clinton took financial marching orders from Greenspan, Rubin and
Summers,
all
representatives of Wall Street. Under Clinton, Gold first rose from 330 to 420 and
held there
until
1996. Then it began a long slide downward to 250 in late 1999, as stocks became
a
much better investment. If stocks were presently at the start of a 5
year advance,
as in
1995, Gold would be in a decline or showing red Distribution from TigerSoft.
That
it now shows so much Accumulation, suggests that Wall Street's efforts to rekindle
a
long bull market will probably not be successful.
GOLD IS NOW UNDER HEAVY ACCUMULATION
If
Gold were about to go into a long decline -thereby showing stocks would rally much
further - one would think it
would show heavy red distribution, as it did in 1996 when it
was starting a four year
decline.
STOCKS
Generally,
it is best to focus on high AI/200 stocks with the market up nearly 6%
since the
first of the year. Then look for high current Accumulation (IP21) and rising
Cloning
Powers.
Group:
Stocks with Bullish Internals
========
=============================
SP-500 - D -
41.18 (AI/200=188, IP21>.25 )
NASD-100 LNCR - 47.18
(AI/200=178, IP21>.25)
FAST - 51.90 (AI/200=140. IP21>.25)
NHCONF LCUT -
13.54 (AI/200=200. IP21>.48)
VOE - 50.23 (AI/200=184, IP21=.43
PHT - 16.44 (AI/200=199, IP21=.26
LNCR - 47.18 (AI/200=178, IP21=.32)
AIG - Turnaround
Look at AIG's chart below. You can see how important the 65-dma was and how the
Closing Power's trendbreaks have timed the stock's turns superbly. The AI/200
has
been very negative for a year. Eventually, the stock will decline. At least,
the
is
usually true with stocks showing so much red Distribution.
==================================================================================
==================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/9/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
The 10,000 Barrier Almost Overcome
The DJI is
challenging the 11000 psychological resistance. This actually seems to be
the top of
the resistance zone that crumbled in 2008 when Paulson demanded $800,000,000
for his
Wall Street buddies, "or else". The shock of that collapsed the market
below
the
attempted 10600-11000 support. As we all know, broken support becomes resistance.
It is that
resistance which the DJI has been eating up for the last few months. It seems
that now
the resistance may be nearly all eaten up. This is difficult to assess, admittedly,
and volume
has been low. Nevertheless, it now looks like the DJI is close finally to surpass
the
rest of the
10600-11000 resistance. With Peerless on a Buy and the NYSE A/D and CLosing Power
Lines still
uptrending, we have to remain bullish. I think I am correct that the Power Elite
wants,
almost desperately, for the rally to continue. The alternative, with unemployment
still so
high, is too grim. 4/8/2010 12000 or Bust. The
Power Elite's Biggest Gamble of All"
2008: DJIA's -10600-11000 Resistance Has Been A Barrier to DJI's Advance in 2010.
I think that the operative Peerless Buy signal should be respected. Confidence in
Peerless
grew for me
as I researched this weekend my new study of Peerless and trading SPY.
In
particular, besides great gains on the SPY using Peerless, I noticed that after a
+30% Annualized
Return on SPY since 1993.
big
advance since 1993, when a long trade on the SPY was up more than 8.4%, as now,
the odds
have been good (10 of 16) that SPY will rise still more and achieve a gain of more
than 13%
before the next Sell. In the other 6 cases, the SPY could not rise to a gain
of more
than 11.9%.
That might take the DJI only to 10200. Should this less bullish scenario play
out, it is
still worth noting that only shallow declines followed the next Sell in these 5 cases:
+2.6%,
+0.5%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +5.7%. So, the conclusion I reach is that the odds are
perhaps 60%
that the DJI will keep rising meaningfully. But if there is a Sell signal soon,
only a
shallow decline will follow.
Cases where the SPY Gained more than 8.4% aon a Buy: 1993-2010
2/27/1996 Sell S1 +3.3% decline after earlier +43.7%
rally
4/22/1997 Sell S9 -6.8% rally aftter +13.1% rally
9/18/1997 Sell S12 +2.3% decline after +14.1% rally
4/28/1998 Sell S15 +12.4% decline after +16.4% rally
6/18/1999 Sell S12 +2.8% decline after 36.0% rally.
- 12/28/1999 Sell S9 +2.6% decline after 11.9%
rally - minor additional rally
- 10/10/2001 Sell S9 +0.5% decline after 8.5% rally. - minor additional rally
10/15/2003 Sell S4 -1.3% rally after 17.9% rally.
- 2/11/2004 Sell S15 +4.7% decline after 9.4% rally. - minor additional rally
- 12/28/2004 Sell S8 +4.4% decline after 9.6% rally. -
minor additional rally
5/8/2006 Sell S9 +5.4% decline after +14.4%
rally.
1/5/2007 Sell S4 +2.1% decline after +13.4%
rally.
- 7/17/2007 Sell S9 +5.7% decline after 11.8% rally. - minor additional rally
- 3/27/2009 Sell S5 -4.4% rally decline after a
9.3% rally. - minor additional rally
6/9/2009 Sell S8 +5.6% decline after a +14.6%
rally.
10/21/2009 Sell S12 -1.9% rally after a 20.0% rally.
Current rally is +8.5%/
-------- PEERLESS SIGNALS ON DJIA ---------
4/9/2010 10997 la/21-dma= 1.016
21dma-roc = .474 P=
+323 Pch= 1 IP21= .117 V = 26 Opct
= .426
21dma-roc >.70 shows unusual momentum. A reversal down is
more unusual.
More information on back-testing this soon.
IP21 (Current Accum.) >.25 make it harder for a downwards reversal.
SP-500 - Closing Power is making
a new high.
QQQQ - - Closing Power is making a new high.
DIA - - Closing Power is making a new
high.
=================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/8/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy
The
Triumvirate-Power Elite (the
FED, Obama and Big Wall Street banks) have gambled big
that they can keep the stock market rising. Given
their financial orthodoxy, perspectives
and self interests, they really have no other alternative.
Their control seems unshaken
by the current blue-ribbon panel looking into the causes of
the 2007-2009 Crash and who is
to individually blame. The "Power Elite"
(this is easier to spell!) want to demonstrate that
they are very much in control. One way to do
this was to keep Goldman Sachs rallying.
Another is to turn up the market and move it past the
psychological resistance of 11000.
See - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/April-9-2010/Index.html
Below are the charts of Goldman,
DIA and QQQQ, No Closing Power sells seem
possible tomorrow, in that it would take a very weak close
after a very strong opening to
break the Closing Power uptrends. 11000 is a good
target to bring in more trading volume.
That is not lost on Wall Street.
.
INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
Looking
at the Tiger data base NHCONF and running the bullish screen, it is clear
that insiders and professionals are
still pushing upwards high Accumulation stocks.
Use TigerSoft and view the charts of G, PHT, CHGY, MRT, HYT, RT, VCBI
=================================================================================
HOTLINE - 4/7/2010 Peerless
Remains on A Buy
We still have no new Peerless Sell.
The A/D Line uptrend is intact. Since the Closing Power
for the QQQQ did not confirm the recent
new highs,. we will consider any break in its
uptrendline to be a short-term sell.
Today, I can still find more stocks that look like
they will
rally
than fall. But prudence probably dictates taking some profits in stocks
not showing
high or lengthy blue Accumulation.
After all, 11000 is a logical point for intense resistance.
Bearishly, volume keeps rising on
down-days, too. So, our Stocks' Hotline sold advised
selling a few lower AI/200 stocks.
I have argued that what makes this market so
unusual is the amount of MONEY the Fed is
pumping into it. It is as though all the
big players have been provided trillions in capital, as long
as they use the money to buy, not make cheaper
business, home or personal loans. I don't
think this strategy of the Financial-Politcal
Power Elite will change on its own until the
DJI is even higher. As long as the Dollar
does not collapse, the Fed will probably continue
to keep rates very low. A re-valuation
upwards of the Chinese currency might change
this. But for now, the Dollar's Tiger
chart has all "bullish" notations and its Closing
Power is in an uptrend.
Wall Street's failures and excesses were the
subject today of the "FInancial Crisis Inquiry
Commission" http://www.fcic.gov/hearings/ Its chairman
is Phil Angelides, former
California
State Treasurer interbiewed Greenspan and
Rubin. http://www.fcic.gov/reports/
Greenspan
says "I was wrong 30% of the time"?
Ex-Citi
exec says he warned Rubin on mortgage risk
Ex-Citi
executives face questions on mortgages
Such talk, I think, caused the decline
today.
But take heart, the market would
have crashed wide open, if this panel were really about
to do its job. The DJIA would have fallen
500 points is the panel was moving to recommend:
1) a separation of investing and commerecial banks functions into different
insttitutions'
2) the break-up of the too-big-to-fail banks,
3) the imposition of a stiff windfall tax on Wall Street's big bonus executives
in the bail-out firms,
4) a challenge to the Fed's secrecy in the matter of the trillions in bank bailouts and
5) clear refutation of those who would give the Fed even more powers vis-a-vis banks.
I think we can safely bet that there will
be no expose of the secret arrangement between
the Administration, the Fed and Wall
Street Banks, in providing these banks trillions from
taxpayers in return for worthless
toxic debt collateral. There is also very little chance that
anyone will challenge the Federal
Reserve, Greenspan, Bernanke or Bernanke for being
far too chummy with the very
bankers that caused the Crash. I think that I can guarantee
no one on this panel will attack their
central bankers' perspective as being unable to conceive
of economic growth that does not depend
first on Wall Street handouts and a Wall Street
bull market. Lastly, I would bet
that none will attack the central bankers' perspective that
conveniently forgets how dangerously
undemocratic the highly massive and monopolistic
Wall Street banks are as they push around
politicians of both parties with millions and
millions of dollars in what are politely
called "campaign contributions"
That's why Goldman Sachs rose today and
why such talk as was heard today will NOT much
dampen the spirit of the bulls.
The most
succinct exposition and summation on how Wall Street and the Federal Reserve
are
boosting stocks by risking a bigger bubble than in 2000 for stocks, 2004 for housing and
2008
for oil, is offered today by Dylan Ratigan.
DIA - ETF for DJIA
Closing Power
Uptrend - violated
Bullishly both Opening & CLosing Power are
rising (above their rising 21-dma).
TIGER INDEX OF SP-500 and SPY
Both Opening and Closing
Powers are rising.
This suggests we are in a vertical ascent phase.
Closing Power-Percent - violated its
uptrendline.
The CP
and CPP have not confirmed the recent highs.
87% of the SP-500 stocks are above their 65-dma.
TIGER QQQQ and INDEX OF
NASDAQ-100
QQQQ - All Bullish
Closing Power Percent is not confirming the advance, could easily break its
uptrend-line.
and could be forming a bearish Closing Power head and
shoulders..
86% of the NASDAQ-100 stocks are above their 65-dma.
That uptrend has been slightly violated.
==================================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/6/2010 Peerless Remains Bullish....
11000 on the DJI is the logical place for sellers to concentrate
their sell orders,
if they want to take
profits or get out even. But, we have no signs that there will
be more than a very
shallpw decline, if there is a retreat. In two days, we will have
seen a 13 month rally
from the March 9th, 2009 bottom. Bull markets that last 12 moonths
this long are much more
likely (2:1) to last at least 3 additonal months than suffer
an 8% or more decline.
Breadth remains very bullish. Both Opening and Closing
Power are rising for the
biggest ETFs. Peerless remains on a Buy. There is no indication
that interest rates will be
raised. Interest sensitive stocks are among the best performing
and highest accumulation
groups. Meanwhile, other high accumulation stocks that make new
highs are spectacularly
strong and there are a lot of such stocks. Below is a composite of
more than 200 of them.
"Enjoy the ride". I have to say.
Index of High Accumulation New Highs
=============================================================================
HOTLINE -
4/5/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
Speculative fervor continues to build.
We have no reason to sell. This is one of those times when we want to let our
profits run. Peerless relies
on automatic signals, derived mostly from
breadth indicators and Tiger's
Accumulation Index. The public is pushing up openings
now. Closings are neutral,
not bearish. Both Openings and Closing Powers are
rising. This shows the market is in
verticle ascent. I would, for now disregard other
normally useful tools, like the
MACD, CCI and RSI, whose non-confirmations of
new highs are sometimes very
premature in vertical ascent markets.
The biggest
mistake the Peerless automatic signals have made since 1981 was showing
premature Sell S8 and S12 Sell signals in
first quarter of 1999. In practice, this was easily
overriden by our Hotline because I
allowed for the special strength of the market at all-time
highs and we could see all the stocks
that showed powerful Accumulation on new highs.
I mention this for three reasons.
First, always be careful about
standing in front of a herd of bulls. Expect execess.
The QQQQ's Closing Power was wrong
for 3 months in early 2000. It was a lot easier
to ride some speculative
"bubble" stocks than resist the trend by going short, or
even sitting ont he sidelines.
Second, always be open to new
ideas. We have unprecedented collusion now between
an inexperienced,
semi-figurehead President, the Federal Reserve and the biggest Wall Street
banks. If they want the
market to go up, accept that it probably will.
Why the stock market keeps going up and up?
The Secret Deal Obama, The Fed and Wall Street Seem To Have
Reached.
I still remember reading in high school Emerson's essay "Self Reliance how a
"foolish consistency
is the hobgoblin of little
minds". (A radical idea for a public high school?). So, regarding the
need to keep an open mind, and not
be a victim of a foolish consistency, I keep checking
the worst of the Peerless signals.
It amounted to standing in front of a herd of bulls.
Today, I discovered something new
about this period from February to May 1999. This
period every four years, in the
year before a Presidential Election year have always been
either neutral or strong since
1927. As it turns out, cancelling Sell S9s in 1935, 1959, 1967
and 1999 during these three months
impoves our model quite a bit. Recalling Emerson,
a new Peerless will do this.
A new "SuperImpose DJIA saved signals" file will be provide
these results. The results
gotten trading the DJIA, SPY and QQQQ with this revised
Peerless since 1994 will be posted
in a few days. The on-line-book will show you these
details later this week.
Thirdly, TigerSoft's
Accumulation Index has never worked better. I say this out of pride
but also because there's a
message in this that we should accept or, at least carefully
consider. I take
it to be very bullish today that we see a large number of high Accumulation
breakouts. The 11000
barrier on the DJIA may not hold the general market back. There
were more than 25 new highs
tonight with recent or current Accumulation bulges over
+.45. See ALL the graphs of these high Accumulation breakouts
here.
In recognition of the proven
power of Accumulation Index bulges past +.45, to signify
key insider buying, the
revised Peerless will henceforth for stocks show a horizontal like
at the +.45 level.
You can see this "insider trading threshold: in the sample breakouts
shown just below.
Charts of high Accumulation new highs: PSMT, G, AGL, PXD and VRX
 |
===============================================================================================
HOTLINE - 4/1/2010 Another Good
Day for the Rally. Notice the Rotation
The Nasdaq and
low-priced stocks took a day off, as traders noted the breakout by Crude Oil (below)
and bought the best of the oil stocks. Breakouts like this annul red Sell signals based on
Stochastics and appreciate the value of trading mainly in
the direction of Peerless. Normally,
we recommend breakouts to be in the strongest stocks.
But at some point these are too
far extended and we should consider buying stocks showing
Buys based on their
crossing back above the 65-day ma with positive
Accumulation. (Gold is moved above
at level, too, today, but shows negative Accumulation.
Not surprisingly, the Dollar fell,
though its CLosing Power is still above its uptrend-line
and so may still recover. XOM
and CVX look like good long trades, as mentioned yesterday.
That will help boost the
DJIA. I looked at lots of stocks tonight and
except for PFE in the DJI, I do not see any
ahowing significant danger of a pullback, i.e. head and
shoulders patterns, negative
non-confirmations of new highs or breaks of their 65-dma.
CRUDE OIL NEW HIGH - TODAY.
Of
course, in this market traders are still bidding up a number of the high accumulation
breakouts: HUSA, CRME (shown below) and JEF, JOF, VRX and ZQX which met our
"explosive super stocks" breakout
requirements. The new downloads NHCONF and ACCUMVER
should be a great source for these stocks.
Screen for Bullish, BOTHUP, B12, B10 and B20
using ANALYSIS from PEERCOMM.
JOF, JEQ and
HUSA
===========================================================================================
3/31/2010
Peerless Remains on A Buy. Speculative Low Priced Stocks Remain Hot
The Opening and
Closing Powers are both rising for the QQQQ, SPY, DIA and IWM.
Odds favor a Pull-Back to just below the DJIA's 21-day ma, a
decline of about 2% down from here
and then a recovery to new highs. The specualtive strength
in the market barely cooled down
today on today's mild sell-off. A number of stocks made
confirmed new highs, showing an
IP21 greater than +.25. Here
are some of the best of their charts.
What keeps me bullish are a powerful technicals and a powerful
political trimverate:
1) We have no new Peerless Sell in this the 12th month of the
advance without an 8% decline;
2) Breadth remains very good, despite the last two days and the
market is now attracting the public,
judging from the rising A/D Line and surge of interest in thin
low-priced stocks.
3) The market is being pushed up by an unbeatable (in the
short-run) political-financial trimverate,
the President = Treasury Secretary, the Federal Reserve Chairman
and monopoly Wall Street
bankers, like Goldman Sachs.
This triumverate wants the public in the market for different
reasons. They believe business
confidence will be eventually be restored if they can get the
stock market back above
12000, even 14000. They believe that stock market is less a
reflection of corporate earning
expectations than an automatic predictor and precursor/promoter
of furure corporate earnings.
They believe rising stock prices will create new business
ventures and jobs. But where? In the USA?
They neglect that another crash after a bigger bubble is burst
will wipe out many more of the
surviving middle class who are now being enticed into this
market's specualtive phase.
How much will this induced and artificial investment boom address
the profound need for the
rebuilding of the American infrastructure and create and restrore
American manufacturing jobs?
This and the even greater conccentration of wealth and power that
will result GUARANTEES
eventually another financial collapse. The powers that be seem to
have learned nothing from the
last collapse. Want proof? Watch what happens to
financial reform in Congress!
Perhaps, because they know that a new Crash is a real
possibility, they will do all in their
power to keep the market rallying. I have written for a
year that Obama uses rhetoric to
satisfy his progressive base, all the while giving more and more
to boost to Wall Street and
big corporations. His concessions today to the "drill,
baby, drill crowd" are more proof of
how determined, pehaps desperately so, he is to keep this rally
allive. Oil stocks make up a big
part of the DJIA and SP-500: CVX and XOM.
Back to Technicals
The IWM shows a red Sell from a 14-day Stochastic-K Line.
This system (shown by the red signals)
has gained 43.4% for the last year. That should earn it
some respect. IWM/s Closing Power has
broken its uptrend. Its OBV, Relative Strength and
Accumulation Index have lost their "bullish"
status.
What If The Market Weakens Next Much More?
In that case, we will see a big increase in the number of stocks
that form head and shoulders patterns,
that fall below key support levels, break their 65-day ma with
negative IP21 (current Accumulation
Index readings) and then have their 65-day ma turn down.
New Bearish Tiger Data Downloads
See When Selling A High Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on
Weakness Is A Good Strategy.
This offers
TigerSoft's rules to to sell swiftly falling "super" stocks. Beyond this,
I will start to place
on our Tiger Data Page screenings of all stocks for bearish
conditions each night. A good place
to start with be to create directories of stocks to
download each night with all stocks closing
below the 65-day ma with a negative Accumulation Index AND
also for a separate Tiger directory
all stocks below a newly falling-65 say ma, as long as
their Accumulation Index is below +.25.
================================================================================
3/30/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy. Speculative Low Priced
Stocks Remain Hot
The internal strength indicators are still too strong to predict
anything more than
a decline to the 21-day ma. The DJI is eating up the supply
of stock at 11000. Both
the Opening and Closing Powers remain in uptrends.
The upward power in the stocks showing the highest Accumulation
and highest
momentum is nothing short of amazing now. Momentum like
this draws the
public into the market. The result is that Opening Power is
now stronger
than CLosing Power. The period 1999-2000 shows that this
condition can last
for 3 months. A recognizeable top pattern is also likely to
occur, as well as
a Peerless Sell, at the top.
So, instead of telling the market to go
down, because we do not like Fed rigged
markets and we think the economy is still in deep trouble, I
would suggest working
with the trends of the stongest high AI/200 stocks and
trade their Closing Power uptrends
on the long side. The next decline to the 21-day ma will
likely be a good trading
Buy, just as it is with all powerfully uptrending stocks showing
high Accumulation.
The NASDAQ now shows a very high level of positive Accumulation.
Its AI/200
level is 188. Hesitation and more new new highs is what
this strength has historically
shown until there is a Peerless sell.
ISSI -
Typical Low-Priced Rocket-Stock - ISSI was 40 back in 2000.
Tahiti Anyone?
Tomorrow will end the first
quarter. Followers of our Tahiti
system, as orginally
set forth, simply buy the highest AI/200 (the count of the number
of days with positive
Accumulation for the last 200 days) stock at the end of the
quarter and hold 21-months.
This system which was meant to be used with the DJIA, but could
and should be used
with other groups of stocks, like the SP-500 (a much larger
universe), the NASDAQ-100,
all medical and all oil stocks.
See their charts here. HPQ now shows the highest AI/200
value in the DJI and just made 5 year high, too.
HPQ
53.26 highest AI/200 stock in DJIA
DTE
45.38 highest AI/200 stock in SP-500
CHKP
34.8 highest AI/200 stock in NASDAQ-100
ARTC
29.84 highest AI/200 healthcare stock
MWE
31.61 highest AI/200 oil stock
=================================================================================
3/29/2010 Hotline Buy B17/ B10 - Give The DJI More
Chance to Reach 11000.
All
the reasons that I posted last week for still being bullish still pertain. It is
true that
the
Closing Power uptrends could be significantly violated on a reversal down
from
a stong opening tomorrow. Given the upwards momentum, I doubt if that would
bring
a DJI decline of much more than 2.2%, slightly below the rising 21-day ma.
More
and more signs show a pattern of higher openings. That suggests overseas and
public buying.
STOCKS
I am
starting to post the data for new yearly highs with an IP21 (current AI) reading
above
.25 at some point in the last month. Below are some of the better ones
tonight. Apply the principles of an augmented B24 to these and you should do well.
Either look at the "bullish", "both up" or "unusual volume"
flags with these stocks
to
find very good candidates to sue the rules in Explosive Super Stocks.
WHEN TO SELL HOT STOCKS -
When Selling A High Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on Weakness Is A
Good Strategy.
Back testing shows that these high Accumulation stocks making new highs
are
often superb BUYS for an aggressive investor who is willing also to:
1) Sell on a Peerless Sell,
2) if the stock breaks below its 65-day ma with negative AI readings or
3) when the 65-dma then turns down.
I am asked why sell such a stock in a strong general market. "The rising
market's tide
will
lift all boats". Sadly, this is not true. Insider can make mistakes.
And so will we
if we
do not have a "Plan B". The reason is that we just have to have some
insurance
against a bigger decline. Moreover, we can usually find a better stock to
replace
the
one we are selling. This new stock is apt to do better. Alternatively,
we can also promise
ourselves when we sell this stock that we will buy it right back if it gets back above
the
rising 65-dma with good internals. If you are still resistant to taking a loss
quickly,
wait
for the stock's 65-dma to turn down to sell. That will save some situations.
But
this
can also increase the loss on a stock that cannot rally. Here is a link showing
some
high Accumulation stocks that last year did decline from their 65-day ma
and
did not turn back up from it even though the general market has been strong.
Please read the unpublished Blog I did tonight.
When Selling A High
Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on Weakness Is A Good Strategy.
====================================================================================
3/25/2010 Buy B17/ B10 - Give The Market More Chance to Advance.
The DJI has now risen 12.5 months without an 8% correction. Since 1929, there
were three other big advances that
lasted nearly exactly as long as the present advance
and then started a decline of more
than 8%. But in 11 cases the DJI continued to move
higher. Based on the behavior of
longduration bull markets, I would have to say
these advances take on a life of
their own. They are self-perpetuating. We are nearing that
stage. Based on the history of
these long-duration advances, if the DJI were to advance
for another month, the odds would
be 8:3 that it can rally for, at least, 3 months after that.
Length of Long Rallies in Time
12-13 months
1936 (12.5). 1961 (12.5), 2006 (12.5)
13-13.5 month
1973 (13.5)
14-14.5 months 1943
(14.5)
15-15.5 months
1994 (15.5)
16-19.5 months
1946 (17.5), 1959 (19.5) 1984 (17). 1992 (17)
20-24 months
1955 (24). 1989 (21.5)
over 24 months
1965 (30.5). 1997 (30)
The only bearish condition we can identify presently are the break in the steep Closing
Power uptrends of the SPY, QQQQ and
DIA and the fact that the DJI is back to the point of
breakdown, 10850-11000 from
September 2008. That may bring a retreat to the rising
21-day ma. But the momentum
is clearly a factor. Until we get one or more of the following
conditions, a major Peerless Sell
signal, it is not consistent with market history to call a top here.
Even then, a decline of about 10%
would be typical in these cases. The bearish conditions
to for are:
1) a completed head and shoulders top,
2) a false breakout from above horizontal resistance,
3) a well-tested price-uptrend break or the V-Indicator is negative with the DJI at least
2%
over the 21-day ma.
Typcially there are much bigger non-confirmations of a new price high by the A/D line,
the P-Indicator and Accumulation
Index than we are presently seeing. The P-Indicator
and the Accumulation Index
typically drop to levels less than 60% of their previous highs
when making new unconfirmed highs.
STOCKS
1. Retail Apparrel
Strength.
For some reason, new health insurance rules or maybe fashion changes, a number
of retail clothing stores are
very much in favor and making new highs. The stronger
Dollar is helping these companies
buy more cheaply overseas. Higher end sales are
clearly picking up as the sotck
market rises.
The stocks I have put in this list are: AEO, ANN, BWS, BEBE, CHS, CWTR, FDO,
FINL,GIII, GES, GPS. JAS, JWN, LTD,
SHLD, SHOO, TGT, TLB, URBN, WEL, WTSLA and ZQK.
2. JOF (Japanese OTC
stocks look good)
3. Peerless has worked
very well with Indian ETFs since 1998, year after year. The world
markets seem totally
integrated now. How that will help American workers looking for
industrial jobs is not clear.
1.
Women's Apparel Stores - New Highs
 |
2. Japanese OTC Stocks Strong
While the Japanese Yen has been flat against the Dollar for six months, smaller
Japanese stocks may be starting
their own leg up. When one recalls the size of
the 1980s Japanese bull market,
JOF becomes an attractive specualtion. Their
strength reflects the same investing
emphasis on secondary stocks that exists
in the US.
 |
=========================================================================
3/25/2010
Buy B17/ B10 - Give The Market
More Chance to Advance.
There was a late market sell-off today. Only the DJI held a small gain.
The DJIA could not keep advancing into the heavy overhead supply
of stock at 10800-11000
from when Paulson appeared that Sunday night in September 2008
and gave Congress
an ultimatum to give Wall Street $800 billion or else the market
and the US economy would
drop into oblivion. A lot of people wish they had sold that
Monday morning. This 10800-11000
is clearly important resistance. But just reaching it
does not mean the market will go
into a decline. In fact, it is normal for a market moving
higher into overhead resistance
to eat up chucks of that overhead supply of stock, rest and again
move higher. We need to
see more than a failure to hold the highs to become bearish.
True - there were 459 more down than up, however. This is the second Thursday in two
weeks when breadth fell behind the DJIA. Given the momentum of
the 12 1/2 month bull market
that has not seen even a full 8% decline, we have to remain
bullish. Note, we have
no Peerless Sell signal. If we look at all the year-long
advances since 1928, there are only
two or three cases when the DJI dropped more than 8% without a
Peerless Sell. Usually,
tops occur only after the A/D Line clearly stops confirming DJI
highs.
True also - the P-Indicator is not confirming the recent highs by making a new high.
This often brings a small retreat, back to the 21-day ma, but
usually not more. It usually
takes a bigger non-confirmation to bring decline. I will
charts of all the cases of year-long
rallies since 1028 at this location, later tomorrow or this
weekend.
http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/March-25-2010/index.html
That a retreat is becoming more likely can be judged from the failure of the CLosing Power
Percent, which factors in volume, to make new highs on this
year's rally compared to last year.
Clear breaks in the uptrend are usually bearish. But
both the Opening and CLosing
Powers are above their rising 21-day ma. This
"BOTH-UP" condition is associated
with vertical ascents. That should cause us to give the
market more time to advance.
Other bullish factors: the B10 shows that support at 10800 should hold up in the
short-run. Since 1966, the DJI has risen 72.5 of the time
from the close on March 25th to
21 trading days later. The Public is not as Bullish as might be
expected at a top. Usually
we spot a top by a long series of higher openings. Lastly,
we can safely bet the FED is doing
everything it can to hold the market up until April 15th.
====================================================================================
3/24/2010 Buy B17/ B10 - A/D Lines and CLosing Powers Are still rising.
High Accumulation
Stocks still are behaving well. A San Diego medical equipment - VOLC -
company just
broke out to a new all-time high today.
Yesterday's Buy B10 is less important as a signal in itself, than it is to underscore that
the market is
still very strong. The breakout the Buy B10 reports is not from a pattern
showing three
tests of a resistance line relatively equally spaced over the last 3 months.
That is what we
want ideally to see in the price pattern for a Buy B10. The internals do
meet the
requirements for a Buy B10. The internals do not show the exceptionally
high IP21 (above
+.30) and OPct (above +.50) readings that are associated with the most
powerful B10s.
Another negative: Buy B10s in a market already well-advanced as this is
are much more apt
to gain a modest 3% to 5% more than the typical 10% seen for all Buy B10's.
Another factor to
lower our expectations is that March B10s - like our cases
presently - only
bring modest 4.3% gains, unlike Buy B10s in January and February.
whose 5 cases
average+20% gains. But there is still plenty of upwards momentum,
very fine breadth
and one other element. Buy B10s in the second year of a Presidential
cycle are quite
bullish. There have been 8 such automatic Buy B10s since 1928. Their
gains average
15.9%. See the new research
I have posted
about Buy B10s -
Buy B10 - historical research http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B10.htm
Still No Problem Finding High Accum Stocks Making New Highs
VOLC - All time high breakout today and
B12 breakout from short-term flat top.
Yahoo reports corporate insiders are selling mostly. Our indictators suggest their
associates
are buying these shares. This is often a prelude to giving more sponsorship and
publicity to the
stock. Volcano Corporation 3661 Valley Centre Drive
Suite 200 San Diego,
CA 92130
http://www.volcanotherapeutics.com
Volcano Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and
commercializes a suite of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and functional measurement (FM)
products
used in the diagnosis and treatment of vascular and structural heart disease. Its IVUS
products consist
of consoles...digital and rotational IVUS catheters, and imaging tools, including virtual
histology, IVUS tissue
characterization, and ChromaFlo stent apposition analysis; and FM offerings include
consoles and single-use
pressure and flow guide wires used to measure the pressure and flow characteristics of
blood enabling
physicians to gauge the plaque?s physiological impact on blood flow and pressure. The
company?s products
under development comprise IVUS guided therapy products, such as IVUS guided stents and
IVUS
guided coronary and peripheral balloons; forward looking IVUS for minimally invasive
diagnostic and
therapeutic applications in the coronary and peripheral vasculature; and optical coherence
tomography (OCT)
technology that allows imaging of detailed structures in the vasculature. Its ongoing
clinical studies include the
bifurcation lesion analysis and stenting, assessment of dual anti-platelet therapy with
drug-eluting stents,
and Volcano OCT image lesion analysis using intravascular optical coherence tomography. In
addition,
the company develops and manufactures micro-optical spectrometers and optical channel
monitors to
telecommunication companies. Volcano Corporation serves physicians and technicians who
perform PCI
procedures in hospitals, and other personnel who make purchasing decisions on behalf of
hospitals
through its direct sales force and distributors, as well as through supply and
distribution agreements with third
parties. As of December 31, 2009, it had an installed base of approximately 5,000 consoles
worldwide
Also:
PRST - 4.66 was a $98 stock in 1997
SFLY, RDWR and LZ show that stocks that have exceeded their parallel resistance line
are moving higher. Speculators and Insiders are still optimistically buying
very strong
stocks.
===================================================================================
3/23/2010 Buy
B17.
The DJI's upturn
accelerated. Peerless reamins on a Buy, The upwards velocity
owed technically to the fact that
both the Opening and CLosing Powers are rising.
This means the market opens higher
and closes still higher. I take this to mean that
both the Public and Professionals
are buying. That the Closing Powers made new highs
today means we should work with
newer, less steep uptrends for them.
Peerless reinforced the bulls with an automatic BUY
B10. The main significance
of this in our case is that
it posits 10750-10800 as new support. Normally, we
should see the flat and
well-tested resistance that the DJI has gone through.
A flat, thrice or more tested
resistance line is not so clear here. The result may
be that the usual immediate
vertical ascent that follows a Buy B10 may not occur
here. In addition,
11,000 is a natural round-number resistance level.
Buy B10 - historical research http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B10.htm
The rally past 10800 will
drive the bears "nuts". The A/D Line has confirmed the
move. That is very
important. Most tops occur only after the A/D Line fails to confirm
a new DJI high. So, we should
see the DJI moving higher and chewing up the
overhead supply of stock with
each rally.
Meanwhile the number of new
highs rose sharply today. Speculative, tech,
restaurant, military and
interest-rate stocks are all doing well. Concentrating
on the highest accumulation
stocks - horizontally and vertically - should
continue to pay off quite
well.
=========== RUSSELL-2000 ===================
IWM: Both Opening and CLosing
Power are rising (above their 21(dma) The Closing Power
uptrend in still rising.
3/23/2010 Buy B17, Stocks continued to soar. It's helpful to look at the
stocks
up the most today that made new highs.
It shows the technical conditions that release
and propel a stock. (Do this with
Tiger using the older Tiger Charting programs +
Ranking Results + User Set Ranking + 1 +
1. ) Here are the top 3 gainers above 3.
INCY
PZZ
GIVN
GNET
MMUS
======================================================================================
