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                   TigerSoft Freedom News Service   3/26/2010     www.tigersoft.com   
      

                                               
  Key Characteristics
                   of Year-Long Bull Markets   


                                    by William Schmidt, Ph.D. (Columbia University)
                                                       (C) 2010 All rights reserved.  Reproducing any part of this page without
                                                                        giving full acknowledgement is a copyright infringement.


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                                  Key Technical Characteristics
                           of Year-Long Bull Markets
           Not Interrupted by a Decline of More than 8%  


           Note the warnings in each of the 19 earlier cases.

       1   Failure to reach top of price channel   1922
       2   Head and Shoulders pattern    1922, 1926, 1943
       3   False Horizontal Breakout 1926, 1936
       4   Volume was much lower on final rally:  
              1922, 1926. 1936, 1943
       5   Breakdown below 4x or more well-tested uptrendline:
             1922, 1926, 1936, 1943
       6   Mutiple Peerless Sells 1936
       7   Sell S9-S12 1936
       8   Sell S9-S8  1946
       9   S9 - 1936, 1943 (six months earlier)
       10   S12 - 1936
       11  S15 - 1936
                                

    
  1.    August 25, 1921   (63.90)  to October 17, 1922 (102.60) - Double-Top and 10% decline
               Then marginal new high on March 20, 1923 (105.40) and decline to 88.50 on October 31, 1923.

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      2.    May 20, 1924 (88.30) to February 2, 1926 (158.30) - New high failed to bring sustained move
               in and DJI broke support at 153 in February 1926 and fell to its low, down 16% from peak.

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October 20, 1926 (146.70) - October 3, 1927 (199.80)  under a year...
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   3.    March 15, 1935 (98.20) - April 6, 1936 (161.90) . 12% decline followed S9/S12.
                   Chart with indicators and Peerless Signals  
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     4.     April 28, 1942 (92.90) -  July 14, 1943 (145.80)   -
There was no sell signal at this top.
                   However, there was an Sell S9 weeks earlier.
                   DJI fell 11% to 129.60 on November 30, 1943.
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   5.      April 25. 1944 (135.10) -  February 2, 1946 (205.80)   - Sell S9 and S8. 
                  DJI fell 10% to 186.00 on February 26, 1946 and recovered to 212.30 before falling sharply..
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June 14, 1949 (161.90) -  June 12, 1950  under a year..    North Korean invasion of South Korea.
         
Earlier S9, head and shoulders, break in price uptrend, declining volume on last rally/.
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   6.      September 14, 1953  (255.50) -  September 23, 1955 (487.50)   - No Sell signal at this top.
                   Eisenhower heart attack dropped market down 10% to October 11, 1955 (438.60)

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    7.      October 21, 1957 (423.10) - August 8. 1959 (678.10)  There were Sell Signals before at
                   at the top.  DJI fell 9% to 616.50 on September 22, 1959
                   This was a 22-month rally.
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    8.      October 25, 1960 (566.00) - November 15, 1961 (734.30).  In 1962 a massive head and
                  shoulders pattern appeared with multiple Sell S10s.  The DJI declined 27%
                  to 535 on June 26, 1962.
            Earlier trend-break, Sell S9 and A/D NC.
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. 9.        October 23, 1962 (558.00) - May 14, 1965 (939.60)    Sell S8 signal occurred at top
                  and DJI fell 10%. 
                  Chart with indicators and Peerless Signals of last year.

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  ========================= See online Peerless manual for remaining charts ===================
                                      The Peerless on-line manual with all the charts from 1915-2010
                                                          and full discussion for each year is offered for $95.
             October 7, 1967 (744.32) - September 26, 1967 (937.18)  Sell S12 signal occurred at top
                  and DJI fell 10%.  Under a year...


   11.     November 24, 1972 (798.63) - January 11, 1973 (1051.70)    Sell S9/S12 signal occurred at top
                  and began deep bear market for 13 months.
                  Chart with indicators and Peerless Signals

   12.     August 12, 1982 (776.92) - January 6, 1984 (1286.64)    Sell S12 signal occurred at top
                  and DJI fell 15% to 1086.90 on June 15, 1984. 
                  Chart with indicators and Peerless Signals 

   13.     July 24, 1985 (1086.57) - July 2, 1986 (1909.03)/  Month earlier S2 marked topping area.
                 DJI fell 9% and formed sidewise trading range.
                 Chart with indicators and Peerless Signals.

   14.     January 21, 1988 (1879.31) - October 9, 1989 (2791.41) Sell S9 signal occurred at top
                  and DJI fell 10% to 2569.26 on October 13, 1989. 

   15.     January 9, 1991 (2470.30) - June 1, 1992 (3413.21) Sell S9 signal occurred a month before
                  DJI fell slightly more than 8% to 3136.58  on October 9, 1992. 

16.     October 9, 1992 (3136.58) - January 31, 1994 (3978.36) Sell S4 signal occurred a few days
                  after top and before DJI fell 10% to 3593.35  on April 4, 1994.

   17.     November 11, 1994 (3674.63) - March 11, 1997 (7085.16)
No signal occurred at this
                  top.
The DJI fell 10% to 6391.69 (April 11, 1997).

   18.     September 1, 1998 (7827.42) - August 25, 1999 (11326.03)  Sell S12 signal occurred at this
                  top.   The DJI fell 12% to 10019.71 (October 15, 1999)


             
March 11, 2003 (7524.06) - February 11, 2004 (10737.70)  Sell S9 signal occurred at this
                  top.   The DJI fell 9% to 10783.08 (October 22, 2004)  Under a year...

 
19.     April 20, 2005 (10012.36) - May 10, 2006 (11642.65)  Sell S9 signal occurred at this
                  top.   The DJI fell 8% to 10706.14 (June 13, 2007).

    20.    March 9, 2009 (6547.05) - open (        )  

1921-1922
1924-1926
1935-1936
1942-1943
1944-1946
1953-1955
1957-1959
1960-1961
1962-1965
1972-1975
1982-1984
1985-1986
1988-1989
 
 
 
 
 
 


            
                    
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