=====================================================================================================

       11/21/2009   Sell S12.  Weakness Today in All Areas but Gold. 
      Further Weakness Will Likely Bring A Decline to 9800.    But A Much Deeper Decline
      Cannot Be Ruled Out.  The Holiday Season Should Help Hold The Market Up.  

               BEST PERFORMING FIDELITY SECTOR FUNDS OVER LAST 65 TRADING DAYS

                FIDELITY FUND                   PCt Gain          BIGGEST HOLDINGS
               ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Gold              FSAGX              +33%             ABX, GG, GLD, AU, AEM, MEM, KGC. GOLD, AUY
               Energy          FSESX               +25%             SLB RIG WFT NOV HAL SII BJS NE ATW OII
               Multimedia   FBMPX             +22%              DIS TWX CMCSA TWC KMDIA OMC NWSA DTV CMCSK
               Natural Resouces FNARX     +22%             OXY SWN SU SLB MRO HK APC CNQ CHK FCX
               Energy         FSENX                +22%             OXY SLB SWN CHK RIG WFT APC MRO NE
               Computer     FDCPX                +20%             AAPL HPQ DELL EMC IBM STX MU HTCH WDC AMD
               Software      FSCSX                +20%             MSFT GOOG ORCL CTSH ACN ADBE BMC V EBAY NUAN
               Technology FSPTX                +20%             AAPL MSFT GOOG SCO INTC HPQ ORCL BMC RHT MU

              WORST PERFORMING FIDELITY SECTOR FUNDS OVER LAST 65 TRADING DAYS

               FIDELITY FUND                   PCt Gain         
               ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Insurance      FSPCX               +10%
              Health Care   FSPHX Health Care  +9%
              Medical         FSMEX Medical          +7%
              Banking         FSRBX +6%
              Housing         FSHOX +5%
              Home Finance FSVLX +2%
              Utilites             FSUTX +2%
              Biotech            FBIOX  +2%


                                           Tentative Conclusion:

             Tops are made by different groups at different points of time.   Speculative low priced stocks
             appear to have their six months in the sun and now profits are being taken.




             A sharp sell off now by Finance Stocks  from their now falling 65-day ma would be bearish
             for the market, but it might also merely get the FED to just loan them still more trillions
             and pump up the market more.

             FINANCE STOCKS' INDEX IS GOUNG NOWHERE.



      
              At some point, the steep uptrends will end for tech, software and computer stocks.  That would
              be significant.  They are the leaders.  So we will want to watch these groups and their A/D Lines.
              I think we should be concerned that these stocks' composite Accumulation Index is negative.
              Energy stocks are similarly up a lot, but now also showing negative Accumulation index radings.
              This too is a warning.  .
       



=======================================================
      11/16/2009      The SELL S12 May Still Work Out.   The Resistance at TheTop of The
           Price Channel Remains.   But, We Should Be Hedged, and Probably with A Bullish Bias until
           The CLosing Power Uptrends Are Violated.  That is What Our Stocks' Hotline Is. 

           After 28 years of watching these Peerless charts unfold I have learned to trust them, but also know
           their limits.  80% of the time the signals work very well.  But there are some that do not. So, it
           is best to use a set of indicators and tools.  The Tiger Closing Power has proven its importance, but
           it, too, can be wrong if public speculation is too wild, as it was in 1999 and 2000.   Seasonality is
           also a key.  Not counting 2009, since 1928, only 12% of the Peerless sell signals from mid-October to
           mid December are unprofitable.

           Even the NYSE A/D Line can be wrong.   It lagged thoughout 1999, yet the DJI and NASDAQ rose
           and rose.  It is still uptrending.  A break in it would more than ratify and confirm the Sell S12. 
           But today's NYSE breadth was superb and repeats the bullish pattern since March wherein
           excellent breadth trumps mediocre trading volume.  See that the A/D Line's own head and shoulders
           pattern has been bullishly aborted. 

           The Fed, or course, ultimately has the most to say about the market.   If we we can figure out
           what Bernanke intends, we have a huge advatange.  In recent HOTLINES I have reasoned that
           he will do his best to keep rates low until after the holiday buying period.  Only China could
           stop him.  But they want Americans to buy Chinese goods and so will not rock the heavily loaded
           boat of US national solvency.

           The Sell S12 from Peerless is being pushed aside by the growing sense that Bernanke will not raise
           rates until next year and the realization that stocks are a better hedge against inflation than sitting on
           cash.  So, money managers are being forced to chase.  Of course, the rally is seen as false, having
           been built with the essentially free Trillions of Dollars provided the biggest banks.  But just as Goldman
           Sachs rose and rose this year, despite its well justified, sinister reputation, so, too, the market now is
           rising despite the widespread perception that the buying is artificial and the economic recovery is not real.
          
           There us a key lesson here.   It is a big mistake to confuse the stock market's movements with
           norms like fairness and justice.  In no way, is it democratic.  The turth is we are far better served
           by thinking of the market as being mainly manipuled to fool the vast majority. By such reasoning,
           it should keep climbing the wall of worry that the advance is just a hollow bank specualtors' bubble.  

           Professionals are now buying, despite this fear. They are the key now.   We see their buying in how
           the Tiger CLosing Power is rising for the DJI and SPY.  Even the Closing Power for the QQQQ and
           IWM are no longer falling.   That in itself is a buy.  Their recent CLosing Power downtrends
           have been bullishly broken above.

          The public and foreign buyers have been pushing up prices above the previous day's close for two
           months, judging from the fact that the (blue) Opening Power for the DIA has not dipped below its 21-
           day ma since early September.   Since professional buyers in the US take their large positions during
           the day, we can watch Closing Power to see what they are doing. Since November 9th, the (green)
           Closing Power has been above its 21-day ma. 





           Now we are in the bullish situation when BOTH the public and professionals, in general, are bullish. 
           That's when prices rise most.   We can see this also in the steeply declining NYSE Red Down Volume.
           This is shown in the DJIA chart. This is a situation I have commented on frequently.

           Prices have reached the top of their price-resistance line. That may still offer resistance.  But,
           the apexes of prices on the right shoulders of head and shoulders' patterns have been exceeded.
           Our belief is that this destroys the bearishness of the pattern and prices rise because of short-covering.
           See this in IWM and QQQQ below.

        


==============================================================
      11/13/2009   Friday brought a new Sell S12 from Peerless.   The divergences are getting
           bigger.  WIll The current Fed Bubble burst and will the rally snap?  Somethng will have to happen
           to cause that.  An acceleration downward by the Dollar would unsettle the financial markets. 



           Technically, a break in the uptrending NYSE trendline would be the most important bearish development.
           (See chart above).

          The FED has put all our eggs in Wall Street bankers' hands and hoped for an economic recovery,
          believing that a rally, however artificial, will restore business confidence and get the middle class to spend
          again, as they see their retirement funds steadily rising.  But banks are not using the bailout trillions to
          make new loans, even though that was the pretext given to justify the bailouts,  Meanwhile, the ranks of the
          middle class are falling sharply, as jobs and homes disappear.  The race is on.  If there is no recovery,
          the stock bubble will surely burst.   For now, the FED ignores public outrage, because they are
          buffered by Obama, Geithner, Summers and Barny Frank. 

          As much as I would like Peerless to work, I'd also like to see the economy get stronger somehow
          and I can see that the general stock market may well hold up until next year. The uptrends of
          foreign ETFs and China are not in jeopardy, yet.          

          I'm not sure a decline will be allowed, especially before the Christmas retail season.  The good retail
          season will not save the economic revovery, but a bad season for merchants would be deadly.
          This the Fed knows.    Obama is in China. But it's not clear what China is willing to do to change the
          picture.  They do not want the Dollar to weaken dramatically because of all the US government debt
          they hold.  A much lower Dollar will make put Chinese goods at a price disadvatage.   So, what will
          change the picture of an artificial rally?  I can see how the DJI and other highs caps will keep scratching
          out more gains.  Perhaps, the real economy will get stronger. But then why have seconday stock indexes
          like IWM (Russell-2000), Value Line and Low Prices stocks topped out and bearishly showing falling A/D "
          LInes and CLosing Powers?  The chart below shows that Emplyment and Recruiting stocks are weak
          and forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern.  We will watch this chart for the next week closely.
          A move above its right shoulder apex will be bullish.  A penetration of the falling neckline will be bearish.
         



          I would stay short ETFS that represent the Russell-2000 and hold the highest Accumulation stocks we can find. 





          The DJI is just below the resistance at the upper 3.5% band and the top of its rising wedge.
          10355 would represent a 50% retracement of what the DJI lost between the 2007 peak and
          and the 2009 bottom.  With volume so low, it would be surprising to see the DJI move past 10400.
          The OPCT is higher than it

         The internal strength indicators are weakening, as as the DJI rallies.  Not only is the
         P-Indicator negative, now the current Accum. Index ("IP21") is too.  As the DJI makes
         new highs, the very broad based Value Line and IWM (ETF for Russell-2000) are forming
         what look like bearish head and shoulders patterns in the making.  Their Adv-Decline Lines
         are already pointing down.  But money is still flowing into higher capitalization stocks.  The
         A/D Line for the DJI-30 and SP-500 are still rising.  But that money is decreasing, facing more
         and more distribution and dependent upon public and foreign buying overseas and at the
         opening.




  Russell-2000




          QQQQ


          SP-500



                                                             A/D Line for SP-500


=======================================================
     

      11/12/2009

         There many bearish breadth and volume divergences,  The Peerless system used
         until the June 2008 has given a major Sell S9 today.



              I think we have to take seriously new short-term sell signals.  Of the four short-term
        systems I have suggested, the optimized short-term systems for the SPY and QQQQ
        gave SELLs today, as did the 10-day Stochastic on the DJI.  Note, however that the
        Closing Powers are still rising as is the IDOSC for the DJI and SPY.  This secondary stock
        weakness should be enough to justify doing some selling and buying some Short ETFs
        on the Russell-2000.   The SELLs are much more pronounced for the broadest indexes. 
        See how much greater is the  weakness we see now in the NASDAQ, QQQQ, low-priced
        stocks and the Russell-2000 (IWM) than in DJI or the SP-500.  This what happens when
        big money gets nervous about how extended the rally is.  See these broad-based indexes
        below.

            I know only a little about Elliot wave theory, I admit.  But if this is a bear market rally
        in what will be a much bigger move down, thenI see two distictive waves up.  And that
        is what a bear market rally is apt to produce.   On the other hand, a third wave up and
        a surpassing the 50% retracement level at 10400 would argue that we are seeing a
        bull market that will extend much further up.   The technicals now argue for the first view.
        
        




                     RWM -  A SHort ETF on the Russell-2000.  Its fluctuations are supposed to            
           correspond to the inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 index.




               The Dollar rallied today and Gold fell.  That seems to be what drops the stock
        market these days.  It would be surprising for the Treasury and Fed not to try to ramp
        up the Dollar and discourage easy speculation against the Dollar.  It could do that
        for two weeks and still leave interest rates unchanged for the holiday season.   Perhaps,
        they will work with other Central Banks and the Chinese to do this.    



                                  LOW-PRICED STOCKS' INDEX




                                                                   NC

          Source:   http://tal.marketgauge.com
======================================================
   

    11/11/2009  Peerless Sell S12 Is Operative.  Upper Band Reached
      with Negative P-Indicator.  The Short-Term Indicators Are Still Rising. 
      But with Six Straight Up Days for DJIA,  Some Profit-Taking Is Likely.

         Foreign stock markets should next pause.  Resistance has been reached and internals
         are much lower than they were the last time current price levels were reached.   Without
         a boost from foreign markets, the DJI is also apt to fall back.  Recently it has run ahead
         of the other US market indexes.   This is often bearish.      


  

        Staffing Stocks show a bearish head and shoulders pattern.  We will want to see if they
        exceed their right shoulder to abort this bearish pattern.  Below is the TigerSoft Index of
        15 Hiring Stocks.



             Taking a larger view, we have to note that it is normally bearish that"

         (1) the DJI has now reached the upper band with the P-Indicator negative;

         (2) that it has almost reached the rising resistance line in the DJI's bearish
         rising wedge pattern;

         (3) that a steep rise in gold, as we now see, often leads to sharp decline;

         (4)  that it has now retraced nearly 50% of what it lost between the peak of 2007
        and the low in 2009 - a frequent point of reversal;

         (5) and that we already have a Peerless Sell S12.

                I opined last night that we should probbaly wait for the short term indicators
       to tell us when this rally is over and then expect another testing of the rising A/D
       Line uptrend.  And if that uptrend-line is broken, watch out below!  I think this
       is still reasonable advise, given the Fed's clear intent to prop up the market
       during the critical retail season ahead. 

       The FED and the Treasury will continue try to prop up the market based on their
       belief that a rising stock market will produce a business turn-around.  Maybe,
      it will.  Unemployment tends to keep falling 7 months to a year after a market
      bottom.  So, another bad set of data about unemployment should not be
      taken a proof positive that they are wrong. 

              More of a threat to the market immediately comes from Senator Chris Dodd (D)
      who would force the FED to make public which banks get its trillions in credit
      for toxic assets.  Wall Street wants to be coddled.   Take away their special
      treatment and they will be "cry-babies" and drop the market in protect...  Dodd
      has populist support but is not likely to overcome Obama's, Geithner's and Barney
      Frank's opposition.   We can watch Goldman Sachs rising stock to get a sense if such
      legislation has any serious chance.  If the stock holds up, Dodd's effort will appear to
      be a symbolic effort to appear critical of Wall Street for his re-election efforts in 2010.  
      The hypocrisy in his behavior just has to be noted.   He played an important role in
      curbing regulation of home loans and allowing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Bank
      Of America to make unsafe loans.  In return, he got special treatment from Country Wide
      in his own loans's rates.   TigerSoft Blogs about Dodd: Sweetheart Bill for Mortgage Lenders
      and BAC.    Lies about foreknowledge AIG bonues.

     The biggest threat to the rally, I would say, comes from the probability of
     more big bank failures.  These banks' stock charts look awful.  I would be surprised
     if they escape full bankrutcy and government takeover.  The bank charts below
     are of

      ABK (.8),   11/10/2009 - warns it may file for bankruptcy.
      ADVNA(.105), - filed for bankruptcy 11/9/2009
      AMFI (.4), -
      GFIG (4.92),  lower quarterly earnings...
      IBCP (.74),  Michigan bank... Chap 11
      KEY (5.76),
      MBI (3.75),  Bankruptcy soon.
      PVTB (10.2)  Downgraded to neutral JPM.
















      



=========================================================================================
        11/10/2009  Peerless Sell S12 Is Operative.   But Fighting The FED Is Not A Good Idea.
             Use Our Short-Term Trading Tools To Judge When This Rally Is Over. 

             Why is the DJI rallying against the Sell S12 Peerless?  The simple answer is that the signal was
             premature for Gold, Foreign ETFs, the DJIA and the SP-500.  A 5%, or even an 8% paper loss
             can occur, though this is rare.  The Sell S12 has not yet been proven invalid for the QQQQ
             or lower priced stocks.  With Gold soaring, I would expect the present rally to end badly.
             Over and over, steep rises in Gold bring bear markets.  Look back at the period 1976-1980.
             Gold quadrupled under the Democrat Carter then.  But look at all the bear markets that
             also occurred: 1977, October 1978 "Mini Massacre", October 1979 "Mini Massacre"
             and Bunker Hunt fiasco in 1980.  Then a bear market followed in 1981-1982.  As I showed
             last night, years that end in "0" usually do badly.

             Still  the rally may continue still longer.  Never before has the FED pumped so much money
             into banks.   The margin by which this is true is massive. This new bubble seems inevitable,
             as the FED gambles that it will lead to a Main Street recovery before the market bubble breaks..

            http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13574.html     

             Why is there no new Sell S9 with the P-Indicator negative at the upper band?  This is because
             in November, our S9s need also to show a negative divergence from the Accumulation Index and
             the DJI needs to be still more above the 21-day ma.  Since 1929, the only November S9s previously
             occurred in 1980.   There were two in the year,  The DJI was then 4.2% over the 21-day ma and
             showed a current Accumulation Index value of -.10 and -.065.  So, to get a new Peerless sell
             on this rally we will need to see the Accumulation Index drop more than .10 from its current levels. 

              And so, a narrowing rally continues.  After all, Goldman Sachs people have a lot of money to buy
              things with!   Has the FED and Treasury made $3 trillion available to banks on
              condition they buy and not sell?  Is an economic turn-around just ahead for Main Street?
              Is this just a reflex pullback to the point of breakdown in the DJIA, around 10,800? 
              Time may answer these questions.  Right now our job is figure out how we will know when the
              present rally is over.  This seems the right question; this has become a trading
              market as we work further and further out along the DJIA's narrowing rising wedge pattern.
              And with a Sell S12 extant, the next decline might break the key A/D Line for the
              NYSE.   This rising A/D Line has lastrf 8 months.  That makes its integrity very important.

             We have very good short-term trading tools.  Use them.  We have played the rally.  That has been
             better than being stubbornly short.  Now watch for signs of a reversal downward.  In particular,
             watch for:
                      1) The CLosing Power of the main ETFs breaking their recent uptrend-lines. 
                                    See QQQQ below.  DIA  SPY  IWM
                      2) The red K-Line of the 10-Day Stochastic on the DJI breaking below the blue
                          10-day Pct D.  See DJI below
                      3) The optimized red Sell Signals on the ETFs switching from Buy to Sell.
                      4) The Chaiken IDOSC for the DJI reversing direction.  See DJI below. 


















===================================================================

       11/9/2009    Peerless Sell S12.  Bearish Head and Shoulders Patterns' Apexes Bullishly Exceeded.
             This is bullish but the rally must continue, as the moves above the apexes have so far been only marginal.
             Peerless Losses Can Occasionally Be 5%, even 7%.  It's Best To Use More Than Peerless.
            
             More and more this looks like a market out of the 1970s when there was high unemployment and
             a weak Dollar and rising Gold prices.  The difference now is that interest rates are so low, they can
             only change by rising.  Next year, 2010, will likely be problematic.  Buying and holding in 1900, 1910, 1920,
             1930, 1940, 1960, 1970, 1990 and 2000 would gave been costly and/or highly nerve-wracking. `1950
             and 1980 were the exceptions, but these featured the Korean War Sell-off and the Bunker Hunt melt-down.
             Using Peerless to trade would have worked out much better than buying and holding.

             The rising resistance line in the DJI's rising wedge pattern crosses about 10,350.  It would be surprising
             to see the DJI exceed that without much more volume.  I take the recent rally to be a continuation
             of the uptrend within this rising wedge.  Another retreat back below 10000 likely unless volume increases.
             Breadth, judging from the P-Indicator turning negative, is weakening.  That will limit the rally, though
             it will focus more and more hot, high-performance money into fewer and fewer stocks making new highs.
             A break in the   well-tested 8 month uptrend would be quite bearish.  Watch the A/D Line closely.

             Wait for the CLosing Power in your favorite to break its uptrend to Sell.  The 10-Day Stochastic
             and IDOSC (not shown here) are still rising.  Their turning down will be a short-term sell.

             Internals are still low despite the DJI's reaching 2.9% over its 21-day ma.  In fact, the P-Indicator stands
             at a -31.   If these conditions had been present a month ago, there would have been a Sell S9.   But the
             back-testing has shown the need to take into account the ordinary bullishness of the period form the
             third week of November to the end of December.  Peerless makes it harder for S9s to be produced
             from October 20th to December 31st.  Peerless Sell signals are still possible between now and the
             end of the year.   They are just not as reliable or profitable.

                                     Peerless Sell Signals in November and December 1929-2009

              Signal               Number of Occurrences        Avg. Gain      Percent That Were Profitably Traded
                                                                                                        if Short Sales Were Taken on The Signal
                                                                                                        and Closed Out on The Next Peerless Buy
              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              S1                            2                                      4.9%              100%
              S4                            1                                      11.8%             100%
              S5                            5                                      0.6%                40%
              S6                            4                                      1.1%                50%
              S8                            2                                      2.1%                50%
              S9                            8                                      5.5%                100%
              S10                          2                                      1.5%                 50%
              S12                         12                                     2.8%                 67%

             As I state in the HOTLINE introduction above, our predictions are not solely reliant upon the
             Peerless Buys/Sells.  We usually try also to consider
                    (1) Seasonality -
                                    From 1966 to the present, the DJI rises 59% of the time over the next week,
                                                                                                 72% of the time over the next month
                                                                                                 80% of the time over the next two months.
                    (2) the actions of the FED - 
                                     See recent comments about why Fed keeps rates low before and during holiday period.
                                     August 18, 2007       Federal Reserve Discount Rate Changes and Their Effect of Stock Prices: 1965-2007
                                                 January 29, 2008     Interest Rate Cuts Won't Fix What Ails The American Economy..
                (3) Chart Patterns  - Now we are watching the moves by important indexes' price above the right shoulders
                                     of their head and shoulders' apexes.  This is bullish. 
                                     See NASDAQ, QQQQ, IWM, SPY, SLV.
                    (4) Closing Power Ttrends.  The breaking of CP down-trends is a Buy.
                    (5) NYSE A/D Line. The breaking of A/D Line down-trends is a Buy.
                    (6) Yearly Optimized Buys and Sells.  The tops of the TigerSoft charts show this.
                    (7) Moving Averages.  Bounces up from a rising 50-day/65-day ma should be traded to the upside..  
          
          NYSE New HIghs reached 160 today,  There were no new 52-week lows on the NYSE.  The NASDAQ
                 was not so onesided.  But there were still 80 new highs.  Our Stocks' Hotline has only one ETF
                 posiiton, GLD, which we have been long for some time.   Enough stocks meet our Explosive Super
                 Stocks' criteria to make our long to short ration among stocks to be 3:1.  If you are using our Elite
                 Stock Professional Service, look at the stocks that qualify. 

                They are saved into AUGB1224 and ELITSTKS data downloads/  We want to see all Bullish notes
                 on the right side of the chart, an AI/200 score above 140, a current AI value (IP21) above +.25
                 and Closing Power making a new high.  A new price breakout on red high volume above
                 flat or nearly flat resistance is brings an augmented B24 if there has previously been a bulge
                 of Accumulatin above +.50 .  




        Looking Ahead:   8 of  the 10 years ending in "0"
            since 1900 have been down.  In the exceptions
            there were steep intra-year declines.

        Performance of The DJIA In Years Ending in "0"

                  DJIA at end                   DJIA at end of
                  of year.                          year ending in "0"    
          -----------------------------                 -------------------------------
         1909     99                              1910   81
         1919     109                            1920   72
         1929     244                            1930   170 
         1939     151                            1940   131
         1949     201                            1950   240
         1959     679                            1960   616
         1969     809      540 low          1970  839   
         1979     825      770 low           1980  964
         1989    2753     2380 low        1990  2634
         1999    11497                          2000   10787
         2009
           
============================================================================================  
       
      11/8/2009        Peerless Sell S12.  Watch The Emerging Head and Shoulders.
            A Move Past Right Shoulders' Apexes Will Be Bullish.  But Breaks
            below Necklines Will Be Bearish.

            It Seems The FED Will Keep Interest Rates Low Until January.
            So, buy More Gold (GLD).            

       The seasonality is not so great for the next two weeks.  In checking back older data, I see declines
            in the period 1915-1941 in 2/3 of the cases where the DJI was already in a rising trend.  At the
            beginning of the 4th week of the month, it improves considerably.  Seasonality did not work
            in September and October.  It would probably to better to simply watch how the chart patterns
            now resolve themselves.

            The DJI is in a bearish rising wedge pattern. Volume is expected to and is declining.  More volume
            is needed to move the DJI past 10400 by very much.  Good breadth has been the saving grace
            for the post March rally.  The more gradual NYSE A/D Line uptrend is still intact, but the steep
            and well-tested trend upwards by it has been broken. 

            Gold ETFs are our favorite group now.  Gold stocks should breakout soon.  Newmont is likely
            finally to get past 50 again.  That will set up a target of 62.  Foreign ETFs are on the verge of
            getting past their resistance.  See chart.  This is what a weak Dollar brings.





            It is bullish that key averages, like the DIA (DJIA) and SPY (SP-500) have readily bounced up from
            their rising 65-day ma.   But we see a head and shoulders pattern in the the QQQQ, Value Line, XLY
            Finance Stocks and Russell-2000 (IWM). This provides us an excellent way to play the market. 
            Above the apexes of the right shoulder will be bullish.  Below the neckline will be decidely bearish.

            Retail stocks (RTH) are doing well now. They are sometimes among the last groups to top out. 
            We can watch XLY's developing head and shoulers pattern unfold to our advantage. .






            Realize that tops are usually made gradually, as more and more groups stop making new highs.
            That has already happened with low priced stocks, but bigger tech stocks are generally doing
            well, as the weak Dollar is helping their sales.  Their strength and Gold's are pretty good signs
            that traders do not expect the Fed to rais einterest rates until after the coming Holiday season.



           The Sell S12 at 10000 should make us nervous, because so much of the rally was fueled by banks
            buying with money the Fed has given them at nearly 0%. But is there going to be a change in
            Fed policies with unemployment now officially at 10.2% and with the key retail season just ahead? 
            No.  Not likely.

            More strength in Gold is expected based on technicals. That puts pressure on the Dollar and that
            may make the Fed change their mind early next year about keeping rates so low.. Since the
            market looks ahead, we may see a 12% decline early next year, or perhaps very soon if prices
            turn down sharply this coming week. For this watch to see if prices fall back from the apexes on
            this page or whether they shoot past the apex resistance levels.   I said last week that what happens
            next depends on and can be predicted by watching to see whether the QQQQ gets past the apex
            of its potential right shoulder.  I would say watch all the indexes here for the same thing.

                The QQQQ surpassing 43.05 would be bullish.
                 But a breaking below 42.80 would be bearish.

      
         Retailing and Credit Card Stocks Are Looking Up.  Traders do not expect a rise in interest
              rates until January.  That would explain strength in Gold and Visa, Master Card, American Express.. 



       11/5/2009   Sell S12... Closing Power Down-Trendlines Were Broken for Short-Term Buys.
             The 5% Range in the DJI Is Narrowing.  The Rising Wedge Pattern Seen Now in the DJI and the
             head and shoulder patterns seen in the QQQQ, IWM, Dilver and Oil stocks are not a good signs,
             though it will take weakness and a break below the neckline supports to confirm the patterns'
             weakness.   Will The Bullish Seasonality and more FED loans to banks be able to hold the market up
             till next year?   So, long as the well-tested more gradual uptrending NYSE A/D Line is not broken,
             I would say the market is OK.  But the upside looks quite limited.  December weakness in 2007
             shows that there are no guarantees that the market will not decline in December.

             As the market rallies up from the 65-day ma, it is led now by Gold (not gold stocks) and foreign
             ETFs.  These are shown in their charts below.  Their strength is a reflection of fears that Bernanke
             and the Federal Reserve are going to continue to keep interest rates for banks at almost 0 and
             are willing to allow the US Dollar to weaken further.  Bank stocks do, as a whole, show lots of
             red Distribution.   But they did not break their neckline-support on the recent decline.  Such a breakdown
             would be bearish.   At some point, Bernanke will not be able to successfully defend his throwing
             trillions   down the bank rat-hole.  Too harsh? The latest reports still show NO evidence that banks have used
             their TARP and FED subsidies/bail outs to make any more commercial and small business loans
             than they did six months ago!  Will the zombie monopoly banks much longer be allowed to use this money
             more for trading than making loans?  That political vulnerability lies behind the heavy red Distribution
             in Finance Stocks.

                          10/25/2008   So When Will Banks Give Loans? - NYTimes.com

                         1/26/2009  Lending Drops at Big U.S. Banks - WSJ.com

                         According to data compiled by Bloomberg, banks made
                         syndicated loans of $79.6 billion during the first quarter
                         of 2009. But over the same period in 2008, U.S. banks $203.2
                         billion loans – a 61% difference from year-to-year. 
                         In the first quarter of 2007. In that three-month period,
                         the U.S. issued $446.4 billion in loans.
                        
                        8/13/2009    "Tight-fisted"  Banks Not Making Small Business Loans

                       10/15/2009 - Trading keeps Citigroup, others in the black.     
                       "The bad news is that they're not making loans to consumers
                        and businesses," said market analyst Edward Yardeni. "That
                       could come back to bite them because these trading gains will
                       only last so long."

                      10/21/2009   Small Businesses Still Not Getting Loans
                      Small business loans are "too much trouble."

                    Tiger Index of Low Priced Stocks: 2008-2009
 

        Finance Stocks, despite all the money given them at low rates approaching 0%, are still in deep trouble,
        judging from the steady red Dsitribution see when finance stocks are plotted as an index with TigerSoft.
        Their A/D Line trend is also point lower.



       
                  I did come across the graph below showing just how much liquidity the FED has provided
        banks.  It is much more than we have ever seen.  Such Fed infusions also took place from October
        1999 to January 2000 (laying the basis for an even bigger internet bubble and bust) and again
        after the September terrorist attack on New York (which resulted in a 7 month bear market rally
        that ended in April 2002 and was followed by a deep decline until March 2003.  "Up until the day
        Lehman Brothers collapsed in September of last year, it took the Fed a total 5,012 days — 13 years
        and 8 months — to double the cash currency and reserves in the coffers of U.S. banks. In contrast,
        after the Lehman Brothers collapse, it took Bernanke’s Fed only 112 days to double the size of
        U.S. bank reserves. He accelerated the pace of bank reserve expansion by a factor of 45 to 1."
         http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13574.html    I
       
       
    
==================================================================================
       10/28/2009   Sell S12 Operating.  Technical Bounce.  QQQQ Is Still below Resistance of Its 21-Day.

            I probably should have awaited for the DJI and QQQQ to break their 50-day ma
     before becoming to Haloweenish last night.  The fact is that though volume has been weak and
    the S12 shows distribution, breadth has been constructive,    There was no Sell S9 signal. 
    And it is possible if the P-Indicator does not deteriorate much, we may get a Buy B9 in a week
    or two.  None can occur for two weeks after a Sell S12.   

             I came across an interetsing chart today.  It shows that the 6 month advance in
    the DJI is the highest of any new bull market on the lowest and most negative volume.
    Breadth has saved the rally thus far.  Perhaps, it will still.   The shallower uptrend
    of the NYSE has not yet been violated.  The creator of the chart below states that
    "if you think of volume as fuel for any sustainable market rally, then we’ve been
     running on fumes for a few months."

            6 Month Gain and 6 Month Change in Volume


    http://www.tradersnarrative.com/volume-mirage-biggest-rally-powered-by-least-volume-3024.html

           The DJI rebounded 100 today as it turned up from a little above its rising 50-day ma.
     The ratio yesterday of NYSE advances to declines was 1 to 9.   Today's ratio was 4.8 to 1.
     Volume was lower than yesterday.  The QQQQ (chart below) was typical of the long general market
     ETFs.  After four staight down days, it rose today and gave a red optimized Stochastic Buy based
     on the short-term 14-day Stochastic.  The bounce occurred just where one might look for
     one, up from the rising 50-day ma.  How far will it advance.   It is still below the resistance
     of its now flat red 21-day ma.  Most important,  all its key internals are rated "negative' by
     the Tiger program.   I

                    QQQQ Internals:
                            1.        The Blue Closing Power is below its falling 21-day ma.
                            2.        The Magenta OBV is below its falling 21-day ma.
                            3.        The Brown Relative Strength Quotient is below its falling 21-day ma.
                            4.        The Accumulation Index is Red (negative) and below its fall 21-dma.
                            5.        The Tiger Dat Traders' Tool is below its falling 21-dma.

           Gold (GLD) rembounded from the 100 breakout point.  The Dollar Fell back from its falling 50-day ma
    I would say GLD is at a good buy point again.  See the chart below.

           DJI rebounds like we saw today from a rising 50-day ma are normal.  But they do not mean
   a big recovery.  Below are the historical cases most resembling the current S12. I have posted in
   immediately below what the DJI did after the S12 upon first reaching the rising 50-day ma.  Brief
   bounces do occur.  But they are meaningless from an intermediate-term perspective because the
   lower band was always soon hit.
               
                6 Previous Cases: Short-Term Bounces after S12 with NNC from OPCT: 1929-2009

       8/24/38       1.   DJI rose from 137.10 on 8/29/1938 to a peak of 143.10 on 9/7/1938 and then fell to 130.20 on 9/27/1938
       7/11/1968   2.   DJI broke rising 50-day ma on 7/23/1968 and fell to 869.65 on 8/9/1968
       4/1/1981     3.   DJI broke rising 50-day ma on 5/2/981 (979.11) and fell to 963.44 on 5/11/1981
      1/6/1983     4     DJI broke rising 50-dma on 1/24/1983 (1030.17), got a new Buy B9 and moved up above upper band.
       1/6/1984     5.   DJI hesitated at rising 50-dma on 1/12/1983 (1270.10) and a week later broken down to 1134.21 on 2/22/1934
       12/8/2000    6.    DJI rose from rising 50-dma on 12/11/2001 (10729), rallied 2% in two days and then fell to 10318
                                 and lower band on 12/20/2000 from which it again rallied to the upper band.
      

              QQQQ - Stochastic Buy at rising (blue) 50-dma.

 



               10/29/2009    House Speaker Pelosi said she would now only push for a much weakened public
option that would not go into effect for more than 3 years.  Her version, which Obama applauded,
would require everyone to get such private insurance, except the poor.  They will have
the option of subscribing to a subsidized public insurance .  The very rich will have an extra tax of 5.4%
to pay for the health care subsidy of the very poor.   Gone is a public option for all Americans in
which the government  sets rates as in Medicaire.  Somehow, medical insurance companies
will be regulated.   The profitability of health insurance companies is not to go past a certain point.
It is not clear what will prevent health insurance companies from paying their execs billions
or using tax deductible miillions to bribe Congress in the form of campaign contributions
and use of jets, etc.  Nothing would limit the health insurance companies from deducting as a
legitimate expense their spending millions fighting public health care on TV.  As it stands,
a very small handful of companies will be splitting up what now amounts to 16% of the total
US GNP ($14 trillion). 


================================================================================
  
          10/28/2009   Sell S12 Operating.  Bankers' Pump and Dump.

         The lower band at 9500 is the first downside target for the DJIA.  Today's DOW closing
         below the support of its 21-day ma invites such a test after the SELL S12.  As I showed
         yesterday, a deeper decline is more typical after a bull market S12 with negative OPCT
         readings on the last peak.    Confirming that prognosis, the DJI fell 120 today and the rest
         of the market dropped even harder.   Downside volume on the NYSE was 10 times
         Upside volume.  It's been six months since the number of NYSE advancers was this
         low.  The number of new lows on the NYSE was only 11 and on the NASDAQ was only 33. 
         So, at this stage, what is happening is that a great many stocks are viciously and quickly
         breaking down below their 50-day ma.   They are slicing through this usual support as though
         it was non-existent.  And, in fact, it may not be.  That is what happens in a classic "pump and
         dump".  The stock is mostly dumped on the way down to investors who think that they
         are gtting a bargain.

          Dumping like this is dangerous.   It reminds me of the classic  "Pump and Dump" manipulation. 
          This time it is being done by the likes of Goldman Sachs. JP Mortgan and Bank of America. 
          So, not only did these banks "steal" (in my opinion, that is the only word that applies) trillions
          from the general public with the help of Paulson, Geitner and Bernanke, now they are
          dumping the over-priced stocks they recklessly bid up onto the very same people who bailed them
          out.  What gratitude!  No wonder Glass-Steagall forbad commercial banks for 80 uears from
          being investment banks and brokerages.   If I am right, when the whole story comes out about
          this "Bankers' Pump and Dump", buy the stock in the company that makes pitch-forks!

                                 Reading about Pump, Dump and Bankers:
                              Coming Soon: More Scandals.  Dec. 1, 2005 
                              Criminal Environment Is Created by US Government   Jan. 12, 2005.
                              Does Goldman Manipulate The Stock Market?
                              About that stock manipulation software Goldman Sachs owns ...
                              Manipulation is rife on stock markets « melange
                              Goldman Sachs Market Manipulation Dominance at Risk by Theft

                                       

                                THE RISKS OF HOLDING SEEM QUITE HIGH

         Technically, the rapid falling below the 50-day ma on very high volume is a clear warning.
         Normally, it can be taken as just a warning unless the stock's Accumulation
         Index readings are negative.  Then it must be taken as a SELL, especially when
         market conditions look artificial and over-extended, as now.  I think the low volume rallies
         and the NYSE own statistics show that the advance has been pushed up artificially by
         banks with public funds.  But just given how far the market has risen, how there has not
         been a double-bottom and the history of the type of Sell S12s we just had, I believe such breaks
         in particular stocks make then necessary and reasonable Sells.  There is too much risk not to sell. 
         A closing below their 65-day ma is more emphatically a Sell. Use that if you want to be surer.
         I think that is what is coming.   

         If selling is too hard emotionally to do or because you want profits to be postponed for tax
         purposes, then buy some of the leveraged ETF puts I mentioned last night.  This is the approach
         I have taken on our Stocks' Hotline.

         I want to show some typical NASDAQ-100 stocks back in 2002 after the 7 month's uptrending
         A/D Line then was broken.  See how quickly these stocks caved in when the NYSE Advance-
         Decline-Line was broken then.  So far, only the steeper Advance-Decline Line has been broken. 
         But with prices and the A/D Line up so much and so over-extended, it is usually best to employ
         the steeper uptrend. 

                    FIRST, NOTE THE BREAK IN THE A/D LINE UPTREND WAS ON 5/22/2002




                 SECOND, SEE HOW THESE STOCKS COLLAPSED AFTER 5/22/2002.
            Not shown here, QQQQ fell from 31.40 to a low of 20 five months later.

                             AAPLE fell from 12 to 7 in 3-4 MONTHS
                             ADOBE FELL FROM 18 to 9...
                             CSCO FELL FROM 16 to 9.







====================================================================================
         10/27/2009   The Peerless Current Sell S12 is made more bearish by the fact that as the
         Sell S12 was occurring, the OPCT was negative.  Since 1928, there have only been six cases
         of an independent Sell S12 with a negative OPCT while the DJI had been in a sustained
         uptrend and was above a rising 65-day ma.  The average decline was 12.7%.  If you are
         bullish still, it is important that the DJI now NOT drop below the lower 3.5%-4.0% lower
         band.   We can hope that the bullish period after the third week of November prevents a
         bigger decline, for the sake of all those that are already jobless.  

                 The research I did tonight on the HOTLINE suggests a 13% decline in the DJI if past
         volatility applies. This past year's volatility has been twice to three times greater.   We do not want
         to be in stocks that will eventually sell off as confidence erodes.  In additon to selling thinner
         stocks that have run up a long ways, look at the ETFs that allow aggressive leveraged short
         selling,  Two criteria can be used: 1) high levels of Accumulation and 2) the surpassing the 50-day
         ma.   TigerSoft Data permits downloading the large number of leveraged short ETFs.
         Here are the ones that look the most interesting as purchases, either to hedge portfolios
         or to be aggressively short:  RWM 47.86, SBB 42.37,  EFZ  60.16 - IP21= + .34 and
         EWV 52.74 and SSG  24.28   



       

                                                  SELL S12s' Statistics

                Cases since 1928 Most Resembling Current Sell S12 with negative OPCT.
.
                  Formula:     (On-Balance-Volume Pct = 21 days' OBV/Volume for 21 days)

         Cases Most Resembling Current S12 with negative OPCT.
         Here they are:              Outcome:   
         1.   8/24/38     143.50  Fell immediately, reaching  129.90 below lower band a month later.  OP= -.174
                                              10% decline.
         2.   7/11/1968 922.82  Fell immediately, reaching  870.37 and lower band 3 weeks later.  OP= -.008
                                               10% decline.
          3.    4/1/1981    1014.14   Rose to 1024.05 and fell to the lower band in a month, 963.33    -.052
                                                  This started the 1981-1982 bear market.
                                              20% decline.
          4.    1/6/1983     1070.92    Rose to 1083.79 and fell to the lower band in 3 weeks, 1030.17     -.134
                                              6% decline.
          5.    1/6/1984  1286.64    Immediately declined below lower band to 1134.63 on 2/23/1984   OP= -.154
                                               16% decline.
          6.    12/8/2000  10712.91 Fell immediately to lower band, 10487.29,  on 12/21/2000  
                                                    and then below lower band to 9389.48, on 3/22/2000  OP= -.156
                                                 14% decline.

          Rallies after, and paper losses from, these Sell S12s occurred only in 2 of the 6 cases and were
          by less than 1.5%.  In these cases, no clinching is needed apparently.  What is more to the point
          now is that in 5 of 6 cases the DJI eventually fell substantially below the lower band. 

         The lower band support is very important.  You can see this in the 1981 chart below.

                                                                  1981 Sell S12

    
       Completed S12 Statistics: 1928-2009

         Rising Markets:(above 65-dma): S12s with no Nearby S4,S6, S9  
             ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         6/12/35    117.1   Reversal loss -8.7%  OP= +.072  Avoided using A/D Line trend-break clinching.
         6/24/35    120.    Reversal loss -6.1%  OP= +.067  Avoided using A/D Line trend-break clinching.
         7/27/38    140.20   fell directly to 136.90 and lower band. OP= +.014
         8/5/38      144.50  fell directly to 136.90 and lower band.  OP= +.028
  1.  8/24/38      143.50  Fell immediately, reaching  129.90 below lower band a month later.  OP= -.174
                                                                                                  -----------------------  
          3/16/1967  868.49   fell directly to 842.43 .025 lower band in 3 weeks. OP= +.017
         4/21/1967  883.18    Rallied to 899.89 and fell slightly below lower band in a month, 899.89. OP= +.179
                                                                                  ---------------------------
         9/14/1967 929.44   Rallied to 937.18 and   fell below lower band in 6 weeks to 850. OP= +.109
                                                                                  -------------------
         1/9/1968   908.29    Rallied to 900.24 and  fell below lower band in 19 weeks to 825. OP= +.158
                                                                                  -----------------------
   2.  7/11/1968 922.82  Fell immediately, reaching  870.37 and lower band 3 weeks later.  OP= -.008
        
         10/21/1975   846.82  Rallied to 860.67 and then fell slightly below lower band, 793.80, on 9/30/75 .OP= +.125 
                                                                                              ---------------------------------
         7/17/1978      839.05    Fell only to 21-dma immedately and then rallied  OP= +.051
         (9/11/1978     907.74     Declined to lower band at 857.16 in 7 trading days and rallied  OP= +.187
                                                 and one months later fell below the lower band without a new Buy.
                                                                                       ---------------------- )
  3.   4/1/1981     1014.14   Rose to 1024.05 and fell to the lower band in a month, 963.33     -.052
                                           and two months later fell below the lower band without a new Buy.
                                                                                ----------------------
   4.    1/6/1983     1070.92    Rose to 1083.79 and fell to the lower band in 3 weeks, 1030.17     -.134
       
   5.   1/6/1984   1286.64    Immediately declined below lower band to 1134.63 on 2/23/1984   OP= -.154
                                                                               --------------------
         10/7/1997   8178.31  Immediately declined below lower band to 7161.15 on 10/27/1997 OP= +.118
                                                                               -----------------------  
         6/18/1999  10855.55   DJI rallied to 11300 in 2 months before falling to 10019.71 on 10/15/1999  OP= +.046 
                                             The DJI fell below the lower band four months later and there was no intervening Buy.
                                                                  ----------------------------
         7/17/2000  10804.27 Fell immediately to 10511.17 on 7/28/2000, then rallied to 11259.87 on 9/7/2000 and
                                   then fell to 9975.02 on 10/18/2000    OP= +.193  and  OP= +.12 on 2nd S12 two days later.
   6.    12/8/2000  10712.91 Fell immediately to lower band, 10487.29,  on 12/21/2000  
                                    and then far below lower band to 9389.48, on 3/22/2000  OP= -.156
                                                         ------------------------
          10/15/2009 10062.94 (Dial Data corrected data)  OP= -.07
          10/21/2009 9949.36  (Dial Data uncorrected data)  OP= -.208

===================================================================================
             10/26/2009 Sell S12 Clinched....Be Wary of Trap-Door Declines

              We have an "Isolated Sell 12" in a rising market.   How bearish are these?  We have to also
              consider the values of the OPct.  At the time of the recent Sell S12 on 10/21/2009, the OPCT
              was -.20. and IP21=.004.  It will take some effort to put all the data together.  This will appear
              in the next day.  Early returns suggest the S12 and a negative Opct are a reliably bearish
              combination.   While there is always a chance for a recovery now that the DJI is back to its
              21-day ma, S12s usually produce deeper declines, especially when the volume indicators
              are bearish, too. 


              Watch the Dollar.  If it rises and breaks its downtrend, it probably means that the FED will
              raise interest rates a point or two.  Banks might then sell the stocks they speculated with
              so cheaply at tax payer expense, rather than make loans.  Such expectations go a long way
              in explaining the mix of profit-taking, shorting and the the faltering breadth on the NYSE.
              The same message is being signalled by the way some gold and silver stocks now show
              unusually high distribution and are now falling.  See NEM and SSRI.  There was a reason they could
              not make new highs when the Gold ETF did.  If a stock can't make a new high with
              such background fan-fare, it usually has to decline to recharge.  I remind you that advances
              by gold are very often followed by a swooning stock market.

              Another thing to watch is how well stocks that show a lot of Blue Accumulation
              do as their prices fall to the key 50-day ma.  If many of these stocks sell off like
              NWK just did, wouldn't this suggest that big money is very skittish.  And that would
              not be a good sign.  They probably fear that a deeper retest of the lows will be needed.
              Indeed, "V" bottoms are relatively scarce.

                                       Price Pot-Holes Point To Problems in The Market

Serious Break Downs In High Accumulation Stocks Are Worrisome.               If these high Accumulation stocks don't hold up, is big money getting nervous again.               Were these stocks just pumped up only to be dumped on the unspuspecting public on the way down.              Here are some high Accumulation stocks to watch that have broken their 50-day ma:              AMCS, ATRI, ATSI, BAMM, CAVM, CRED, MEDQ, SMRT              Some interesting shorts are AAI, ARQL, ASFI, AYR, BAC, CAL. CSFG, LNET, SMRT

           S12 Statistics

             Rising Markets:(above 65-dma): S12s with no Near-By S4,S6, S9  
             ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         6/12/35    117.1   Reversal loss -8.7%  OP= +.072  Avoided using A/D Line trend-break clinching.
         6/24/35    120.    Reversal loss -6.1%  OP= +.067  Avoided using A/D Line trend-break clinching.
         7/27/38    140.20   fell directly to 136.90 and lower band. OP= +.014
         8/5/38      144.50  fell directly to 136.90 and lower band.  OP= +.028
        8/24/38      143.50  fell immediately, reaching  129.90 below lower band a month later.  OP= -.174
       
          3/16/1967  868.49   fell directly to 842.43 .025 lower band in 3 weeks. OP= +.017
         4/21/1967  883.18    Rallied to 899.89 and fell below lower band in a month, 899.89. OP= +.179
         9/14/1967 929.44   Rallied to 937.18 and   fell below lower band in 6 weeks to 850. OP= +.109
         1/9/1968   908.29    Rallied to 900.24 and  fell below lower band in 19 weeks to 825. OP= +.158
         7/11/1968 922.82   Fell immediately, reaching  870.37 below lower band 3 weeks later.   OP= -.008
        
         10/21/1975   846.82  Rallied to 860.67 and then fell slightly below lower band, 793.80, on 9/30/75 .OP= +.125 
         7/17/1978      839.05    Fell only to 21-dma immedately and then rallied  OP= +.051
         9/11/1978     907.74     Declined to lower band at 857.16 in 7 trading days and rallied  OP= +.187
         4/1/1981    1014.14     Rose to 1024.05 and fell to the lower band in a month, 963.33    -.052
         1/6/1983     1070.92     Rose to 1083.79 and fell to the lower band in 3 weeks, 1030.17    -.134
       
         1/6/1984  1286.64    Immediately declined below lower band to 1134.63 on 2/23/1984   OP= -.154
         10/7/1997   8178.31  Immediately declined below lower band to 7161.15 on 10/27/1997 OP= +.118  
         6/18/1999  10855.55   DJI rallied to 11300 in 2 months before falling to 10019.71 on 10/15/1999  OP= +.046 
         7/17/2000  10804.27 Fell immediately to 10511.17 on 7/28/2000, then rallied to 11259.87 on 9/7/2000 and
                                   then fell to 9975.02 on 10/18/2000    OP= +.193  and  OP= +.12 on 2nd S12 two days later.
         12/8/2000  10712.91 Fell immediately to lower band, 10487.29,  on 12/21/2000  
                                    and then to 9389.48, on 3/22/2000  OP= -.156
  
          10/15/2009 10062.94 (Dial Data corrected data)  OP= -.07
          10/21/2009 9949.36  (Dial Data uncorrected data)  OP= -.208
 
             Falling Markets (below 65-dma): S12s with no Near-By S9, S6
              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             12/5/1929 251.50 .... peaked 4 days later at 260 and fell to 230.90 on 12/20/1929  OP= -.108
             7/15/1930     233.80 ...peaked 2 weeks later at 240.80 and fell below lower band to 217.20 on 8/12/1930
                                                OP= -.304
             10/26/1931   106.49   immediately declined to lower band at 100.70 on 10/29/1931 OP= -.159
             7/20/1932   LOSS =  - 9.7%   OP= -.126
             12/15/1932   61.20   immediately declined to lower band at 56 OP= -.005
             3/20/1933    LOSS =  -7.3%    OP=   .134
             11/14/1933   95.50 ...peaked at 101 and fell to lower band at 95.30 on 12/20/1934 OP= +.172
             12/1/1933   98.90 ...peaked at 101 and fell to lower band at 95.30 on 12/20/1934 OP= +.095
             12/14/1933 101.4 ...peaked at 102 and fell to lower band at 95.30 on 12/20/1934   OP= +.061 
             10/16/1969  838.77 ...Rallied to 860 and fell below the lower band in 2 months, 12/17/69, 769.93 OP= -.094
             1/2/74   855.32   Rallied to 800 and then fell below lower band to 803.90 on 2/11/1974  OP= -.074  
             10/18/1974    654.88  Rallied to 675 and fell below the lower band in 7 weeks, 12/6/74, 577.60    OP= -.145  
              8/8/2002     8712.02   Rallied immediately to 9053.64 on 8/22/2002
                   and then fell below lower band, 7286.27, on 10/9/2002 97. OP= -.254
             1/6/2003    8773.57   Rallied immediately to 8842.62 and then fell below lower band, 7524.06, on 3/11/2003. OP= -.046

               Special Case:  Rebounding to Falling 65-dma
               ----------------------------------------------
     6/1/1936   152.80 LOSS fell to 21-dma at 150 and then rallied past resistance of 65-dma.    OP= +.239
     6/12/1936   153.70 LOSS  fell to 21-dma at 150 and then rallied past resistance of 65-dma.  OP= +.096
     6/25/1936   158.60 LOSS fell to 21-dma at 150 and then rallied past resistance of 65-dma.    OP= +.164    
    11/20/1997  7826.61    Rallied immediately to 8149.13 and then fell to lower band, 7660.13, on 12/24/1997. OP= +.167 
    4/5/2004     10558.37 DJI fell immediately to lower band, 9906.91, on 5/17/2004 OP= -.131
    6/30/2006   11150.22  DJI fell immediately to lower band, 9906.91, on 7/14/2006 OP= -.215
  

===================================================================================
            10/23/2009 WATCH THE A/D LINE OF THE NYSE.

                    The excellent breadth has kept the 7 month 2009 rally going long beyond where a simple
             study of daily volume might have thought possible, so low was the volume on much of the rally s
             since March.  

                     But now we should ask: "What will happen if the good breadth ends?"  The growing investor
             optimism and the stock market's direction and apparent safety may change rather sharply.  To see this,
             I suggest looking at the reversal upon the occurrence of a clinched Sell S12 in early 2002.  The break in
             the long NYSE A/D Line uptrend was the light switch!  That was also when interest rates were
             kept artificially low after the 9/11 attack.  Of course, 2002 saw the run-up to a new war.  Had Bush,
             Cheney or the CIA Director been of a different mind, my guess is the 2002 DJI decline would have
             been much more shallow.

                                                            2002 Top and Clinched Sell S12.



                    The new Peerless Sell S12 has not been clinched.  Since 1929, there were 4 failures to
             bring declines in the 16 Peerless Sell S12s when market circumstances were passingly similar
             to the present.   I said last time that waiting for the signal to be "clinched"   reduces the number
             of failed S12 to 3 in 15 cases and often produced a better signal if the DJI did rally. Using the
             clinching rule sacrifices little unless you are trading index options when premiums often expand
             and contract considerably within each day depending on how strong or weak the market looks
             at that point.   

             The internals of the market are NOT so bearish now to make me think the current Sell S12
             will bring more than a 7% decline in the DJI from 10000, if a decline does follow.  Keep in mind
             that the period from the third week of November to the end of December is the most bullish
             seasonal period in the year.  In addition, we just do not see bearish technicals and head and
             shoulder top patterns in the individual DJI-30 stocks.  Not many of them look very
             bearish at this stage.  See the charts of the weakest DJI-30 stocks, as of Friday.

THE WEAKEST DJI STOCKS ILLUSTRATE WHY SHORTING MAY NOT
PRODUCE BIG GAINS NOW.

Shorting a stock above a rising 65-day is risky, because of how
often a stock rebounds on declines to the zone between the rising
50-day ma and rising 65-day ma, even when internals are weak, 

Shorting those with confirmed weakness on a decline below the
50-day ma with a falling 65-day ma is ideal. VZ is the closest to
this ideal but it would seem to have lots of support at 26-27,
so there is little gain potential. 

S9=Negative Non-Confirmation of a stock at new high 
with negative Accum. Indexin last 2 months.

Symbol S9* Red   All        Falling        Below    Falling   Below    Falling
          Distr. Indicators Closing Power  50-dma   50-dma    65-dma   65-dma 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
AA    yes yes               yes             no       no        no        no
BAC   yes yes               yes             yes      yes       yes       no
CSCO  yes yes               yes             no       no        no        no
DD    yes yes               yes             no       no        no        no
GE    no  yes    Bearish    yes             yes      no        no        no
HD    no  no     Bearish    Yes             yes      no        yes       no        
INTC  yes yes    mixed      Yes             no       no        no        no
KFT   no  no     Bullish    no              no       yes       yes       yes
MCD   yes yes    mixed      no              no       no        no        no
MMM   yes yes    Bullish    no              no       no        no        no
T     yes yes    Bearish    yes             yes      no        yes       no   
VZ    no  Yes            Bearish                yes                                    yes                 yes                   yes                   yes

                  10% Decline.  A 10% decline did occur in the summer of 1975 after a 7 month advance off a severe
             bear market bottom.  Another reason for consider a decline to 9000 possible is simply that the
             FED may change its collective mind and raise interest rates sooner than Bernanke has said, to try to 
             shore up the Dollar which is down about 20% since March.  Also, a cessation in the overt, blatant 
             government's coddling of the biggest banks with trillions from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve 
             is now being talked about more fervently on TV than ever before. The public's distrust of both political 
             paries in this matter is serious.   One of the political parties will surely see the opportunity here.
             As a result, bank and housing stocks, as well as low priced stocks are showing the most weakness, 
             along with certain telecommunications' stocks in  DJIA like VZ and T.  

                    The uptrend-lines for the A/D of the NASDAQ-100 and SP-500 stocks are still intact.  Friday saw 
             huge gains in AMZN and MSFT.  MSFT's jump owed to its launching Windows-7.  This has been 
             widely anticipated; so, many professionals sold into the public buying.  This is what MSFT's new Tiger
             "S9" is saying.   Often it is a sign of danger when a few stocks make very splashy gains.  But I would rather 
             see high priced stocks making these big gains than low priced stocks.  The public tends to
             avoid high priced stocks, though AAPL and AMZN are exceptions.   Below is the 1975 chart.  Like now,
             there were non-confirmations by OBV and the Cumulative Inverted Traders's Index.  The IDOSC
             was much weaker.  The break in the A/D Line then did not follow a Sell S12, though.

                                 Summer 1975 10% Decline Was Predicted by Volume Non-Conformations,
                           then Steep A/D Line Trend-Break followed by Breaks in 50-Day and 65-day MAs
                           and Break in more gradual, well-tested A/D Line Uptrend.                               

             Conclusion - WATCH THE A/D LINE OF THE NYSE MONDAY and TUESDAY.

              NYSE's  A/D Line still uptrending but on verge of trend-break.          


        OIL STOCKs'  A/D Line still uptrending

      GOLD and SILVER STOCKs'  A/D Line still uptrending

    SP-500 A/D Line still uptrending

     FINANCE STOCKS' A/D Line still uptrending

      LOW PRICED STOCKS' A/D Line IS DOWNTRENDING.


======================================================================
         10/22/2009    Wait for A "Clinched" S12


                       The DJI's against the Peerless S12 is not so atypical.  From 1929 to 2009 there
             were 15 cases that might be loosely compared to the current market environment.  They
             are shown below.   The conclusion I reach is that we must see the A/D Line uptrend break
             before expecting the DJI to decline.  Waiting for the A/D Line ot break its uptrend would
             never have meant a bigger loss selling short the DJIA on the S12.  It would have prevent
             the moss in June 1986.  In several cases it would have meant selling at or very close to the
             top, instead of prematurely: 1930, 1966 and 1998.  Waiting for the A/D Line would have not
             meant shorting more than 2% down from the Sell S12.  When the clinching takes place,
             we will go short the weakest of the major market ETFs.  Right now that is IWM.

                      Short-term traders can still, if they are nimble, buy and trade horizontal breakouts:
            See TMI,  RDCM, LZ, LOOP, KVN, IGTE, ECTX. CRMT and ACF for ideas.
             
             PEERLESS S12s - 1928-2009
                     S12s after 4 Months' Rally of 20% above A DJIA Bottom:   16 cases - 1930-2009

                     "IL" - immediate loss.  In 6 cases the DJIA rose against the Sell S12. 
                     Click on the year to see the chart.

     IL           1930  S12 (March -275) DJI rallied to 292 
                              A/D Line break was a month later and DJI then fell in two weeks to 252.

                   1932   S12 (August -  76.2) DJI almost immediately declined 65 in 2 weeks.
                              A/D Line break was a day later.
                   1933 S12 5(June - 102.7) DJI immediately declined to 86.61
     IL           1935  S12 + Loss if short on S12 (DJI-135.5) and rally to 149.
                              break in NYSE A/D Line  144.70 to 138
                    1938   S12 in July and August (140) brought declines from upper band to136.5.
                              Waiting for A/D Line uptrendbreak works well.
     IL            1959  S12 (July 1 - 650.5 ) rose to 680 over next month.
                              After A/D Line uptrend was broken, the DJI fell to 618.
                     1966 S12 (January - 990) DJI went sidewise for a month and then fell to 910.
                              Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken worked well. 
                     1967 3 S12s - Each brought a decline ot lower band.
                               Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken worked well. 
                     1987 3 S12s  
                               May -  DJI Immediately declined to Low Band
                               Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken lost 2% on decline to lower band.
     IL                     June - New Buy signal correctly caused a small loss as DJI rallied.
                              Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken would have avoided a bad S12.
                               October - DJI Immediately declined to far below Lower Band
                               Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken  lost 2% on decline
                                             far below lower band.
                    1997 September - DJI immediately decline from 8178 to 7200.
                                             Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken lost 2% on decline
    IL             1998 July - DJI - 9085 - Rallied for a week to 9359 and then fell to 7500
                                             Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken meant shorting at top.
                     2002 May - DJI - DJIA fell far below lower band to 7500
                                             Waiting for A/D Line uptrend to be broken meant shorting 2% lower.


==================================================================================

               10/21/2009     NEW PEERLESS SELL S12. 
                   ---        SHORT THE STOCHASTIC SELLS WITH WEAK INTERNALS.
                   ----        A DJI Decline of 6% Would Be Typical for A Peerless Sell S12.
                  ----        Hold The Highest Accumulation Stocks (over 175) and Gold Stocks....
                  ----        Stocks with Steep Closing Power Up Trend-Breaks Ought To Be Sold.

                          The Dollar remains very weak.   Bernanke says interest rates will not go up
                          until next year because of the fragility of the economy.  But the pressure is
                          mounting on him to stem the Dollar's decline.  Might the Treasury Sell Its Gold?
              

                         

                                        The Worst of Both Worlds plus Racing Inequalities

                        One of things that is spooking the market is the growing fear that there has not been
                 enough improvement in business on Main Street and none whatsoever in the area of
                 JOB CREATION. 
                      "It is widely believed that before companies begin adding full-time workers,
                         they increase the hours of their part-timers and hire more temporary workers.
                         So if employment is picking up, the phones should be ringing at staffing companies
                         including Manpower Inc., Robert Half International Inc., Kelly Services Inc.,
                        and Monster Worldwide Inc.

                But it just isn't the case. Revenue and earnings are continuing to fall sharply at Manpower
                and Robert Half.  In July, Manpower Chief Executive Jeffrey Joerres said the Milwaukee-based
                company hadn't seen any signs of "real recovery." He added that September and October were
                traditionally strong months and would provide a good indication of a job recovery this year.
                And he's still looking" (Source: Wall Street Journal - 10/21/2009 )




                 I have shown in a recent Blog that the rate of unemployment on average takes 7 months
                 of a rising, recovering stock market before it starts to drop.  And sometimes, it takes a
                 year.   
                       TigerSoft Blog  October 15, 2009   Unemployment Statistics: The Real Story. 

                 So, a little more patience might be needed, were it not for the continuing pessimism
                 among people who watch the data most closely.

                                            POVERTY--->DEPRESSION-->POVERTY--->DEPRESSION

                        Severe inequality explained the disappearance of consumer demand in the depths
               of the Depression.  It was both cause and the effect of the Depression.  The unequal distribution
               of wealth in the US in 2007 was as high as it was it was in 1928. 

                      What can we say positive about an economy that has a real rate of unemployment
               of 15% and a rapidly falling currency?  That's the situation in the US now.  At least, you
               say, the stock market has been rallying.  But for how much lomger?  Eerily, what the DJI
               has achieved is the same percent recovery off the 6450 March bottom that it lost down
               at 6450 from the 14160 October 3007 high.  Ominously, this pattern, where the recovery's gain
               percentage matched the previous bear market's percent decline, was also present in 1930. 

               So, let's look again at the mid 1930 chart, to be sure we are not techncially in a similar position.  
               Then as now, there were Sell S12 signals showing the DJI had reached the upper band
               with the Accumulation Index in negative territory.  In other words, insiders and big
               holders of stock were so heavily selling into early strength that prices closed near
               their lows, just as they did today.   (The charts are at the bottom of this say's section.)

               We cannot be sure if this will not be another 1930!! 

                         1) If anything, the downside volume is now much higher relative to upside volume
                    than it was in the last 3 months of the 1930 false rally.

                         2) Breadth (advances minus declines) is stronger. But we can see from the
               1929-1930 chart that once the long (6 month), well-tested A/D Line uptrend was violated,
               there was a wholesale deterioration in all technical indicators. 

                        3) In the 1929-1930 period, red Distribution predominated.  That is not true in 2009.
                This is a good sign.  Bit how much of the buying was done by banks that could borrow money
                for 1/4% from the Fed?

                         4) Peerless Buy signals based simply on momentum, like the B15, are not to be trusted
               if the long A/D Line uptrend is broken. 

               The technicals and internal strength indicators will have to hold up well to get new buy
               signals on a decline.  



                                  A Decline Was Expected.   That Will Help Bolster The Market.

                 We should not be too surprised by a sell-off from the DJIA-10,000 psychological resistance.
                 A 10% decline to 9200 would actually be constructive.  We just ahve to wait and watch
                 the technical indicators.  For now, enjoy the show.  Wall Street acts like a spoiled and
                 manipulative cry-baby turned adosescent.  Since 1982 Wall Street has come to expect
                 Washington to always indulge and forgive its every whim and greedy indulgence. So, naturally,
                 it declines now that Congress is moving to set up a consumer protection agency overseeing
                 the financial world to take up the immense slack left by the industry-captured SEC.   

                     Meawwhile, the US Treasury has been looted by the opportunists who profited from the trillion
                 Dollar Iraq War and the Trillion Dollar Bank Bailout.  So, there is no money left for job-intensive,
                much needed public works programs to reruild the nation's aging, cracking infrastructure.
                Clearly, Obama is not an FDR or a Eisenhower, when it comes to visions of public works' jobs.
                Whereas FDR was long used to dealing with Wall Street as Governor of New York, Obama
                seems only to know about making speeches that conceal broken promises. So, America faces
                an economic reality far worse than STAGFLATION.  We see a  middle class in many areas of
                country that is being ravaged by debts, no income and a collapsing dollar.  A majority still
                believe in Obama.  But that will not last if all his words yield little or nothing.   Sure, as he
                is always reminding us in his daily speeches, it is true that he inherited a mess, but his Treasury
                Secretary and the industry-captured Federal Reserve have squandered at least a
                trillion on the very fraud merchants and stock manipulators that created the mess.  40 million
                Americans lack jobs.  Not good paying jobs.  Just jobs!.   

                                                                          The Market
        
                Today the DJI's closed 160 points dowm from the first hour's peak above 10100.  Closing at it
                lows, as it did today, has a depressing effect on the Tiger Accumulation Index.  With the DJI
                having today tagged the 3.5% upper band with the Accumulation Index now at -.023, there
                is a negative non-cofirmation in the DJIA, just like the TigerSoft S9s in individual stocks
                we have been mentioning for a week.  So, today the technical conditions were met for a
                Peerless S12.  Since we have been calling for a decline for the last few trading days, this
                ratifies and reinforces what we have been saying. already.  

                Gargage in - Garbage out.  If we not had problems with Dial Data recently getting
                the data needed for Peerless, we probably would have gotten a Sell S12 a few days ago.
                Yahoo's data, which we substituted is not always exactly the same.  Since 1990, we have
                relied on Dial Data.  So, I think it's best to keep using it.  When it doesn't come in properly,
                I will more effort to get them to provide it the next day.  Here is the DJI chart using only
                DIAL DATA.  ((not yet posted...)

                What follows is the track record of Peerless S12s since 1942.

Peerless Sell S12s: 1942-2009

Date                          DJI           Gain
-------------            -----------      --------
 5 / 11 / 1942               99.2         -.07 
 12 / 6 / 1956               492.7         .046 
 7 / 1 / 1959                650.2         .019 
 5 / 18 / 1960               623          -.005 
 7 / 10 / 1962               586           .012 
 1 / 18 / 1966               994.2         .22 
 9 / 15 / 1966               814.3         .069 
 10 / 26 / 1966              801.11        .014 
 3 / 16 / 1967               868.49        .024 
 4 / 21 / 1967               883.18        .014 
 9 / 14 / 1967               929.44        .075 
 1 / 9 / 1968                908.29        .078 
 7 / 11 / 1968               922.82        .048 
 10 / 16 / 1969              838.77        .075 
 1 / 2 / 1970                809.7         .042 
 7 / 15 / 1970               711.66        .006 
 8 / 23 / 1971               892.38        .083 
 8 / 31 / 1971               898.07        .088 
 5 / 22 / 1972               965.31        .056 
 8 / 3 / 1972                947.7         .027 
 1 / 12 / 1973               1039.36       .082 
 7 / 12 / 1973               901.94        .031 
 1 / 2 / 1974                855.32        .036 
 2 / 22 / 1974               855.99        .314 
 6 / 7 / 1974                853.72        .312 
 10 / 16 / 1974              642.28        .061 
 10 / 18 / 1974              654.88        .079 
 8 / 29 / 1975               835.34        .012 
 10 / 21 / 1975              846.82        .025 
 3 / 25 / 1976               1002.13       .036 
 7 / 17 / 1978               839.05       -.057 
 9 / 11 / 1978               907.74        .088 
 10 / 10 / 1978              891.63        .072 
 10 / 11 / 1978              901.42        .082 
 1 / 17 / 1980               886.57        .123 
 1 / 2 / 1981                972.78        .035 
 4 / 1 / 1981                1014.14       .169 
 1 / 6 / 1983                1070.92       .038 
 1 / 7 / 1983                1076.07       .043 
 1 / 6 / 1984                1286.64       .121 
 5 / 6 / 1987                2342.19       .052 
 6 / 8 / 1987                2351.64      -.04 
 10 / 2 / 1987               2640.99       .303 
 10 / 7 / 1997               8178.31       .083 
 11 / 20 / 1997              7826.61       .009 
 7 / 7 / 1998                9085.04       .16 
 4 / 7 / 1999                10085.3      -.056 
 6 / 18 / 1999               10855.55      .042 
 8 / 17 / 1999               11117.07      .064 
 12 / 17 / 1999              11257.43      .026 
 7 / 17 / 2000               10804.27      .01 
 7 / 19 / 2000               10696.08      0 
 12 / 8 / 2000               10712.91      .113 
 4 / 10 / 2001               10102.74     -.051 
 10 / 10 / 2001              9240.86      -.002 
 5 / 14 / 2002               10298.14      .205 
 8 / 8 / 2002                8712.02       .046 
 1 / 6 / 2003                8773.57       .052 
 4 / 5 / 2004                10558.37      .054 
 6 / 30 / 2006               11150.22      .031 
 12 / 6 / 2007               13619.89      .107 
==========================================================
               Number of trades =  61                   Avg. Gain=  6.3% 

                              DJIA: 1929-1930 FALSE RALLY             
 

 
                                                           1929-1930 Blue Accumulation was inferior to
                                                                         the amount of Red Distribution.
           
 

           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------