(C) 2009, William Schmidt, Ph.D.

Predicting The QQQQ Using TigerSoft's Opening Power,
                 Closing Power and Tiger's Day Traders' Tool: 1999-2008

                7/31/2009              
                                                      5-day chart               

                
                                                          Click on links to see charts        
           DJI       9172   +.19%                  DIA       91.67  +.27%            SPY      98.81 +0.14%
              NASDAQ    1978.5 -0.29%         QQQQ   39.45 +.30%            IWM   55.57 -0.41%  
              USO     36.81 +3.72%                   Dollar             GLD     93.35 +1.89%     SLV  13.70  +3.40% 
             Highest Priced DJI-30 Stocks   IBM  117.93 +.07   XOM 70.39 -.33      CVX 69.47 +1.77
             Investment Bank Stocks            GS   163.30 +0.88    JPM   38.65 +.18     MS  28.50 +0.14
             Other leading stocks:  GOOG  443.05  -2.59     AAPL  163.39 +0.60  AMZN 85.76   -.33   
             Also     F  8.00 +0.61    VISA   65.46 -1.75   QCOM  46.21 -0.31   SNE (Sony)  27.96 +0.68

      7/31/2009    Peerless Is Still Operating under a Buy B12.

                   Without a sell signal from Peerless and clear breaks in the Closing Power uptrend-lines
               of the key ETFs,  I think prices have to be given more chance to rise.  Quite a few
               low-priced NASDAQ stocks are very over-bought, having made several lurches upwards
               more than 20% over their 50-day ma.  So, a rotation back into "safer" blue chips and
               gold stocks seems likely.  Watch the US Dollar's action tomorrow.  It is again below 79.
               Crude Oil is moving up again, both on an Opening basis and after the Opening and to the CLose.
               This condition we describe as "BOTHUP".  New software showing Buy signals when this
               condition occurs works well in very volatile markets.  With Crude Oil, the gain has been
               very high.

                 If the Dollar breaks down, it will eventually put pressure on the Fed and Geithner to move  
               to raise interest rates, to discourage more stimulus packages and raise taxes.  






. 

  
                                                   QQQQ Has Achieved A True 50% Recovery.

              DJI has now recovered 50% of what it lost from July to March.  But this is misleading.
              In 2007 the DJI topped out at 14164.  It closed at a low of 6547 in March 2009.  It thus
              fell 7817 points.  A 50% recovery of the entire loss would mean a rally of 3909 points
              off the low.   10456 is the real 50% retracement target. 

                                  2007 High                2009 Low             50% Retracement        High This Year   Now
             DJIA                  14164                      6547                         19456                       9270                   9171.61
             NASDAQ            2859                       1269                          2044                        2000                  1978.50
             SP-500                 1562                         677                          1130                        1000                   987.50
             QQQQ                    54                        25.74                        39.87                         40                      39.45

             With the QQQQ now having achieved the 40 resistance and the NASDAQ's relative strength
             indicator (NASDJI) negative, it is probably a good idea to take profits in some of the NASDAQ
             stocks.   When their Closing Power uptrend are violated, they become vulnerable.  Many are up
             more than 20% over their 50-day ma, have already tripled or more and have had warning
             Sell S24, S25, or S26 signals.  A subsequent clear breaking of their 10-day ma in these conditions
             on a closing basis should be used by traders to take profits now, I'd say.  The Low Priced Stock's
             Index is still in an uptrend; as its A/D Line.




                 Use of 10-day ma to lock in profits seems prudent. Two examples: BOOM and BIOS


                




    -------- SUPERIMPOSED PEERLESS SIGNALS ON DJIA ---------

7/30/2009   Peerless remains on a Buy.  Closing Powers Are Still Rising.  Enjoy The Rally.

      New Recovery High Today - that's bullish, though prices did not close near their highs.  It is not
      uncommon for prices to close off their highs when prices are moving up through overhead resistance.
      The day after Obama's Election, November 5th 2008, saw a sharp sell-off from above 9600 to
       9138.  That sudden reversal created lots of overhead supply of stock, whose owners want now to
       get out even on. 

        Today the NYSE A/D Line made another 12 month high.  It is much, much stronger than the DJI.
        This does not preclude a bear market, as the excellent breadth for eight months after 9/11/2001
        showed.  But even in 2002, as long as the NYSE A/D Line stayed above its 21-day ma or until
        a new Peerless Sell signal was seen, it paid to wait for still higher prices for most stocks.  However,
        when the NYSE A/D Line long uptrend was broken, prices deteriorated quickly.  The chart for
        2001-2002 is shown further below.

       Breadth has been very good. The frequency of days of super breadth has no precedent, that
       I am aware of, for the start of a bull market.   Today the number of NYSE Advances (2432)
       exceeded Declines (625) by almost 4 to 1.  Here is a simple monthly count of the number of days
       when there was a 3:1 positive breadth since the bottom in March this year.  This count compares
       very favorably to the start of other big bull markets: 2003, 1982, 1975 and 1962

                                     Monthly Count of The Number of Days
                    of A 3:1 Positive Ratio of Daily NYSE Advancers to Decliners
                    Following A Market Bottom at The Start of A New Bull Market. 
                                ----------------------    2009  -------   2003     ---------- 1974-5   ---------  1962
       First Month - Month of Bottom      10      3/03      0         12/74          1          10/62      1
       Second Month  (April  2009)             7     4/03       1        1/75            4          11/62      6
       Third Month  (May  2009)               4     5/03       2        2/75            1          12/62      0
       Fourth Month  (June 2009)               3     6/03       1        3/75            3          1/63         2
       Fifth Month  (July 2009)                   5     7/03       1        4/75            0          1/64         0
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Total   29                   5                          9                         9

       -------  1942     ---------- 1938       ---------  1933        
         6/42      3            4/38       4                3/33      4
         7/42      4            5/38.      3                4/33      6
         8/42      1            6/38       7                5/33      7
         9/42      1           7/38        4                6/33      5
         10/42    2            8/38       4                7/33      3
         ---------------------------------------------------------
         Total    11                      22                         25

         It has been argued that the breadth figures in today's market are not representative of
         common shares generally.  That may be true.  So, here is the TigerSoft A/D Line for
         the NASDAQ-100 stocks.  (A chart for the SP-500 is not now available, but will be
         constructed over the enxt week.  It should help a lot.)

        

===================================================================================

      7/29/2009  New Indicator Suggests The Trend Is Still Up.

      The comments from July 28th seem still to apply. 

      But sometimes, it's a good idea to think creatively.   In that vein, I found the stocks that on
      a day by day basis best predict the direction of the DJI the next day.  (The TigerSoft
      programs have that capability.  Use TigerSoft + Run/Setups + Daily DJI Predictor of the DJI. )
      Then I built a chart with the DIA at the top and the A/D Line for this group of 15 stocks in
      5000 stocks,  each of which predicts the DJI direction the next day at a 53.6% rate or higher.
      The A/D Line trends as you can see below have a very good record for the last year. 

       DIA   2008-2009 and A/D Line for Stocks That Best Predict DIA
               
                                             
            DIA  2008  and A/D Line for Stocks That Best Predict DIA


                   WHAT STOCKS BEST PREDICT THE DJI'S DIRECTION THE NEXT DAY?
                                                                   1 Year of Data Only
                                  Success Rate
                                  -----------------
                    SKF        55.3%  +.04  Ultra Short Financials
                    NVDA     55.1%   -.26
                    SMTC     55.1%  +.27  Semtech
                    GSBC      54.8%  +.07
                    Dollar      54.5%  +.78
                    CTV        54.3%   -.51
                    STRT     54.3%   -.26
                    SWKS    54.3%   +.11
                    AXYS     53.6%    -.11
                    CHIC     53.6%   -.02
                    DDE       53.6%   -.18
                    GRR      53.6%    -.62
                    NUVA    53.6%   +.90
                    SGF        53..6%  -.17
                    TNB       53.6%    -.01

                    The ETFs themselves do not show a pattern of having an up day predict another up day,
                     or a down day predict another down day.

                    QQQQ   48.2%
                    SPY        44.3%
                     DIA       43.9%


===================================================================================
      7/28/2009    TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR A BREAKOUT.

      Peerless remains on a Buy.  The NYSE A/D Line, the Closing Power Lines and
      Cumulative Inverted MKDS are all still rising.  But there are risks now if the DJI does not
      achieve a much higher volume breakout past 9180 very soon.  It's probably a good idea to
      take some profits and look for a pull-back.  The danger is that Down Volume will start picking up,
      after a long lull in it.  Today, the DJIA did slightly fall on rising volume.

      The most disturbing aspect to the market has been the low volume.  It is not clear how prices
      will achieve a further advance without much more volume to eat up the over-head supply. 
      Leading stocks - like those shown above - turned down today.  That's a warning sign.  Of concern
      too, the 10-day Blue Up-Volume has turned down and the 10-day Red Down-Volume has turned
      up from a deeply over-extended low position.  See in the chart just below how this happened in August
      2008 and January 2009 right before significant market declines.   The DJI is clearly having trouble getting
      past the last resistance.  If prices cannot get past resistance very soon, they must fall back to
      find support.  The daily change volatility has declined sharply.  Another Sell S8 will occur in
      a few days if the daily change volatilty does not rise above its mvg. avg.  And if NYSE Down Volume
      starts rising, it will make the market look somewhat like it did in August 2008 and January 2009
      right before big declines.
     

           One more item of concern, very good breadth does not guarantee a rising market.  See the examples
    of 1968, 1976-1977 and 2001-2002.

     1968


      1976-1977


      2001-2002



===============================================================
    7/27/2009  PEERLESS REMAINS ON A BUY

            The DJIA still has not clearly taken out the last resistance line near 9000, but it is close
     to doing so.  And the other averages are much stronger.   The NYSE A/D Line is making 12 month highs.
     Stick with the trend as shown by the last major Peerless signal and the trend of the major market ETFs'
     rising Closing Power trends.  Buying the new highs after an intense bulge of Accumulation and holding
     until there are clear signs of weakness or a confirmed break of the stock's 50-day ma is working fine.
     See KONG's AI bulges above .50 in October and April.  

==================================================================================

           The DJI's breakout above 8940 has not yet led to a move past additional resistance at 9200.
        There is also still additonal resistance at 9200.  But flat tops usually bring breakouts.  1976
        is the major exception for the DJIA in 84 years.   Volume remains very low, but that has been true for
        most of the rally and prices keep rising.   Valid breakouts historically mearly always show more
        volume as prices surge past resistance.   The A/D Line and P-Indicator are in firm, even historically
       strong uptrends.   The QQQQ has now risen 13 straight days.  This is a record by a wide margin. 
       Ostensibly, this would seem to suggest caution.   But long streaks of up-days in the range of 6, 7,
       or 8 have been bullish for the QQQQ. 

            Peerless remains on a Buy B14/B12.  A Peerless reversing Sell  does not seem imminent.
        The Closing Powers for all the ETFs are rising.    The key index ETFs have all surpassed their
        52-week mvg.avgs. on the weekly chart.   DIA and SPY are still working on achieving 33% recoveries
        from its October 2007 peak.  Even in a bear market, this is normal.  The QQQQ seems headed for
        40, only a point higher.  The QQQQ charts viewed below show its:

                `1)   its own A/D Line, (Will Be posted later...)
                 2) TigerSoft's Opening Indicator and Closing Power -  BOTH Bullishly rising
                 3) TigerSoft's "ITRS" (50 day percent change of QQQQ verus the DJIA's percent change),   
                 4) TigerSoft's Day-Traders' Tool (the difference between the upside change after the opening
                 and the downside change after the close.)

         QQQQ is the strongest of the ETFs.  Its Internals are all rising using Closing Power, OBV,
         Relative Strength and the Accumulation Index.
.










 

             
                                                   


===================================================================================
        7/23/2009   B14, B12 and Breakout above well-tested
       horizontal resistance.

          The rally continued today, quite impressively.  Breadth and internal strength indicators are all bullish. 
          See how the NYSE A/D Line has reached levels not seen since last September.  Volume rose,
          but the 21-day ma of volume is declining.  Volume is needed to eat up over-head supply of stock. 
          It is only when the DJI is near all-time high territory that big rallies can take place without
          rising volume.  So, the target now becomes 9600, the level of the DJI on Election Night last November. 
          High accumulation new highs continue to behave very well. 

          My study of well-tested resistance level breakouts since 1915 shows that there are as many valid
          such breakouts without Buy B10s as those with Buy B10s.  So, not getting a Buy B10 today
          is not a problem.  Moreover, rallies without sufficient volume typically do not immediately fail
          the breakout unless there is also a Peerless Sell signal or a head and shoulders top develops. 
          Again, I say this based on studying 30 such cases where the DJI challenged a well-tested,
          horizontal resistance level going back 40 trading days from 1915 to the present.
                See    http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/Flat-Resistance/index.html    

          Accordingly, I would think prices will go higher and this breakout over 9000 will reach 9600 next.
          However, a failure of the DJI to stay above 8950 over the next 4 trading days would suggest a false
          breakout.  In that case, a decline by the DJI back to the lower lower band, as occurred in  January 1947,


================================================================================

       7/22/2009        PEERLESS REMAINS ON BUYS (B14 and B12)

                   The DJI is facing nearly flat resistance in the zone 8900-9050 that been tested
              six times, if we count each tagging of the resistance separated by 3 days.  Below
              is a link to my study showing all such cases of well-tested flat resistance
              for the DJIA since 1915.  The conclusions I reach from this effort are that:

             1) Volume must rise noticeably and even dramatically for a breakout to lead to a
             big advance;

             2) Even when there is a breakout on an increase in volume, the volume must continue
             to stay at a high level, or else there is a risk of a bearish head and shoulders pattern
             quickly forming and the breakout soon failing;

             3). Breakouts above flat resistance without an increase in volume may still produce
             a rise for in price for a few weeks, but not much more.

             4)  Usually, there is an upside breakout from a flat, well-tested resistance level.
             The odds of an upside breakout I reckon to be 4:1, looking back to 1915.

             5.) Hesitation between 8900-9100 for more than a week will increase the risk of
             a failure to breakout.

             6) An absence of an increase in volume soon will also increase the risk of a a failure
             to breakout.
  
             7) The Peerless automatic signals usually do what they are supposed to and tell us
             when to sell.

                   See all the charts at  http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/Flat-Resistance/index.html
              A full tabulation of results will be posted by tomorrow night.

                   In the 5-day chart above you can see that a DJIA move back above 8900 would
              move prices past the short-term downtrendline.   We also have to keep watching the
              Tiger Index of Low Priced stocks.  The second chart below shows its A/D Line is right
              at its resistance line.

                                    Well-Tested Horizontal Resistance



      ------- TIGERSOFT Index of 308 Low Priced Stocks --------




       7/21/2009    PEERLESS REMAINS ON BUYS (B14 and B12)

       The DJI's rally has reached an area of well-tested resistance between 8900 and 9100.
       The CLosing Powers of QQQQ and DIA are still rising.   SPY's and  MDY's (mid-caps) are flat.
       IWM's Closing Power has turned slightly down from the previous day.  All the QQQQ's
       and DIA's automatic technical evaluations are bullish.  The NASDAQ's OBV Line is scoring
       12 month highs by a wide margin.  This is a bullish sign.  Non-confirmations by the OBV Line
       of a NASDAQ new high can occur and they can also call important tops: 11/1/2007 and 6/5/2008.

        The fake-out below 8200 was a bear trap.   I doubt if this trap was sprung simply to get a
        trading range rally.  Even though volume is low, I believe the stealthy bull market in low
        priced stocks experiencing  insider buying will continue.  I created an index of stocks I
        would put in this category.  It is shown further below. Look at the high levels of Accumulation
        and how strong the A/D Line is for these stocks.    See the stock chosen for this index
        here.

     Wall Street's Stealthy Bull Market in Low Priced Stocks Continues.

       The NASDAQ-100 and high Accumulation Index breakouts are leading the rally upwards.
       Below are the TigerSoft charts of both, showing Accumulation and their Advances-Declines
       Line. 
        

                       NASDAQ-100 and A/D Line for NASDAQ-100      



       ------------ Explosive Super Stocks' INDEX ------------------



    
 
====================================================================================
            7/20/2009        DJIA= 9000  Should Be Tested. 
            Volume Needs To Pick up for A Breakout.
            Volume  and OPct Best Distinguish Take-Off Buy B12s from
            Being Just Notices That A Bull Market Lies Ahead.    

           The NASDAQ is clearly outperforming the DJIA.  See chart below.  Its OBV is much
           stronger than its price action.  Volume on up-days dominates now.  The DJI and NASDAQ
           have now risen 6 straight days. A retreat is possible, but my guess is that the DJI will
           get past 9000 to the surprise of the shorts.  A stealthy rally in high accumulation low-priced
           stocks continues with very little public notice.  There were a number of new highs
           among such stocks today.   See  www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/7-20-2009/index.html
           This has to be a constructive sign.  Watch the next few days to see if the A/D Line for
           our sample of low priced stocks can break its year-long downtrend.  Today there were 34
           new NASDAQ 52-week highs. Watch that number to see if it can expand.

      
                       NASDAQ MAKES RECOVERY NEW HIGH  
                  ITS OBV IS STRONG THAT IT MADE A 12-MONTH HIGH.
        ACCUMULATION IS POSITIVE - RELATIVE STRENGTH VERY POSITIVE
                                               VOLUME IS TOO LOW.


================================================================================

               7/19/2009    9000 Should Be Tested. 
                Volume Needs To Pick up for A Breakout. Volume
               and OPct Best Distinguish Take-Off Buy B12s from
               Being Just Notices That A Bull Market Lies Ahead.

              Before reading about the general market, consider running the  Power Ranking programs
              in search of Explosive Super stocks.  I have written two new sections for the Explosive
              Super Stocks book.  One is entitled AUGMENTED BUY B24s (the link to which will be on the
              Elite Stock Professional Page later tonight).  The other is WHEN TO SELL AN EXPLOSIVE
              SUPER STOCK.  I think the second will prove timely, given how much some of the high
              accumulation low priced stocks have risen since the March 9th bottom.

              A second Peerless Buy B12 reinforces the B14.  Two Buy B12s in close succession are
              more bullish than once.  We had one 2 months ago.  The severe bear market of 1973-1974
              ended and the 1975-1976 bull market was launched with a second Buy B12. 
              Read more about Peerless Buy B12s here.

             The DJI is now testing its resistance between 8750 and 8800
              from its early June advance.  Its last peak was a closing at 877.26 on 6/12/2009.  A well tested
              resistance line crosses at abut 8850.  Above that is the January 2nd, 2009 high closing of 9034.69.
              All these points could turn the DJI back down.  Almost half the Buy B12s do bring a decline back to
              the lower band. Such a decline is much more likely when the internals are not extremely positive  
              om the day the B12 occurred.  Here the OPct was only -.017.  OPct is a way of measuring aggressive
              buying and selling.  It takes aggressive buying to launch a bull market and get prices past earlier
              resistance levels.   Below are the past cases of B12s ith a negative OPct.  In only one case did |
              the market roar upwards, as it can with a Buy.  And that was a day when daily volume was more
              than twice is 21-day average.

    Buy B12s       Year             OPct      Result
    --------------------------------------------------------
                       11/5/1943        -.135    4% decline back to lower band and then  recovery.
                       10/14/1946       -.054    3% decline back to lower band and then modest recovery.                      
                       6/1/1970           -.125    7% decline back to lower band and then strong recovery.
                       10/10/1974       -.193    11% decline hotmail.comback totest lows and then strong recovery.
                      8/17/1982        -.306    Immediate Rally and start of powerful bull market.                                                         
           .                                              Here the daily volume was 100% above its norm for th last 21-days.

               Buy B12s are remarkable because they often do launch very bullish advances.  They did this
               usually with a big increase in volume and much higher OPct readings on the day of the Buy B12.
               These are the two characteristics that distinguish take-off Buy B12s and Buy B12s that
               show a bull market lies ahead, after a decline to the lower band.

    Buy B12s       Year             OPct      Vol/21dma Vol      Result
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          7/25/1932      .132        80%                       DJI rose 60% in next 6 weeks.
                          4/10/1933      .367        30%                       DJI rose 70% in next 13 weeks.
                          6/22/1938       .216      100%                        DJI rose 16% in next 4 weeks.  
                          1/28/1975       .574        80%                       DJI rose 20% in next 5 months.
                          1/5/1976         .432         80%                       DJI rose 14% in next 12 weeks.
                          8/17/1982      -.306      100%                       DJI rose 28% in next 16 weeks.
                          1/17/1991       .14        100%                       DJI rose 12% on 2 months.


                                                                                                                       OPCT = OP21












====================================================================================

              

              7/16/2008    A Peerless Buy B12 joins yesterday's B14.  The apex of the DJI's right shoulder has
              been broken above decisively.  This is reliably bullish.  In 5 of the 7 cases where a head and shoulders
              pattern was aborted in the DJI by the apex of the right shoulder being exceeded, very significant
              gains followed.  The charts may be seen at www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/7-16-2009/index.html  
              Below are the cases.
             
                     1.   July 1922  DJI rallied from 92 to 102 in 10 weeks.
                     2.   April 1945 DJI rallied from 159 to 169 in 6 weeks.
                     3.   August 1945   DJI rallied from 165 to 195 in 4 months.
                     4.   July 1951   DJI rallied from 255 to 276 in 2 months.
                     5.  April 1956 DJI rallied from 510 to 518 and then fell to 470/
                          The decline back below the apex point could have been used ot go short again.
                     6.   January 1995  DJI rallied from 3900 to 4600 in 4 months.
                     7.  May 1996  DJI rallied from 5650 to 5800 in a week and then re-tested the neckline
                          in July at 5350.

              The excellent breadth has brought today's Buy B12.  Read more about Buy B12s here.
                                             http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-B12.htm

                     "B12s are the most bullish of all Peerless signals.  They have launched many a
                      bull markets, as in 1947, 1950, 1953, 1958, 1970, 1971, 1975, 1976, 1982, 1991.  There
                      have been 25 closed out Buy B12 trades.  The average gain on the at the time of the
                     next Peerless Sell was +17.9% in 25 cases.  Only one saw a loss.

                     "B12's can start a bullish stampede into stocks.  In 12 cases, or 48% of the time,
                     very powerful rallies immediately followed.  They are not perfect,  of course.    In 4 of
                     the 25 cases the DJI declined more than 4.4% from the Buy B12, always to eventually
                    recover and move much higher.  Declines back to the lower band occurred in a
                    handful more cases." 


                                    Lots of "Augmented TigerSoft B24s":  That's Usually Bullish,
                             Especially When These Are Occurring In Many Indistry Groups, as Now.

               TigerSoft developed a powerful Buy signal called an augmented B24 for stocks and tested
               it extensively.  There are a number of stocks that have had such sugnals in the last 3 months.
               I take that to be a sign that a lot of insider capital is flowing into certain stocks.   As they
               have become tightly held and are doing well, they are now attracting "HOT MONEY",
               that seeks performance.  Just running through the alphabet to "I", the following were found:

               ATNI    AVNR  BAMM  BIOS  BKYF   BPSG  CCNE  CKEC   CLRT  COMS  CRGN 
               DDRX  DRCO  DTG   EEI  EJ  ELOY   EVOL  FIRE  GMTN  

               These can be bought on TigerSoft fix-rule Buys as long as they do not fall below their
               50-day ma.  Our Stocks' Hotline has bought more of these this week and covered
               its short sales as the CLosing Power downtrends are ended.


            

                           DJIA with Super-Imposed Peerless Signals




           

                                 DIA - ETF for DJIA Chart below   Note the bearish head and shoulders pattern
                           that was aborted yesterday in the DIA's Closing Power.   More closing strength should
                           be expected.    The bullish UP-UP condition exists now.  Both Opening and Closing Power
                           are rising.  Volume remains suspiciously low on this rally.   Wednesday'-are
                           up 57%. Tuesday's are up 50% and Fridays 54% of the time for the last year.
                           It's Mondays (29.1%) and Tuesdays (48%) that longs typically have to be worry
                           especially about.

                         
                 QQQQ Chart below  Its CCP broke out.  The Trend, Closing Power, Accum. Index
                          and OBV are all rated bullish.  The bullish UP-UP condition exists now.  Both Opening
                          and Closing Power are rising. Volume is still suspiciously low    
                          Mondays are up 35.4% of the time for the last year, Tuesdays 46.1% of the time.
                          Wednesday's 56.6% of the time and Thursday's 52% and Fridays 54% of the time.


 
                    
                  SPY Chart below.   Note the CPP head and shoulders has been aborted but the SPY's
                           CP went flat today.   Prices have broken above their 12-month downtrend but today they declined.
                        .  The Accum. Index is slightly positive.  This is not impressive.  Volume picked up today
                           on the decline.  Mondays for the last year have brought an SPY gain only 35% of the  time. 
                           Tuesdays - 52%,  Wednesdays - 55% Thursday's are up 58% and Fridays 58%.
 

                          IWM - ETF for Russell-2000 Chart below   Note the bearish head
                           and shoulders pattern that was aborted today in the DIA's Closing Power.   
                           More closing strength should be expected.    Volume remains suspiciously low on this rally. 
                           There is a lot of daily variation in the probability of a gain for th last year:
                           Monday 35.4%, Tuesday 52%,  Wednesday 60%, Thursday 50% and Friday 68%. 
 




==================================================================================
                7/15/2009 
                                        - New Buy B14. 
                                        - False Horizontal DJI Breakdowns Are Bullish.
                                        -   A move more clearly above the apex of the right shoulder
                                            would make the advance more convincing, given its low volume.
                                       . The excellent breadth favors smaller stocks.
                                       - High Accumulation, secondary stocks making new highs
                                         seem a lot more bullish than the DJIA.                             

                          The size of the rally today was a a surprise.  I'm sorry I did not see it coming. 
                  Time has been shrunk; moves that used to take a few days are now taking only a few hours.
                  The move has been explained as being the result of Intel's and Goldman's earnings.  I think
                  the continued low volume suggests two other more important factors: program trading
                  manipulation and short covering as shorts realized that a trap had been set for them on
                  the false breakdown below 8200.   This does not mean prices will reverse and go back to
                  8200.   A DJI drop to the 21-day ma at 8380 would be reasonable to expect. But the
                  superb breadth and B14 require us going long if prices move decisively above the apex
                  of the right shoulder.

                          Is this the start of a much bigger move?  Is it too late to buy?  It is reliably bullish when
                  the DJI surpasses its right shoulder's apex in a head and shoulders pattern that is being
                  aborted by the advance.  We must use the hypothetical high of the DJI to judge this.  Measured
                  this way, the right shoulder's apex on 7/1/09 was 8610.32.  So, the DJI has closed only
                  6 points over that level.  This is not much of a margin for an average that stands at 8600,
                  less than  .1%  There are a number of earlier cases where the apex of the right shoulder is
                  reached and then there is a pullback or even a breakdown.  Octover 1929's case is the
                  most ignominous.   Here is a study of a number of earlier false breakdowns below well-tested
                  horizontal support.   Usually, prices rally to recoveryhighs, at the least, if the apex is
                  clearly exceeded.

                                 www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/7-16-2009/index.html  
                                      

                  The danger now would be if the rally were to fizzle.  Many of the shorts that might
                  have cushioned a decline have now covered.



                         What is moat impressive now is the exceptionally positive breadth we have seen in two of the
                  last three days. Monday's NYSE advances outpaced declines by 2067 and today the difference
                  was nearly 2600.  The ratio of NYSE up volume to down volume was more than 26 to 1.
                  That more than satisfies the conditions for a Peerless Buy B14.  For datails about the B14
                  go to    http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B14.htm    I think it is bullish that this signal
                  did not occur once in the bearish period 1928-1941.   There have been  27 Buy B14s.  The
                  average gain at the time of the next Peerless sell signal is about 12%, but the gain was less than
                  5% in  14 cases.   There were 3 losses.  The last occurrence in March gained 4.0%.

                      The DJI is now 2.8% over the 21- day ma.   There have been 6 such cases among the
                  B14s.   None of these ended up losing money, though in two cases the gain was less than .7%.
                  The 1982 take-off began with a B14 that was 2.9% over the 21-day ma.  So, being this
                  far over the 21-day ma is not by itself a problem.

                                        FLAT R0C (Annualized Rate of CHnage of The 21-Day MA)

                      A key problem now is that the 21-day ma is essentially flat.  This strongly suggests that
                  it is much more likely that we are seeing a trading range rally, rather than a break-away advance.
                  The lack of volume now also dramatically decreases the odds of a breakaway rally, as in 1982.   
                  The annualized rate of daily change of the 21-day ma is now only .6%.  Here are the cases
                  when the DJI's 21-day ma ROC was between -.10 and +.10. There were 9 earlier cases of
                  such B12s.  In one case the DJI rose 27.2%,  in another it rose 6.4% and in a third, it rose 6.4%. 
                  Note that in 6 of the 9 such cases, it rose less than 3.5%.
 
                       B14 Data   DJI     CL/MA  ROC  P-I        IP21   V-I    OPct      Gain

                   1     3/9/1945 156.3   .985      .06   179  28      .133     242  .314      + .076
                                          DJI fell to 152.30 and then rose
                    2   10/15/1946 175.9  1.035    .098   30  27      .072      4    -.029     + .007
                                          This was bottom.  Rallied to 183.But low needed to be tested 7 months later.
                    3   9/9/1948   180.3  .989        .02    70  63       .11      17    .035      +   .033
                                          DJI fell to 176.. on 9/27/1949 and then rallied.
                    4   1/28/1982  864.25 1.011   -.056  -114 71     -.018   -5      .017       -.036
                                          DJI fell to 795.47 before rallying to 865.87 and then falling back again.
                    5   8/17/1982  831.24 1.029      .076   -66  65    -.064   -5     -.306    +.272
                                          DJI roared ahead in new bull market.
                    6   5/31/1988  2031.12 1.021  -.007     -87 41     .024   -4    .018    +.011
                                          DJI rose to top of trading channel.
                   7   1/19/2006  10880.71 1.00     .006     360 112   .02   -24    -.017   +.064
                                          DJI fell to 10667 on 1/20 and then rose.
                   8    8/29/2007  13289.29 1.004    .07      -69  139   .103   370  .209     + .035
                                          DJI rose to 14156 and then started a bear market.
                   9    3/18/2008  12392.66 1.011    .042   -327   138  .088   -263  -.029  +.013
                                          DJI rallied to upper band
                        7/15/2009    8616.21  1.028     .006   177  221   .001   -50       -.11

                          Again, the false breakdown is significant.  It has trapped a lot of bears.  I think it
                  requires a review of all the similar false horizontal breakdowns in the DJIA that
                  I can find historically.   The main concept here is that if closing prices within 4 days get
                  back above the horizontal breakdown point, it means a test of the apex of the right shoulder
                  when there is a head and shoulders pattern.   When there is no such head and shoulders
                  pattern, we can can simply become bullish when prices clearly surpass the point
                  of breakdown.  Look at the chart of the DJI back in 1983.    Another thing - false breakdowns
                  below a 3x or 4x tested horizontal support are rare.    They are significant traps. Often they
                  are not set unless there is much more upside potential in the market.  But for now, we need
                  a clearer move by the DJIA over the right shoulder apex.  

                                             Example of False Horizontal Breakdown in 1983.
                

                           
                 7/15/2009   Note New B14.  DJI closed at apex of previous right shoulder.
                 The NYSE A/D Line has bullishly made a marginal new high.  Volume on today's
                 rally is lower than it was on similar rallies a month and two months ago.  The DJI
                 has reached the resistance of its price downtrendline going back 11 months.  (This
                 is not shown here. But you can print this out and draw the line.)


       LOW PRICED STOCKS TURNED UP AT THEIR 65-DAY MA
             THEIR A/D LINE IS STILL DOWN-TRENDING.
                GREATER SELECTIVITY IS NEEDED.

                  Just below, the TigerSoft chart of a sample of 300 low priced stocks shows distribution and
             a falling A/D Line.  But prices did stop declining at their 65-day ma.  TigerSoft's Chinese stocks (below)
             also are holding above their 65-day ma.  The NASDAQ also turned up above its 50-day ma.   And
             Goldman Sachs' earnings should give cause for celebration in the financial sector.  These earnings
             have been priced into the stock's rise and it is now at the 150 resistance.

                 Take a look at this piece of information forwarded me by DC, my first customer in San Diego,
              back in August 1982.    http://www.cnbc.com/id/31852906  

       

                                                      TigerSoft Index of Low-Priced Stocks

              

                        UNDER-CONSUMPTION and DEFLATION
                          ARE NOW THE KEY CONCERNS AGAIN





                The US Dollar is below its blue 50-day ma and the Closing Power and Accum Index
                     are both bearishly downtrending and negative.




                  7/9/2009

         
         7/9/2009       Closing Power Trendline Suggestions:

        CP Trend-breaks can whipsaw, but overall they will keep you
         profitably in tune with the trend.   Flat CP support lines and
         flat CP resistance lines that have been three times tested
         are more important when penetrated than diagonal lines that
         are two times tested lines. 

            Head and shoulders CP necklines when violated are believed
         to be even more bearish.  See DIA CP last fall.

           Watch Opening Power.   When it and CP are rated "falling",
         it is a more bearish situation than when CP is falling and
         Opening Power is rising.  See DIA last fall.  That is its current
         status.

       
         Example - A Closing Power resistance line going through three
          peaks offers important resistance.   When this line is overcome.
          a good Buy is usually presented.  
                   ____________/(!) - breakout
                   /\       /\    /\  /
                  /   \    /   \  / \/
                \/       \/     \
         
        Example - A Closing Power support line going through four
           bottoms offers even more important support.  When this line
           is overcome, significant weakness usually follows.    
                   ____________  
                   /\       /\     /\  
                  /   \    /   \  /   \ /\
                \/       \/     \     \/   \             
                                         \(!) - breakdown
                                          \


         When the CP Line falls significantly away from a shallower
              trendline and sets up a steeper angle, use the steeper CP
              line to watch for trend-breaks.  Do the same with rising trends.
              Raise the trendline so it is steeper and goes through the
              most recent bottoms.
            \    _
             \  /  \
              \/     \/\
                      \     /(!)- breakout above steeper downtrendline.
                       \   /
                        \/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

         7/8/2009
         Sell S10 - Neckline in Well-Tested Head and Shoulders Pattern
             Has Been Violated.  7750 Is Minimum Target.   See also tables in 7/7/2009

                There were 960 more down than up on the NYSE despite the DJI's slight rally.  The many
              head and shoulders patterns in foreign ETFs makes the DJI's pattern's bearishness more credible.
             These patterns are reliably bearish.

             How serious is the Sell S10? There were 15 earlier cases of Sell S10 when there was a
             head and shoulders pattern and the DJI was not down more than 10%.  In 14 of 15 the DJI fell
             more than 5%. In 8 of the 16 cases the DJI fell more than 10% in the following 6 months.

            Will there be much of a rebound?
            In 10 of 15 cases there is a rebound before the big decline develops.  But waiting for a rebound
            is risky.  In the five cases there was no rebound, prices swooned badly.  When down-day volume
            does not pick up on the break of the neckline by much, there is more likely to be a rebound. 
            Only in two cases, 1946 and 1971, was the a recovery rally of about 5% from where the Sell S10
            occurred.

        GREAT BRITAIN - Completed Head and Shoulders Pattern



      BRAZIL - Completed Head and Shoulders Pattern

         

    CHINA - Shows An Emerging Head and Shoulders Pattern  
    Watch this pattern closely.   


  INDIA - Down-Sloping Completed Head and Shoulders Pattern

   LATIN AMERICA - Completed Head and Shoulders Pattern
  
     RUSSIA - Completed Head and Shoulders Pattern




      
               
                          USO  GLD  SLV - Downtrending Closing Powers.
                          Bearish head and shoulders patterns:  IBM, BA, BDK, UTX, NOC
                          TigerSoft Low-Price Index. 

                                          Cumulative MKDS and Its Trend Changes
                                                       Cum. MKDS Is Still Declining
   The Inverted MKDS represents the relationship between advancing and declining stocks and the volume in these
advancing and declining issues on the NYSE.  If there's more volume in advancing stocks, the inverted  MKDS
is greater than 1.0; but if there's more volume in declining stocks, it's below 1.0.  TigerSoft's Peerless program
includes the cumulative Inverted MKDS.  Richard Arms of Albuquerque is credited with popularizing the reciprocal.
soon after the data started being posted in Barrons in 1965, but many traders, including myself, were doing it
long before they heard of Arms.  It's not unlike bands a fixed percent below the 21-day ma.  I was the first
person to publish analyses based on what was a pretty simple concept, but I have never tried to insist that
all bands should be declared to be "Tiger-Bands".  So, I do not mention Arms in my work.




                           

                   

                                             Tiger Index of Low Priced Stocks


  ==================================================================================                      
                       7/6/2009

                       Buy B5 but note the Bearish Head and Shoulders. As emphasized here
                  frequently, this is potentially a reliable reversal formation, especially when volume and internal
                  strength indicators weaken noticeably on its right shoulder.   A close below the neckline
                  at 8200 would complete the pattern and bring either a Sell S10.  That's what we have to
                  be on guard for.  Until then, the operative Peerless signal is a Buy.  There are perhaps ten
                  cases since 1915 when the DJI started to form such a pattern, but it was never completed
                  and prices resumed their uptrend.  See how the pattern usually aborts and what predicts
                  its failure.   http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/July-6-2009/index.html    The best way to
                  judge that this is happening is to watch the P-Indicator and Accumulation Index, which we
                  would expect to be or turn positive again, and/or prices, which will move past the apex
                  of the right shoulder, here about 8600. 

                         Note that all the internal strength indicators are now negative.  Today's low volume rally
                  from the opening low keeps the Closing Powers uptrends alive in all the general market ETFs.
                  My opinion is that the rally would be more convincing if the price pattern did not look like
                  such a classic head and shoulders case.  I am also concerned about the excessive rises in
                  many low priced stocks in the last 12 weeks.  DDRX is the most extreme case that I'm aware
                  of this Spring; it rocketed up from less than .40 to 24.0 in 3 months.  This is a 60-fold increase.
                  If this is not dangerously "sloppy" buying, than nothing is.    Unfortunately, this reminds me
                  of the way unknown oil stocks with 2 or 3 employees,  roared upwards a year ago in frenzied
                  over-speculation, right before the general market crashed. 

                         Another two weeks of sidewise action in the DJI between 8200 and 8600 would
                  be in keeping with the symmetry of such classic head and shoulders patterns.  Watch the
                  NYSE A/D Line for good clues.  The NYSE A/D Line is still uptrending, but today, though
                  the DJIA and SP-500 rose, there were 600 more down than up.


                       7/2/2009    Will The Head And Shoulders Pattern Be Completed in The DJI?  Watch Closely.
                                          The Buy B5 Will Be Reversed by A Sell S10 if The DJI Closes Below 8200.

                                                         The Honeymoon Bounce May Be Over.

                                       VP Biden's statement that the Administration under-estimated how fast unemploy-
                        ment would rise is not going to build much investors' confidence.  And if the White House can't
                        get a better grasp of what's going on with the economy, why should anyone trust his next
                        simulative efforts?   Keynes was probably right.  But the Administration keeps twisting
                        its polices to serve its friends.  It is going to have a very difficult task going forward
                        pushing for truly needed public works programs - like bullet trains, new energy
                        projects, re-forestation, clean waters, de-salinization, public encouragement for more
                        people to enter nursing and a developing a domestic educational Peace Corps for the poorest areas
                        of the country. 

                                      Talk will not do it.  The honeymoon is ending.  Even the media may conceivably
                       become more critical of him   The belief that Obama's  people only end up rewarding and
                       repaying their closest political friends, like they have Wall Street bankers, is taking hold.  
                       And we who live California now see that the State of California will be issuing IOUs, rather
                       than checks, and that Bank of America will be glad to cash these IOUs and charge the
                       State 3.5%.  Obama seems incapable of direct solution.  There is no Emergency Fund
                       for States with an interest rate of .5%.  Instead the banks get this.  He has taken taxpayer money
                       and bailed out Bank of America, so that the Bank will be able to loan us back our money
                       at 3.5%.  In the same convoluted way, Obama plans to allow polluters with deep pockets
                       to keep polluting the air we breathe for a fee.  (This sure seems like a new national
                       patronage system, such as we might have found in a city with a long tradition of
                       political corruption. )   Under Obama's deviously corrupt plan, big polluters can defile our
                       air and water if they buy "Pollution Rights" through agents of the Government
                       like Goldman Sachs.  It would be so much easier to simply say "NO"to dirty air and
                       water, and then put people to work inventing, building and installing Air-Scrubbers or
                       whatever is needed.  Why should Goldman Sachs get any profit from it?  So, Obama
                       is losing confidence.   And that is what is needed.  The honeymoon has ended.   Why
                       should the stock market rally any further.  The biggest gainers are ripe for profit-taking.
                       And a number of DJI stocks like IBM have ended their uptrends.   

                             The real problem, of course, is that American consumers are tapped out.  The bearish
                       chart of VISA, complete with a head and shoulders patter, demonstrates this. The breaking
                       of the neckline would complete the pattern.


                     

                              In the same way that corporate executive have taken for themselves, rather than let
                       workers or even shareholders properly benefit, the lion's share of the productivity gains
                       for last twnty years, Wall Street companies like Goldman Sachs have defrauded and
                       stolen the savings of the American middle Class by pumping and dumping, in turn, internet
                       stocks, mortgages and commodities.  Exageration?  Rread the article in the current issue
                       of The Rolling Stone by Matt Taibbi.  See
                       http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine
                       The result is that wealth is, at least, as unevenly distributed as it was in 1928 and 1929.   And even
                       after a 40% decline, the DJI is still up more than twice what it was in 1929 compared to
                       what its was 25 years earlier.

                                                 

                                                  Weak Internals Are Very Evident in Many DJI Stocks.

                             Too many of the DJI-30 stocks are showing weak internals.  IBM, BA and UTX
                        each look like good short sales, in that they have broken their 50-day ma with confirming
                        internal weakness.   These are high priced DJI-30 stocks and will so exercise that much
                        more influence on the DJI-30.  Also showing very weak internals in  the DJIA are   AXP,
                        CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, HD, JPM, PG and TRV.









                                                    The Buy B5 Will Be Reversed by A Sell S10
                                                            if The DJI Closes Below 8200.
                                                                          
                                       The last Peerless signal is a Buy B5 but a closing by the DJI below its neckline
                        at 8200 will bring either a judged or an automatic Sell S10, depending on the numbers.  I spent
                        a considerable time this weekend going back over past head and shoulders patterns since
                        1915.   The data will be posted tomorrow. The charts have already been put up for your
                        examination.  See Head and shoulders patterns since 1915.

                                      For now, note that the conclusion I reached is that completed head and shoulders
                        patterns, where there is a close clearly below the neckline, produce far too many big declines
                        to ignore, especially when the DJIA's volume steadily subsides during the formation of the pattern,
                         as has happened since May, and when the Accumulation Index and OBV-PCT are negative,
                         as they are now in the formation of the pattern's right shoulder.  Very good breadth
                         will help save some stocks, the NASDAQ  and the QQQQ for a while longer, but the lesson
                        of 1977, in particular, was that the DJI can lead  the rest of the market into a bear market.
                        So, a completed head and shoulder pattern in the DJI with the P-Indicator negative must
                        be heeded.  It is slightly positive now.

                                    It's also true that the Closing Power and NYSE A/D Lines now are still uptrending. 
                      So, there is hope that the decline this Thursday before a 3 day weekend was an aberration
                      and occurred without the full participation of all the market's participants.  That could
                      bring a rebound early in the day.  But will the Closing be weak?  A lot of traders who
                      depend upon seasonality may have bought Wednesday in hopes of a typically good
                      pre-July 4th advance.  If there is no recovery, they will be trapped unless they sell.

                                  Typically, there first is a break in the NYSE A/D Line uptrend before a DJI
                      head and shoulders pattern is completed.  That was true in each of the five head and
                      shoulders patterns, for example, in the scary period 1930.  Then as now, many market players
                      thought the DJI has reached a bottom in that year.  The appearance of head and shoulders
                      patterns was a dire warning in 1930, as the DJI lost 60% of its value after 1930 by the time it
                      bottomed at 42 in July 1932.   So, we can surmise that the downside risks will loom up
                      again in investors' minds and the selling will pick up again if there is a clear break in the
                      neckline of the head and shoulders pattern we see now in the DJI, with a closing below 8200. 

                                Such a break would set up a minimum downside target that is 500 points (the height
                     of the DJI's pattern) below the neckline, or 7750.                       

                                           Five Head and Shoulder Patterns in the DJI in 1930
                                          The A/D Line Uptrend in Each Was First Violated.


                  7/1/2009     Buy B5 ... Resistance Levels Are Being Challenged

                         It's true that what was Accumulation has now turned to Distribution, judging
                 from our Accumulation Index now being clearly negative.  This is typical of a head
                 shoulders pattern.   But the day just before the July 4th weekend rallies more
                 than 70% of the time.  A move above the H&S apexes of the SPY and DIA coupled
                 with breaks in the 12 month down-trendlines of the QQQQ and IWM under the
                 normally bullish influence of trading just before July 4th may cause a short-term
                 jump in prices.  Look also at how often markets take off after prices exceed the
                 resistance of the apex of right shoulders in these patterns.  

                         The resistance of the downtrending A/D Line for speculative low priced stocks
                 has also been reached.  The operative Buy B5 and rising Closing Powers suggest
                 an upside breakout.  Even if it does not occur, the head and shoulders pattern will still
                 not be bearishly completed until the necklines' supports are taken out.

                        Many high accumulation low priced stocks seem indifferent to the resistance
                 levels the averages are approaching.  Look at how strong are BORL, GPX, ATSI,
                 DRCO, TRCR, HWKN, AIXG, BKYF, CRAY, LAD and STEC.   

                        Surely, it is bullish that the market can rally when the biggest state in the Union
                  cannot pay its bills and when so many low priced stocks can double and double again
                  in 4 months without Wall Steet heralding or hawking them to private investors.

                        The NYSE A/D Line now is still uptrending.  Typically, there first is a break in the
                  NYSE A/D Line uptrend before a DJI head and shoulders pattern is completed.
                  That was true in each of the five head and shoulders patterns, for example, in the period 1930.


================================================================================
                         6/30/2009     Buy B5 and pre-July 4th Bullish Seasonality
                                                   versus
                          Bearish DJIA's and SP-500's Head and Shoulders Pattern
                                                                  and
                                     Low volume and Manipulative program

                          The next ten trading days have been up 63% of the time since 1965.   That is statistically
                           significant.   Anything above 56% is worth noting.  Bullish also is the still rising
                           NYSE A/D Line.  Most completed head and shoulder patterns show weaker breadth,
                           where the head in the pattern is not accompanied by a confirming NYSE A/D Line.  In our
                           case the A/D Line is stronger, not weaker, than the DJI.  Until the A/D Line uptrend
                           is violated, we are safe. 

                           The big concern is low volume on rallies in the last 16 trading days and on the right
                           shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern.  This is a classic characteristic of a valid
                           pattern.   This pattern is not recognizable by any computer algorithm I can write.
                           So, we just have to be on the alert.  The negative readings from the Accumulation Index
                           are important confirmations that the pattern is, in fact, developing.  The good news is that
                           a head and shoulders pattern appears in relatively few stocks now.  Normally, we would
                           see more such patterns at a top. Here are more stocks with such patterns.  It will be bearish
                           if they complete their pattern.

                           How much of the rally is a result of artificial program trading with taxpayer provided
                           TARP bailout money by companies like Goldman Sachs?  Computer program trading
                           has certainly gotten more sophisticated and takes in many more stocks than before.
                           How extensively Goldman's trading now is can be gleaned from earlier statistics showing
                           that Goldman was by far the biggest program trader, nearly always trading for its
                           own account and constituted as much as  74% of the entire trading volume on the NASDAQ
                           for one week two months ago.  Significantly, Goldman has leaned on the NYSE to stop
                           revealing this information.  It is too incriminating!   The Zero Hedge Blog writes:
                                       "The NYSE has taken action to make sure that nobody will henceforth be able
                          to keep track of the complete dominance that Goldman Sachs exerts over the New York Stock
                          Exchange. This basically ends our weekly Program Trading updates disclosed every Thursday
                          indicating that Goldman has single-handedly captured all of NYSE's program trading. ..This is a
                          travesty, as well as a complete obliteration and a mockery of the move for transparency
                          that the Administration, Regulators and Exchanges have been posturing they support.
                          We advise all readers to contact the provided staff on the memorandum and voice your incredulity
                          with this brazen move to completely obfuscate Goldman's behind-the-scenes take over the world's
                          biggest stock exchange.    Robert Airo, Senior Vice President, NYSE Euronext at (212) 656-5663 or
                          Aleksandra Radakovic, Vice President, NYSE Regulation at (212) 656-4144

                                         Goldman Sachs has a long history of flagrantly manipulating markets, according
                           the lengthy, well-written and carefully researched article in the current Rolling Stone. He
                           counts four major bubbles that they created to fleece retail traders and investors:
                                         1929 Bubble,   Internet Bubble,   Housing Bubble and Oil Bubble
                           Without any prompting, I reached the same conclusion last year as Paulson allowed his old
                           firm to transform itself in a blink into a commercial bank, so that it could get their hands on a
                           TARP handout.  Paulson, of course, was the ex-CEO of GS.  Shamelssly, as Secty of Treasury,
                           he refused to save Lehman Brothers, the primary competitor of Goldman but then
                           rescued AIG so that they could pay $13 billion to Goldman, all at taxpayers' expense. 
                           I will write a summary of Matt Taibbi's many charges in a day or two, but it would be
                           good to read the original source. 1 year is only $14.97.  By the way, Goldman has hardly replied.

==================================================================================
                             6/29/2009   Buy B5 but Note The Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern

                                  When a head and shoulders pattern appears, it gives us useful trading
                             points to watch: the apex of the right shoulder and the neckline.  In addition, we
                             should watch the volume and the internal strength indicators.  If the pattern is
                             to be acompleted and a new bearish reversal of trend is to occur, certain technical
                             signs usually are present.  Use a checklist like this:

                                1) Is Volume MA waning on the right shoulder?   DJI now - Yes
                                2) Is the Accumulation Index near or below 0 on the right shoulder?  DJI now -.024
                                3) Is the A/D Line falling behind price?  DJI - No. It is above its level on left shoulder
                                4) If the P-Indicator trending down and below zero? DJI - Yes but +101

                                   The current DJI rally could be reversed by a head and shoulders pattern.   That
                               happened in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1938, 1940,  1941, 1974 when the DJI fell more than
                               40%.   See the charts for these years in the study I did this past weekend.
                                                        Head and shoulders patterns since 1915. 

                               A bearish reversal could happen without a Peerless Sell, though that only took place once
                               before, going back to 1928, following a Buy B5.  See the discusson of Buy B5s
                               since 1928.

                               The distribution process takes time. The way a head and shoulders pattern
                               usually works is to allow significant distribution to take place over a few weeks
                               on the right shoulder.  Time and Price symmetry are more common than not.
                               The right shoulder usually is similar to the left shoulder.  The left shoulder in
                               the DJI's current pattern lasted about a month.  The right shoulder here has only
                               been extant 3 days, so far.  On this basis, even if this is a bearish top, the neckline
                               at 8100 may not be violated until early August.  Knowing this, we can play the
                               strongest stocks a little while longer, I would think, even if a big decline lies ahead.  

                               Usually if the market is about to reverse significantly, we see bearish head and
                               shoulders patterns in important stocks, too.  Not many are now evident.  There are four
                               developing head and shoulders patterns in key DJI and QQQQ stocks we should
                               probably watch watch:  BA, UTX, IBM and JNPR.

                               Also of interest is the US Dollar.  The Chinese have become more vocal calling for
                               a new international currency other than the Dollar.  The Dollar is holding up just
                               above the key 80 level. 


                                           Meanwhile, hot money is busy chasing a relatively small number of
                               explosive super stocks, up, up and still higher.  Some of these are very over-extended. 
                               In these cases, their rallies may continue only for one more day because of
                               window-dressing related buying.   We have to be concerned that there is usually a
                               point, where super strength becomes sloppy, careless buying.  Most of the stocks
                               zooming upwards now do show heavy insider buying and professional sponorship. 
                               But how much of this is a new type of program trading?  The broad public is not
                               in the market now.  If they cannot be induced to enter this market, will the program
                               traders be forced to dump their holdings as they did leveraged oil futures last year? 
                               Historically, bull market in secondary and low-priced "cats and dogs" are very
                               rare and last 6-7 months and then they may dry up.  Here I'm thinking of
                               April 1968 - December 1968, the Prudhoe Bay Stocks' Boom and October 1999
                               - April 2000.   Our Stocks' Hotline is still long many of these.  The CLosing Power
                               up- trend is important to watch.  A break after a long run is bearish.  For now, we will
                               also watch the Low-Priced Stocks' A/D Line that TigerSoft's Index program builds. 
                               It is testing its 21-day ma on a rebound.
                            


 
                            6/26/2009     A Peerless Buy B5 is operative Peerless signal.  This signal has
                            always eventually been profitable at the time of the next Peerless sell
                            signal.   This weekend's TigerSoft Elite Stock Professional Report has found
                            a very high number of extraordinary volume Buy B12s.  There is a lot of
                            evidence that Goldman Sachs program trading is making up a very large
                            proportion of all trading volume.  Without fanfare, someone is buying all
                            the most heavily accumulated lower priced stocks with no fanfare.  I am reminded
                            of 1968, except that then it was the small investor who was buying.  Here
                            is an example.  Transcend Medical Transcription Services.


                                     But there is one case when a head and shoulders pattern developed
                            before a Peerless reversing Sell signal.  Since we have a potential head
                            and shoulders pattern emerging with the DJI now, we will want to watch
                            to see how it unfolds.  Selling if the neckline of the head and shoulders
                            pattern was violated would have worked out better than buying and holding
                            until the next Peerless Sell.  Watch also the NYSE A/D Line.  The extensive
                            study of head and shoulders shows the usefulness of simply getting out
                            when the A/D Line uptrend is broken if the head and shoulders pattern
                            plays out.  See 1948-1949 chart below.  For now look at  the extensive
                            research I have just done on all head and shoulders patterns since 1915. 



=================================================================================
          
                           
                     
                    6/25/2009
                               Volume was low.  B5s are bullish.   Look for a rally to the upper
                              band near 9000.  There may be resistance at the apex of the right
                              shoulder in a potential head and shoulders pattern.  That apex
                              high is 8663.  Even if a head and shoulders pattern does develop
                              there is usually temporal symmetry, so that a right shoulder
                              may last as long as 3 weeks, before we get a resolution
                             and either a price breakout above 8680 or a price breakdown
                             below the neckline, the lows just seen.  DJI stocks are not
                             where the upside action is.  Look at the lengthening list of new highs
                             to get ideas.  Most nights you will see some of them above at the
                             Introductory link that that says:

                            11) CURRENT NYSE/NASDAQ New Highs and New Lows.   Interesting Stocks.

                             Some of these are getting quite extended.  Find tech stocks showing lots of
                             accumulation with a CLosing Power making new highs ahead of price. 
                             Some examples are EMC,  MXIM and QCOM.
                    
                   
                 6/24/2009   Buy B5 Is Operative Peerless Signal

                           The hot money is still going into low-priced stocks showing bulging Accumulation and making
                new highs.  The sense that the Fed will guarantee the market against a worse decline gives lots
                of help to speculative stocks.  In many ways, this boom in low priced stocks is the equivalent of
                the Fed induced boost to technology stocks in 1999-2000 and housing stocks from 2002-2004.
               See some more examples of Explosive Super Stocks Today and read the Blog I wrote on June 6th.
               The Great 2009 Bull Market. Why Is Wall Street Concealing The Huge Surges in
               Low Priced Stocks?

                           I think it is very bullish for a few more months that hot money chooses to buy low-priced
                stocks rather than drive prices down by buying  leveraged short ETFs. Say what you will about
                Goldman Sachs manipulating stock prices, even creating the booms and then the busts in a very
                big way. I would much rather have them buying than selling short. Read The Rolling Stone's
                Goldman Sachs: "Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression"  
                Compare it with the points I have been trying to make about Goldman's sinister dominance of |
                US government economic policy making since the early 1994. 

                           Since 1965, the DJI has risen 61.4% of the time in the 10 trading days following
                June 25th. New investment money is most apt to come into the market the last few trading
                days of the month and for a week after the first.  With June's end comes 2nd quarter
                window-dressing.   That boost the strongest stocks.  Low priced stocks and technology are
                not the only ones favored.  Since the market turned up the six biggest gain Fidelity Sector funds
                are:    
                                        Automotive +136%
                                        Paper-Forest +67%
                                        Brokerage   +63%
                                        Financial +57%
                                        Networking Infrastructure +50%
                                        Technology   +48%

                           Half the time in the past the DJI retreats 2% to 8% before making a significant recovery
                following a Buy B5.  Waiting for the Closing Power to break its downtrendline in what you Buy may
                prove a reasonable course of action.  But it also will force traders to buy on strength.   Buying
                the strongest of the general market ETFs would not have put you in the weak DIA.    Unlike the
                DIA, the QQQQ closed above it opening.  That there were almost 3 times more stocks rising today
                than falling stock is certainly a positive sign.

                          The DJI was  much weaker.  Its first hour 100 point jump and later 150 point fade
                is clearly bearish action.  Will its action continue?  Who were the sellers for the last 4 hours? 
                It may well be that the DJI's weakness today owed to news which will not affect the whole
                financial world.  Much of the weakness in the DJI-30 today owed to the 6% drop in Boeing,
                which announced serious delays in its new 787 aircraft.  The second biggest loser in the DJI
                was UTX.  The Motley Fool explains: "A whole string of suppliers -- from Honeywell
                (NYSE: HON) to United Tech (NYSE: UTX) to Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR)  -- depend
                on Boeing getting its act together so that they can bring parts operations up to speed.   Meanwhile,
                customers such as Continental (NYSE: CAL) and AMR (NYSE: AMR), parent company of
                American Airlines, who have ordered large batches of 787s, need the plane desperately in order
                to cut their fuel costs.

                         A market recovery is expected.  But watch to see if the leaders can get past the apex of
              . potential right shoulders in what would become bearish head and shoulders tops if their rally
               fizzles. Here are some examples of ETFs and stocks that could become bearish head and shoulders
               if prices cannot get past the lines shown.




               

                        

=====================================================================================

            6/23/09     New Buy B5 today.

            Today brought a Buy B5 on the DJIA using Peerless.  With all three key
        internal strength indicators (P-, IP21, Opct) above zero and the DJI 3.2% below
        the 21-day ma, A Buy B5 is seen in these conditions as long the market has not
        shown exceptional weakness in the last 4 months.  In the 9 cases of Buy B5s since
        1942, there have no losses. The average gain was 7% at the time of the next major
        Peerless Sell when we look at the period 1942-2008. It is important not to
        use a Buy B5 within 8 weeks of a Sell S9/Sell S12 See Buy B5

              There are two more cases in the period 1928-1942.  These can be considered a test
         of the Buy B5 principle, as they were in the period used to develop the Peerless
         system.   *=Not an automatic signal using previous S9/S12 rule.
                   12/11/28 Gain= 6.9% Cl/ma=.958
                    2/15/29   Gain = 5.7%  Cl/ma=.967
                   *4/29/30  Gain = -1.2% Cl/ma=.966 Paper Loss = 278-255)/278
                                    This was after S9/S12 and completed head and shoulders pattern.

                    In 6 of the 11 earlier Buy B15s the DJI rallied without falling more than 1%.
          In one case the DJI rallied only to start falling back, so that the paper loss
          was 8% before a very good rally 6 months later.  And in 4 cases the DJI fell
          between 2% and 5% before rallying strongly.  A decline below 7900 would
          seem to be very unlikely before the next Peerless Sell.

          Traders may want to see more evidence that a bottom has been put in place.
       After all, the downside volatility was terrible 12 months ago.  Summer may remind
       traders of last year!  Watching for the CLosing Power downtrends to end will help
       if you choose to take this independent approach.   But you should know that
       the Peerless signals are worth taking, year in and year out.  Here are the results
       after 9/15/2008
       
         ETF     Winning             Gains on Initial $10,000 Reinvested              Biggest
                         and                  with each reversing Peerless Buy                  Paper Loss
                      Losing                and positions closed out on next Sell.
                      Trades               $40. commission and slippage allowed
                                                for with each trade.  Trades taken
                                                at opening day following signal                
         =====    =====              ==============================      =========
         DIA         4 vs 2                +22.6%                                                           -16%
         SPY         5 vs 1                +32.0%                                                          -16.2%
         QQQQ   4 vs 2                +37.2%                                                          -11.4%
         IWM      5 vs 1                +61.9%                                                          -16.5%   

              
                                              GOLD STOCKS' MADE BIG MOVES UP TODAY

                          Our report on health insurance stocks must be delayed until this weekend.   Several
                           Gold stocks look attractive for purchase.  Normally, we don't put stock picks here.
                           They belong on the Tiger Elite Stock Professional Service.  But this shows what
                           we look for when Peerless gives a reversing Buy signal.  Of interest here is that
                           the Fidelity Gold Fund (FSAGX) was the biggest gainer today among 42 its 42 Select
                           Industry fund.  Readers will be intrigued by the fact that Gold Stocks were among the
                           best performers using Peerless Buys and Sells.  All markets seem integrated
                           as never before to the DJIA.  (The Biggest gainer today among foreign ETFs
                           was CEE - Central Europe.)








==================================================================================
             6/22/2009   Sell S8 Is Still Operative.
                       The DJIA has reached its lower 3.0% band.  The internal strength indicators are close to giving
             a Buy B9 for this time of the year, from April to June  But they did not. The key thresholds for cases
             where the la/ma=.97 are:
                              1) a P-Indicator at 107 or higher;
                              (2) the current Accum. Index (IP21) above .005 and
                              (3) the V-Indicator above -70.  None of these condition are true.  All need to be.  

              The DJI has also retreated to the support of its rising 50-day ma.  Starting bull markets usually
           do not drop below this ma, but do sometimes.  Should a penetration of the 50-day ma be taken
           as a reinforcing sell?   Looking back to 1915, I count 16 cases where a simple penetration of a 50-day
           ma after the first rally from a bear market led to a significant decline of at least 5% more on the
           DJI.  But in 25 cases, using a 50-day ma to buy and sell would have led to a whip-saw.  Better would
           have been to use a two day penetration of a 65-day ma.  That would have reduced the number of
           whipsaws to 17.     Where there has been shown to be extreme downside volatility. it is better to be
           occasionally whip-sawed than stuck in a serious or growing loss for 6 months.  Use a two day violation
           of the 65-day ma to avoid 1/3 of the whip-saws. 
          
             In our present case, we note that the 65-day ma crosses at 8250, about where the support of the lows
             of May 15 and May 22nd  are also.  In addition, we would require that the Accumulation Index to be
             negative and the Closing Power be below its falling 21-day ma..  
                                     
                   Penetrations of  the 50-day ma after a recovery rally from
                    what seems a bear market: 1915-2003

                                     Whipsaw Cases using 50-day ma =  25  
                                     Whipsaw Cases using 2-day penetration of 65-day ma =  17   
                                      Declines continued after violation of 50-day ma = 16
                                   50-day ma
                    May 1918  .   78             Whipsaw...fell to a 75.60 low two weeks after violating the ma and then rallied. t
                    Feb   1921      75              Whipsaw..fell to 73 after breaking 50-dma and rallied to 80 and then fell to 64.
                    May 1921      77              fell to 65 in August 1921 and rallied
                    Oct 1924      103             Whipsaw.. fell to 99 and then began bull market
                    Sept 1930     234            fell to 157 and began bear market rally.
                   March 1931   173           fell from 172 to 121 and began bear market rally.
                   July-August 1931  140    whip-sawed between 133 and 143.
                   August 1931   140          fell to 87 and began brief bear market rally.
                   Nov 1931       108          fell to  70 and began brief bear market rally.
                   March 1932    78           fell to 41 and then rallied strongly to 80.
                   October 1932  67          fell to 57 and then began brief bear market rally.
                   February 1933  58         fell to 50 and then began bull market
                   March 1933     58          Whipsaw.. decline to 56 and two weeks later started bull market by surpassing 50-dma.
                   January 1938   122        Whipsaw....fell to 119 and then briefly rallied above 50-dma.
                   March 1938    125         fell to 100 and then began new bull market. 
                   August 1940    122        1-day whipsaw.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this. 
                   August 1941    125        1-day whipsaw.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this.
                   Sept 1941        126       1-day whipsaw.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this.
                   Sept 1941        126       fell to 93 in April 1942
                   March 1947      177      fell to 164 two months later.
                   Sept. 1949        178      1-day whipsaw.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this
                   Nov   1950        235        Whipsaws for next next two month.
                   Nov   1958        541      1-day whipsaw.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this
                   June 1961         686        whipsawed - declined only to 680 and rallied to new high and 725
                   Sept 1961         703        whipsawed - declined only to 691 and rallied to new high and 735
                   April 1967         842      1-day whipsaw.  Rallied to 910
                   Oct   1970         754        1-day whipsaw.   Rallied to 840.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this
                    Aug 1973         892      fell to 850 and rallied
                    Sept 1973        891       whipsawed
                    Nov, 1973        919    fell to 790 in a month.
                   1973-1974 bear market  No violations of 50-day ma for 7 months.  Almost.  65-dma = better.
                   June 1978          825     whipsawed.  fell only to 807 and rallied to 900.
                   1980 mini-bear. No violations for 5 months.  whipsawed and rallied from 925 to 975.
                   1981-1982 bear market. 1000 whipsawed 1-day violation. rallied to 1075.
                   Jan 1991          2509   whipsawed fell only to 2480. and rallied strongly,
                   Aug 2001         8342   whipsawed  fell to 7290 in six weeks.
                   Jan 2002          9712   whipsawed fell only to 9630 and then rallied to 10600
                   April 2002      10136 whipsawed to 9820 and then 10300.
                   May 2002       10106  fell to 7702 in 3 months.
                   Sept 2002         8671  fell to 7286 in 2 months
                   Dec. 2002         8365  whipsawed to 9820 and then 8304 and then rallied to 8800
                   Jan    2003         9129  fell to 7552 in two months.
                   Aug 2003          9061  1-day whipsaw.  Rallied.  Using 65-dma would have avoided this (Also Sept and Nov)
          
                                 The Dollar is hovering just above the key 70-level.  Gold and Silver's Closing Power
                            are stuck in narrowing triangles.  Interest rates look weak and Crude Oil has violated its
                            rising Closing Power.  Low-Priced Stocks broke their uptrend and their uptrending A/D Line.
                           Distribution is very apparent.  Watch to see if they can rally and avoid dropping to a 2 month low,  
                           Bank stocks were  weak.  The Treasury Secretary says he will not let a monster zombie bank fail.
                           That could, according to Roubini, cost the US taxpayer a trillion dollars.  And exactly what,
                           do we get for it?    BAC is sitting on its rising 14 week uptrend.   Distribution and insider selling
                           continue.   22 of the 125 bank stocks we follow fell more than 9%, 

                                Obama's decline in popularity is a direct threat to the big banks that are dependent
                           on their US Fed and Treasury benefactors. Rumor has it that Obama will not be able to get
                           a 75% popular public health insurance option through the plutocratic US Senate.  He has
                           raised expectations very high here.  If he dashes these hopes, his popularity will drop much
                           further. We will look at health insurance stocks tomorrow night. 

                                        

===================================================================================

   6/19/2009            PEERLESS Sell S8 on DJI.  But Low-Priced "Cats and Dogs"
                               are running.   Watch the NYSE A/D Line.  It is Neutral, in that
                              it is sitting on its 21-day ma.  Monday's Have Been Reliably
                               Bearish for The Last Year.                  

                         A Tale of Two Very Different Markets.

                            Many low priced stocks are still quite strong.  As a whole, they have not had much play
                            since the start of the 2003-2007 bull market.  As a result, now they are considered by
                            Wall Street pros to be oversold and cheap, as these stocks'  2009 bull market still has
                            not been announced to the public by the talking heads of CNBC AND their Closing Powers
                            are in pronounced uptrends, for the most part, showing professional buying. All this
                            suggests more upside potential, even as the DJI retreats back to its support at
                            8300 and, below that, 8000.  Low interest rates and traditional favoritism by Democrats
                            of smaller tech stocks rather than mthe mega- Blue Chips also lies behind their up-trend. 
                              See again:    June 6, 2009            The Great 2009 Bull Market.
                              Why Is Wall Street Concealing The Huge Surges in Low Priced Stocks?

                            The initial 2009 Low Priced stocks' A/D Line has been violated.  But greed,
                            being what it is, I would expect another up-wave.  How often do folks get a chance
                            to make 200%-400% in 6 weeks?  This group has started to rebound from its
                            rising 50-day ma. two days ago. I will be looking to buy more low priced stocks this week
                            on the Stocks' Hotline.

                             WHEN NASDAQ OUT-PERFORMS DJI FOR MORE THAN 6 Mo.
                           The NASDAQ is clearly out-performing the DJI by a wide margin,  Since January 15th,
                           the QQQQ's percent change minus the DJI's percent change over 50 days has been
                           has been positive.  The difference is now 6% over the last 50 trading days.  The PEERLESS
                           NASDAQ chart features a unique relative strength indicator, the NASDJI.  Study of all
                           4 earlier and comparable cases shows 8 months is the longest a secondary stocks rally
                           lasted; that the NASDJI always stops being positive after 7 months; Peerless called 3 of the
                           4 tops very well; and we should be watching for a double top or a break in the second
                           NYSE A/D Line uptrend.   See this study and earlier NASDAQ charts.

                           
        6/18/09    Sell S8. 

                The Sell S8 is new.  It was introduced last week.  It is based on very low day-to-day volatility
                 for 6 consecutive days.   See details below.   The documentation appeared here in the last
                 week.   I believe it should be used as a major and reversing sell signal. especially as the NYSE
                 A/D Line uptrend has confirmed the S8.  In 7 of 10 cases, the Sell S8 led to a decline of at least
                 8% going back to 1928 when the DJI was not near an all-time high.  The parallels to August 1932
                and July 1975 seem close.  Practically, this has meant on our Stocks' Hotline, we have reduce
                by 1/2 the long positions and hedged with some short sales.  The rising 21-day ma very often
                does act as support.  And the QQQQ's internals are all considered "Bullish" as it tests that
                suppport.   The bounce we are seeing over-night will help our high accumulation longs more
                than the short positions will hurt us if there is a 1% rally in the DJI on Friday.   Monday,
                has the habit of declining.  Since Juine 2nd, 2008, the DIA (ETF for the DJIA) rose 55.7%
                of the time on Thursday and 53.8% on Friday but only 23.9% on  Monday and 47.2% on Tuesday.
                Mondays are up 34% of the time for the QQQQ.

                         Yesterday the DJI broke its 21-day ma and its previously four-times tested uptrend.  Only
                 the P-Indicator, among our key internal strength readings for it,  is still positive.  Volume
                 bearishly picked up on the small decline yesterday and fell on today's stunted rally.  The late
                sell-off today makes the bounce seem unconvincing, though breadth was positive. 
               
                        Today's rally in financials and the DJI owed to Wall Street's happiness that under
                 the Obama-Geithner Plan there will be no independent investigation of the regulatory
                 failures and banking excesses that led to the world-wide financial collapse of 2007-2009.   That
                 will all be quickly swept under the rug.  Wall Street is very pleased that it will be the Federal
                 Reserve which will police banks that are "too big to fail."  There will be no enforcement
                 of anti-trust laws against monster banks.   There will no new requirements that bankers'
                 executive compensation be limited or risk-adjusted.  De facto hedge funds like Goldman Sachs
                 will continued to get all the privileges and benefits of a real bank.  So, Goldman (+3.3),
                 Bank of America (+4.9%) and JPMorgan (+4.4%) and other non-DJIA banks are celebrating.
                 In the end, the big bankers know that the Fed is not an independent bureaucracy.   Rather,
                 apart from the Chairman who is appointed by the President, the Fed is essentially run and
                 staffed by and for bankers.  The FED did not have the courage to step on toes and regulate
                 the bankers when Geithner was the head of the NY Fed, exactly when conditions most cried out
                 for such independence and courage.  Not surprisingly, Wall Street reasons that the banks
                 will find lots of ways to keep a more powerful Fed from rocking their boat.  Political scientists
                 have often pointed out that a regulatory agency is soon captured by those it is supposed
                 to regulate.  Capturing will not be necessary under the Obama-Geithner plan.   Private
                 banks will run the show immediately.
   
                        But the big banks are not out of the woods, yet.  They may still run short of funds if
                 the economy and housing prices continue to fall.  It will be much harder politically for them to get
                 more TARP money,  though Geithner says he is the giver that has the power to keep on giving. 
                 Showing his loyalty to banks is undiminished, he insists he needs to no new Congressional
                 authority.   So, Obama is now perceived by them as the banks' protector.  And 57% of Americans
                 still approve of his actions as President.  As he strives straddles to straddle an increasingly
                 polarized electorate, his approval ratings will weaken and Congress will become more resistant
                 to his pro-bank policies.

                      The central problem, of course, is that many, probably most, American consumers are 
                 nearly tapped out.  The charts of Master Card and Visa may reflect this by their confirmed breaks
                 below their 50-day ma.  Housing stocks are turning weak again in the same way.   See HD LEN.

                                                                     DJIA's SELL S8

            6/17/2009   The DJIA remains on a Sell S8.  The lower band would seem to be the
                  next target, although a recovery back above the 21-day ma is possible.  The most likely
                  scenario would be for the DJI to test 7900-8000.  There may emerge two markets from
                  here.   Bank stocks and home-building stocks lead the market down while tech stocks and
                  the NASDAQ-100 (QQQQ) are much stronger than the DJIA/  They are trying to bring
                  about a rally from the rising 21-day ma.  The QQQQ chart above shows this.   Unfortunately,
                  three groups that had been leading the rally seem to be stalling out.  The uptrends in the
                  A/D Lines for (1) All Foreign ETFS, (2) Chinese Stocks and (3) Low-Priced Stocks have
                  each been bearishly broken.  The global market is now so integrated that weakness in
                  the US is instantly communicated elsewhere. This was the conclusion I reached when studying
                  how well Peerless Buys and Sells worked not just in the US, but everywhere on the planet.

                  There are many High Tech ETFs.   Like the QQQQ, they all seem to have a CLosing Power
                  which has fallen to a point where further weakness would break CP uptrends of four or more
                  months.   Further below are the charts of three.

                  Watch IWM - just below.  It  shows a potentially very bearish "Hands above the
                  Head" pattern.  A decline by it below 100 would break the patterns neckline.  This is a pattern
                  I have only seen in very bearish markets.  Another warning, our index of 300+ low priced
                  stocks shows a bearish break in its A/D Line uptrend.  Given the volatility of these stocks,
                  this should cause to become guarded in this area.  I warned that the break in the NYSE A/D Line
                  would have this effect on secondary stocks.

                                     MID-CAPS' Hands Above The Head Pattern.



                                                         Merrill Lynch Internet HOLDR

                 

                                     iShares Goldman Sachs Technology Index Fund

                 
                         Bank and housing stocks are weakening significantly.  The A/D (Advances-Declines) Line
                         of these groups are in downtrends.  Watch to see if financial stocks show an ability to
                         rebound from its rising 50-day ma. 
                 
                                            Tiger Index of Financial Stocks
 

                                                  Tiger Index of Home-Building Stocks


===================================================================================


                6/16/2009

                The Sell S8 still operates.  The odds favor a test by the DJI of its lower 3.5% band near 8300.
                A further decline to 7900 of 10% from its highs is more likely looking back at the closest
                historical parallels.  Details of new financial regulations will have to be sifted through by
                Wall Street, even though Obama's Wall Street friendly minions have set out the details.
                Congressional reaction will probably produce some populist posturing that may unsettle
                financial stocks.  New weakness is apparent there now.  See AXP, BAC, JPM, TRV.
                Most unsettling, because of what it says about consumer spending, are the confirmed breaks by
                VISA and MASTER CARD of their 50-day ma.  The banks have received most of the
                government's bailouts.  They are making less loans than in the last reported month. 

                                             VISA HAS BEEN CONTROLLED BY PROFESSIONALS
                                            USING A 14-Day STOCHASTIC.  WITH A NEW BUY
                                                  WILL IT CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED?


                                            MASTER CARD - AT KEY SUPPORT



                                                            A Re-Test of the Lows?

                The liberal economist JM Keynes would be very disappointed in the meager size of Obama's
                $85 billion public works program in the US and his decision to waste a trillion on banks and throw
                more than $150 billion more down civil warring rat-holes half way around the world.  A test
                of the DJI-6500 may yet develop if I'm right that Obama's stimulus package does not begin to
                correct the vast need for decent-paying American jobs and, worse, that the rally is artificial,
                having been fueled by TARP payments turned into program trading by banks like Goldman Sachs,
                which is really a government subsidized hedge fund, and not a bank, anyway.  When the banks
                discover that there is now no one to sell their stock to, prices may start to fall sharply.   The
                memory of the bear market is apt to prompt traders not to hold their shares very tightly if
                technical supports like the 50-day ma give way.   

                The FED is afraid of Gold surpassing $1000/oz.  That would signify a very weak dollar
                that is probably about to get a lot weaker very quickly.  Expect the central bank to try
                to make it fall back by talking about how inflation is not a problem.  But pay more attention
                to Gold and the Dollar than their words.  Every central banker and politician knows that
                they must say they favor a "strong dollar".     From the Fed's viewpoint, and Bernanke
                in particular, the moment of truth is getting closer where they must choose much higher
                unemployment and a deepening recession or a much weaker Dollar and significantly higher
                fuel prices because of the weak Dollar. 
                                                                    5-Year Chart of Gold  
         

                The DJIA has slightly penetrated its 21-day ma.  A rebound from here cannot be ruled out.
                But the Sell S8 is much more likely to bring a further decline when the DJI is not near an
                all-time high and is instead rebounding off a bear market low.   Note the break in the NYSE
                A/D line and the poor breadth today.  In addition, the DIA's Closing Power is falling, as is SPY's.  
                (See these two charts just below).  The QQQQ has broken its steep Closing Power uptrend.  
                It is testing its less steep uptrend.  It seems bound to test its rising 50-day ma.  

                There are a growing number of stocks that look bearish.   Their breaking the 50-day ma with
                a negative Accumulation Index and falling Closing Power are reliable signs of a decline.
                Only about 15% of stocks,  I reckon now, show this.  Here are some cases to study, if you
                want to see what TigerSoft considers bearish.

                                             Vulnerable Looking Stocks

                BAC - heavy distribution and falling Closing Power.
               BDK - Completed continuation head and shoulders pattern.
                C - Bleak internals.  Only Obama bailouts will save it.   Political opposition is growing to this.
                Watch COF- Capital One - to see if it can stay above its blue 50-da ma with such weak internals.
                Home Builder CTX has a bearish confirmed 50-day ma penetration.

                DD in DJIA shows a bearish head and shoulders pattern with distribution on right shoulder.
                John Deere shows a reliably bearish hands above the head pattern.
                Watch FCX to see if metals prices are going to drop as world demand slows up.
                Federal Express - confirmed breakdown below 50-day ma.
                Why is Public buying GE at opening so aggressively and professionals selling even more so?

                JP Morgan -confirmed breakdown.
                Home-builder KBH shows a bearish head and shoulders pattern and confirmed breakdown.
                Home-builder LEN shows a bearish confirmed breakdown.
                Conglomerate TXT shows a bearish confirmed breakdown.
                United Parcel Service is being hit by a double whammy: falling consumer demand and rising oil prices.
               
                In this environment, we should wait for a new Peerless Buy signal.   Seasonality remains
                bearish.   Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 34.1% of the time over the week following June 16th
                and 40.9% of the time over the next two weeks.


          

        6/15/2009   

           

                           Further analysis shows that the Sell S8 may cancel the bullishness of the previous B18.
                When there was also a Sell S8, a decline to at least the the lower.band always occurred, despite
                the B18.   Look at the only cases, 3 instances,  where there was a  B18 AND a Sell S8.  Interestingly,
                in two cases the DJI declined 10% and in one cases the DJI fell to the lower band twice before
               starting much of a rally.  A 10% decline here would take the DJI to 7900.

                                            =============== 1946 =====================



                                            ================ 1950 ========================


                                      ================ 1975 ========================

                

    

                So, Watch the NYSE A/D values this week.   The NYSE A/D line is now sitting on its well-tested
        uptrendline.   Poor breadth early next week would break that uptrend-line.  The effect of such an A/D Line
        uptrend-break is usually significantly bearish for a few weeks for most stocks.   In 1932, 1933, 1939
        and 1975, trend-breaks in it followed very soon after this new Sell S8.  As I write, this the futures are
        down nearly 100.  This is not a good start for the new week.  But more important, is what happens after
        the opening in New York.  A good market recovery will be constructive.  But additional weakness all
        day long after such a weak opening will probably mark the beginning of a decline back the lower 3.5%
        band on the DJI, near 8300.  If the P-Indicator stays positive, a very strong recovery will be expected. 
        Last week we reduced our long holding almost by 1/2 on the Stocks' Hotline and will delay doing new
        buying tomorrow.  Gold's head and shoulders top forces us to sell some gold and silver plays.

                The market will not stay this dull much longer.  The steep Closing Power uptrend lines for the DJI
        and SP-500 have been broken.  Now the more important, somewhat more gradual and well-tested
        uptrend lines are being challenged.    If the test of this support line is successful, 9000 is likely.  If it
        is broken, 8300 will be good support.  DJI-9000 was the key barrier that had to be breached at the start of
        the 2003-2007 bull market.  That was the basis for my thinking this move would challenge that level.          

                While more and more of the rally's leaders,  like GS and AMZN, have reached points of expected
        resistance, this has been a very broad advance.   That means the market is not so reliant upon any one
        sector to hold it up.  The Fidelity Sector fund strength/weakness study shows all but one of the 42
        Fidelity Sector funds is rising for the last 21 trading days (a month). CURRENT Sector Strength/Weakness
        Analysis.  That the QQQQ's Relative Strength Quotient (RSQ) is still rated as "Bullish" - because
        the QQQQ/DJI Line is still above its rising 21-day ma - shows the market is very strong.  The
        QQQQ's RSQ now compares favorably to the start of the 2003 bull market.

             Volume and volatility are now very low.  Low volume rallies suggest short covering and/or
       market manipulation.  It generally takes higher volume and new buying power to keep stock prices
       from falling as some investors simply must sell shares to raise money.  The exception to this is
       when dull markets won't give short sellers a chance to cover their bets on the downside, and prices
       edge higher and higher and finally take-off.    This explains why lulls in volume and volatility usually
       are bullish when the market is at an all-time high, and each new high breakout forces some shorts to cover. 
       That is not true now, of course.  The historical statistics are distinctly bearish for such volume
       and volatility lulls when the DJI was not at an all-time high.  Taking some profits where there are
       bearish divergences seems reasonable and waiting to see which way the market springs seems
       best for those trading the market ETFs.    

       Why the lull? What is the market waiting for?  Earnings reports?  Better economic news?   The
        SEC's new rules on short selling?  Obama's new plans to regulate banks and credit.  The Fed's real
        intentions regarding the weak Dollar?   Something that will bring the public into the market, so that
        professional  trading desks have someone to sell to? 

           The seasonality is bearish in years after a Presidential Election until the end of June.  And for
       all years since 1965, the odds of the DJI rallying were only 38.6%.  The DJI fell on average
       -.8% two weeks after June 14th.  See the new CURRENT Seasonality page for Hotline subscribers.

         
                       NEW SELL SIGNAL - Sell "S8" (That is its tentative name for now.)

                    It is based on unusually low volatility after a 3-month rally of more than 10%
              by the DJIA, provided that index is not in all-time high territory where the path of least
              resistance is up.  The rate of daily change in closing prices must have stayed under
              its 10-day ma for 6 straight days.  This signal seems to work particularly well after
              there has been a substantial jump up from a bear market low.

                 There have been 11 such earlier cases when the DJI was not in all-time high territory.
              In 8 cases the DJI fell more than 8%.  There were only 2 cases where the paper loss
              was this big.

                  Here are the cases since 1928 when the DJI was not in all-time high territory.

     DATE     What DJI did subsequently
                     Key values: last/21-dma,  OBVPct.,  IP21 (Current AI), annualized rate of change of 21-dma

    (1)    8/30/1932 DJI moved up for a week from 74.30 to 80 and then fell to 58 in 2 months
                    Key values: la/ma = 1.098  OBVPct= .246    ip21=.01            roc=3.46
                     This was on a  recovery from a bear market low.
                    8% paper loss before a profit. 
                     More than 20% decline.

    (2)     9/29/1932 DJI fell from 71.50 to 59 in 2 weeks.
                    Key values: la/ma =.988     OBVPct=-.107    ip21=-.069        roc=.46
                  This was just after a recovery from a bear market low.
                   More than 15% decline.

    (3)      10/31/1932  DJI fell from 61.90 to 58 in a week, rallied to 67 and then fell steadily to 50
                                      4 months later..
                      Key values: la/ma =. .97  OBVPct=  -.087    ip21=-.139    roc=1.779
                  This was just after a recovery from a bear market low.
                  8% paper loss before a big profit.
                  More than an 18% decline.

    (4)     7/14/1933 DJI rose from 105 to 109 in 3 days and then fell to 89 a week later.
                     Key values: la/ma = 1.059  OBVPct= .17    ip21=-.103        roc=1.316
                  This was on a  recovery from a bear market low.
                  4% paper loss before a profit.
                  More than 15% decline.

   (5)     9/17/1935  DJI fell from 133.10 to 128 in a week and two mo later hit 148.
                    Key values: la/ma =  1.027 OBVPct= .316    ip21=.04                roc=506
                    Only 3% profit before rally.

   (6)      3/25/1936 DJI rose from 157.90 to 162 in a week and fell, a month later hit to 143
                   Key values: la/ma =  1.017 OBVPct= .221     ip21=.016           roc=.546|
                    3% paper loss before a profit.
                    More than 8% decline.

   (7)       7/31/1939 DJI fell from 143.30 to 131 in  3 weeks and then rallied to 156 2 weeks later.
                  Key values: la/ma = 1.03   OBVPct=  .328    ip21 =.099             roc=1.03
                            This was on a recovery from a bear market low.
                   More than 8% decline.

   (8)      9/27/1939  DJI from 150 went sidewise for 7 months and then fell to 114.    
                    Key values:     la/ma = 1.028  OBVPct= .27   ip21=.068         roc=1.479
                   More than 22% decline.

    (9)     2/25/1946  DJI fell from 206.60 to 186 in 2 weeks and 5 weeks after that. rose to 208
                   Key values:     la/ma = 1.024 OBVPct= .43    ip21=.268         roc=.877
                   More than 9% decline.

   (10)    10/25/1950 DJI fell from 231.50 to LB at 221 in 8 trading days and two weeks later hit 236.
                  Key values:    la/ma =  1.011 OBVPct=  .286  ip21=.049         roc=.281
                   More than 5% decline.

    (11)    7/1/1975 DJI fell from 877.42 to 784, 10 weeks later.
                  Key values:     la/ma = 1.036  OBVPct=  .01   ip21=.04           roc=.434
                  This marked the recovery high after the 73-74 bear market for 6 months.
                  More than  9% decline.

   (12)    6/9/2009
                 Key values:    la/ma=1.03      OBVpct= .059     ip21=.047       roc=.264