TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline
                           
                                     HOTLINES - 1/14/2010 - 2/12/2010

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                                                           (C) 2009, 2010  William Schmidt, Ph.D.

5-Day DJIA - 2/12/2010
              

                               SPY and - PROFESSIONAL BUYING POWER
    
   -----------------------------------------------------------  NASDAQ -----------------------------------------------------------
       NASDAQ shows consistently positive Accumulation   A rally past right shoulder and 65-dma
       would be very constructive,  But first, it needs to reach the 2200 resistance there.


========================================================================================
       

      --------- SUPERIMPOSED PEERLESS SIGNALS ON DJIA ---------
                                                  2/12/2010    10099   la/ma= .986
                  21dma-roc =  -.674  P=  -232  Pch= -58    IP21= -.008  V= -237 OPct =  -.173
    
         
                    ========================== DIA ==========================


               NEW INDICATOR - TIGERSOFT PROFESSIONAL BUYING/SELLING POWER
                      
                              QQQQ, Opening and Closing Power  


                             NASDAQ Shows CCI Buy

=========================================================
   
     2/11/2010      Buy B17    ETFs' Closing Power downtrendlines have been broken.
      The 65-dma is judged to be the next target, based on what often happens after there
      has been a break in a long A/D Line uptrend following a severe bear market. The goal
      for this rally is 10,400 for DJI or about 2.6% above today's close;  111.30 for the SPY or
      about 2.40 higher than today's close; 44.75 for the QQQQ or about 1.08 higher.  It is bullish that
      there are now more Home-Building stocks above than below their 65-day ma.  Watch
      leader HD, now at 28.99, to see if it can score a new high breakout above 29.4. The Tiger
      Indexes for Oil and Gold stocks are still in uptrends and above their 65-dma.  NOG and PVX
      are two of the most "bullish" oil/gas stocks, as ranked by the Tiger Power Ranker.  QPSA and
      ISSI are two of the most Accumulated stocks among all stocks up the very most this year.
      
     We often recommend traders work with the highest AI/200 stock in the DJIA on the long side/
     HPQ is that stock.   However, it is below the resistance of its 65-dma and the computer
     rates as "bearish" its price trend, CLosing Powerm Relative Strength and Accum. Index.

      If the DJI can get back above its 65-dma, the next barrier will be the point of breakdown, that
      is the level at which the long DJI uptrend was violated.   That is about 10545.  Interestingly,
      a rally to this level would also reach the resistance of the 3.5% upper band.  Usually base-building
      lasting at least two months is needed after breaks in long uptrendlines.  .
     
========================================================
     2/10/2010  New Buy B17  Not much new commentary, except it was interesting to
        see Obama back-peddle about Wall Street CEO salaries.  Today, he defended them, after last
        week criticizing them quite harshly.   Perhaps, he wants to shore up the market as he
        did back in March last year when he assured Americans on the Jay Leno Show that
        Wall Street had broken no laws in causing the financial collapse.    Watch to see if
        a strong close breaks the downtrends of the ETF's Closing Power for confirming BUYs.                 

  ====================================================================================
              2/9/2010  New Buy B17   But lengthy A/D Line trend-breaks like we saw recently (S6)
        are more safely not reversed for a 3-3 weeks after the signal.  So the Buy B17 is likely to
        bring a rally only to the flat 65-day ma overhead for the DJI, QQQQ, SPY and many stocks. 
        The good news is that there has been no automatic Peerless Sell, as there was in the
        nine earlier cases of Sell S6s and there has not been a string of 4 straight down days as was
        true in each case of an earlier Sell S6/   The CLosing Power and A/D Lines are all still
        declining.  We would stay cautious and hedge.  A failed rally to the 65-dma would
        actually be bearish. as it would set up a bearish head and shoulders in the DJI and
        NASDAQ and demoralize bulls. 

        The Dollar declined today.  For two years, at least, it has had an inverse relationship to the market.
        That the ETFs for Gold, Silver and Oil do not show rising CLosing Powers is a warning, I think,
        that the reversal today in the Dollar may not produce a bigger decline in it.  If the Dollar does
         not weaken, the US stock market will probably not be able to get past the resistance of the
         65-dma.



=======================================================================
        2/8/2010  The Judged Sell S6 A/D Line Uptrend-Break
        Is Still in Effect.      
              The ETFs' Closing Power Lines are still in effect.   More SP-500 and NASDAQ-100
               stocks are below their 65-day ma. The SP-500, NASDAQ and DJI are now at 
               their rising 30-week (149-day) ma.  This should act as some support.  The NYSE
               is back to the support of its October lows.  Its Accumulation Index and the NASDAQ's
               have been (properly) since March.  Ordinarily, a rally attempt would be expected. 
               However, breaks in A/D Lines after big advances from a severe bear market
               (Judged Sell S6s) all bring deeper declines.  That would suggest that any rally
               next will be short-lived and not get past the DJI's 65-day ma.  Let's watch to
               seel if all the Accumulation that the NASDAQ chart shows can bring some kind
               of   a rally,

               NASDAQ at Support with A Consistently Positive Accumulaton Index (AI/200=189)
 
        ===================================================================================    
        2/7/2010  JUDGED SELL S6 IN EFFECT - 18% AVG DECLINE FROM WHERE
              A/D LINE BREAKDOWN OCCURRED.
             SUMMARY:  The DJI has fallen to the lower band and the rising 30-week ma.
             The break in the NYSE A/D Line uptrend should, I think, be treated as a Sell S6.
             Above is the study just done of all the cases like the present where there is such an A/D
             break in a big rally up from a severe bear market bottom.  Typically, there is much
             more weakness.   There was an average 18.8% decline in the DJI from the point
             where the A/D Line uptrend was violated to the low in the DJI in the next four months.
             Such breaks often have a rally to a flat 65-dma.  That seems likely next.

             One of the qualities that each of the 9 earlier A/D uptrend-break cases exhibited
             was 4 straight down-days for the DJI.  That has not occurred here. Another common
             occurrence was a failure by the DJI to get past a flattened 65-day ma.  Such
             a failure took place on Wednesday.  Another commonly seen characteristic
             of these earlier Sell S6s, which is also seen here, was the four of more (red) down
             days showing volume above the previous day's  within a month of the trend-break.
             A continuingly weak A/D Line is another trait in these S6s A/D Line breakdowns.
.
             We may see a rally back up to 10400 to test the resistance of the 65-day ma
              there.   However, the ETFs' Closing Powers are in downtrends.   The CLosing
              Power Trend is our best way to determine what professionals and Wall Street
              insiders are doing.  Seeing the trends is easy and produces consistently positive
              results.

              A new tool is shown below in the A/D Line charts for groups of stocks.  This is the
              running percentage of stocks above their 65-day ma.  Only 8.8% of the DJI
              stocks are above their 65-day ma.  Only defensive KFT and TRV in the DJI
              show a rising CLosing Power above a 21-day ma.  74.5% of SP-500 stocks
              are below their 65-dma.  71% of the NASDAQ-100 stocks are below this barrier.
              Certainly, prices can rise back above the 65-day ma, but I would say the proof
              should be left to them now to do it.

              Be guarded now.  Years that end in "0" have since 1890 all have had
              significant decline.  The 20% drop in 1950 was the least of them all.
              Our Stocks' Hotline is short a number of weaker stocks and holds long a
              handful of stocks still showing especially high Accumulation.  Giving the
              DJI several weeks to play out the bearishness of  the A/D Line trend-break
              is supported by the Sell S6 study.  .
                            http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/2-5-2010/index.html   Wednesday
                                                  
 

                           SPY and Closing Power - Downtrendline Broken for a Buy

                                             


                                  QQQQ and CLosing Power  - Downtrend Line Break - Buy!
                                      
         


          
            TIGER INDEX OF FINANCE STOCKS - At support.




                                           TIGER INDEX OF HOME BUILDING STOCKS    
                                          Rally here must get past falling 65-dma's resistance

                                    
   
                                                     26 YEAR DJIA CHART



==========================================================================================
                                                            OLDER HOTLINES
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2/4/2010     A Panic That Takes Gold Down, Is A Very Dangerous Sign.
             for the market as a whole.  While the drop today took the DJI only to the lower 4%
             band, there are plenty of worrisome technicals.  The gap down on high volume
             makes the longer-term 30 yr chart show the DJI now coming down from the apex of a right
             shoulder.   This is downright scary.  A Buy B17 after long trend-breaks in a rally
             from a severe bear market low is not to be trusted.  A 10% - 13% decline from the
             top is the norm in these cases.  Instead of considering 10000 a likely bottom,
             9200 or 9500 is more likely, if we are lucky!


  


              I have suggested being hedged completely.  This means selling stocks that
             are below their 65-dma with weak internals (negative Accumulation.) My concern
             is that the situation could worsen,  Obama's fiscal conservativism right now is dangerous.
             The parallels with 1937are eerie.  With a 2/3 vote needed in the Senate, the US
             is dangerously close to being effectively grid-locked and unable legislateively
             to adapt to new circumstances, financial or otherwise.  The worsening employment
             picture cries out for attention.  Will it get it?  Meanwhile banks will get more and
             more populist anger focused on them.  Wall Street and stocks as a whole will thus
             be under more pressure.  But I would emphasize fiscal policy most here.  FDR's
             reforms of banking and Wall Street took place while the stock market was
             nearly quadrupling off the lows of 1933 just beforehe became President.  The 1937
             Crash grew out of FDR's shift to fiscal conservativism to appease  conservatives
             in his party.   That was a big mistake.  Obama should read about 1937, instead
             of making a speech every day.

       Tiger's CLosing Powers reversed steeply down today.  The Peerless Buy B17
         is in big trouble.  The simultaneous breaks in the 10 month up-trends of the DJI,
         SP-500, OEX, NYSE, NASDAQ and NYSE A/D Line uptrends were considered
         dangerous two weeks ago.  The DJI's failure of the last rally to reach the upper band
         and its rising wedge pattern were additional bearish elements, along with the
         clear breaking of the DJI's 65-day ma.   Yesterday, we noted it would be bearish
         if the DJI proves unable to get past its 65-dma, but we were heartened by the
         breaks in the CLosing Power downtrendlines of the DIA and SPY (Tuesday)
         and QQQQ (Wednesday).  Unfortunatley the market fell substantially more after
         the openings today, so much so that new CLosing Power lows were achieved.
         That action makes their trends now DOWN, especially in light of the increase
         in volume today, the breakaway move down and the simple fact that the DJI is
         below its 65-dma.  Today's breadth numbers were abyssmal.  There were only
         277 stocks up on the NYSE and 2861 down.   Only 40 millions shares were traded
         in the few advancing stocks.

         What came as an unpleasant surprise was how badly the market broke downwards
         today, taking everything with it.   Our Stocks' Hotline will take profits in all but the very
         highest AI/200 stocks and exit all long positions where the stock is now below its
         65-dma.  We will add some new short sales, too, among stocks making 12 month
         lows today.

          I believe there is a growing awareness that Obama's fiscal caution and
          conservativism will doom America and the World to bad second dip in the
          Recession.  Since the DJI and the market has assumed a "V" bottom, there
          could be an ample snap-back, perhaps even a 1937 decline.  The parallels
          between FDR in 1937 and Obama in 2010 are striking.  I have mentioned them
          here several times.  These ideas are expanded in the Blog that I wrote today, 
                  http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/Obamas1937/index.html  
        
         Obama now keeps talking about trying to better balance the budget in the
         middle of a Recession.  Of course, this should be a long-term goal.  But most
         economists, certainly Keynesians at least, feel strongly this is a disastrous way
         to reduce unemployment or end a near-Depression.   In 1937, FDR tried to court
         Southern Democrats by doing this.  It was one of the key reasons for the 40%
         DJI decline in the Fall of 1937.  In 1938, FDR listened to Keynes, stopped heeding
         his Treasury Secretary's advice and loosened the purse strings again and the
         market roared back.   So, an Obama 1937-like Crash cannot be ruled out.  Remember
         that years ending in "0" have a bearish track record, going back to 1890.

      Worse will be what happens when Obama's next Stimulus and Jobs Bills are up
         for a vote.  The recession, one can predict, will worsen with the new lay-offs that
         his policy shift brings about coupled with the big state and local government employee
         layoffs.  But in these desperate times, Obama's pponents will use his own words
         against him and he will be seen as too vascillating and unsure to be trusted by
         earlier supporters and independents.    Without effective Presidential leadership,
         the 2/3 vote requirement will stand and America will try to muddle through economically.  
         We will be revisiting what Japan went through in the 1990s, Britain went through
         from 1920 to 1939 and what America first experienced in the 1930s.  This will be very rough
         on the stock market.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        2/3/2010 

        Tiger'S CLosing Powers Have Now Given Buys, because their downtrends
         on the DIA, QQQQ and SPY charts have been broken above.  With the Peerless Buy B17,
         the odds favor a rally to the upper band.    But our Hotline remains hedged,
         being long stocks above the key 65-dma with positive internals and short
         those below it with poor internals...    I hear Obama now talking repeatedly about trying
         to better balance the budget in the middle of a Recession.  Of course, this should be
         a long-term goal.  But most economists, certainly Keynesians at least, feel
         strongly this is a disastrous way to reduce unemployment or end a near-Depression.  
         FDR tried to court Southern Democrats in 1937 by doing this.  It was one
         of the key reasons for the 48% DJI decline in the Fall of 1937.  In 1938, FDR
         listened to Keynes, stopped heeding his Treasury Secretary's advice and loosened
        the purse strings again and the market roared back.    So, Obama's 1937 cannot be ruled out.  
         (I have yet to hear anyone mention this on CNBC.)

The Buy B17  that now operates produces a profit in more than 90% of its cases.
        But January and Febriuary B17s are much weaker than B17s that occur in
        the rest of the year.  The 10-month uptrend-line breaks in the NYSE A/D Line and DJI are
        important.  Many people draw such trendlines and have learned that the market
        is apt to weaken for two or three months afterwards, while it builds a new base,
        often 10%-13% diwn from the peak.  Still, our Buy B17 now may surprise the pessimists.  
        A/D Line strength this past year has made all the difference technically.  There|
        are certain to be fund managers who will buy on the weakness that the market
        has not conveniently provided much of since last March's bottom.  The internals
        of the market are not deeply negative.  In fact, the Accumulation Index (IP21)
        is positive.

        I have said to delay buying until the CLosing Power downtrend-line of the
        ETF you are trading has broken its down-trend.    Such trend-breaks have
        gained better than 40% trading only the long side this past year.  To be sure,
        there are variations in its effectiveness over the years.  But it is reliable
        and seldom produces big losses.  Key strength after the opening should be
        expected pattern now.  Another rally to the 65-dma is needed, if only to show that
        that resistance there cannot now be overcome.    A move past the 65-dma should
        get the DJI to reach the upper band.  But the failure to get past the 65-dma
        in a week from now will be bearish, as this will turn down this key momentum indicator. 

       Today the DJI's rally stalled at the key 65-dma.  When you look at a great number
        of stocks, you may be struck by how oftem that moving average divides a stock
        which holds up and then rallies from a stock which breaks that barrier to the downside
        and has trouble getting back above it.   Here are some examples in key SP-500 stocks:
                    AAPL = Below 65-dma, at its resistance as ma flatens out, weak internals
                    ABT - Bouncing up from 65-dma with Bullish internals
                    AMZN = Could not rebound up past 65-dma, at its resistance as ma flatens out, weak internals
                    ANF = Cound not rebound up past its falling 65-dma and finally gave up trying.
                     AVY - Fell below 65-dma support late last week.  Bearish internals.  Unable to rally.
                     AYE - Unable to get past falling 65-dma in December and then caved in as internals weakened.
                     BMC - Unable to get past flat 65-dma ;ast week and slipping again.
                     DOC - Bouncing up from 65-dma with Bullish internals
       
        This demonstrates that not all stocks or industries are breaking down.  The key general
        market ETFs are an amalgam of many stocks.    Looking more deeply, You will be able
        to judge which industries still have upward momentum, by checking out their key
        representatives in the DJIA or by producing Index charts with TigerSoft.

       Presently, we have no count of stocks above their 65-dma, though the Power-Ranker
        gives this information for the 50-dma.    Because of the importance of the 65-dma,I will
        work on new software to let us see a year's chart of the percentage of stocks in a
        Tiger directory that are above this ma. I hope I can show it tomorrow night.  

        Using Closing Power trend-breaks you will often be able to better time Peerless and
        TigerSoft signals more safely.  The trend-breaks can be used to clinch these signals.
        The same thing is true with chart patterns and internal strength divergences.  Thus
        gold stock ANV's internal stremgth weakness at its recent highs was clinched as
        bearish when ANV's CP uptrend was violated.    We could then re-enter the stock
        recently at its base when the CP down-trend was violated.  And we can now either
        Sell at the apex of the potential right shoulder or wait for the next CP uptrend violation.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      2/2/2010  The DJI's Closing Power's Down-Trendline was BROKEN today.

           That should make the Buy B17 sufficiently reliable to add to long
           positions, even though the trade may only take the DJI to the upper
           band.  The Closing Power of the QQQQ is stil declining.

                   Home-Buildng Stocks are rebounding and seemed headed back to
            the top of their channel.  Improving home prices will aid recovery by
            taking pressure off homeowners and banks (Wouldn't want to forget the
            banks!>?) 

                   Oil Stocks Are Doing Well.  They are the leading group now. The Index has
            rebounded from its rising 65-dma.  Watching for stocks that are holding at their
            65-dma with postive Accumulation is a good trading strategy.  Watch NOG.
            Thought it shows a head and shoulders pattern, its high Accum will probably
            over-ride that.

                    
                  Chinese stocks recovered today from their rising 65-dma.  See the chart below.

.                  Buying stocks with good IP21 (Accumulation) levels at their rising 65-dma
            gas yielded an unusually high percentage of the best rebounders of the last two
            days.  These stocks are up more than 10% since Monday morning:
            ALV, AMR, BEAV (shown below), ENT, CY and  CBT.
 
                    A 11% correction is possible.  The DJI must get past the resistance
              of its 65-day ma.   But trend-breaks in the CLosing Power following
              Peerless signals are reliable.   Breadth was good today.  The NYSE A/D
              Line downtrend has been broken.     

                                                             DJIA 1975








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       2/1/2010  Buy B17. Wait for Closing Power To Break Its Downtrend to Buy More.
              Good Rally Today, but Closing Power Down-Trendlines Are Still Intact,.  Another
            good rally after the opening tomorrow would break downtrends very likely..   
            So, despite the Buy B17,  It Will Be Safer To Wait for The Closing Power To break
             Its downtrend                           

                   The key ETFs all show CLosing Power downtrends.  Wait for the Closing Power
            lines in the charts below to  rise above their downtrendlines before buying SPY,
            QQQQ, DIA, USO or GLD.    The CLosing Power downtrend dropped further today.
            Keep in mind that CLosing Power jumps up by how far above the opening the close
            is, but falls by far the close is below the opening.  Jumps at the opening like today's
            are risky to buy into when the CLosing Power is in a downtrend.  Openings are also
            dangerous to buy into when the Tiger Day Traders' Tool is in a downtrend.  This shows
            that there is likely to be more weakness than strength after an opening, because the
            difference from the daily openings to the daily lows is greater than to the daily highs 

              Personally I still think a 11% correction is most likely, now that the key
              uptrendlines have been broken, like we saw in 1975.  The internal strength
              readings now, especially breadth, are much stronger than in 1937.     

              One day rallies and next day fizzles just below the 21-day ma are what we should
              look for if the DJI matches npw the sell-off in 1975.  On the other hand,
              a continuation of Monday's rally with good breadth and a closing near the
              high should make us more optimistic.  Breadth was good today.  Another's
              day's advance would be most helpful.   

   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       1/29/2010    Buy B17. Wait for Closing Power To Break Its Downtrend to Buy More.

        There is hope, I think.  New lows on the NYSE and NASDAQ did not expand Friday
            from Thursday.   Despite Friday's wearkness, there was no support failure in either
            the Tiger Index of Home-Building or Financial Stocks.  HD rose +.67. The strength
            in the Dollar is helping the FED keep intererst rates low.  It is also hurting Gold, Oil
            (CVX -1.12) and XOM (-.53)  and exporting companies, particular high techs.  The tech
            wreck continued Friday: IBM - 1.36, MSFT - .98, HPQ - .72, INTC -.52 and QCOM - 1.29
            (-7 in two days.)   I would also suggest that tech stocks are traded more technically than
            other stocks.  The break in the uptrends of the DJI and NYSE A/D Line have more
            sway here.
                                                                           1937 Again?

                 The weakness in industrial malterials stocks (since 1/11/2010: AA - 26% and
            FCX (-24%) that we are now seeing is a warning that the dreaded second economic
            dip is starting.    The boost by the Government of autos and home--buildings is ending.
            2009's buying "spree" growing out of postponed buying in 2008 and replenished
            inventory-building appear to be ending.  Military stocks like BA have held up well. 
            The average consumer remains tapped out.  Will the government make up for the
            missing buying?    Maybe not.
           
                 Importantly, Obama is now talking of balancing the non-military parts of the budget.
             That was the mistake FDR made in the beginning of 1937, with dire consequences for
             both the stock market, the economy and employment.  Reading about 1937 is
             very helpful here:

                    Paul Krugman "That 1937 Feeling."
                    Bruce Bartlett  "Is Obama Repeating The Mistake of 1937/"
                    1937-1938 Wikopedia: http://wapedia.mobi/en/Recession_of_1937%E2%80%931938   

              The DJI had almost quadrupled under FDR from his Innauguration in March 1933
              (53.80) to March 8th (192.70).  So, his Treasury Secretary, Morgenthau, was able
              to sell FDR on the notion that the stock market was over-heating and another 1929
              crash could be avoided by tightening fiscal policies.  Was he wrong!  Here are
              1937 and 1937-1938 charts...

                                                 DJIA 1936-1937



                                                                         DJIA 1937
       

                                                                   DJIA 1974-1975

              Personally I still think a 11% correction is most likely, now that the key
              uptrendlines have been broken, like we saw in 1975.  The internal strength
              readings in the general market are stronger than in 1937. 

                  Truman, FDR and Andrew Jackson were the last Democrats to truly fight Wall Street elitism.
             Apparently, Wall Street is afraid  that Obama's rhetoric is real and they want to show
             him how they will fight back, namely by dropping stock prices and claim that he is hurting
             business confidence.  Everything I have seen of Obama outside the realm of rhetoric
             makes me feel that Wall Street has nothing to fear from Obama directly.  But it is true,
             his rhetoric does legitimize populist rage against the cozy coddling of Wall Street  by
             Washington insiders.  Goldman Sachs is and will be the lightning rod for this rage.  It is sure
             to become a whipping boy more and more and the 2010 Election Campaigns
             take shape later in the year.
                               "(The) proposed new bank tax...over the next decade, seeks to
                    collect $90 to $100 billion. This amounts, on an annual basis, to about half
                    of this year’s bonus for Goldman’s gold diggers alone. It’s speaking loudly
                    and carrying a stick made of paper mache."
             The risk for the bankers on Wall Street is that some smart politician somewhere
             will realize that the 2008 debacle and Goldman's subsequent behavior is a
              a perfect opportunity to become very popular with millions of ordinary tax-
              payers who know they have been tbadly served by present elites in both
              parties.

 1. Charles S. Hamlin (August 10, 1914 ? August 10, 1916) - ?

   2. William P. G. Harding (August 10, 1916 ? August 9, 1922)
             8/10/1916  90.10  to 83.70 on 8/24/1916 ...to 110.20 on 11/21/1916
              8/10/1920  86.20  to 88.90 on 9/20/1920 and then down.
   3. Daniel R. Crissinger (May 1, 1923 ? September 15, 1927)
             5/1/1923 97.40 to 92.80 on 5/21/1923... then 85.90 on 10/30/1923 
   4. Roy A. Young (October 4, 1927 ? August 31, 1930)
             10/4/1927 198.90 to 184.60 on 11/2/1927... then 200.90 on 12/19/1927 
   5. Eugene I. Meyer (September 16, 1930 ? May 10, 1933)
             9/16/1930 237.20 to 157.50 on 12/16/1930
   6. Eugene R. Black (May 19, 1933 ? August 15, 1934)
             5/19/1933 81.80  to 100.70 on 7/18/1933 
             and then down to 84.40 on 10/19/33 
   7. Marriner S. Eccles¹ (November 15, 1934 ? February 3, 1948)
             11/15/1935 99.70 to 103.50 on 12/6/1935 and then sidewise. 
             11/15/1939 - flat
             11/15/1943 - 131.60 to 136.70 on 12/27/1943
             11/15/1947 - 180.10 to 171.20 on 1/26/1948 
   8. Thomas B. McCabe (April 15, 1948 ? April 2, 1951)
             4/15/1948 - 180.30 to 192.90 on 6/14/1948
   9. William McChesney Martin, Jr. (April 2, 1951 ? February 1, 1970)
             4/2/1951 - 246.60 to 262.80 on 5/4/1951...to 242.60 on 6/29/1951
  10. Arthur F. Burns (February 1, 1970 ? January 31, 1978)
             2/2/1970 - 746.44 to 792.37 on 4/2/1970 ...to 631.16 on 5/26/70
             2/4/1974 - 821.50 to 831.66 on 3/13/1974 ... to 814.30 on 5/28/74
  11. G. William Miller (March 8, 1978 ? August 6, 1979)
             3/8/1978 - 750.87 to 866.51 on 6/6/1978
  12. Paul A. Volcker (August 6, 1979 ? August 11, 1987)
             8/6/1979 - 848.55 to 897.61 on 10/5/1979
             8/8/1983 - 1163.06 to 1272.15 on 10/7/1979  
  13. Alan Greenspan² (August 11, 1987 ? January 31, 2006)
             8/11/1987 - 2680.46 to 2722.42 on 8/25/1987
                                and then down sharply to 1738/74 on 10/19/1987
             8/12/1991 - 3001.34 flat...
             8/14/1995 - 4659.86 to 5216.47 on 12/13/95
             8/11/1999 - 10787.80 to 11326.03 on 8/25/95 ...to 10019.71 on 10/15/99 
             8/11/2003 - 9217.35 to 10453.92 on 12/31/2003 
  14. Ben S. Bernanke (February 1, 2006 ? )
             2/1/2006 - 10953.95 to 11642.65 on 5/10/2006 to 10796.14 on 6/13/2006

           Considerable  intermediate-term technical damage has been done and the market was very over-boiught.
           The break in an 11-month well-tested uptrendline has to be worrisome under any
           circumstances.  The DJI could not get past 10700.  The weekly chart of the DJI shows
           that was the broken support before October 2008.



                                THE STORM OF GEITNER'S COVERUP GETS CLOSER

                        The market's break last week is particularly, worrisome because Congress
          will question the Treasury Secretary when he was NY Fed Governor about his possible
          criminal misconduct in trying to squech public disclosure before his own confirmation
          hearings by the Senate of his role in the passing of $60 billion in tax-payer bailouts
          through AIG to Goldman Sachs and other big banks.  This pass-through of so much
          taxpayer money is a grotesque travesty of justice.  Obama says Geithner "knew nothing"
          about the NY Fed cover-up instructions that went out to AIG executives after the money
          went to Goldman, JP Morgan and other big European banks.  But that may not be so.
          How could he not know?  And how was Bernanle involved.  That could scuttle his hopes
          for another term as Fed Chairman.   And the net gets bigger.  This nefarious, massive fraud
          against taxpayers benefitting the biggest banks puts Obama right on the spot, too.
          What did he know about this and when?  Will he continue to turn on Wall Street for
          obvious political reasons and risk the destruction of the bull market or will he try to
          defend Geitner, and make himself even weaker politically. It will all come out, starting on
          Janaury 27th, in Congressional hearings.   GS Head and Shoulders Pattern Completed.


                               BREAKS IN UPTRENDLINES OF  ADVANCES
                                            FROM A SEVERE BEAR MARKET

          Historically, breaks in long uptrends after a severe bear market warn us to look for more a
          retreat than to just the lower band, despite the Buy B17.
             
          ==========  Depth of Decline after A/D Line and Price UpTrend Break =========
                      
        Year    High      Date         DJI       DROP     Next Low before rally to Upper Band
        ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   1932       9/7/1932    79.90      18.1%    9/19/1932  65.10   ... Rally to upper band.
                                                                                   Buy B17 on 9/13/32 at 69.90.  Another 6% fall.

                   1933       7/17/1933  108.30    18.1%    7/21/1933 88.70 ... Rally back to 105.30 on 9/18/1933
                                                                                   Buy B19 at bottom before rally.

                   1938       7/25/1938   144.90   10.4%     9/26/1938 129.90 ... Rally back to 157.50 on 11/10/1933
                                                                                    8/12/1938 B7/B17 was premature.

                   1942       subsequent bull market's uptrend continued up until 1946!

                   1971       4/29/1971    891.14    5.8%    8/10/1971 839.59 ... Rally back to upper band.
                                                                                    no timely Buy signal for rally to upper band.

                   1975       7/15/1975    881.81   10.2%      8/21/1975 791.69 ... Rally back to upper band.
                                                                                   B9 at lower band -7/22/1975 - premature
                                                                                   B17 - 9/16/1975-  good.
                                                                 
                   1988       gradual recovery. Lower band held on B9

                   2004       2/11/2004   10737.70  7.7%     5/17/2004  9906.91 (B2) ... Rally back to the upper band

                    ====================   DJIA - 2009-2010 ======================

         

  

                                       
                QQQQ violated its 21-day ma.  The Closing Power has broken its uptrend.
                OBV is bearish, but the Accumulation Index is bullishly rising.  It is still
                above its 65-day ma.


                          The TIger Day Traders' Tool correctly warned of the last two retreats.
                           It measures downside volatility versus upside volatility after the opning 
                        
---------------------------------------------- HOTLINES -----------------------------------------------------------

  Important Notice:   Redistribution of any text or concepts here is a violation of copyright laws.  This is valuable intellectual property.
   All violators will be subject to legal action.   Please visit www.tigersoft.com   Goggle TigerSoft and a technical subject, to get
   additional examples and a further discussion of concepts and terms used here.   See also our Books for sale. . 
                      
Overnight Market Action:  Bloomberg Futures around the world before the US Markets open.                                            

 Color Codes  blue or green  = new to this night's report or considered more important
                       black = from a previous night's report  

  Introduction. When reading this HOTLINE,  please note the dates that show when the comments in a paragraph or  set
  materials  were written.  Always read the first comments at the top with the most recent date.  They show the Buy or Sell
  which now applies.  Older comments are there entirely for background and to teach TigerSoft and Peerless technical analysis. 
  On a Peerless graph,  only the new and latest signal applies.   Again, always note the date at the top of a set of paragraphs.
                              
                                                                  INTRODUCTION.
                   Readers, our assessment of the stock market's future trends is based on the following. 
                   Google TigerSoft and these subjects to get additional links, besides those shown below.
                 
                   1) Peerless automatic Buys and Sells for intermediate-term trend. 
                                Details of Peerless Signals are given here as they occur.
                  2) Price charts and moving averages.
                  3) Closing Power and Closing Power Percent for 2-4 week trends.
                  4) Accumulation Index to measure support on weakness or distribution on strength.
                  5) Volume (and OBV to a small extent).
                  6) Breadth: Advances minus Declines.  P-Indicator,  A/D Line
                            Tiger Charts produce this for groups of user specified stocks.
                  7) Stochastics when they are the best trading system.  See QQQQ in 2003.
                  8) Relative Strength -  QQQQ/DJI rising is bullish.  Compare QQQQ Chart now, on this page, with 2003..
                  9)  CURRENT Seasonality   Example  9/1/2009
                  10.) CURRENT Sector Strength/Weakness Analysis.    Example  9/1
                  11) CURRENT NASDAQ New Highs/New Lows.   Interesting NH/NL Stocks. Example `10/15
                  12) News and Political Economy. See Tiger Blog
                  
                 See also  Predicting The QQQQ Using TigerSoft's Opening Power,
                 Closing Power and Tiger's Day Traders' Tool: 1999-2008  
=========================================================================================
                
                    OLDER HOTLINES

                   1/21/2010   Hotline   

                      We remain on a Buy.  And a new Buy B9 would occur if the DJI falls much
                    lower.   Studying 1933, 1938 and 1975, all years after severe bear markets,
                    shows that working with the NYSE A/D Line uptrend as long as possible pays off.
                    When it is violated, a 10% to 15% correction becomes probable from the
                    highs.   So far, the A.D Line is intact.  But Politics can trump breadth and introduce
                    new volatility as the market hastily adjusts to new realities that it had not foreseen. 

                    Read below more about how we can improve our sensitivity to impending weakness using
                    the Tiger Day Traders' Tool.  By itself, it can only give early warning of a market
                    earthquake.   The regular Peerless system and Tiger internal strength indicators usually
                    win out in the end.  Going back to 1915, I would say that there is very little that the
                    stock market has not correctly anticipated.  So, if Obama's rhetoric scares you or your stocks,
                    know that the market has probably anticipated it and the uptrend is telling you that
                    corporate power is confident that it is still in control.  That sense was supported nu today's
                    Supreme Court decision that corporations can spend any amount they like
                    on political campaigns.  

                        I was fooled.  I thought Wall Street would stay on good behavior mode
                 after what it did to investors in 2008.  That happened in 1988-1989 after index
                 trading computers went crazy with sell signals in October 1987.  But important
                 news is clearly over-taking the market now.  And the fall-out from it all is
                 uncertain.   So, investors with profits are taking them now, especially since the
                 DJI's long wedge pattern is breaking down. 

                      I stated that a few months ago that good breadth can trump low volume
                 on a rally.  Now it seems that politics can trump good breadth and bring a big
                 increase in volatility.  When Obama turned off the anti-Wall Street rhetoric
                 early in March last year, the market started to rally.  Now he is turning it back
                 on and it is falling.  Obama's rhetorical about-turns may serve his political
                 purposes, but they scare investors who want a higher degree of stability
                 and certainty.  The young Kennedy had to learn the hard way that picking
                 a fight with a corprate giant would tank the market.  That was in the Spring
                 of 1962.  Carrying a big stick is all well and good, but Obama should have studied
                 more history.  Speaking softly works better.  Action works best.

                    Volatility is important as a predictor of the market.  Peerless gives a Sell S6
                 when day-to-day closing volatility is low after a substantial rally.  We narrowly
                 missed one of these recently.  So, we need to go beyond the S6 rule.  One
                 simple way is to watch for early signs of weakness by having the Tiger charts
                 show when daily downside volatility after the opening becomes much greater
                 than upside volatility.  Tiger's Day Traders' Tool shows this presently in the
                 way it turns down quickly at the first signs of impending weakness after a rally.
                 Look at its chart of SPY for example.  See how the most recent high of the
                 TIger Day Traders' Tool did not confirm the last high.  I need to publish this indicator
                 regularly and show it appled to ten years of an ETF, like the DIA, QQQQ or SPY.


           

                    

                      Bullishly for stocks and corporate power, the Supreme Court has re-issued
                its determination of 1886, that corporations are "people" and enjoy the privileges
                of all American citizens.  Today, in a 5-4 decision, they have declared unconsitutional
                a myriad of laws, state and Federal, and lower court decisions that limited
                how much corporations could legally spend on political issues and campaigns. 
                Absolute free speech exists for corporations.  Legally they now can spend as
                much as they want to buy candidates and elections.  Dissenters warn this ruling
                has the potential to wreck American democracy, because it places all political offices 
                on sale.   Elections and candidates will be much easier to buy, especially Senators
                in small states.  Ironically, it will also encourage political shakedowns of corporations. 
                It is well within reason to expect corporate logos and names to replace red power ties
                and eventually the Republican and Democratic Party. 

                    Bearishly in the news today, Obama is now picking a fight with Wall Street banks.
                In a patently obvious effort to recapture some of the public approval he clearly
                has lost for coddling Wall Street too much to date and surrounding himself with
                their spokesmen, he now says he wants a new Glass Steagal separation of investment
                and commercial banks.    Wall Street reacted today, as they most often do when there is
                talk of government regulation, exactly as a pampered child would.  They wailed
                and wailed about the unfairness of it all and now are taking their toys home, as it were.  
               
                    And all the bearish news is not out.  Geitner will appear before Congress on Monday
                 to explain why his NY Federal  Reserve tried to conceal from the public his embarassing
                 decision to have American taxpayers pay all of AIG's debts to big banks, 100 cents on the
                 dollar.   This will hurt Obama, as he seeks to defend Geithner.  He is clearly trying
                 to use his anti-bank rhetoric today to confuse voters who he hopes will not
                 pay attention to the Geithner hearings.  Goldman got $12.7 Billion from US taxpayers
                 as a result of Geithner's secret-at-the-time decision as head of the NY Federal
                 Reserve.  

                  Goldman Sachs reported quarterly earnings today of $4,700,000,000 ($4.7 BILLION)
                  Yet it fell nearly 7.  Like GS, JPM is also testing important support, a violation of
                  which would complete bearish head and shoulders patterns.  As GS led the
                  market up, we must watch to see if it leads the market down below support.
                

                     


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             1/20/2010        
                  Chinese Gov't Staged Selloff Leads To US Weakness

               Peerless and its technical indicators are still rising.  The rising wedge pattern the DJI
                      has been trapped in looks like the price pattern seen at the end of 1915 shown below.
                      But the OBV Line is stronger and there has been no Peerless Sell, as would have been
                      seen near the top then.

                                               COULD A CHINESE MARKET CRASH HAPPEN?
                                                  WOULD IT LEAD TO A US BEAR MARKET?



                      Today the Chinese market sold off badly,  Yesterday, we showed that the one A/D Line in
                      decline among all the major indices was the one for Chinese Stocks.  We also noted last
                      week that the Chinese market had become very effervescent in some areas, many of which
                      we had played on the long side.
                
                      Reading about China is instructive, if only because they probably now own us and could
                      do great damage to our standards of livings if they stopped buying our Treasury bonds.
                      Roubini warns of a CHinese real estate bubble.    
                      See also  China Property Bubble May Lead to U.S.-Style Real Estate Slump ...
                      Forbes wrote:

                              "Take a close look, however, and you may come away thinking China
                            resembles nothing so much as Japan shortly before its stock and property markets
                            melted down two decades ago. A speculative frenzy of borrowing and bidding up
                            is at work. If and when prices crash, there will be hell to pay..." It's a Ponzi scheme
                            whose head is the central bank," "

                    Steve Forbes is certainly no fan of China, so I don't take seriously what he says, but it
                    is true that China would be badly hurt if the US was run by tariff-supporting Republicans,
                    and that may be the longer-term fear that Brown's victory in Massachusetts may have set off.  
                    They would also be badly hurt if the US Dollar were to fall dramatically.  Today, the Dollar
                    rose sharply.  See the chart below.



                         In the past, the Chinese government has shown considerable skill in stimulating
                    their economy and then cooling it off when speculative excesses appear to great.  It does this
                    by itself selling shares in stocks, reducing capital that the Central Chinese Bank of China
                    makes available and by imposing direct restrictions on stock speculation, something the
                    Fed has not directly done since 1968 in the area of margin requirements.  So my guess
                    is that the Chinese market will not easily collapse, "ponzi-style" any time soon. It will stabalize
                    and then rally again, but probably after additional weakness.   The Dollar's strength today
                    reflects hot Global Money seeking the most stable currency. 

                       I am not sure how to study the Chinese stock market directly for the elast ten years.
                    So here are the charts of GRR -the Asia Tigers Fund.  It invests in Asia stocks, except Japan.
                    First, here is the current chart,  Its Accumulation Index is still postive.  So, it may not
                    even break its rising 65-day ma. 

                      What is important to see is, first, that previous years' peaks take time.  If history repeats,
                   we should get ample warning of a major top forming in GRR. 

                       More important, GRR seems always to top out after the DJI does.  That was true before the
                   biggest US declines: in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2007.   So, a top in GRR is not an immediate
                   predictor of the DJI, rather a DJIA top predicts a top in GRR form 3 to 1o weeks later. That
                   makes GRR normally a good defensive play late in a bull market.

                                             Date of DJIA TOP                      Date of GRR Top          DJIA LEAD TIME
                                              1/14/2000                                    2/9/2000                            3 weeks
                                              3/12/2002                                    5/28/2002                         10 weeks
                                              2/11/2004                                    4/2/2004                            7 weeks
                                              10/9/2007                                    10/29/2007                         3 week
     

                                                 Current  GRRR Chart - 1/20/2010


                               GRR and QQQQ - EARLY 2000 TOPs
                      DJI topped three weeks before QQQQ.  A 3-month top pattern was needed for GRR


                                                 
                                  GRR and DIA AT MAY 2002 TOP
                     GRR topped 2 months after DJI.  Internals were much stronger at QQQQ than DJI.

                                                 
                                    GRR a\nd DIA AT EARLY 2004 TOP
                             GRR and DIA peaked at about the same time.
                             Note extensive top pattern needed in GRR.



                                                   GRR and DIA AT OCTOBER 2007 TOP

               DJIA peaked a week before GRR in 2007.
               A 4-month top pattern needed for GRR
               Top was called by negative non-confirmation by Accum. Index
              

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Peerless Remains on A Buy

                   The market Still Remains on A Peerless Buy.  Closing Power and A/D Uptrends Continue
                    Wall Street is on its "best behavior" after 2008.  New highs jumped, confirming
                   the big advances by much watched AAPL and IBM.  Institutions and Individuals
                   that have been waiting for a pullback, are capitulating and buying big positions
                   in the most expensive stock, to put a lot of money to work quickly.
                              GOOG + 7.62    AAPL +   IBM +   MA +2.10  RTP + 6.10
                   
                   See how the NYSE A/D Line Breadth, DJI/NASDAQ.ETF Accumulation, ETFs CLosing Powers
                   and OBV Lines are confirming the uptrend and the advance today.  Look for breakouts
                   by the key averages soon.

                   Volatility and volume are not low enough to bring a Sell Compare the DJI's OBV Line
                   now (just below) with that of January 1916, just before weakness that brought
                   a 13% decline. (See second below)

                                                                DJI 2009-2010

                 
                                                                 DJIA - 1915-1916

                
          
                                                          Most A/D Lines Are Uptrending
                    The A/D Lines for the averages and foreign ETFs are rising steadily.   Here are the A/D Lines
                    for the DJI-30, NASDAQ-100,  SP-500, Foreign ETFS and Financial Stocks.  These uptrends
                    should give us confidence to still buy and hold now.



              


/
                                                                                                      Chinese Stocks are the exception.


                   Low priced stocks making new highs and previously showing high Accumulation, to the point
               we would consider insider buying are making some very nice advances. MSPD illustrates
               this. Speculators are clearly in the market. 



                      SABA has just made a flat-topped breakout after six months of hesitation.  It would
                       surprising for it not to rise, at least, the height of its pattern, 4.5-3.5, fromt he point
                       of breakout, 4.5.  And if the stock surpasses 5, it becomes more credible AND
                       marginable.   The heavy blue Accumulation shows planned and careful buying.
                       "Someone knows something here."

                
                          Note, too, that biotechs are coming to life.



===================================================================================
                   1/17/2009         Hotline  ---  Peerless Remains on A Buy

                       Is The DOW's Friday 100-Point Drop A Sign of More Weakness Ahead?
                  Counter-trend weakness before a three day weekend is common.  This coming week will
                  be a much better test of the market's strength. The market has been rising when gold rises.
                  Right now, spot Gold is up $7. So, that bodes well for tomorrow.  But, since 1966 the DJI has
                  risen only 43.6% of the time over the next two weeks.  After that it typically strengthens.
                  I should noted that our Tiger Elite Service had no trouble finding lots of stocks whose AI/200
                  score is above 190, whose current Accum. Index is above +.40 and whose Closing Power is
                  very strong.  Mostly, they are funds or companies investing in and trading bonds.   True, they are
                  defensive.   But their strength also suggests big investors are not concerned about a near-term
                  sharp rise in interest rates or inflation. The market seems to want to stabalize in the zone
                  10000 to 10600.  Lateral action after the big move up since March is constructive and typical
                  of markets that will eventually go higher after some backing and filling. We will be watching
                  breadth closely as well as how the Geithner coverup of the $13 billion taxpayer gift to Goldman
                  plays out.  In my opinion, Geithner would NOT have been confirmed as Treasury Secretary if there
                  had been no cover-up in the Fall of 2008 by the NY Fed when he was its head.  That Obama
                  will not appoint an independent prosecutor shows how the Office of The President has become
                  dangerously arrogant, corrupt and out of touch.  This will all come out soon enough.  And it should
                  drive bank stocks lower.  It would be a surprise for their weakness not to effect the rest of the
                  stock market. 

              Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. operates as a closed-end, nondiversified management investment company.
         The fund invests primarily in U.S. corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities,
         U.S. treasury bonds and notes, foreign government bonds, international corporate bonds, short-term investments,
         mortgage-backed securities, and U.S. government obligations. Its portfolio includes investments in beverages,
         commercial banks, consumer finance, diversified financial services, food products, media, road and rail, thrifts
         and mortgage finance, electric utilities, and oil and gas sectors.
                                             
                                               Watch the NYSE's A/D Line Uptrend.

                  A break in the A/D Line uptrend would - if it next occurred - probably change the
                  whole complexion of our market in 2010.  But that has not happened yet.  And
                  there is precedent for the  A/D Line staying above its uptrend for more than
                  a year.  See 1942-1943 below or the 1958-1959 example in the report I have just
                 completed: Behavior of The A/D Line in New Bull Markets after Bear Markets.

                New Minor Signals:  40-Day  Minor B11s and S11s Show A/D Line Non-Confirmations

            (1)   These reliably reinforce current Peerless signals.
            (2)  When traded against the current Peerless signal and the trend of
                   the 65-day ma, they may bring moves back only to the 21-day ma.  If
                   they do not, it shows how strong the current trend is.
           (3)  Both B11s and S11s work well if the DJI is in a trading range.
           (4)  While a number of significant market bottoms show B11s, more
                  often the A/D Line is weaker than the DJI at the bottom, showing
                  how widespread the state of panic is.
           (5)  I can find no cases of major tops called with S11s without there
                 also being a major Peerless Sell.

            After testing, new Peerless Software will include these as minor Signals
            to be used as explained above. 


                 A/D Line non-confirmations (NCs) of new highs often occur at major market tops.
                 But defining A/D Line NCs is tricky and even clear-cut A/D Line NCs, like the one
                 shown below in December 1942, do not necessarily bring declines that are big
                 enough to reliably trade.  In the second chart below, I have added a temporary
                 B11 and S11 to show A/D Line NCs that do not confirm a 40-day DJI price high
                 or low.  The new year, 1943, markedly improved the upwards slope of the
                 A/D Line and DJI prices.  Eventually, the A/D Line was broken.  If that does
                 not occur for more than a year, the ensuing decline may be quite shallow, as
                 it was in 1943, shown in the second chart below.  Note another thing.  A/D Line
                 NCs like those triggering a Buy B11 or an S11s work sporadically, when all
                 the data back to 1929 is examined.  Minor NCs may have no effect on prices.
                 That shows a strong and resilient uptrend.  They may bring small retreats by the
                 DJI back to the 21-day ma.  That was true in 1961 when a Democrat had just
                 become President and is true now.  In such cases  - and you can see the 1961
                 case in the study mentioned, and the A/D Line NC  signals this past year in the
                 third chart above - a break in the A/D Line uptrend will  likely bring a shallow 5%
                 to 10% decline and a test of recent lows or the lower band.  A Peerless Sell
                 and a new Sell S11 makes the A/D Line uptrend break more important.

                                  1942 Ended With What Might Be Considered a Bearish
                                  A/D Line Divergence.  So did 1988.  But in both cases,
                                  rhe following years brought substantial rallies.
.

                            
                     Eventually, in May the 1943 A/D Line broke its uptrend, after a Peerless Sell S9. 
                     That   began a five month, 10% correction, before the bull market resumed.  If
                     the A/D Line now can avoid breaking its uptrendline for 13 months, the parallel
                     with the the 1942-1943 case would probably be important.  And in the
                     ensuing trading range, monor A/D Line NC B11s and S11s would likely
                     work well. 


===================================================================================
                 1/14/2009          

                             Study The New Highs/Lows   

                    Peerless is still on a Buy. The Accumulation Index for the
              DJI could be higher.  But breadth remains superb.  The A/D Line
              is in a powerful and steady uptrend.  The ratio of new highs to
              new lows is very positive.  The DJI is lagging the more speculative
              indexes.   The key ETFs' Closing Power are rising.  Wall Street
              is on its "best behavior" after its misconduct and fraud (which
              Goldman denies) in 2008.

                  In the news Treasury Secretary defends the 100% payout to
              Goldman and other big banks by the taxpayer when AIG went
              bankrupt and its debts were repaid.  If he is so proud of the
              billions he allowed the big banks be paid by the taxpayer,
              then why did his NY Fed office try to cover this up in 2008
              and 2009?   Stay tuned.  Geithner is not going to make it, I
                  predict.   That will hurt Wall Street big banks and possibly
                  the stock market.  Wall Street's special influence in the
                  Obama Administration will be disclosed if Geithner is challenged.
                  Let's see if the Republicans can step up to the plate now.

                       In the 1970s, before I wrote Peerless, I was much influenced
                  by Nicolas Darvas' system for playing new highs. See the Blog
                   I wrote in 2007.   In particular, I would watch the ratio of NYSE
                   new highs to new lows.  As long as the 10-day ma ratio was 4:1,
                   the market was safe enough to keep buying breakouts.   I
                   watched the market mainly with weekend charts I subscribed to.
                   What I noticed was that before a big decline would start, there
                   would be a number of false flat-topped breakouts.  That is
                   still something to look for.  But now, I would look for the key signs
                   that a breakout is apt to be false.  In particular, I count the number
                  of breakouts that occur with the current Accumulation Index
                  (termed "IP21" here, after the original name of the Accum. Index)
                  that are in negative territory.

              First, I go to
              http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/asp/52weekshilow.asp?exchange=NYSE&status=HI
            
              Second, I either download these stocks or build a directory of
              just these stocks using the BUILDER.exe program on our data page.

         Third, I run the older TigerSoft program (dated 7/27/2006) and
              rank these new highs for Current Accumulation (IP21) using
                 Ranking Results + User Set Ranking... + 21 + OK + 3 + OK
              The seventh column displays the stocks by IP21.
               (You can also use our spread sheet program after
              running the Analysis.  From Peercomm. just click View at the top,
              then Tiger Spread Sheet and then click the heading for "IP21".
              This ranks the data by IP21. )

              Here I compare the number of stocks with a current Accum.
              Index (IP21) value greater than +.25 (considered healthy)
              with the IP21 number under zero (bearish).  Thursday night |
              the ratio was  75 to 14.  That seems healthy.  What we do not
              want to see are stocks starting to look like MED.  
              
                            MED - False Breakout Picked Up on by IP21 NNC
             (Accum. Index - Negative NC on new high near upper band.)

                      
              It should be empasized that a negative non-confirmation (NNC)
              of a new high by the Accumulation Index, which is often
              a Tiger S9, does not always bring a quick reversal and breakdown. 
              If the Accumulation has been steadily very positive, a brief
              dip into negative territory may mean very little at the
              time of the NNC and the stock may keep rising.  But this
              is a sign of dangerous speculation.  See the chart of CTEL
              below and then the DJI chart of 1929!   (With Peerless
              charts of the DJIA, such IP21 NNCs are called Sell S12s. 
              The Peerless DJIA Sell S9 is actually a NNC by the
              P-Indicator.    See Peerless Sell S12 Sell S9 )

         CTEL's SPECULATIVE ADVANCE FEATURES NNC oF NEW HIGH




           TigerSoft IP21 NNCs are bring S9s when the DJIA is
            treated like a stock.  (If this is confusing, just know that
            both types of NNCs (AI and P-Indicator) are bearish.
            And they are doubly so, when both indicators are negative
            as the DJI reaches the upper band.)


                    It should be also be said - and emphasized - I looking for
             stock breaking above flat tops that show high Accumulation.
             I take this to represent insider Buying.  CLC (below) seems perfect,
             until you ask the question: "Why has it taken the stock so
             long to breakout?"  We usually do better if we find these
             such stocks soon after a fresh and reversing Peerless Buy.
             as in our Stock's Hotline's MSPD.
             . 







=====================================================================================
                   1/13/2009       
                    Peerless Remains on A Buy B13. 
                Sticking with The Peerless Signal Usually Pays Off.
     
                        Once again the DJI shook off news that might have sunk a technically vulnerable
                   market.     The creme of Wall Street's elite bankers had their integrity challenged
                   publicly by Congress and the immense biblical JOB-like tragedy of the Haitian
                   earthquake should and would normally shake our rosy confidence that man can always
                   prevail over natural calamities.  I take these to be signs that the market wants to go higher.

                       What vehicle should users employ to take advantage of Peerless Buys and Sells.
                  The answer may be obtained with historical studies using the Peerless software's ability to
                  let the user super-impose the DJI based Peerless Buys and Sells signals on any chart
                 the user wishes.  Using DIal Data I can get the data back to 1980 on any stock that is
                  still extant and trading now.  (So, could users if they want to pay $40/month and would like
                  me to set them up with this capability). 

                     To help us decide how best to use Peerless I gathered the data year by year since
                  1999 when the major ETFs, DIA, QQQQ and SPY, were established.  I super-imposed the
                  DJI signals on the DIA, QQQQ and SPY for each year and let the computer calculate
                  the trading gains for each year from the first signal of the year.  I think this shows that
                  the QQQQ is generally the best instrument to buy using the Peerless signals.  AAPL has been
                  a great stock to trade using the signals.  Its current chart is not so bullish looking now.
                  So, I post below some other QQQQ stocks that now look attractive. 

                    Three sytematic approaches should be mentioned.  One could reasonably search the NASDAQ-100
                  using Tiger's POWER-STOCK-RANKER software:
                     (1) Buy the highest Power Ranked DJI stock,  now ISRG, but it has tripled since March
                  and shows weakening Accumulation; or
                     (2) Buy the highest Ai/200 stock, ADBE (see below); or
                     (3) Buy the highest current Accumulation Index stock with a rising CLosing Power, FISV.
                  As it turns out, FISV seems ready to score its own breakout past 50 and should be watched closely
                  for that.  (See chart further below.)

         June-Dec 1999  March-Dec 2000   Feb-Dec 2001    Feb-Dec 2002  
DIA       +10.8%          +22.6%          +5.6%           +30.7% 
QQQQ      +38.5%          +11.5%          +9.3%           +9.3% 
 Buy/Hold +77.5%          -45.2%         -15.6%          -28.6%   
SPY       +12.4%          +22.4%          +6.9%           +6.3%
AAPL      +97.4%          -20.1%         +12.3%           +1.2%      
=========================================================================                    

        Mar-Dec 2003    Feb-Dec 2004    April-Dec 2005  Jan-Dec 2006
DIA       +39.9%         +11.4%            +4.6%         +24.6%
QQQQ      +54.5%         +10.4%            +13.5%        +19.5%
 Buy/Hold +51.5%         +14.2%            +13.9%         +1.7%
SPY       +37.5%         +12.0%            +7.2%         +19.9%
AAPL      +57.0%         +94.4%           +94.7%         +43.9%
=========================================================================             

       Mar-Dec 2007        Mar-Dec 2008      Jan-Dec 2009    
DIA       +25.3%              +10.0%          +42.3%
QQQQ      +33.0%              +11.4%          +61.7%
 Buy/Hold +21.5%              -30.9%          +62.8%
SPY       +20.9%              +13.7%          +51.8%  
AAPL     +114.5%              +21.1%         +136.6%