wpe50.jpg (1913 bytes)     TigerSoft News Service    8/12/2008      www.tigersoft.com    


                         How Much Lower Can Gold and Oil Go?

                         How TigerSoft Can Help You Trade Price Swings Caused by Insiders' Manipulation.

  by William Schmidt, Ph.D.  - Creator of TigerSoft
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TIgerSoft Reveals The Intent of The Manipulators

Gold Looks cheap.  Is it?  If the Administration
can get oil prices to drop this sharply in August, who's
to say they can't get an even bigger drop closer to the
election in November?  TigerSoft would say watch
the trend of the internal strength indicators AND
never doubt the extent to which the Administration
will now try to manipulate Oil, Gold and the Dollar.

Gold 2007-2008
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Gold Stock Index - XAU

Optimized Red Buys and Sells continue to call the tops and bottoms of gold stocks. 
Use TigerSoft's internal strength indicators to confirm the signals.
We have no
buy signal yet, despite what looks like a very short-term oversold market.

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Individual Gold Stock - NEM

We have a recent buy signal, but only one internal strength indicator
is rising.  This is Tiger's Opening Power.  Don't trust this trend.
Strong openings are often deliberately deceptive.  They are part of the
manipulation. TigerSoft teaches you to consider Strong Openings and
Weak Closings to be bearish. 
Right now, we need to see more evidence
of a trend change from our key internal strength indicators.

------------------------------------------ Newmont Mining ----------------------------------------------
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Silver Stock - Pan American Silver - PAAS

All the key indicators for PAAS are now declining.  Calling a
bottom is dangerous here.  The automatic Buys and Sells
have gained 96% this past year.  There is lots of resistance
in PAAS at 30 now.
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Silver Stock - Silver Standards - SSRI
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8/13 - Here are two higher Accumuolation Gold stocks to watch

GG is Fidelity's biggest gold holding,
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GBN trades very well and is a good long-term hold, too,
based on past high accumulation.
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What else should we expect?

(1) from an Administration that would lie the US into a
$3 trillion dollar unnecessary war half way around the world
against a country that did not attack America?

(2) from an Administration that has worked with Big Oil, its biggest
source of campaign contributions, every step of the way
to bring them bloated profits far beyond their wildest dreams?

(3) from an Administration that has given hundreds of
billions of dollars to campaign contributors in the form of
fat, no-competition, cost-plus, unsupervised
military and prison contracts?

(4) from an Administration that now wastes a Trillion Dollars
a year on 700 Military Bases in 130 countries? 

(5) from a Government that refuses health care, decent pay and
job security to its own citizens while with less than 5% of the
world's population it now spends 75% of what the entire world
spends on making war?

Plutocracy Anyone? 

In Fascsm, I would be arrested and you would
have no choice in elections. But make no mistake
about it, this is government by Big Oil and
Military Contractors, pure and simple.

In these circumstances, it should come as no surprise
that the economy and the markets are being flagrantly manipulated
just before an Election to maintain the status quo.

Oil, The Dollar and Gold

The Administration desperately wants to keep the lid on
official inflation and quiet down the widespread discontent about
rising oil prices.  So, what do they do?

The easiest way for the government to get oil prices to drop is:

(1) To make a few harmless noises about price manipulation in the energy
futures market.  This sends a warning signal to futures' traders to "cool it."

(2) Persuade oil companies, who have reported $100 billion in 2007-2008
profits, that it is in their long-term self-interest, temporarily to drop prices
until after the Election. 

(3) At the same time, as a quid pro quo, let the energy companies
have the rights to drill in more Federal Land.

It's Working.

Traders at the Energy Futures Market quickly catch the signal
that they have to stop pushing prices up so recklessly for a while. 
They sell their hefty long posiitons, which they have been built up with
heavy margin buying.  Those firms that don't catch the signal
soon find themselves over-extended if they used margin and
they are forced to liquidate at prices 20% below just a month ago.

Meanwhile, oil companies can
start to sell more of their oil in the US for a few months.
instead of overseas. 

After 7 years of silence about the gathering upwards pressures
on energy prices that owe to oil futures' speculation, which requires only
6% down, the Democratic Congress is at least finally raising the
issue of the role played by energy speculators.  If such margining in
crude oil futures was not allowed, many experts believe oil prices would
drop by 60% very quickly
.  Just the talk of changing the rules has
sent a cold chill through the futures industry. The Administration
has NOW chosen to do this, because of the impending Presidential Election.

For years, it let speculators drive up oil prices without much
restraint by regulators.
Through a convenient regulation exception granted by
the Bush Administration in January 2006, the ICE Futures trading
of US energy futures is not regulated by the Commodities
Futures Trading Commission, even though the ICE Futures US
oil contracts are traded in ICE affiliates in the USA. And at Enron's
request, the CFTC exempted the Over-the-Counter oil futures
trades in 2000.

http://www.thestuccocompany.com/hvac/Oil-Prices-32245-.htm )

Finally, last month, seven years into its term in ofice, the Administration 
charged oil trading firm with price manipulation. 
The Commodity
Futures Trading Commission accused Optiver Holding with
manipulation of crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures
on the NY Mercantile Exchange. "The CFTC said the firm attempted
       to "
bang the close" by amassing large positions just before
markets closed."  The Bush appointed CFTC had repeatedly
maintained that speculators were not to blame for the
rapidly rising oil prices.  Source.

In the US, oil companies have little choice but to drop prices
as the demand here is falling very rapidly.  US oil demand
during the first half of 2008 fell by an average of 800,000
barrels per day compared to a year ago.   For the same period,
non-industrial countries' increased their demand by 1.3 million b.p.d. 


Crude oil rose from 87 to 145, more than 60%,
between late January 2008 and July 2008.  The reporting
of Exxon's $40 billion profits was the signal for a reversal.

Where Will The Present Decline in Oil Bottom?

TigerSoft uses a number of internal strength indicators
to see what insiders and Big Money are doing.
The first to  top out was TigerSoft's Accumulation
Index, then came the break of the blue 50-day ma, the breaks
in the OBV-Line, ITRS and Closing Power.

With all the internal strength indicators still falling,
TigerSoft users must patiently wait.  A 50% retracement
of the last 12 months' advance would mean a decline below $108.
We're patiently waiting for the key signs of a bottom yet.  
Crude Oil is approaching its rising 200-day ma
at 110.  It is now in what we call the "sweet spot", a zone just
above the 200-day ma, where botoms often do occur.

Crude Oil ==============================

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=========================== US Dollar ==============================

The decline in Oil prices directly strengthens the Dollar,
because of how much oil the US imports.  If oil prices
continue to fall, then the Dollar should continue to rise
and Gold will fall.  If oil prices stabalize in the 110-120
zone, Gold will also seek a bottom. 

But why should we think the Government has used up
all its ammunition to bring oil prices down right before
the November Election?

There are other reasons for thinking that the Dollar is being
manipulated to help Republicans win the White House in 2008.

1)  Between December 1974 and August 1976 - a period when
a  Republican was trying to stay in office - Gold fell 43.4%. 
When Democrats took over the White House in 1997, Gold ran higher
at a very steep angle.  Gold fell down to 110 in August 1976,
but hit 690 in 4 years later!

(Source:  http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6440_Charts_for_8-11-2008_Log_chart_of_Gold_Monthly.pdf   )

2)  Central Banks have been accumulating dollars over the past three weeks
at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US
trade deficit. The simplest conclusion is that they were intervening
in currency markets.  In effect, they were buying dollars for the purpose of
propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of
the cliff before the Election.
(See - http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com/central-bank-intervention-is-the-reason )

3) I can find no evidence of significant central bank sales of gold in the offing. 
With mine production continuing to decline, it raises the question: where
is the physical supply going to come from to satisfy any increase in physical demand? 

4) Unless there is going to be a severe world recession,
which would dampen demand for all commodities,
gold may well rebound almost as quickly as it came down,
after the Presidential Election in November. 

The Wild Card - 8/13/2008

What if the Administration chooses to start
a new war to get Americans to "rally around the flag"?  
Outlandish?  The War on Iraq in 2003 was expected to be a neat little
"walk in the park" preparatory to the 2004 Presidential Election.  Today,
there are reports that Bush is putting US troops in Georgia.
For what purpose, except to try to "look tough" to the
American electorate.  This is a dangerous act.  It is a
provocation to Russia.  Gold is rallying now because of it. 

As I said yesterday, if the Adminsitration chooses to increase tensions,
to "look tough" and get Americans to "rally around the flag",

"then Gold and Oil will rise very soon.  If not, its rise will probably
wait until after the Election.  The Adminsitration just has
too many reasons for keeping oil and gold prices down.  

---------------------------------------- US DOllar -------------------------------------------------
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   When you think of this Administration, think of unprecedented manipulation to benefit certain groups.

                       War Contracts -  http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/3-07-2008/index.html

                       Federal Reserve and US Elite Banks.

                       SEC and Wall Street - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/July-18-2008/index.html

  More Reading - Stock manipulation and the selling short of phantom shares.  This incorrectly says
that naked short selling is liegal.  It is not, except for market makers.  Short selling can ruin a company,
its shareholders and its employees.   This is pure manipulation.  The SEC has decided to allow this
illegally manipulative stock, except for key financial stocks that are among the cronies of the head
of the SEC.  Many companies' stocks have been on lists of excessive naked short selling for months
and months.  The SEC does not care.  It is in bed with the crooks.  Only stock brokerages would
describe this as a exaggeration or a "red herring" issue.  What else would you expect a crook to say?        

Manipulation in the Silver market - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/3-21-2008/index.html                 
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