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First Peerless Sell
Signals for End of December And January: 1928-2009 33 were profitable 3 were unprofitable (C) 2009 William Schmidt, Ph.D. - All rights reserved. ================================================================================= Gains Losses Late December and January Sells ..S9...S12 1/ 30/ 1929 312.6 +3.6% ...S9...S12 1/ 10/ 1930 250 +32%? Reversed on 1/23/31 B7 171.8 ...S7 1/ 22/ 32 78.8 +0.3% Reversed on 2/11/32 B7 78.6 ...S12 1/ 2/ 1935 104.5 +4.2 ...S12 1/ 6/ 1938 128.9 -3.6% ...S1 1/ 8/ 1940 151.3 +4.4% ...S10 1/ 29/ 1941 126 +4% ? Reversed at 119.9 with B19 2/20/41 Classic Head and shoulders breakdown. ...S12 1/ 5/ 1942 114.2 +6.5% ...S1 1/ 14/ 1944 138.2 -0.9% ...S9 1/ 10/ 1946 199.2 +0.3% ...S10 1/ 14/ 1948 177.4 +2.1% Reversed at 173.7 on 3/22/1948 by B12 ...S1 1/ 28/ 1952 274.2 +3%? Reversed at 267.1 on 10/51/1952 by B2 ...S9...S12 1/ 7/ 1958 447.8 -2.4% ...S9 1/ 5/ 1960 685.5 +9.8% ...S10 1/ 5/ 1962 714.8 +24.6% ...S4 1/ 10/ 1966 985.41 +22%? Reversed at 775.72 on 8/30/66 by B19 ...S12 1/ 9/ 1968 908.29 +7.8% ...S12 1/ 2/ 1970 809.7 +5.6% ...S9 1/ 5/ 1973 1047.49 +16%? Reversed at 874.17 on 8/15/73 by B17 ...S12 1/ 2/ 1974 855.32 +3.6% ...S8 12/ 27/ 1976 996.09 +6.2% ...S10 1/ 7/ 1978 793.49 +5.6% ...S4 1/ 16/ 1980 865.19 +10.1% ...S9...S12 1/ 2/ 1981 972.78 +3.5% ...S12 1/ 6/ 1983 1070.92 +3.8% ...S12 1/ 6/ 1984 1286.64 +12.5% ...S4 1/ 3/ 1990 2809.73 +7.5% ...S9 12/ 28/ 1999 11476.71 +4.5% ...S8 12/ 28/ 2000 10868.76 +12.5% ...S12 1/ 6/ 2003 8773.57 +5.2% ...S8 12/ 28/ 2004 10854.54 +5.9% ...S10 1/ 24/ 2005 10368.61 +1.4% ...S9 1/ 5/ 2007 12398.01 +2.3% |
First Peerless
Sell Signals of The YearJanuary Pivots-Down DJIA Short Sale Gain/Consequence
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...S9...S12 1/ 30/ 1929 312.6 +3.6%
Reversed on 1/23/31 B7 171.8
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...S9...S12 1/ 10/ 1930 250
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...S1 2/ 2/ 1931 168.7 Reversed on 2/10/31 B20 181.20
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...S6 12/ 21/ 31 78.1 -0.6% Reversed on 2/11/32 B7 78.6
This is in Santa Claus period. It should be dropped.
...S7 1/ 22/ 32 78.8 +0.3% Reversed on 2/11/32 B7 78.6
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...S1 1/ 11/ 33 63.80 +2.7%
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...S4 2/ 1/ 1934 108.9 +0.3%
...S12 1/ 2/ 1935 104.5 +4.2
...S4 2/ 5/ 1936 150.6 -3.7%
...S15 2/ 10/ 1937 180.8 Reversed by B8 6/14/1937 165.5
...S12 1/ 6/ 1938 128.9 -3.6%
no sells in 1939
...S1 1/ 8/ 1940 151.3 +4.4%
...S10 1/ 29/ 1941 126 Reversed at 119.9 with B19 2/20/41
Classic Head and shoulders breakdown.
...S12 1/ 5/ 1942 114.2 +6.5%
...S9 6/ 7/ 1943 141.8 2.4/141.8
...S1 1/ 14/ 1944 138.2 -0.9%
...S9 5/ 15/ 1945 164 -3.6%
...S9 1/ 10/ 1946 199.2 +0.3%
...S10 4/ 14/ 1947 166.70 -1.7%
...S10 1/ 14/ 1948 177.4 3.7/177.4 Reversed at 173.7 on 3/22/1948 by B12
no sells in 1949
...S9 4/ 14/ 1950 215.3 -0.7%
DJI rallied to 228.40 on 6/12/50 and declined
to a low of 197.50 on 7/13/2009.
...S4 8/ 30/ 1951 269.9 -1.6%
...S1 1/ 28/ 1952 274.2 Reversed at 267.1 on 10/51/1952 by B2
...S10 4/ 23/ 1953 270.7 +2.7% Isolated S10
This is not visually confirmed as a breakdown.
no sells in 1954
...S9 2/ 1/ 1955 409.7 -0.1%
...S12 3/ 6/ 1956 491.4 -1.3%
...S9 7/ 8/ 1957 518.4 +10.3%
...S9...S12 1/ 7/ 1958 447.8 -2.4%
...S9 4/ 17/ 1959 624.1 -2.2%
...S9 1/ 5/ 1960 685.5 +9.8%
...S9 8/ 3/ 1961 715.7 Reversed at 539.2 on 6/22/1962 by B16
...S10 1/ 5/ 1962 714.8 +24.6%
...S10 7/ 1/ 1963 701.3 -3.1%
...S8 5/ 13/ 1965 938.9 +5.1%
Note compact head and shoulders pattern.
...S4 1/ 10/ 1966 985.41 Reversed at 775.72 on 8/30/66 by B19
...S12 3/ 16/ 1967 868.49 -0.9%
...S12 1/ 9/ 1968 908.29 +7.8%
...S9 3/ 28/ 1969 935.48 Reversed at 769.93 on 12/17/69 by B13
...S12 1/ 2/ 1970 809.7 +5.6%
...S9 5/ 6/ 1971 937.39 +5.2%
Note ensuing head and shoulders pattern.
...S4 3/ 9/ 1972 942.81 +3.3%
...S9 1/ 5/ 1973 1047.49 Reversed at 874.17 on 8/15/73 by B17
...S12 1/ 2/ 1974 855.32 +3.6%
...S8 7/ 1/ 1975 877.42 +3.5%
...S9 3/ 24/ 1976 1009.21 +4.2%
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...S8 12/ 27/ 1976 996.09 +6.2%
...S9 3/ 15/ 1977 965.01 +6.4%
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...S10 1/ 7/ 1978 793.49 +5.6%
...S4 8/ 23/ 1979 880.38 +9.5%
...S4 1/ 16/ 1980 865.19 +10.1%
...S9...S12 1/ 2/ 1981 972.78 +3.5%
...S9 4/ 1/ 1982 833.24 +6.7%
...S12 1/ 6/ 1983 1070.92 +3.8%
...S12 1/ 6/ 1984 1286.64 +12.5%
...S9 10/ 14/ 1985 1354.73 -6.3% Big loss (All-Time-High)
...S9 4/ 29/ 1986 1825.89 Reversed at 1826.07 on 7/9/86 by B9
...S9...S12 5/ 6/ 1987 2342.19 +5.2%
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...S9 12/ 28/ 1987 1942.97 +1.6%
...S1 2/ 26/ 1988 2023.21 -1.7%
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...S9 10/ 4/ 1989 2771.09 +4.8%
...S4 1/ 3/ 1990 2809.73 +7.5%
no sell signals in 1991
...S15 4/ 14/ 1992 3306.13 +1.6%
no sell signals in 1993
...S2 8/ 30/ 1994 3917.3 +3.1%
...S1 2/ 27/ 1996 5549.21 +1.1%
...S9 4/ 22/ 1997 6833.59 -4.9%
...S12 7/ 7/ 1998 9085.04 +16.0%
...S9 2/ 23/ 1999 9544.42 -11.6% Big Loss!
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...S9 12/ 28/ 1999 11476.71 +4.5%
...S4 1/ 11/ 2000 11511.08 +4.8%
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...S8 12/ 28/ 2000 10868.76 +12.5%
...S12 4/ 10/ 2001 10102.74 -5.1% Big Loss
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...S9 2/ 26/ 2002 10115.26 Reversed at 8191.25 on 7/24/02 by B19
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...S12 1/ 6/ 2003 8773.57 +5.2%
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...S15 2/ 11/ 2004 10737.7 +7.2%
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...S8 12/ 28/ 2004 10854.54 +5.9%
...S10 1/ 24/ 2005 10368.61 +1.4%
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...S9 5/ 5/ 2006 11577.74 +4.9%
...S9 1/ 5/ 2007 12398.01 +2.3%
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...S9 12/ 7/ 2007 13625.58 +3.4%
...S9 3/ 24/ 2008 12548.64 +9.3%
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...S5 2/ 17/ 2009 7552.6 +8.3% Use Extreme Bearish Mode
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