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FURTHER TIGERSOFT READING: Peerless Stock Market Timing: 1928-1966 Track Record of Major Peerless Signals Earlier Peerless-DJIA charts 7 Paths To Making 25+%/Yr. Using TigerSoft Index Options FOREX trading Investing Longer-Term Mutual Funds Speculative Stocks Swing Trading Day Trading. Stock Options Commodity Trading Tiger-Blog: Stocks, Political Economy and Insights that you will not get in a timely way from the mainstream Media. These are designed to let you see the "Larger Picture." Also Occasional Personal Notes. |
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==================== FIDELITY SECTOR FUNDS =========================== Use this study to monitor ever-changing sector strength. 21 Day GAIN - 5/20/2008 32 of 42 funds were up for last month. Strongest Pct Change FNINX Networking +10% CSCO, GOOG, JNPR, MRVL, EMC, RIMM, new COGO, NTAP, BRCM, new ARRS FSPTX Technology +7% CSCO, MRVL. NOK, YHOO, new MR, RIMM, new VSEA, new CTRP Multi-Media, Outsourcing, Natral Resources, Wireless +6% Weakest Pct Change Insurance -5% Financials -3% Chemicals and Home Finance -2% ============================================================================= |
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Recent Studies That Apply. 2/5/2008 First quarter declines in a Presidential Election when a new political party is going to win the White House. In a Presidential Election year, Wall Street has to factor in the policies of a new President. When a new political party takes over the White House, there tends to be weakness longer in the Presidential Election year. Since 1920, in 7 of the 8 cases where a new party gained control of the White House, the market did not reach a bottom until March at the earliest (2000). April saw two bottoms. July produced the low twice. October did the same as July. Only in one year, did the DJI fall all year. In 1920, the DJI declined all year, from 109 to a low of 72 in December. In 1932, the DJI fell from 70 at the beginning of the year to the Depression bear market low of 41 in July. 1952 is an exception. The DJI fell only from 270 at the start of the year to a low of 257 in April. It then rallied for the rest of the year as the market looked forward to a Republican more pro-business President. In 1960, it fell from 685 at the start of the year to low of 568 in October. It then rallied. 1976 was an exception. The DJI rallied at the start of the year and closed the year near its highs. In 1980, the DJI suffered a sharp decline in February and March, from 900 to 755 in April. In 1992, the DJI went sidewise for the year, The final low was in October. In 2000, the DJI angled downward, with two deep "pot-holes'. The year's low was in March. ========================= 1977 and Seasonality =============================== The 1977 experience shows a steady erosion may lie ahead for stock prices now. Or, the decline may be rapid, as short sales are now allowed on down-ticks. I said last week that: "I consider the situation dangerous. If the FED is going to act, it must do so quickly and dramatically. Why is it delaying? Seasonality is bearish. I have pointed out how often the DJI pivots down early in a Presidential Election year. Presumably, it must get used to changing agendas and priorities from the would-be Presidents. Arthur Merrill first pointed this out in 1984 in his "Behavior of Prices on Wall Street". Studying all the Presidential elections years from 1886 to 1983, he notes than Januarys are up 54%, Februarys up 46%, Marches up 70%, Aprils up 47%, Mays up 47% and Junes up 50%. The mean for all months was 56%. =========================== Pivoting Down in January =============================
Another bearish point: it is bearish that we would have had
a major Sell in December,
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NYSE
and NASDAQ New Highs (note link) and http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-newhinyse-newhighs.html NYSE NHs New Lows ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5/20 NYSE 57 16 NASDAQ 16 48 5/19 NYSE 76 10 NASDAQ 22 13 5/16 NYSE 105 11 NASDAQ 30 39 5/15 NYSE 56 8 NASDAQ 21 45 5/14 NYSE 36 15 NASDAQ 20 40 5/13 NYSE 68 13 NASDAQ 40 28 5/12 NYSE 36 13 NASDAQ 29 33 5/9 NYSE 32 19 NASDAQ 12 57 5/8 NYSE 34 23 NASDAQ 14 58 5/7 21 25 NASDAQ 12 71 5/6 66 10 NASDAQ 26 27 5/5 26 9 NASDAQ 25 33 5/2 23 9 NASDAQ 26 40 5/1 30 9 NASDAQ 29 28 4/30 16 11 NASDAQ 13 17 4/29 NYSE Not Available NASDAQ 12 32 4/28 30 8 4/25 34 7 4/24 22 12 4/23 14 40 4/22 33 41 4/21 77 13 4/18 62 7 4/17 not available. 4/16 NYSE 101 8 NASDAQ 29 41 4/15 NYSE 48 74 NASDAQ 18 53 4/14 NYSE 29 66 NASDAQ 7 132 ------------------------- Earlier are NYSE H/L --------------------------- 4/11 3 34 4/10 17 13 4/9 19 24 4/8 20 8 4/7 24 5 4/4 30 5 4/3 24 5 4/2 26 8 4/1 16 5 3/31 4 23 3/28 not available 3/27 3 15 3/26 12 12 3/25 18 7 3/24 20 8 3/20 10 37 3/19 1 70 NYSE NHs- LNN NASDAQ NHs- CLHB, CGPI amd VLNC 3/18 19 29 3/17 4 419 3/14 15 151 3/13 unavilable 3/12 7 58 3/11 unavailable. 3/10 3 291 NHs=CRT, SBR, XEL^E on NASDAQ ATAI, NPTE 3/7 2 170 NHs=HLF and KNM Also 2 NASDAQ stocks made new highs: ATAI and RESP (buy out) 3/6 7 20 3/5 13 44 3/4 2 102 3/3 16 106 2/29 3 123 2/28 39 45 2/27 24 12 2/26 44 6 2/25 47 9 2/22 10 30 2/21 12 36 2/20 21 9- 2/19 16 23 2/15 3 24 2/14 11 33 2/13 12 13 2/12 11 19 2/11 10 18 2/8 11 23 2/7 3 24 2/6 5 23 2/5 3 18 2/4 16 5 2/1 23 5 1/31 13 9 1/30 8 14 1/29 12 6 1/28 6 8 1/25 21 35 1/24 No NYSE data. This is for NASDAQ 7 34 1/23 6 33 1/22 8 212 1/18 0 308 1/17 3 247 1/16 8 131 1/15 8 206 1/14 29 53 1/11 13 93 1/10 25 24 1/9 22 224 1/8 10 394 1/7 21 152 1/4 4 406 1/3 28 202 1/2 16 125 12/31 9 56 12/28 12 121 12/27 13 95 12/26 53 27 12/24 58 14 12/21 58 67 12/20 31 125 12/19 12 133 12/18 11 138 12/17 4 233 12/14 10 131 12/13 16 57 12/12 11 44 12/11 6 43 12/10 60 14 12/7 44 12 12/6 93 31 12/5 62 69 12/4 26 106 12/3 34 65 11/30 36 35 11/29 36 60 11/28 34 73 11/27 19 176 11/26 18 230 11/23 12 99 11/21 14 444 11/20 22 499 11/19 20 415 11/16- 20 234 11/15 8 189 11/14 9 121 11/13 15 126 11/12 11 287 11/9 18 360 11/8 41 388 11/7 60 364 11/6 129 146 11/5 51 230 11/2 62 186 11/1 46 130 10/31 196 40 10/30 112 47 10/29 237 37 10/26 184 43 10/25 103 82 10/24 56 60 10/23 52 50 10/22 22 92 10/19 15 187 10/18 108 83 10/17 73 72 10/16 44 100 10/15 54 78 10/12 161 21 10/11 98 20 10/9 173 14 10/8 57 14 10/5 131 6 10/4 51 11 10/3 21 9 10/2 82 16 10/1 146 5 9/28 43 18 9/27 97 18 9/26 81 27 9/25 39 27 9/24 49 20 9/21 71 70 9/20 40 13 9/19 89 5 9/18 89 11 9/17 22 31 9/14 26 27 9/13 31 32 9/12 30 49 9/11 23 18 9/10 15 47 9/7 6 30 9/6 24 15 9/5 14 18 9/4 37 12 8/31 26 9 8/30 16 22 8/29 21 19 8/28 3 27 8/27 13 15 8/24 19 7 8/23 11 10 8/22 9 10 8/21 7 21 8/20 8 24 8/17 10 34 Quite a recovery 8/16 4 634 Extreme! 8/15 1 549 8/14 2 332 8/13 8 125 8/10 3 174 8/9 22 146 8/8 70 63 8/7 28 141 8/6 21 261 8/3 13 279 8/2 29 66 7/31 11 160 7/30 14 176 7/27 8 221 7/26 11 503 (correct?) 7/25 18 215 7/24 12 232 7/23 81 78 7/20 34 74 7/19 112 65 7/18 S9/S12 45 NC! 80 (Source:http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/asp/52weekshilow.asp?exchange=NYSE&status=HI) |
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================ 1/1/2008 Predictions 2008 Outlook ================================ Presidential Election years have their own stock market patterns and dynamics. We will want to be on the alert for a first quarter decline and then six months of backing and filling in a broad trading range, followed by a year end rally that lets November's victorious partisans celebrate. This pattern is quite pronounced. See it in 1944, 1948, 1952, 1956. 1960, 1968, 1972, 1976 (except it had first quarter rally), 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004. Exceptions are 1964, 1996. I expect the SEC to bring charges of insider trading on some well known companies. Mattel and Washington Mutual look like candidates. That will depress investor confidence and the stock market. It should further weaken finance and mortgage companies, after a burst of short-covering in January because year-end selling of losers has lifted. See http://www.tigersoft.com/Insiders/index.html (SEC quote and index) http://tigersoftware.com/Insider-Trading-News-Reviews/12-30-2007/index.html (WFC, C) We can learn from 2007 about how to pick the very best stocks. Look at my year-end study of the best performing stocks of 2007. As usual, we learn to look for price breakouts with gaps and high volume, provided TigerSoft's Accumulation Index shows high Accumulation bulges of insider buying. Steady Accumulation and rising OBV and relative strength lines are also bullish signs appearing in most of the best performing stocks. Sometimes, these stocks are hard to buy, because they move up so quickly. Keep in mind this is how you get aboard the stocks that will turn out to be the year's biggest gainers. See http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/12-31-2007/index.htm |
5/15/2008 - Why is the market not respecting the recent S9s and S12s
I got an email today about what makes the market now different, so that the Sell S9 and Sell S12 have not worked. He knows Peerless well and his question was a good one. I have previously mentioned here that when the P-Indicator turns positive for 3 days after an Sell S9, there is typically a 2% to 4% rally lasting 4-6 weeks, and then a decline to the lower band. Well, the six weeks are now up and the DJI is 3% up from the first S9. What's up with Peerless. Here was my response: "The FED is the big element here. 1957 experience. 50% jump in DJIA following rapid 40+% cut in prime rate, "Presidential Election years don't bring big sell-offs. They're postponed. Look back at 1972, 1976 and 1980 when we last had inflation (food and fuel). Somehow, the market was stabilized in these years, even though when the political forces holding the market up were removed the following year, the market fell. "The A/D Line downtrend-break is a Buy B6 based on original rules. "If you study all the 10%+ sell-offs, you can see this is a problem. I have tried to look back and learn. So the new program has some more rules that prevent bad S9s and S12s. But they still can occur. "The turning up of the 65-day ma is important and the crossing over above it for a week of so. Using that as a Buy until there is a new major Peerless sell or the DJI penetrates back below the 65-day ma works well and will part of the new Peerless.. "The DJI is weighted by price. So higher priced stocks have much more weight. And that includes IBM (computers are strong), XOM and Chevron, as well as BA and UTX. Military contractors are immune to govt cut-backs, it seems, in a mild recession. "In Presidential Election years the market from March to September gyrates between support and resistance. The swings are larger than the bands in a number of the years past. So the move now above the first touching of the upper band has precedent. "Oil stocks and prices do not move with Peerless Buys and Sells historically. Yet oil stocks showing earlier bulges of Accumulation are clearly the place for investors to be. You can see this in many of the bullish new highs shown below, as well as the Tiger chart of Light Crude." |
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