Taking A Much Longer Perspective on The Stock Market. It took 55 years for the DJI to rise tenfold between 1900-1955. In the following 52 years it rose from more than twenty fold. While the trend been strongly up since the mid 1942, it has now near the top of a price channel. A period of consolidation as developed between 1966 and 1982, with a flat top would be "technically constructive". If the chartist accepts the principle of such a price channel, there is much more downside risk than upside reward. The optimist will interject that all the bear market bottoms have been at higher and higher levels since 1974. Bear markets since 1939-1932 have all seen 20% to 45% declines in the DJI. The deepest was the bear market of 1973-1974, 45%. If you're concerned about Bear Markets, check out our Short Selling and Market Timing books and software. www.tigersoft.com |
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