TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotlines
Samples - 3/24/2010 - 4/12/2010
Earlier Hotlines -
Links removed for these older hotlines. They are available to subscribers...
2010 2/12/2010 - 3/22/2010
1/15/2010 - 2/11/2010
5/1/2009 - 6/11/2009
4/12/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
If there is a retreat, it should be shallow
4/12/2010 10006 la/21-dma= 1.015
21dma-roc = .433 P= +316 Pch= -8 IP21= .077 V = 20 Opct = .426
21dma-roc >.70 shows unusual momentum. A reversal down is more unusual.
More information on back-testing this soon.
IP21 (Current Accum.) >.25 make it harder for a downwards reversal.
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(C) 2010 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
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3/30/2010 When Selling A High Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on Weakness Is A Good Strategy.
3/27/2010 - Indian ETFS Using Peerless Buy and Sell: So Very Profitable since 1998
3/11/2010 Tiger Weekly Buy B12s on All Stocks, ETFs, Commodities.
3/1/2010 - Many Bubble Stocks Are Going Higher.
2/20/2010 - Watch The Pros To Catch The Tops in "Bubble" Stocks.
Market Tops Seem To Follow Their Break-Downs
HOTLINE - 4/12/2010
Overnight Market Action:
Bloomberg Futures around the world before the US Markets open.
24-hour Spot Chart - Gold 24-hour Spot Chart - Silver Dollar and Currencies
5-day DJI Chart - 4/12/2010 10980-11000 is support
Daily NYSE 224 New Highs - NYSE 3 New Lows Bullish.
Daily NASDAQ 149 new highs - NASDAQ 4 new lows. Bullish.
So long as the ratio of new highs to new lows is 10:1, it's hard to predict a significant
decline. New lows exceeding new highs within 4 days of making a new DJI high,
on the other hand is very bearish.
HOTLINE - 4/12/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
Gold's Internal Strength Is A Warning That The Rally in Stocks Will Be Limited.
Stay long is our recommendation. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 73% of the time
in the week following April 12th. In fact, the DJI rallied 63% of the time in the
month after April 12th.
Volume was low, as usual. But the move past 11000 showed good breadth and the
internals have not slipped so much down from their previous highs to make a decline back
to the lower band a high probability. The Closing Power uptrends are still rising.
I went through about 250 of the SP-500 stocks to see if there are any head and shoulders
patterns among their charts. There were none, except AA's. Oil, retail and financial
stocks, particularly, are quite strong.
By my thesis, the strength in the bank stocks is intentional on the part of the Fed and the
Obama Administration. Sadly, the Power Elite finds it impossible to help their banker friends and
also create Main Street jobs directly. That is a contradiction that only they seem to still
deny. They must gamble that the rising stock market will give the rich and the
surviving middle class enough extra money to boost consumer demand. But will what
they buy really be made in America?
Gold, Bankers and Stocks
The Power Elite's role now in propping up the Dollar would be nice to get data on.
They do seem now to prefer a strong Dollar, which especially helps the big US banks
to keep and attract deposits. My guess is that the Fed-Administration-Banker triumvirate
are probably shorting Gold to discourage a run upwards in it. Again no information is
available. A Goldman man runs the Commodities regulatory agency. He will not permit
big short sale positions to be disclosed publicly. Only big long positions must be revealed.
How long will the FED-ADM team succeed in holding down Gold? Look at all the Accumulation in
the perpetual contract for Gold (GO1620). (I believe the futures market in Gold is more
important and a better predictor than GLD. It seems likely that GLD represents public
buying or selling, while the trading in Gold futures is done by big profesionals. )
I keep remembering how from 1977 to 1980 when Democrats took over from Republicans
and unemployment was very high, Gold quintupled even as the Fed raised rates steeply.
But there are other President-Democrats. FDR ended all speculation in Gold. But, Obama is
not only no FDR, he is also no Carter. I think he is trying to be more like Clinton.
In financial matters, Clinton took financial marching orders from Greenspan, Rubin and Summers,
all representatives of Wall Street. Under Clinton, Gold first rose from 330 to 420 and held there
until 1996. Then it began a long slide downward to 250 in late 1999, as stocks became
a much better investment. If stocks were presently at the start of a 5 year advance,
as in 1995-1999, Gold would be in a decline or showing red Distribution from TigerSoft.
That it now shows so much Accumulation, suggests that Wall Street's efforts to rekindle
a long bull market will probably not be successful.
GOLD IS NOW UNDER HEAVY ACCUMULATION
If Gold were about to go into a long decline -thereby showing stocks would rally much
further - one would think it would show heavy red distribution, as it did in 1996 when it
was starting a four year decline.
Generally, it is best to focus on high AI/200 stocks with the market up nearly 9%
since the first of the year. Then look for high current Accumulation (IP21) and rising
Group: Stocks with Bullish Internals
SP-500 - D - 41.18 (AI/200=188, IP21>.25 )
NASD-100 LNCR - 47.18 (AI/200=178, IP21>.25)
FAST - 51.90 (AI/200=140. IP21>.25)
NHCONF LCUT - 13.54 (AI/200=200. IP21>.48)
VOE - 50.23 (AI/200=184, IP21=.43
PHT - 16.44 (AI/200=199, IP21=.26
LNCR - 47.18 (AI/200=178, IP21=.32)
AIG - Turnaround
Look at AIG's chart below. You can see how important the 65-dma was and how the
Closing Power's trendbreaks have timed the stock's turns superbly. The AI/200
has been very negative for a year. Eventually, the stock will decline. At least, the
is usually true with stocks showing so much red Distribution.
HOTLINE - 4/9/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy.
The 10,000 Barrier Almost Overcome
The DJI is challenging the 11000 psychological resistance. This actually seems to be
the top of the resistance zone that crumbled in 2008 when Paulson demanded $800,000,000
for his Wall Street buddies, "or else". The shock of that collapsed the market below
the attempted 10600-11000 support. As we all know, broken support becomes resistance.
It is that resistance which the DJI has been eating up for the last few months. It seems
that now the resistance may be nearly all eaten up. This is difficult to assess, admittedly,
and volume has been low. Nevertheless, it now looks like the DJI is close finally to surpass the
rest of the 10600-11000 resistance. With Peerless on a Buy and the NYSE A/D and CLosing Power
Lines still uptrending, we have to remain bullish. I think I am correct that the Power Elite
wants, almost desperately, for the rally to continue. The alternative, with unemployment
still so high, is too grim. 4/8/2010 12000 or Bust. The Power Elite's Biggest Gamble of All"
2008: DJIA's -10600-11000 Resistance Has Been A Barrier to DJI's Advance in 2010.
I think that the operative Peerless Buy signal should be respected. Confidence in Peerless
grew for me as I researched this weekend my new study of Peerless and trading SPY.
In particular, besides great gains on the SPY using Peerless, I noticed that after a
+30% Annualized Return on SPY since 1993.
big advance since 1993, when a long trade on the SPY was up more than 8.4%, as now,
the odds have been good (10 of 16) that SPY will rise still more and achieve a gain of more
than 13% before the next Sell. In the other 6 cases, the SPY could not rise to a gain of more
than 11.9%. That might take the DJI only to 10200. Should this less bullish scenario play
out, it is still worth noting that only shallow declines followed the next Sell in these 5 cases:
+2.6%, +0.5%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +5.7%. So, the conclusion I reach is that the odds are
perhaps 60% that the DJI will keep rising meaningfully. But if there is a Sell signal soon,
only a shallow decline will follow.
Cases where the SPY Gained more than 8.4% aon a Buy: 1993-2010
2/27/1996 Sell S1 +3.3% decline after earlier +43.7% rally
4/22/1997 Sell S9 -6.8% rally aftter +13.1% rally
9/18/1997 Sell S12 +2.3% decline after +14.1% rally
4/28/1998 Sell S15 +12.4% decline after +16.4% rally
6/18/1999 Sell S12 +2.8% decline after 36.0% rally.
- 12/28/1999 Sell S9 +2.6% decline after 11.9% rally - minor additional rally
- 10/10/2001 Sell S9 +0.5% decline after 8.5% rally. - minor additional rally
10/15/2003 Sell S4 -1.3% rally after 17.9% rally.
- 2/11/2004 Sell S15 +4.7% decline after 9.4% rally. - minor additional rally
- 12/28/2004 Sell S8 +4.4% decline after 9.6% rally. - minor additional rally
5/8/2006 Sell S9 +5.4% decline after +14.4% rally.
1/5/2007 Sell S4 +2.1% decline after +13.4% rally.
- 7/17/2007 Sell S9 +5.7% decline after 11.8% rally. - minor additional rally
- 3/27/2009 Sell S5 -4.4% rally decline after a 9.3% rally. - minor additional rally
6/9/2009 Sell S8 +5.6% decline after a +14.6% rally.
10/21/2009 Sell S12 -1.9% rally after a 20.0% rally.
Current rally is +8.5%/
-------- PEERLESS SIGNALS ON DJIA ---------
HOTLINE - 4/9/2010 10997 la/21-dma= 1.016
21dma-roc = .474 P= +323 Pch= 1 IP21= .117 V = 26 Opct = .426
21dma-roc >.70 shows unusual momentum. A reversal down is more unusual.
More information on back-testing this soon.
IP21 (Current Accum.) >.25 make it harder for a downwards reversal.
SP-500 - Closing Power is making a new high.
QQQQ - - Closing Power is making a new high.
DIA - - Closing Power is making a new high.
HOTLINE - 4/8/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy
The Triumvirate-Power Elite (the FED, Obama and Big Wall Street banks) have gambled big
that they can keep the stock market rising. Given their financial orthodoxy, perspectives
and self interests, they really have no other alternative. Their control seems unshaken
by the current blue-ribbon panel looking into the causes of the 2007-2009 Crash and who is
to individually blame. The "Power Elite" (this is easier to spell!) want to demonstrate that
they are very much in control. One way to do this was to keep Goldman Sachs rallying.
Another is to turn up the market and move it past the psychological resistance of 11000.
See - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/April-9-2010/Index.html
Below are the charts of Goldman, DIA and QQQQ, No Closing Power sells seem
possible tomorrow, in that it would take a very weak close after a very strong opening to
break the Closing Power uptrends. 11000 is a good target to bring in more trading volume.
That is not lost on Wall Street.
Looking at the Tiger data base NHCONF and running the bullish screen, it is clear
that insiders and professionals are still pushing upwards high Accumulation stocks.
Use TigerSoft and view the charts of G, PHT, CHGY, MRT, HYT, RT, VCBI
HOTLINE - 4/7/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy
We still have no new Peerless Sell. The A/D Line uptrend is intact. Since the Closing Power
for the QQQQ did not confirm the recent new highs,. we will consider any break in its
uptrendline to be a short-term sell. Today, I can still find more stocks that look like they will
rally than fall. But prudence probably dictates taking some profits in stocks not showing
high or lengthy blue Accumulation. After all, 11000 is a logical point for intense resistance.
Bearishly, volume keeps rising on down-days, too. So, our Stocks' Hotline sold advised
selling a few lower AI/200 stocks.
I have argued that what makes this market so unusual is the amount of MONEY the Fed is
pumping into it. It is as though all the big players have been provided trillions in capital, as long
as they use the money to buy, not make cheaper business, home or personal loans. I don't
think this strategy of the Financial-Politcal Power Elite will change on its own until the
DJI is even higher. As long as the Dollar does not collapse, the Fed will probably continue
to keep rates very low. A re-valuation upwards of the Chinese currency might change
this. But for now, the Dollar's Tiger chart has all "bullish" notations and its Closing
Power is in an uptrend.
Wall Street's failures and excesses were the subject today of the "FInancial Crisis Inquiry
Commission" http://www.fcic.gov/hearings/ Its chairman is Phil Angelides, former California
State Treasurer interbiewed Greenspan and Rubin. http://www.fcic.gov/reports/
Greenspan says "I was wrong 30% of the time"?
Ex-Citi exec says he warned Rubin on mortgage risk
Ex-Citi executives face questions on mortgages
Such talk, I think, caused the decline today.
But take heart, the market would have crashed wide open, if this panel were really about
to do its job. The DJIA would have fallen 500 points is the panel was moving to recommend:
1) a separation of investing and commerecial banks functions into different
2) the break-up of the too-big-to-fail banks,
3) the imposition of a stiff windfall tax on Wall Street's big bonus executives
in the bail-out firms,
4) a challenge to the Fed's secrecy in the matter of the trillions in bank bailouts and
5) clear refutation of those who would give the Fed even more powers vis-a-vis banks.
I think we can safely bet that there will be no expose of the secret arrangement between
the Administration, the Fed and Wall Street Banks, in providing these banks trillions from
taxpayers in return for worthless toxic debt collateral. There is also very little chance that
anyone will challenge the Federal Reserve, Greenspan, Bernanke or Bernanke for being
far too chummy with the very bankers that caused the Crash. I think that I can guarantee
no one on this panel will attack their central bankers' perspective as being unable to conceive
of economic growth that does not depend first on Wall Street handouts and a Wall Street
bull market. Lastly, I would bet that none will attack the central bankers' perspective that
conveniently forgets how dangerously undemocratic the highly massive and monopolistic
Wall Street banks are as they push around politicians of both parties with millions and
millions of dollars in what are politely called "campaign contributions"
That's why Goldman Sachs rose today and why such talk as was heard today will NOT much
dampen the spirit of the bulls.
succinct exposition and summation on how Wall Street and the Federal Reserve
are boosting stocks by risking a bigger bubble than in 2000 for stocks, 2004 for housing and
2008 for oil, is offered today by Dylan Ratigan.
DIA - ETF for DJIA
Closing Power Uptrend - violated
Bullishly both Opening & CLosing Power are rising (above their rising 21-dma).
TIGER INDEX OF SP-500 and SPY
Both Opening and Closing Powers are rising.
This suggests we are in a vertical ascent phase.
Closing Power-Percent - violated its uptrendline.
The CP and CPP have not confirmed the recent highs.
87% of the SP-500 stocks are above their 65-dma.
TIGER QQQQ and INDEX OF NASDAQ-100
QQQQ - All Bullish
Closing Power Percent is not confirming the advance, could easily break its uptrend-line.
and could be forming a bearish Closing Power head and shoulders..
86% of the NASDAQ-100 stocks are above their 65-dma.
That uptrend has been slightly violated.
HOTLINE - 4/6/2010 Peerless Remains Bullish....
11000 on the DJI is the logical place for sellers to concentrate their sell orders,
if they want to take profits or get out even. But, we have no signs that there will
be more than a very shallpw decline, if there is a retreat. In two days, we will have
seen a 13 month rally from the March 9th, 2009 bottom. Bull markets that last 12 moonths
this long are much more likely (2:1) to last at least 3 additonal months than suffer
an 8% or more decline. Breadth remains very bullish. Both Opening and Closing
Power are rising for the biggest ETFs. Peerless remains on a Buy. There is no indication
that interest rates will be raised. Interest sensitive stocks are among the best performing
and highest accumulation groups. Meanwhile, other high accumulation stocks that make new
highs are spectacularly strong and there are a lot of such stocks. Below is a composite of
more than 200 of them. "Enjoy the ride". I have to say.
Index of High Accumulation New Highs
HOTLINE - 4/5/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy. Speculative fervor continues to build.
We have no reason to sell. This is one of those times when we want to let our
profits run. Peerless relies on automatic signals, derived mostly from
breadth indicators and Tiger's Accumulation Index. The public is pushing up openings
now. Closings are neutral, not bearish. Both Openings and Closing Powers are
rising. This shows the market is in verticle ascent. I would, for now disregard other
normally useful tools, like the MACD, CCI and RSI, whose non-confirmations of
new highs are sometimes very premature in vertical ascent markets.
The biggest mistake the Peerless automatic signals have made since 1981 was showing
premature Sell S8 and S12 Sell signals in first quarter of 1999. In practice, this was easily
overriden by our Hotline because I allowed for the special strength of the market at all-time
highs and we could see all the stocks that showed powerful Accumulation on new highs.
I mention this for three reasons.
First, always be careful about standing in front of a herd of bulls. Expect execess.
The QQQQ's Closing Power was wrong for 3 months in early 2000. It was a lot easier
to ride some speculative "bubble" stocks than resist the trend by going short, or
even sitting ont he sidelines.
Second, always be open to new ideas. We have unprecedented collusion now between
an inexperienced, semi-figurehead President, the Federal Reserve and the biggest Wall Street
banks. If they want the market to go up, accept that it probably will.
Why the stock market keeps going up and up?
The Secret Deal Obama, The Fed and Wall Street Seem To Have Reached.
I still remember reading in high school Emerson's essay "Self Reliance how a
is the hobgoblin of little minds". (A radical idea for a public high school?). So, regarding the
need to keep an open mind, and not be a victim of a foolish consistency, I keep checking
the worst of the Peerless signals. It amounted to standing in front of a herd of bulls.
Today, I discovered something new about this period from February to May 1999. This
period every four years, in the year before a Presidential Election year have always been
either neutral or strong since 1927. As it turns out, cancelling Sell S9s in 1935, 1959, 1967
and 1999 during these three months impoves our model quite a bit. Recalling Emerson,
a new Peerless will do this. A new "SuperImpose DJIA saved signals" file will be provide
these results. The results gotten trading the DJIA, SPY and QQQQ with this revised
Peerless since 1994 will be posted in a few days. The on-line-book will show you these
details later this week.
Thirdly, TigerSoft's Accumulation Index has never worked better. I say this out of pride
but also because there's a message in this that we should accept or, at least carefully
consider. I take it to be very bullish today that we see a large number of high Accumulation
breakouts. The 11000 barrier on the DJIA may not hold the general market back. There
were more than 25 new highs tonight with recent or current Accumulation bulges over
+.45. See ALL the graphs of these high Accumulation breakouts here.
In recognition of the proven power of Accumulation Index bulges past +.45, to signify
key insider buying, the revised Peerless will henceforth for stocks show a horizontal like
at the +.45 level. You can see this "insider trading threshold: in the sample breakouts
shown just below.
Charts of high Accumulation new highs: PSMT, G, AGL, PXD and VRX
HOTLINE - 4/1/2010 Another Good Day for the Rally. Notice the Rotation
The Nasdaq and low-priced stocks took a day off, as traders noted the breakout by Crude Oil (below)
and bought the best of the oil stocks. Breakouts like this annul red Sell signals based on
Stochastics and appreciate the value of trading mainly in the direction of Peerless. Normally,
we recommend breakouts to be in the strongest stocks. But at some point these are too
far extended and we should consider buying stocks showing Buys based on their
crossing back above the 65-day ma with positive Accumulation. (Gold is moved above
at level, too, today, but shows negative Accumulation. Not surprisingly, the Dollar fell,
though its CLosing Power is still above its uptrend-line and so may still recover. XOM
and CVX look like good long trades, as mentioned yesterday. That will help boost the
DJIA. I looked at lots of stocks tonight and except for PFE in the DJI, I do not see any
ahowing significant danger of a pullback, i.e. head and shoulders patterns, negative
non-confirmations of new highs or breaks of their 65-dma.
CRUDE OIL NEW HIGH - TODAY.
Of course, in this market traders are still bidding up a number of the high accumulation
breakouts: HUSA, CRME (shown below) and JEF, JOF, VRX and ZQX which met our
"explosive super stocks" breakout requirements. The new downloads NHCONF and ACCUMVER
should be a great source for these stocks. Screen for Bullish, BOTHUP, B12, B10 and B20
using ANALYSIS from PEERCOMM.
JOF, JEQ and HUSA
3/31/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy. Speculative Low Priced Stocks Remain Hot
The Opening and Closing Powers are both rising for the QQQQ, SPY, DIA and IWM.
Odds favor a Pull-Back to just below the DJIA's 21-day ma, a decline of about 2% down from here
and then a recovery to new highs. The specualtive strength in the market barely cooled down
today on today's mild sell-off. A number of stocks made confirmed new highs, showing an
IP21 greater than +.25. Here are some of the best of their charts.
What keeps me bullish are a powerful technicals and a powerful political trimverate:
1) We have no new Peerless Sell in this the 12th month of the advance without an 8% decline;
2) Breadth remains very good, despite the last two days and the market is now attracting the public,
judging from the rising A/D Line and surge of interest in thin low-priced stocks.
3) The market is being pushed up by an unbeatable (in the short-run) political-financial trimverate,
the President = Treasury Secretary, the Federal Reserve Chairman and monopoly Wall Street
bankers, like Goldman Sachs.
This triumverate wants the public in the market for different reasons. They believe business
confidence will be eventually be restored if they can get the stock market back above
12000, even 14000. They believe that stock market is less a reflection of corporate earning
expectations than an automatic predictor and precursor/promoter of furure corporate earnings.
They believe rising stock prices will create new business ventures and jobs. But where? In the USA?
They neglect that another crash after a bigger bubble is burst will wipe out many more of the
surviving middle class who are now being enticed into this market's specualtive phase.
How much will this induced and artificial investment boom address the profound need for the
rebuilding of the American infrastructure and create and restrore American manufacturing jobs?
This and the even greater conccentration of wealth and power that will result GUARANTEES
eventually another financial collapse. The powers that be seem to have learned nothing from the
last collapse. Want proof? Watch what happens to financial reform in Congress!
Perhaps, because they know that a new Crash is a real possibility, they will do all in their
power to keep the market rallying. I have written for a year that Obama uses rhetoric to
satisfy his progressive base, all the while giving more and more to boost to Wall Street and
big corporations. His concessions today to the "drill, baby, drill crowd" are more proof of
how determined, pehaps desperately so, he is to keep this rally allive. Oil stocks make up a big
part of the DJIA and SP-500: CVX and XOM.
Back to Technicals
The IWM shows a red Sell from a 14-day Stochastic-K Line. This system (shown by the red signals)
has gained 43.4% for the last year. That should earn it some respect. IWM/s Closing Power has
broken its uptrend. Its OBV, Relative Strength and Accumulation Index have lost their "bullish"
What If The Market Weakens Next Much More?
In that case, we will see a big increase in the number of stocks that form head and shoulders patterns,
that fall below key support levels, break their 65-day ma with negative IP21 (current Accumulation
Index readings) and then have their 65-day ma turn down.
New Bearish Tiger Data Downloads
See When Selling A High Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on Weakness Is A Good Strategy.
This offers TigerSoft's rules to to sell swiftly falling "super" stocks. Beyond this, I will start to place
on our Tiger Data Page screenings of all stocks for bearish conditions each night. A good place
to start with be to create directories of stocks to download each night with all stocks closing
below the 65-day ma with a negative Accumulation Index AND also for a separate Tiger directory
all stocks below a newly falling-65 say ma, as long as their Accumulation Index is below +.25.
3/30/2010 Peerless Remains on A Buy. Speculative Low Priced Stocks Remain Hot
The internal strength indicators are still too strong to predict anything more than
a decline to the 21-day ma. The DJI is eating up the supply of stock at 11000. Both
the Opening and Closing Powers remain in uptrends.
The upward power in the stocks showing the highest Accumulation and highest
momentum is nothing short of amazing now. Momentum like this draws the
public into the market. The result is that Opening Power is now stronger
than CLosing Power. The period 1999-2000 shows that this condition can last
for 3 months. A recognizeable top pattern is also likely to occur, as well as
a Peerless Sell, at the top.
So, instead of telling the market to go down, because we do not like Fed rigged
markets and we think the economy is still in deep trouble, I would suggest working
with the trends of the stongest high AI/200 stocks and trade their Closing Power uptrends
on the long side. The next decline to the 21-day ma will likely be a good trading
Buy, just as it is with all powerfully uptrending stocks showing high Accumulation.
The NASDAQ now shows a very high level of positive Accumulation. Its AI/200
level is 188. Hesitation and more new new highs is what this strength has historically
shown until there is a Peerless sell.
ISSI - Typical Low-Priced Rocket-Stock - ISSI was 40 back in 2000.
Tomorrow will end the first quarter. Followers of our Tahiti system, as orginally
set forth, simply buy the highest AI/200 (the count of the number of days with positive
Accumulation for the last 200 days) stock at the end of the quarter and hold 21-months.
This system which was meant to be used with the DJIA, but could and should be used
with other groups of stocks, like the SP-500 (a much larger universe), the NASDAQ-100,
all medical and all oil stocks. See their charts here. HPQ now shows the highest AI/200
value in the DJI and just made 5 year high, too.
HPQ 53.26 highest AI/200 stock in DJIA
DTE 45.38 highest AI/200 stock in SP-500
CHKP 34.8 highest AI/200 stock in NASDAQ-100
ARTC 29.84 highest AI/200 healthcare stock
MWE 31.61 highest AI/200 oil stock
3/29/2010 Hotline Buy B17/ B10 - Give The DJI More Chance to Reach 11000.
All the reasons that I posted last week for still being bullish still pertain. It is true that
the Closing Power uptrends could be significantly violated on a reversal down
from a stong opening tomorrow. Given the upwards momentum, I doubt if that would
bring a DJI decline of much more than 2.2%, slightly below the rising 21-day ma.
More and more signs show a pattern of higher openings. That suggests overseas and
I am starting to post the data for new yearly highs with an IP21 (current AI) reading
above .25 at some point in the last month. Below are some of the better ones
tonight. Apply the principles of an augmented B24 to these and you should do well.
Either look at the "bullish", "both up" or "unusual volume" flags with these stocks
to find very good candidates to sue the rules in Explosive Super Stocks.
WHEN TO SELL HOT STOCKS -
When Selling A High Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on Weakness Is A Good Strategy.
Back testing shows that these high Accumulation stocks making new highs
are often superb BUYS for an aggressive investor who is willing also to:
1) Sell on a Peerless Sell,
2) if the stock breaks below its 65-day ma with negative AI readings or
3) when the 65-dma then turns down.
I am asked why sell such a stock in a strong general market. "The rising market's tide
will lift all boats". Sadly, this is not true. Insider can make mistakes. And so will we
if we do not have a "Plan B". The reason is that we just have to have some insurance
against a bigger decline. Moreover, we can usually find a better stock to replace
the one we are selling. This new stock is apt to do better. Alternatively, we can also promise
ourselves when we sell this stock that we will buy it right back if it gets back above
the rising 65-dma with good internals. If you are still resistant to taking a loss quickly,
wait for the stock's 65-dma to turn down to sell. That will save some situations. But
this can also increase the loss on a stock that cannot rally. Here is a link showing
some high Accumulation stocks that last year did decline from their 65-day ma
and did not turn back up from it even though the general market has been strong.
Please read the unpublished Blog I did tonight.
When Selling A High Accumulation "Bubble" Stock on Weakness Is A Good Strategy.
HOTLINE - 3/25/2010 Buy B17/ B10 - Give The Market More Chance to Advance.
The DJI has now risen 12.5 months without an 8% correction. Since 1929, there
were three other big advances that lasted nearly exactly as long as the present advance
and then started a decline of more than 8%. But in 11 cases the DJI continued to move
higher. Based on the behavior of longduration bull markets, I would have to say
these advances take on a life of their own. They are self-perpetuating. We are nearing that
stage. Based on the history of these long-duration advances, if the DJI were to advance
for another month, the odds would be 8:3 that it can rally for, at least, 3 months after that.
Length of Long Rallies in Time
12-13 months 1936 (12.5). 1961 (12.5), 2006 (12.5)
13-13.5 month 1973 (13.5)
14-14.5 months 1943 (14.5)
15-15.5 months 1994 (15.5)
16-19.5 months 1946 (17.5), 1959 (19.5) 1984 (17). 1992 (17)
20-24 months 1955 (24). 1989 (21.5)
over 24 months 1965 (30.5). 1997 (30)
The only bearish condition we can identify presently are the break in the steep Closing
Power uptrends of the SPY, QQQQ and DIA and the fact that the DJI is back to the point of
breakdown, 10850-11000 from September 2008. That may bring a retreat to the rising
21-day ma. But the momentum is clearly a factor. Until we get one or more of the following
conditions, a major Peerless Sell signal, it is not consistent with market history to call a top here.
Even then, a decline of about 10% would be typical in these cases. The bearish conditions
to for are:
1) a completed head and shoulders top,
2) a false breakout from above horizontal resistance,
3) a well-tested price-uptrend break or the V-Indicator is negative with the DJI at least 2%
over the 21-day ma.
Typcially there are much bigger non-confirmations of a new price high by the A/D line,
the P-Indicator and Accumulation Index than we are presently seeing. The P-Indicator
and the Accumulation Index typically drop to levels less than 60% of their previous highs
when making new unconfirmed highs.
1. Retail Apparrel Strength.
For some reason, new health insurance rules or maybe fashion changes, a number
of retail clothing stores are very much in favor and making new highs. The stronger
Dollar is helping these companies buy more cheaply overseas. Higher end sales are
clearly picking up as the sotck market rises.
The stocks I have put in this list are: AEO, ANN, BWS, BEBE, CHS, CWTR, FDO,
FINL,GIII, GES, GPS. JAS, JWN, LTD, SHLD, SHOO, TGT, TLB, URBN, WEL, WTSLA and ZQK.
2. JOF (Japanese OTC stocks look good)
3. Peerless has worked very well with Indian ETFs since 1998, year after year. The world
markets seem totally integrated now. How that will help American workers looking for
industrial jobs is not clear.
Women's Apparel Stores - New Highs
| 2. Japanese OTC Stocks Strong
While the Japanese Yen has been flat against the Dollar for six months, smaller
Japanese stocks may be starting their own leg up. When one recalls the size of
the 1980s Japanese bull market, JOF becomes an attractive specualtion. Their
strength reflects the same investing emphasis on secondary stocks that exists
in the US.
3. PEERLESS and Indian ETFS: IIF and IFN: 1998-2010
Consistently Big Yearly Gains
Yearly Gains on Indian ETFs, IIF and IFN
Made by Superimposing Peerless-DJIA Signals on Their Charts
3/25/2010 Buy B17/ B10 - Give The Market More Chance to Advance.
There was a late market sell-off today. Only the DJI held a small gain.
The DJIA could not keep advancing into the heavy overhead supply of stock at 10800-11000
from when Paulson appeared that Sunday night in September 2008 and gave Congress
an ultimatum to give Wall Street $800 billion or else the market and the US economy would
drop into oblivion. A lot of people wish they had sold that Monday morning. This 10800-11000
is clearly important resistance. But just reaching it does not mean the market will go
into a decline. In fact, it is normal for a market moving higher into overhead resistance
to eat up chucks of that overhead supply of stock, rest and again move higher. We need to
see more than a failure to hold the highs to become bearish.
True - there were 459 more down than up, however. This is the second Thursday in two
weeks when breadth fell behind the DJIA. Given the momentum of the 12 1/2 month bull market
that has not seen even a full 8% decline, we have to remain bullish. Note, we have
no Peerless Sell signal. If we look at all the year-long advances since 1928, there are only
two or three cases when the DJI dropped more than 8% without a Peerless Sell. Usually,
tops occur only after the A/D Line clearly stops confirming DJI highs.
True also - the P-Indicator is not confirming the recent highs by making a new high.
This often brings a small retreat, back to the 21-day ma, but usually not more. It usually
takes a bigger non-confirmation to bring decline. I will charts of all the cases of year-long
rallies since 1028 at this location, later tomorrow or this weekend.
That a retreat is becoming more likely can be judged from the failure of the CLosing Power
Percent, which factors in volume, to make new highs on this year's rally compared to last year.
Clear breaks in the uptrend are usually bearish. But both the Opening and CLosing
Powers are above their rising 21-day ma. This "BOTH-UP" condition is associated
with vertical ascents. That should cause us to give the market more time to advance.
Other bullish factors: the B10 shows that support at 10800 should hold up in the
short-run. Since 1966, the DJI has risen 72.5 of the time from the close on March 25th to
21 trading days later. The Public is not as Bullish as might be expected at a top. Usually
we spot a top by a long series of higher openings. Lastly, we can safely bet the FED is doing
everything it can to hold the market up until April 15th.
3/24/2010 Buy B17/ B10 - A/D Lines and CLosing Powers Are still rising.
High Accumulation Stocks still are behaving well. A San Diego medical equipment - VOLC -
company just broke out to a new all-time high today.
Yesterday's Buy B10 is less important as a signal in itself, than it is to underscore that
the market is still very strong. The breakout the Buy B10 reports is not from a pattern
showing three tests of a resistance line relatively equally spaced over the last 3 months.
That is what we want ideally to see in the price pattern for a Buy B10. The internals do
meet the requirements for a Buy B10. The internals do not show the exceptionally
high IP21 (above +.30) and OPct (above +.50) readings that are associated with the most
powerful B10s. Another negative: Buy B10s in a market already well-advanced as this is
are much more apt to gain a modest 3% to 5% more than the typical 10% seen for all Buy B10's.
Another factor to lower our expectations is that March B10s - like our cases
presently - only bring modest 4.3% gains, unlike Buy B10s in January and February.
whose 5 cases average+20% gains. But there is still plenty of upwards momentum,
very fine breadth and one other element. Buy B10s in the second year of a Presidential
cycle are quite bullish. There have been 8 such automatic Buy B10s since 1928. Their
gains average 15.9%. See the new research
I have posted about Buy B10s -
Buy B10 - historical research http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B10.htm
Still No Problem Finding High Accum Stocks Making New Highs
VOLC - All time high breakout today and B12 breakout from short-term flat top.
Yahoo reports corporate insiders are selling mostly. Our indictators suggest their associates
are buying these shares. This is often a prelude to giving more sponsorship and publicity to the
stock. Volcano Corporation 3661 Valley Centre Drive Suite 200 San Diego, CA 92130
http://www.volcanotherapeutics.com Volcano Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and
commercializes a suite of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and functional measurement (FM) products
used in the diagnosis and treatment of vascular and structural heart disease. Its IVUS products consist
of consoles...digital and rotational IVUS catheters, and imaging tools, including virtual histology, IVUS tissue
characterization, and ChromaFlo stent apposition analysis; and FM offerings include consoles and single-use
pressure and flow guide wires used to measure the pressure and flow characteristics of blood enabling
physicians to gauge the plaque?s physiological impact on blood flow and pressure. The company?s products
under development comprise IVUS guided therapy products, such as IVUS guided stents and IVUS
guided coronary and peripheral balloons; forward looking IVUS for minimally invasive diagnostic and
therapeutic applications in the coronary and peripheral vasculature; and optical coherence tomography (OCT)
technology that allows imaging of detailed structures in the vasculature. Its ongoing clinical studies include the
bifurcation lesion analysis and stenting, assessment of dual anti-platelet therapy with drug-eluting stents,
and Volcano OCT image lesion analysis using intravascular optical coherence tomography. In addition,
the company develops and manufactures micro-optical spectrometers and optical channel monitors to
telecommunication companies. Volcano Corporation serves physicians and technicians who perform PCI
procedures in hospitals, and other personnel who make purchasing decisions on behalf of hospitals
through its direct sales force and distributors, as well as through supply and distribution agreements with third
parties. As of December 31, 2009, it had an installed base of approximately 5,000 consoles worldwide
PRST - 4.66 was a $98 stock in 1997
SFLY, RDWR and LZ show that stocks that have exceeded their parallel resistance line
are moving higher. Speculators and Insiders are still optimistically buying very strong
HOTLINE - 3/23/2010 Buy B17.
The DJI's upturn accelerated. Peerless remains on a Buy, The upwards velocity
owed technically to the fact that both the Opening and CLosing Powers are rising.
This means the market opens higher and closes still higher. I take this to mean that
both the Public and Professionals are buying. That the Closing Powers made new highs
today means we should work with newer, less steep uptrends for them.
Peerless reinforced the bulls with an automatic BUY B10. The main significance
of this in our case is that it posits 10750-10800 as new support. Normally, we
should see the flat and well-tested resistance that the DJI has gone through.
A flat, thrice or more tested resistance line is not so clear here. The result may
be that the usual immediate vertical ascent that follows a Buy B10 may not occur
here. In addition, 11,000 is a natural round-number resistance level.
Buy B10 - historical research http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B10.htm
The rally past 10800 will drive the bears "nuts". The A/D Line has confirmed the
move. That is very important. Most tops occur only after the A/D Line fails to confirm
a new DJI high. So, we should see the DJI moving higher and chewing up the
overhead supply of stock with each rally.
Meanwhile the number of new highs rose sharply today. Speculative, tech,
restaurant, military and interest-rate stocks are all doing well. Concentrating
on the highest accumulation stocks - horizontally and vertically - should
continue to pay off quite well.
=========== RUSSELL-2000 ===================
IWM: Both Opening and CLosing Power are rising (above their 21(dma) The Closing Power
uptrend in still rising.
3/23/2010 Buy B17, Stocks continued to soar. It's helpful to look at the stocks
up the most today that made new highs. It shows the technical conditions that release
and propel a stock. (Do this with Tiger using the older Tiger Charting programs +
Ranking Results + User Set Ranking + 1 + 1. ) Here are the top 3 gainers above 3.
For earler HOTLINES, click on links at top of page..