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                            TigerSoft Freedom News Service   6/4/2008     www.tigersoft.com   
                                                        Updated 6/5/2008 - Foreclosures Rate hits record high

       Far from Over, The Credit Crunch Is Worsening.  

Use TigerSoft Indicators and Signals
                                      To Sell Short The Weakest Banks

                                Huge Insider Selling by Washington Mutual's CEO,
                                                Killinger (as Rhymes with Dillinger),
                                Was How We First Spotted This as A Short Sale.

                              Also Use Our "OP21" and "Sell S6s" for Shorting

                                                       by William Schmidt, Ph.D. (Columbia University)
                                                       (C) 2008 All rights reserved.  Reproducing any part of this page without
                                                                        giving full acknowledgement is a copyright infringement.

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                                                             The Credit Crunch Is Worsening.
                                          Try Borrowing Some Money from A Bank!

                                wpe133.jpg (41396 bytes)
                                (Source: http://caglepost.com/cartoon/John+Trever/49084/Credit+Crunch.html )

                                       There are 11 million American homes now on the market for sale.  Even if 
                       no other homes go on the market for the next year, it would take nearly that long to eat
                       up that supply.   Housing prices are soft.  Another 10% decline will cause a whole new
                       wave of foreclosures and write-downs by banks of their loans.  With home prices
                       down and no way to pay a balooned mortgages, it is cheaper for many to just walk
                       away from their home and let the bank suffer the losses.   8.5 million homeowners had
                       negative or no equity in their homes at the end of March, representing more than
                       16 percent of all homeowners with mortgages

                                      "Nearly 1 percent, or roughly 447,723 loans, fell into foreclosure during the
                       January-to-March period
, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday in its
                       quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market. This  exceeded the previous high of 0.83 percent
                       over the last three months in 2007.  Homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments..
                       The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent -- or 2.87 million loans -- compared
                       with 5.82 percent for the previous three months. Payments are considered delinquent
                       if they are 30 or more days past due. These rates are the highest on record going back to 1979.
                       (Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080605/home_foreclosures.html )

                                      This wave will surely make some big banks insolvent unless they can
                       miraculously raise billions of investment capital. The Fed has signaled that it will not
                       be lowering rates anymore.  But it may soon have to get its checkbook out.  More big
                       bank failures are likely otherwise.  The credit derivatives have cluded the issue terribly. 
                       How close a bank is to insolvency cannot be easily determned because of these complex
                       derivative instruments.  But the way financial stocks are declining surely tells us that big
                       money wants out more than in.     
                              Wealth Distribution Is  Dangerously Highly Concentrated

                                       Wealth has become as highly concentrated in the US as it was right before
                      the Crash of 1929.  Wealth inequality was a major factor in the coming of the Depression.
                      See - http://www.gusmorino.com/pag3/greatdepression/

                      In 1983, the bottom 40% of the population owed less than 1% of the US. The wealthiest 1% owned 34.3%.
                      (Source: http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so11/stratification/income&wealth.htm )
                      This year the NY Times estimates the top 1% own 90% of the wealth in America.
                      (See - http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9503EFD8153EE033A25753C3A9679C946697D6CF )        
                     If the rich don't share more of what they have, a Depression is likely. If working people
                      have no money and there is no credit, they can't buy things.  It's about that simple.   The US Government
                      is so deeply in debt, its ability to stimulate the economy is much more limited.  The Democrats
                      have grown very fond of attacking Bush and the Republicans for imbalancing the budget.
                      This will put them in a straitjacket fiscally if they should inherit a steep recession in 2009.

                      Personal bankruptcies are up 40% from a year ago nationwide. Congressional Democrats are
                      seeking an expansion of the authority of bankruptcy judges to modify loan terms on a mortgage
                      for a principal residence.  Republicans say this would cause banks to stop making mortgage loans.  
                       (See - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/03/AR2008010303617.html   )           
wpeF6.jpg (9579 bytes)            Stripping Houses after Foreclosure

    People blame the banks for the balloon loans, not themselves.  Their anger at having to give up their homes, turns to stripping the house, sometimes beyond repair
They takes "everything including the kitchen sink." They smash walls to rip out the wiring and copper pipes to sell them for scrap in back alleys. They dig up the palm trees.  Many bankers are paying occupants thoufands of dollars to leave without stripping the houses.  In some places, holes are punched int he wall as retaliation and paint or motor oil is dumped on the floor.  Dog poop is also a favorite of the angry ex-homeowners.  Look in the newspaper or Craig's List for used double0wall ovens, dishwashers and wall-microwave ovens.
See -   http://outsideyourmarket.com/2008/04/09/buyers-revenge-trash-the-house-after-foreclosure/

One guy even put pigs in the house when he was foreclosed upon.   The banks have to prove who did
the vandalism.  This not not easy if the trial goes to jury.   A lot of people think of banks as the enemy.

Actually, I couldn’t be happier about this. Remember, the ones who will ultimately - and yes, it will take a long time - be hurt most by this are the same moth&rF#cke*s who should have never been let anywhere near this house. So when this dummy strips his house, screws the bank, stiffs the developer and trashes the neignborhood it will make the stark reality of the lesson to be learned all that dramatic.

The worst thing that could happen is for this guy to clean the place, slap on a freash coat of paint drop off the keys so the bank can show it the next day. No, these bankers must really FEEL the hassle, and the anger, and the loss that their loose lending stanmdards caused because ultimately that is the only thing that will restore sanity to this market, and with it more affordable housing."
(Source: http://housingdoom.com/2008/03/14/house-in-foreclosure-selling-everything/ )

                                BERNANKE's LATEST WARNINGS

                                       Fed Chairman Bernanke is clearly worried that the Credit Crisis is worsening,
                     On the one hand, he told Congress to do something, anything, to stave off the growing
                     wave of foreclosures.  On the other hand, his own data shows that banks are tightening
                     credit in an unprecedented way.   Though, he has given central banks a cheap supply of money,
                     through dramatic Fed interest rate cuts and a $30 billion subsidizing of JPM's take-over
                     of Bear Stearns, banks are tightening credit, thereby reinforcing the business, housing and
                     automobile turns-downward. . Monday he provided Fed watchers more pertinent data
                     on the worsening credit crisis.

                            1) About 70% of domestic lenders have made it harder for consumers to get home equity lines of credit, while about 50% have tightened terms for those with existing home equity loans in the past six months. In some cases, the amount of the loan has been cut. The tougher standards are a response to falling home prices.

                           2) About 30% of U.S. banks have ratcheted up standards for credit cards, compared with 10% in the previous three months. Banks are reducing credit limits and requiring consumers to have higher credit scores.

                           3) Banks expect to approve fewer student loans this year than they did in 2007. Of the 29 domestic banks that originated student loans under a federal program last fall, many expect decreased business.

                           4) About 55% of banks reported imposing tougher standards on commercial and industrial business loans to large and middle-market firms, up from about 30% in the previous survey.

                           5) Nearly 60% of domestic lenders have set tougher standards for safer prime mortgages, while an even larger slice of banks making riskier loans has tightened up.

                        More details:


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                               TigerSoft specializes in watching stocks for signs of bullish (blue) Accumulation
                or bearish (red) Distribution. 
As a working definition of  "insider selling", we look for dips
                by the Accumulation below -.25 and steady underperformance by the stock. Washington
                Mutual is a good example of this.   And, sure enough, when you check for insider transactions,
                WAMU's CEO Killinger (as rhymes with Dillinger) heads the list of insider sellers.
|                 to say, the shareholders and the SEC treat all this as perfectly legal.   Below is a report of
                 Killinger's REPORTED insider selling.  How many more people has he privately urged to
                 sell?   When you look at a TigerSoft chart of WM (WAMU) you see massive insider selling.
                 Look at the TigerSoft blog of 12/30/2007 about insider selling at WM (then 11.7, now 8.61
                 and C (then 30, now 21.19).  I used WM as an example of a highly vulnerable stock
                 for the Blog I wrote here on 5/14/08Lawsuits are prolifferating against WAMU's
                 executives for concealing the company's problems that they created while quickly selling
                 their shares.
  See http://www.allbusiness.com/legal/legal-services-litigation/5328728-1.html
                 70% of WAMU's loans are in California and Florida.   The Attorney General of the State of
                 New York can accused WAMU of inflating the values of mortgage apraisals to allow them
                 to increase the value of their loans.  Fir more information:

                                                                                                                    Shares      Price     Value

7:45 pm
(Chairman and CEO
140,685   NA
7:07 pm
(Chairman and CEO
50,000 $42.05 $2,102,304
8:22 pm
(Chairman and CEO
50,000 $44.67 $2,233,298
7:00 pm
(Chairman and CEO
50,000 $42.36 $2,118,178
7:35 pm
(Chairman and CEO
51,688 $44.49 $2,299,449
6:47 pm
(Chairman and CEO
50,000 $44.94 $2,247,123


7:25 pm
(Chairman and CEO
50,000 $42.03 $2,101,675
7:28 pm
(Chairman and CEO
86,842 $39.3 $3,412,895

                                                         Try Getting A Loan from WAMU!

                              "As a recent previous employee of Wamu, working as a Banking Loan Consultant,
                        it was almost impossible to get underwriting approval on a re-finance or home purchase.
                        In the rare occasion that underwriting approval was granted, the processing center in
                        Downers Grove, Il, would usually find a way to drop the ball and lose the 30 day loan lock,
                        effectively killing most deals. Their rates were not competitive and it was just a big waste
                        of time trying to help consumers. Most un-professional and mis-managed company I've
                        ever worked for. Worst thing was having to listen to weekly wamu web-casts of Killinger,
                        Rotella, and Sstein making up bigger and bigger lies each week."
                        (Source: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_W/threadview?m=tm&bn=19978&tid=149042&mid=149045&tof=18&rt=2&frt=2&off=1 )

                                                         How Short of Cash is WAMU?

                                 I have said I would move my money elsewhere.  $100,000 of deposits
                           may be insured, but there coud be substantial delays in getting this money back.
                           Here is an unverified comment posted on WM's Yahoo Message Board on 6/5/2008.

                                     "...Now I can't get my $35,000 withdrawal from my damn savings
                          deposit account.
No kidding...Seattle-Metro branch of (WAMU)... has me waiting
                          for 8 business days for money to arrive to back my withdrawal. Called branch this
                          morning and received their "apology for the delay" went on to ask "please call back
                          before visiting the branch to make sure your money has arrived"...GOOD COVER
                          (as in please don't make a scene at our local branch, please, please! Please speak in low,
                          confidential tone when visiting our branch) They failed AGAIN TODAY. U.S. Bancorp
                          and Wells Fargo is a "can do".... A no can do on customer service accounts...Yes,
                          before you ask, I did register the complaint with the State Banking folks and e-mailed
                          the Senate Banking Committee."
                      The Bear Market in Finance Stocks
                      Goes from Bad to Worse.

              Study the TigerSoft Charts of The Weakest Financial
             Stocks below.   In doing so, we suggest the following:

             1) Find the weakest sector and don't be afraid to sell weak
             stocks in that sector short.  In a bear market, that is the
             safest way to proceed, unless you resolve absolutely to
             go to the sidelines until the bear market is over.

             2) Use our TigerSoft Power-Ranker Software to find the
             weakest stocks in the weakest sectors. 

             3) Look at the TigerSoft OP21 Indicator, as well as the
             Tiger Accumulation Index, which we mention in most cases
             on our site.   Note those cases where the OP21 drops below
             -.5.  Sell the stock short on rallies that fizzle, as judged by
             the OP21 dropping back below its moving average.

             4.) Use the TigerSoft automatic Sell signals.  In the charts
             below, I show you the "Sell S6" signals.  They work very well
             in downtrending stocks where the OP21 frequently drops
             below -.5.

             5.) Many of the best short sales are in lower priced stocks,
             under $10.   Being low priced does not make a stock cheap
             or a good buy.

            6.) The news gets worse and worse for these companies.
            Solvency and credibility is everything to a bank.  Once
            the dynamics set in that make things spiral downward,
            it is very hard to stop.  You can get a sense of this
            from the news items below for each stock.

                   These stocks' declines are similar to those we have
            studied in our book on Short Selling techniques.
                                        1 month - Biggest Decliners

                   NEXC           0.63        
             wpe115.jpg (43182 bytes)      
                         Law Suits: 
(1) Brower Piven Encourages Investors Who Have Losses in Excess of $100,000 From Investment in NexCen Brands, Inc. to Inquire About the Lead Plaintiff Position in Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Before the July 28, 2008 Lead Plaintiff Dea.   (2) Law Offices of Brian M. Felgoise, P.C. Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against NexCen Brands, Inc. -- NEXC (3)  Holzer Holzer & Fistel, LLC Has Filed a Shareholder Class Action Against NexCen Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEXC) 
                         Lay Offs and Selling Assets:  UPDATE - NexCen cuts 25 pct of New York workforce, mulls options   [$$] NexCen Cuts Jobs, Explores Asset Sales

                          ABK Ambak 3.00      -45%  
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             wpe12F.jpg (20988 bytes)     
              Rising Municipal Bond Defaults:
                                    ABK IS BEING DELTETED FORM THE S & P 500:   
                                    INDEX FUNDS MUST SELL ALL ABK SHARES

                               MBI   MBIA               6.69      -42%
             wpeF6.jpg (43389 bytes)
Moody's Investors Service said it is likely to cut its ratings
                      on MBIA's bond insurance arm.  S&P Sell recommendation.

              Shunned for Fear of Bankruptcy:  

               Florida Shuns MBIA and Ambac Insurance, Lowering Costs - Housing Tracker
                     Law Suits: http://www.lawcash.com/attorney/4271/mbia-lawsuit.asp
                     Personal Bankruptcies:  New York Times - June 4, 2008


                   LEH Lehman Brothers                  30.61     -42%
              wpe126.jpg (45351 bytes)
              Criminal Fraud:
Lehman Brothers was found to have assisted in fraudulent activities
                     by providing financial backing to an aggressive home equity lender.
                    Mortgage Defaults:  As one of the largest bond guarantors, MBIA insured many of the
                    exotic derivatives that are collapsing under the mortgage mess.
                    Incompetent CEOs:  One NBC guest said CEO Ackman "is a slick salesman who
                    doesn't know much about insurance."
                   FCFC   First City Financial Corp  3.73     
              wpe128.jpg (42136 bytes)
                Losses:   http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=fcfc
                   CORS   Corus Bankshares           5.34       
               wpe129.jpg (47509 bytes) 
                 wpe130.jpg (24231 bytes) 
                      Yahoo Scare/Despair:
                                    ARMAGEDDON, FOLKS !!  AMERICA WILL SINK INTO SECOND
                                    GREAT DEPRESSION !!  I ESTIMATE CORS NEEDS $1B NEW CAPITAL
                                    QUICKLY TO STAY SOLVENT !! MASSIVE DILUTION COMING SOON !!"

                   CCBO                                           4.23         
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                   CNB    Colonial Vankshares        5.34        

                  wpe12B.jpg (41864 bytes)
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Red Mountain plans $10M private stock sale

Colnl BancGrp downgraded by Janney Mntgmy Scott
Briefing.com (Thu, May 29)
UPDATE - Janney cuts Colonial BancGroup on credit issues
at Reuters (Thu, May 29)

                   WM     WasHington Mutual            8.75         
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                         CEO Greed, Insider Sekking and Managerial Ineptitude:
                         Lack of Capital:
Where will it come from?
                         Losses:   The company reported $3 billion of losses
                         uring the past two quarters.

                   IBCP   Independent Bank             5.7           
                  wpe12D.jpg (44181 bytes)
                   GSBC Great Southern Bancorp  11.08      
          wpe12E.jpg (45060 bytes)
             Big Losses from write-downs:
                    $37,750,000 in the quarter just reported, compared
                    to total revenues of $48,514.

                     Finding the weakest group and shorting it is
                 often very profitable, provided you use TigerSoft tools
                 to confirm the trend and time your trades.  The same,
                 by the way, works in reverse.  Look at TigerSoft's
                 studies of the Oil and Coal explosive, super stocks.
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