Tiger Software's
San Diego User Group Meeting
Sign Up for Future Meetings' Notices http://investing.meetup.com/431/
November 1, 2008 Saturday - 12:15 - 3:15 Kaiser Permanente Hospital
Pharmacy Entrance - Left Side Elevator toBasement Classroom across from Cafeteria.
www.tigersoft.com
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Agenda for November 2008 TigerSoft User Group Meeting.
Visit our website - www.tigersoft.com
Lots of Important News
1) The money ($700,000,000,000) is "still not being put to work." The banks have been given billions without any guarantee that they will start loaning the money. This is bearish.
2. Bush has just said "NO" to a new stimulus package, even though he has just asked each person in the US to contribute $2300 to the banks. This is bearish.
3) The consumer is tapped out. Wealth has now reached levels of concentration not seen since 1928. I remember
doing a lot of reading where Keynes talked about under-consumption and the need for public works to put people
back to work if the jobs were not forthcoming privately. Without such a program, the outlook for the economy
will not get much brighter. And it may worsen overseas. And that will hurt the US. We are all in this together.
4) All sectors of the stock market are now down steeply for the last month. There are no pockets of strength. There is no leadership.
5) All countries' stock markets are down badly. The SP-500 is holding up relatively well, being down only 37% for the last year. All but a handful of foreign ETFs are down much more.
6) The Dollar is strong. How will that benefit the market? Stocks that import are being benefited. Example: Walmart. Exporters will be hurt a lot. Tech stocks do a lot of exporting. Expect the QQQQ and NASDAQ to be weak.
We now have DEFLATION, not inflation to worry about. Deflation is a symptom of a coming DEPRESSION.
New economic policies are needed. Trickle-down doesn't work. That money is now being hidden under a mattress
and in T-Bills, just as it was in the 1930s. Get out Keynes. There is no guarantee that private investments will be
forthcoming until there is ample government spending on public works.
6) The job market is very bad and getting worse.
7) Housing prices continue to decline. A moratorium on foreclosures would help. It would reduce the inventory
of houses for sale.
8) The SEC still refuses to ban naked short sales or stop short sales on down or zero-down ticks. Wall Street's
trading interests are antithetical to Main Street's. Obama defends Cox (the SEC Chairman) from McCain, who
said he would fire him.
BUT THERE IS HOPE, DESPITE ALL THIS!
1.) Presidential Election Years most often bring a September decline and a rally from an October bottom.
We will want to see how reliable is such a pattern. You have to go back to 1920 to find a Presidential Election
Year when there was not a tradeable bounce from an October low. In 1920 radicals were being rounded up
and deported by the Attorney Genera. In return, his house and Wall Street were bombed. We are far from 1920!
2) Peerless shows the market is now far below the normal lower bands. If a rally can take place, and get us
back within the normal bands, the bullish seasonality will start to bring in some of the cash and hot money now
resting on the sidelines. The Dangers of Buying and Holding: Stock Market Timing Matters
3) We have a good market of stocks to study now. It's like when the tide is out at La Jolla Cove.
That's when you can see the rocks. The best stocks stand out very clearly now.
Best Performing Stocks of 2007. What We Can Learn from Their Take-Offs
Use and Profit from TigerSoft's Invention - The TigerSoft Accumulation Index
36%/yr. to 55%/yr. Explosive Super Stocks: 1990-2008
SHORT SELLING SECRETS
You can always hedge long positions by going short the weakest of stocks or the index ETFs on
their TigerSoft Sells. Here are some links to what we have learned works well in picking and trading
ahort sales.
| 4/13/2008 TigerSoft Studies of Insider Trading.
11/9/2007 New TigerSoft Short Selling Tools and Techniques
11/6/2007 Short Selling Techniques That Will Make You Money
12/28/2007 Rampant Insider Selling...at Washington Mutual (WAMU)
1/4/2008 Insider Selling Selling at Bear Stearns
TECHNICALS
Use Tiger's Closing Power. Openings are often very false in a bear market. The
closings are "for real". I have
done a lot of testing of this tool. We use Closing Power along with our Accumulation
Index, OBV and
Relative Strength. Look for non-confirmations by it of new price lows to suggest a bottom.
Watch for its
changing direction after a big run where Opening Power has also been falling.
The outlook for 2009 is very problematic with banks not lending.But people are very tired
of Bush. An Obama Administration will not use FEAR so quickly as the Bush Administration
has. So, there should be a relief rally
as Bush leaves the scene.
OK
- WHAT ORDERS DO WE WANT TO PUT IN.
Given all these considerations, what Individual Stocks should we Buy or Sell Short? We
will look at the stocks
you own using the vantage point of TigerSoft's" automatic Buys and Sells and with an
eye to whether the stocks
show insider buying or selling using out Tiger Accumulation Index. Seasoned Tiger users
always chime in.
The Tiger Power Ranker can be applied to 6,000 stocks. We do this to find special
situations that we may recommend
now for purchase or sale. Keep in mind that the Tiger systems have been extensively
back-tested. For example,
the highest Tiger Accumulated stock in the DJI-30 typically rises 24% per year. Peerless
has averaged since 1965
17%/year simply Buying and Selling the DJI-30 on its automatic major signals. The New
Peerless ($298) is
more effective and has been back-tested to 1942, with close attention given to the DJI
back t 1915.
This will be a very full agenda. I think it will be an especially important meeting for
those new to Tiger,
as well as those who have used TigerSoft and Peerless for years.
We look forward to seeing you. "Tiger Bill"
USING TIGERSOFT IS EASY
NOT USING TIGERSOFT IS DANGEROUS
Trading
the automatic Buys and
Sells real-time in a
silver mining stock, SSRI
would
for the last 8 months have gained someone +50% after commissions and slippage.
Even
better gains would have been made trading the trends of TigerSoft's Closing Power.
Example - SSRI
Let's
assume you just wanted to use the automatic Buys and Sells
on
this stock exactly as they occurred, real-time. In doing so, you would
have
been ignoring the warnings from the heavy (red) Distribution
and
Insider Selling. How would you have done?
Silver Standards - was used as running example of TigerSoft Charts.
from
2/25/2008 until 10/20/2008. ( http://www.tigersoft.com/SSRI/index.html
)
All
the trades and automatic Buys and Sells are shown below.
Using
the automatic Buys and Sells, the net gain was $5,049
after
commissions on an initial investment of $10,000.
This was 50.5% in less than 8 months.
Annualized
this is 75%/year.
It
was assumed that $10,000 was initially invested. And we were fully invested
at
all times. We closed out any short sales and went long on a Buy signal.
On
a Sell we closed out long positions and went short.
And
in the computations, it is assumed that each Buy and Sell costs 1%.
Actually,
the commossions on a $10,000 order were probably less than $10 to
buy
and $10 to sell. The other $80 is allowed to take care of differences
between
bids and asks at the openings and the difference between the
close
and the openings.
Summary
of Trades in SSRI 2/22/2008 - 10/20/2008
Allowing
1% per trade for commission and slippage
.
Buy
33.75 2/25/2008 +10.0% Start with $10,000
Sell
37.12 2/29/2008 +6.0%
$10,900
(10,000 x (1 +.10 -.01)
Buy
34.89 3/11/2008 -10.0%
$11,445
Sell
31.41 3/19/2008 -0.5%
$10,186
Buy
31.58 3/25/2008 -4.1%
$10.033
Sell
30.29 4/8/2008 +0.9%
$9522
Buy
30.02 4/15/2008 +1.7%
$9512
Sell
30.53 4/17/2008 +9.8%
$9578
Buy
27.55 4/23/2008 -5.9%
$10422
Sell
25.92 5/7/2008 -5.0%
$9702
Buy
27.21 5/8/2008 +10.1%
$9120
Sell
29.97 5/19/2008 -5.9%
$9950
Buy
30.74 5/20/2008 -2.6%
$9264
Sell
29.94 5/23/2008 +5.31`
$8930
Buy
28.35 6/11/2008 +5.6%
$9314
Sell
29.95 7/15/2008 +1.5%
$9743
Buy
29.50 7/21/2008 +2.3%
$9791
Sell
28.81 7/22/2008 +2.6%
$9918
Buy
28.05 8/6/2008 -7.5%
$10,077
Sell
26.04 8/8/2008 +48.8%
$9221
Buy
13.33 10/8/2008 -6.9%
$13,629
Sell
12.41 10/9/2008 +20.9%
$12,552
Cover
9.82 10/20/2008
$15,049
More on
trading metals' stocks:
9/4/2008 TigerSoft New Service/Blog -
How To Trade Silver (SLV) and SIlver Stocks
http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/Sept-4-2008/index.html