wpe50.jpg (1913 bytes)     TigerSoft News Service    10/31//2008      www.tigersoft.com    
Measuring Public versus Professional Buying. 

The Six Stages in A Market Cycle.    
         Predicting The QQQQ Using TigerSoft's
                   Opening Power, Closing Power and Tiger's
                   Day Traders' Tool: 1999-2008.

  by William Schmidt, Ph.D.  - Creator of TigerSoft
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                       I believe we can learn a lot from history.  Here are the TigerSoft charts of the QQQQ
          since 1999.
  The focus is on
TigerSoft's Closing Power.   Opening Power is more apt to reflect US public 
          and over-night Asian buying or selling.  This is very often proven wrong. 
Closing Power reflects
          professional buying or selling sentiment.  It is much more often proven correct.  Opening Power
          and Closing Power often move in different directions.  The basic idea is that the public tends to
          react emotionally to news that may already be priced into the market.  It may be reacting
          simply to the fear and greed that extreme price changes create.  It (the public) tends to buy/sell
          at the opening or soon afterwards, having made a decision overnight or early in the day, while
          professionals buy/sell more carefully, later in the day, especially as they accumulate or lay-off
          their larger positions and have the advantage of watching the market all day long.  These are
          tendencies, not idon-clad rules; not only may professionals decide to buy at the opening
          when they see that as advantageous, but non-professionals may finally awake to higher "false"
          openings and put in "limit", rather than pre-opening "market", orders. 

Accumulation Index measures a related concept: insider buying or selling.
           We want to use all our tools together.   Intense accumulation (readings above +.50) adds bullishness
           to a pattern of professional buying and public selling.  Intense distribution (readings below -.25)
           adds bearishness to the pattern of professional selling and public buying.  Similarly, a rising
           TigerSoft Day Traders' Tool adds bullishness to a chart, while its declining trend should suggest
           additional bearishness.

Six Stages in A Complete Cycle.

I theorize there are 6 different stages in a stock's or commodity's rise and fall in a typical price cycle.
          As Elliot Wave theorists have noted, there are cycles within cycles.  So a trader may see all 6 stages in
          a relatively short period of time, from days to 3 months. A longer term investor will see these stages play
          out very often over an entire year.   Here I want to emphasize intermediate-term trends..

                Stage 1 - Professional Accumulation and Public Selling.  This is a bullish
                                         divergence.   It suggests
a bear barket bottom is being formed.  Prices are
                                         beginning   to rise from an important bottom.   The financial news is bl
eak, but this
                                         is the best time to take longer-term positions.
Example: Look below at the second
                                         half of 2002 and the first few months of 2003 in the QQQQ
shown below. 
                                         Opening Power was declining and Closing Power was rising.  This is
                                         a "
bullish divergence".   The public is bearish and professionals are
                                         much more bullish. 
                                                          --------------------- QQQQ 2002-2003 -----------------
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                                    Stage 2 - Prices Advance as Professionals buy aggressively..
                                  The public turns from bearish to more neutral on balance.
                                   Opening Power does not rise as steeply as Closing Power. 
Example: April to July in 2003, just below.  This was a time
                                   when aggressive buying was amply rewarded.  (See also
                                   QQQQ, August to December 2006 in charts below.)

                                                  ----------- QQQQ 2003 ------------
wpe128.jpg (57714 bytes)                                   .
Stage 3 - Prices rise very quickly as Both Public and Professionals
                          Are Buying Aggressively.
Closing Power is still rising. though it
                          may start to turn flat after an extended advance.  Opening power is
                          rising steeply.   Shorts are being run in.  Prices open higher day
                          after day and close strongly.   This is the most exciting phase in a
                          bull market. This is the stage when prices rises most steeply.
Examples: In chart above, see the QQQQ: July 2003-November 2003
                          and below October 2004-December 2004..

                                     ------------------- QQQQ 2004-2005 -------------------

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Stage 4 - Professionals Distribute to Public. Prices reach a peak and
                         Then come under pressure despite public's buying aggressively at the
                         opening.    Professionals are in control.  The price decline can be quite
                         steep.   It is usually orderly.
 Opening Power is still rising, showing that the Public
                         thinks all dips are buying  opportunities.  The earlier advance and good news
                         have made them bullish even as  prices decline.  Meanwhile professionals are
                         selling (distributing) and Closing Power is falling.
   A "
bearish divergence" is
                         said to exist: the public is buying while professionals are selling. You can see
                         this bearish divergence in the period January 2005 - April 2005 in the chart
                       above.  Another example:   QQQQ: September 2000-December 2000. (below)
                                 ------------------ QQQQ  2000-2001 ---------------
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                          More examples:   In chart below, you will see the QQQQ: January 2004-June 2004.
                          Note that a stage 4 "bearish divergence" is not necessarily followed by Stage 5
                          Capitulation.  As in 2004, the bearish divergence decline may produce only a six month
                          or year-long
"consolidation, tilted downward" which is eventually followed by Stages 1-4
                          again.  This was the case with the QQQQ from January 2004 to May 2005.  It was also
                          the case in the period November 2007-December 2007.   Both are shown just below.

                               Generally, if the bearish divergence between Opening Power and Closing Power
                          lasts under three months, the resulting decline will either be relatively shallow or
                          relatively quickly over.  To spot a reversal, we must watch Closing Power to see when
                          its downtrend ends and Professionals are ready to buy again.                           
                    ------------------------------------ QQQQ 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------
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                  ------------------------------------ QQQQ 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------

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                     Stage 5 - Prices break down from a top. Professionals Selling is steady and
                     the Public gradually has turned from Bullish to Neutral.  Opening Power breaks its uptrend
                     and turns flat, while Closing Power's decline worsens.  This normally leads to a
                     Stage 6 capitulation phase.
Example: QQQQ: April 2001-August 2001.

                                        ------------------- QQQQ 2001 -------------------
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Stage 6 - Prices fall very quickly. Professionals Selling (Closing Power is declining)
                     is matched by Public Selling (Opening Power is declining.)
  This is the capitulation or
                     panic stage.   The condition of "Both-Down" is exists.  Example: See QQQQ:
                     February 2001-March 2001 below. At the very least, a relief counter-trend recovery follows.

                                            ------------------- QQQQ 2000-2001 -------------------

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                              When you look at the charts below keep in mind the the longer term cycle that played out.
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                                                   Background on The QQQQ

                     The QQQQ (Nasdaq-100) peaked in March 2000 at 120.  By September 2001, it had fallen to 28.
          The attack of 9/11 brought on a selling climax.  Within this 18 months, there was a temporary bottom
          at 75 in May 2000.  (This first leg down was the breaking of the internet bubble.)  The next leg down
          to prices down 50% from 75 to a bottom at 38 in March 2001.  The third leg down took the QQQQ
          to 28 in September 2001.   After a counter-trend rally lasting 3 months, the QQQQ fell steadily to
          a bottom at 20 in October 2002.    All through the long bear market, the public was generally buying
          the Openings until May 2002.   Only as the QQQQ was nearing its bottom did Opening Power start to
          fall.  Professionals, judging from the mostly falling Closing Power, remained bearish until October. At that
          point they recognized the bottom much more quickly than the public.

                         ---------------------   QQQQ since 2004 ---------------------------------------------
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                       This is a simplification of reality, of course.  But sensing where a stock, commodity or index is in the cycle
          will help you understand what is happening and how and why the market reacts differently at various times
          to the same news.     This theory will become another book eventually.  The concepts are needed now, so
          I am publishing them in a limited way now, to Tiger Elite Subscribers. 

  Trading Tactics Applied to The QQQQ Chronlogically.

                       Consider these trading tactics:

           Closing Power Trend-Breaks   Upwards is Bullish    Downwards is Bearish.
           Closing Power Breakouts above earlier peaks that are nearly flat is Bullish.
           Closing Power Breakdowns below earlier peaks that are nearly flat is Bearish.
           When Closing Power has been declining for some time, it is very bearish when Opening Power breaks down.
When Closing Power has been rising for some time, it is very bullish when Opening Power breaks out.

      QQQQ 1999

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        QQQQ 1999-2000 (1)
                     50% advance...

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         QQQQ 1999-2000 (2)

(A) Both Opening and Closing Power are rising.  Can be very bullish.
           (B)  Closing Power breaks out over its flat resistance.  Opening Power rising. Bullish.
           (C)  Closing Power breaks out over its flat resistance.  Opening Power rising. Bullish.
           (D)  Closing Power breaks out over its declining resistance.  Opening Power rising. Bullish.
           (E) After 10 week period when Closing Power was declining and Opening Power was
                  falling, it is bearish when the Opening Power breaks its uptrendline.
          (F)  Closing Power surpasses its downtrendline while Opening Power is flat to rising.
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QQQQ 1999-2000 (3)

Prices Doubled from July 1999 to March 2000,
                        while Tiger Day-Traders' Tool was falling.  This was
                        an early warning of the coming bear market.  When
                        prices top out, they must come down a long ways.

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QQQQ 2000 (1)
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QQQQ 2000 (2)

          Note how in April 2000, both Opening and Closing Power are falling. 
        This is quite bearish.
  This condition is called "BOTH-DOWN".

         (A) Closing Power surpasses its downtrendline while Opening Power is flat to rising.
           (B)  Closing Power breaks its uptrend.  Opening Power is flat. Bearsh.
           (C)  Closing Power breaks down below its flat support.  Thought Opening Power
                   is rising, Closing Power proved correct.  Bearish.  Consider bearish context.
           (D)  Closing Power breaks down.  So does Opening Power. Bearish.
           (E) After 10 week period when Closing Power was declining and Opening Power was
                  falling, it is bearish when the Opening Power breaks its uptrendline.
          (F)  Opening Power upside breakout in context of declining Closing Power is         
                  misleading.   Bearishly Closing Power rules. 

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QQQQ 2000 (3)
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     QQQQ 2000--2001 (1)   
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     QQQQ 2000--2001 (2) 
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     QQQQ 2000--2001 (3) 
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          QQQQ 2001--2002 (1) 
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          QQQQ 2001--2002 (2) 
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          QQQQ 2001--2002 (3) 
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         QQQQ 2002 (1)
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         QQQQ 2002 (2)
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         QQQQ 2002 (3)
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      QQQQ 2002-2003 (1)
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        QQQQ 2002-2003 (2)
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        QQQQ 2002-2003 (3)
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   QQQQ 2003 (1)
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   QQQQ 2003 (2)
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   QQQQ 2003 (3)
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         QQQQ 2003-2004 (1)
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        QQQQ 2003-2004 (2)
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         QQQQ 2003-2004 (3)
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           QQQQ 2004 (1)
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QQQQ 2004 (2)
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QQQQ 2004 (3)
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            QQQQ 2004-2005 (1)
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QQQQ 2004-2005 (2)
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QQQQ 2004-2005 (3)
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         QQQQ 2005 (1)
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QQQQ 2005 (2)
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QQQQ 2005 (3)
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          QQQQ 2005 -2006 (1)
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QQQQ 2005 -2006 (2)                 
                   See the mildly bearish divergence from November 2005 to April 2006.
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QQQQ 2005 -2006 (3)
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          QQQQ 2006 (1)
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QQQQ 2006 (2)      Bearish Divergence is seem from April 2006 to Augusat 2006.
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QQQQ 2006 (3)
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         QQQQ 2006-2007 (1)
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QQQQ 2006-2007 (2)
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QQQQ 2006-2007 (3)
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QQQQ 2007 (1)
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QQQQ 2007 (2)
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QQQQ 2007 (3)
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     QQQQ 2007 -2008(1)
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QQQQ 2007 -2008(2)

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QQQQ 2007 -2008(3)

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                                                                    QQQQ - 2008
QQQQ 2008 (1)
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QQQQ 2008 (2)
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QQQQ 2008 (3)
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