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                            TigerSoft News Service   4/3/2008     www.tigersoft.com       

                    AT THE UPPER and LOWER BANDS

                                             Watch what the Insiders Are Doing,
                              Don't Listen To What They Are Saying,

                                            by William Schmidt, Ph.D. (Columbia University)
                                            (C) 2008 All rights reserved.  Reproducing any part of this page without
                                                            giving full acknowledgement is a copyright infringement.

                      Research on Individual Stocks upon Request:  
                      Composite Seasonality Graph of Any Stock for $125.
                      Example of historical research NEM - Newmont Mining.   Order Here.

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                                             Watch what the Insiders Are Doing,
                            Don't Listen To What They Are Saying   

by William Schmidt, Ph.D

                        For 25 years I have been sharing a simple but effective way to see what insiders are doing
                   with their own money and discount heavily what they say, because it is always self-serving and
                   too often false or misleading.  It's simple.  But you have to have TigerSoft to make use of it.
                   It simply uuses bands which our programs automatically set and the Tiger Accumulation Index,
                   which I invented in 1981.  I mentioned the related TigerSoft S9 Sell concept on 7/9/2007 here in
                   connection with making profitable short sales two weeks before the market made a major top
                   last year. Distrusting CEOs and being wary of insider trading are never-ceasing themes
                  on these pages.

                       Here we take up two basic principles to good trading that TigerSoft originated in 1981..

                                                      NEGATIVE NON-CONFIRMATION (Sell)
                       When the stock reaches the upper band and the Accumulation Index is negative, SELL.
                                                       POSITIVE NON-CONFIRMATION (Buy)
                       When the stock reaches the lower band and the Accumulation Index is positive, BUY.

                       This does not always work.  But it usually does.  The main problem is that we don't
                    always see these blantant non-confirmations, positive and negative.  Our TigerSoft Power-Ranking
                    programs flags these opportunity trades from all stocks automatically.

                       Take a sample stock.  Newmont Mines -  a major gold stock. In May 2005, NEM fell
                    to the lower band at 35 witht he Tiger Accumulation Index very nearly positive.  That was a major
                    BUY.   In Novermber, it hit 50 with the Accumulation Index only slightly positive.   That would
                    have been a reasonable place to sell, but the move past 50 was historic.  So the stock did continue
                    to advance.   But perfection is not needed in the stock market.  Buying it at 35 and selling it at 50,
                    was a 40% gain in .7 months.  Not shabby.

                                                                    BUY AT BOTTOM
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                            Look at the chart below.  You can see the excellent sell given at the top in  April 2006.  NEM
                       hit the upper band and the Accumulation Index was negative.  Reinforcing this, was the bearish head
                       and shoulders top in early 2006.  The stock subsequently fell to 38.

                                              SELL AT TOP                        wpeF3.jpg (71437 bytes)    


                       In August 2007 at 39 NEM  tagged the blue (optimized lower band) with the Accum. Index
                   positive.   That proved to be the bottom.  Certainly one would have been happy taking profits
                   on the second run to the upper band at 52 only 4 months later.  Using Tiger bands give you that
                   delightful option. 
                                                                      BUY AT BOTTOM
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                               See how NEM hit the Tiger uppe rand with the Tiger Accumulation Index negative in
                   January 2008. This was a perfect place to sell or sell short.

                                                                                                            SELL AT TOP   
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        TIGERSOFT Flags Bearish Divergences like Those above as TigerSoft S9s 

                   The stock does not have to reach the full upper band for an automatic TigerSoft S9. 
         However, it is much more bearish when they do. 

                                                     AMGEN - Sept. 2007

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                                                                         COST - COSTCO
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                     High (red) volume reversals from the upper band in a down trend make good short sales.
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                    No signal is perfect.  The first S9 below was premature.  Second or third S9s are that
             much more bearish. 

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