wpe50.jpg (1913 bytes)    TigerSoft News Service    1/20/2010      www.tigersoft.com     


by William Schmidt, Ph.D.   (Columbia University)

wpe4F.jpg (33251 bytes)  

Tiger Software 
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of Any Stock for $125.
Example of historical research NEM - Newmont Mining.   Order Here.



by William Schmidt, Ph.D.       

             There are times when stocks are up-trending, times when they are down-trending
                and times when they are mostly backing and filling, in other words, pausing before they
                make up their minds which way they want to go. The direction of a key moving average (ma)
                helps tell us a stocks' status.  Intermediate-term (2-4 month traders) can use a
                50-day ma for this.  50-day is commonly used by technicicans.  We actually prefer
                a 65-day ma,  So, if the stock is ABOVE its key RISING moving average, the trend
                is up and vice verse, namely, if it is BELOW its FALLING moving avergae,
                the trend is down.  Otherwise, the stock's trend is in doubt. 

                Look at NEM, Newmont, the world's biggest gold mining stock. The stock is clearly
                below its rising 65-day ma.  So, the uptrend is in doubt until it gets back above the
                65-day ma or the 65-day ma turns down.  In practice we also use internal strength indicators
                to determine trend.  With the Tiger Accumulation Index in negative RED territory
                and the BLUE Closing Power in a down-trend, NEM's uptrend is in more doubt. 

                So, what can a trader do in such situations, when the stock is not in a confirmed trend?  
                The answer is learn about Stochastics and how Tiger produces very profitable trading results
                using Stochastics.

                                        NEM - Trading Gain = +136.3% Using 20-day Stochastic PctD.

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                 ACT ON A BREAK IN THE
       To be safer when volatility increases, wait for the trend of the Tiger Closing Power
                 to confirm the red Buy or Sell.   I have circled in violet where these trend breaks
                 occurred in the Blue CLosing Power.  Presently, we have a Red Buy, but
                 the CLosing Power down-trend has not ended.  When it does, we would Buy.
                There are lots of sample charts below to apply this rule to.  Buyin and Selling
                 when the CLosing Power trend changes in the direction of the red Buy should
                 achieve gains regularly and very safely..


NEM2010.BMP (1440054 bytes)

                 Stochastics are statistics.  Applied to the stock market, they
           have come to mean an oscillator developed by George Lane.
           The Lane K-Stochastic indicator is an oscillator that shows where
           the stock is in a specified period of time.  If the stock's range for the last
           20 days is 15 to 20, and the stock is at 19, then the
value is 80.   At 16, the K-Stochastic value here would be 20.                         
                                   %K = 100 \frac{\text{closing price} - \text{price low}}{\text{price high} - \text{price low}}
    A 3-day moving average of the K-Stochastic is commonly used.
   This is called the Pct-D.   It is used to smooth  the K-lines greater
   fluctuations.  Traders use the the K-Line and Pct-D in a number
   of ways:

   1.  A new price low that is not confirmed by the Stochastics Pct-D

   indicator (blue line below) making its own new low simultaneously is bullish. 

   2. Similarly,
a new price high that is not confirmed by the Stochastics
indicator (blue line below) making its own new high is bearish.

   The chart below has green "X"s marked where there are non-confirmations.
   They can be be judged to give reliable Buys and Sells.  A newer version
   of Tiger will soon put these "X"s and Trading Range Buys and Sells
   on the screen automatically.  The magenta Arrows below show a different
   system.  They show the best trading system using the next five rules.  

NEM2.BMP (1092054 bytes)

  The red arrows in the price area above (NEM) are based on a
  20-Day Pct-D dropping back below 80 (SELL) and rising above 20 (BUY).
  Presently, when you pull up a chart with Tiger, it automatically tells you
  which of the following systems is best, giving you the optimum length
  stochastic and telling you which of the next 5 systems is best.

  3.  The Stochastic-K dropping below 20 and turning up is often
  a good buy.  Similarly, the K-Line rising above 80 and turning down is often a
  good sell.

  4.  The Stochastic-K dropping below 20 and moves back above 20
  is often a good buy.  Similarly, the K-Line rising above 80 and dropping
  below 80 is often a good sell.

5. The Stochastic-Pct-D dropping below 20 and turning up is often
  a good buy.  Similarly, the Pct-D rising above 80 and turning down is often a
  good sell.

6. The Stochastic-Pct-D dropping below 20 and surpassing 20 is often
  a good buy.  Similarly, the Pct-D rising above 80 and dropping below 80
is often a good sell.

7. The Stochastic-K-Line surpasses the Pct-D after both decline below
40 is a good buy.  Similarly, the K-Line falling below the Pct-D above 60
is often a good sell.


      They Have Been Very Profitable

              Gold Bullion may be very strong and not be very far off all-time highs, but most Gold and
               Silver stocks are in trading ranges, as defined above.  And the best trading system
               for them now is in almost every case a Stochastic.  This we know because TigerSoft
               automatiucally calculates what the best trading system has been for the last
               year with each stock from among 60 different systems, some trending and some

               The great gains psted are historical.  They show what would have happened if
               one had traded every Buy or Sell, both long and short.  A commission of $40 is
               allowed for each closed out trade.  This also allows for slippage, between the
               signal at the end of the day and the actual trade taken the next day. 

               Will the next 12 months' trades be as profitable.  Probably not.  Market conditions
               will change, of course.  However, the "personalities" of individual stocks and
               the behavior of most of their traders are more likely to remain much the same, for now.
               So, my judgement, barring dramatic international crises, these stocks will remain
               mostly in trading ranges and trade very well with the TigerSoft Optimized Stochastics
               Buys and Sells, especially when the Non-Confirmation Buys and Sells are show.
               We should mention that TigerSoft users presently are shown specifically how to recognize
               when such automatic and optimized signals are apt to fail.    

               The first line of each Gold stock chart below shows the best system's trading
               gains, optimum Stochastics trading system and the current Buy or Sell status of each
               stock.    The Power-Ranker lists these for easier study.

ABX.BMP (1920054 bytes)
AEM.BMP (1920054 bytes)
AGT.BMP (1920054 bytes)
AU.BMP (1920054 bytes)
AUY.BMP (1920054 bytes)
AZK.BMP (1920054 bytes)
BAA.BMP (1920054 bytes)
BVN.BMP (1920054 bytes)
CDE.BMP (1920054 bytes)
CGR.BMP (1920054 bytes)
DROOY.BMP (1920054 bytes)
EGO.BMP (1920054 bytes)
EXK.BMP (1920054 bytes)
FCX.BMP (1920054 bytes)
GDX.BMP (1920054 bytes)
GFI.BMP (1920054 bytes)
GG.BMP (1920054 bytes)
GOLD.BMP (1920054 bytes)
GRS.BMP (1920054 bytes)
GSS.BMP (1920054 bytes)
HL.BMP (1920054 bytes)
HMY.BMP (1920054 bytes)

 JAG.BMP (1920054 bytes)

KGC.BMP (1920054 bytes)
KRY.BMP (1920054 bytes)
MFN.BMP (1920054 bytes)
MGN.BMP (1920054 bytes)
PAAS.BMP (1920054 bytes)
RGLD.BMP (1920054 bytes)
RIC.BMP (1920054 bytes)
MDW.BMP (1920054 bytes)
SSRI.BMP (1920054 bytes)
SLW.BMP (1920054 bytes)





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