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       Tiger Software News Service
             2/26/2008     www.tigersoft.com      Blog 10/7/2007 Trading Food Commodities

Prices of Food Commodities Are Accelerating Upwards.
Hyperbolic Curves in Coomodities Are Dangerous.
        How TigerSoft Users Have Profited from This Trend.
(At bottom)

        It's Obvious To Everyone but Bush and Cheney That
        Global Warming Is Already Causing Drought and Famine. 


                                            by William Schmidt, Ph.D. (Columbia University)
                                            (C) 2008 All rights reserved.  Reproducing any part of this page without
                                                            giving full acknowledgement is a copyright infringement.

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         A long drought has been forecasted this year in Spain.

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               The rising prices for food commodities will be a test of text book economics.  Will sky high prices for  
          corn, wheat, soy beans, coffee and cocoa curb demand and induce more production?  The world's population
          is estimated to 6.8 billion and growing at the rate of 86 million a year. Global warming is causing drought and
          hunger, no matter how much Cheney may argue.  The rise in oil prices makes crop production more expensive.
          Massive irrigation in the Southwest US may become prohibitively expensive. TigerSoft users will profit
          from the steeping uptrend in commodities, especially grains.  But the dark shadows of world hunger and famine
          are all too real.  With good reason, economics was long consider the "dismal science".

             A study by David Pimentel, professor of ecology at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher
          at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition "sets the maximum U.S. population for a sustainable
          economy at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must
         reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds

                                                     Grow Your Own:
              "Organic food seeds, soil, and organic pest deterrents should be a part of every household.
          Seeds that can produce food in the short term such as bean or alfalfa sprouts and wheat grass should
          always be included in food kits. Sprouts can be grown in small amounts of soil and can produce extremely
          healthful food in minimal amounts of time. Seed supplies should contain both vegetables and grains which
          will provide for long term food sources as well. By learning hydroponics gardening skills you can be assured
          of the ability to grow food even if soil is rendered completely useless or dangerous. It would be wise to
          learn to grow your own foods." (Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Agricultural-Disaster-and-Famine&id=913288 )

                                                           Economics - the Dismal Science

wpe5E.jpg (7204 bytes)   Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) viewed the future dismally.  Population
      must inevitably out-strip food and resources. Wars, epidemics and famines are nature's way to check population
      growth. "Malthus suggested that only natural causes (such as accidents and old age), misery (war, pestilence,
      plague, and above all famine)  and vice (which for Malthus included infanticide, murder, contraception and
      homosexuality) could check excessive population-growth."   Later Malthus "raised the possibility of moral restraint
      (that is, marrying late or not at all, coupled with sexual abstinence prior to, and outside of, marriage) as a check
     on the growth of population.  Many have  criticized him, however, for implying that restraint applied only to the
     working and poor classes.)"   He had proposed the gradual abolition of poor laws that gave no incentive to birth-control,
     supporting instead private charity.  (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Malthus )

                     Malthus' views led directly to the Social Darwinism of Herbert Spencer.  Famine is nature's way of weeding
     out the weak, the dull and the sick.  There will always be poverty.  It should be accepted by policy makers. Logically,
     one should not give out of compassion.  It interferes with Nature and one's own self-interest and wealth.

                         Kissinger’s 1974 Plan for Food Control Genocide

On Dec. 10, 1974, the U.S. National Security Council under Henry Kissinger completed a classified
       200-page study, “National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for
       U.S. Security and Overseas Interests.”    The study argued that population growth in the poorer countries was a
       "grave threat to U.S. national security."   The theory and conclusions were accepted as official policy in November
       1975 by President Gerald Ford.    NSSM 200 set out  a covert plan to reduce population growth in those countries
       through birth control, even  war and famine. Brent Scowcroft, who had by then replaced Kissinger as national security
       adviser (the same post Scowcroft was to hold in the Bush administration), was put in charge of implementing the plan.
       CIA Director George Bush was ordered to assist Scowcroft, as were the secretaries of state, treasury, defense, and
                      The countries the US was concerned about were not the Soviet Union or China.  Rather India, Bangladesh,
       Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Turkey, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia
       were pf special concern, because their rising populations would increase their relative political, economic, and
       military strength. . 

                              Famine Is Inevitable

To curb such population expansions, Kissinger advocated policies which encouraged or required
       birth control  Food should be rationed to those countries meeting birth control standards. But birth control
       measures would be insufficient.   “Capital investments for irrigation and infrastructure and the organization
       requirements for continuous improvements in agricultural yields may be beyond the financial and administrative
      capacity of many LDCs (poorer countries). For some of the areas under heaviest population pressure, there is
      little or no prospect for foreign exchange earnings to cover constantly increasingly imports of food... It is questionable
      whether aid donor countries will be prepared to provide the sort of massive food aid called for by the import
     projections on a long-term continuing basis.” Consequently, "large-scale famine of a kind not experienced for
     several decades—a kind the world thought had been permanently banished",  was foreseeable and would again
     be widely seen.  (Source: NSX Study Memorandum - 4/24/1974   http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm )

    wpe5F.jpg (6898 bytes)              Rapid Global Warming    wpe60.jpg (5775 bytes)

"Climate change is happening faster than anyone predicted and its consequences could be dire for the
        survival of civilization in the 21st century because of the chaos it will cause in terms of famine, drought and mass
        migration, according to a leading scientist, James Lovelock, the inventor of the Gaia theory.   Listen.
        Africa will suffer the most. China is already suffering the worst drought in fifty years.

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    People across South Africa descend upon food aid.                                          Six-year-old Evelina Mangiolo in South Africa

                             Causes of Crop Problems

                  Drought and higher oil prices are only partly to blame for crop failures. Heat waves, severe storms
      and flooding are factors.  So, are insect infestations.  Bees are vital for pollination. But they are mysteriously
      disappearing in such alarming numbers that Sixty Minutes did a story on this last Sunday night.  Has their
      long-term exposure to pesticides been too much for them,?  Green Revolution?  The technologies used
      from 1950 to 1984 to produce richer, more insect-resistant rice and wheat crops and use more more scientific
      irrigation and agricultural methods have saved countries like India, Mexico,  Pakistan and Turkey from
      large-scale famine.  But they may have peaked and the populations are still growing.  And they may
      now be leading to the problems that stem from a high reliance upon pesticides and irrigation, namely
      a lowered water-table, salinization and contamination of water sources for drinking.

          TigerSoft's Accumulation Index Made It Easy
   To Spot The Take-Off in Food Commodity Prices

            I screen thousands of stocks with TigerSoft, but sometimes it's the commodities
     that stand out.  The charts of Commodity ETFS have really stood out for their bullishness
     using our standards of very high readings from the Accumulation Index and high relative
     strength results when prices are compared to the general stock market as measured by the DJI.

            Look at the extremely high reading from our Tiger Accumulation Index for ETFs that
     let one buy group of commodity futures: DBA, DBC and also GSG 
    DBA (corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar)  In December, the Tiger Accumulation Index
     rose above +.50, the threshold we use to spot serious "insider buying".
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    DBC (light, sweet crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.)
      Massive insider buying for months and months.  Much higher prices have to be expected.
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   GSG (67% invested in energy, 16% in agriculture, 7% in industrial metals, 7% in livestock
     and 3% in precious metals )  Note tell-tale bulge of "insider buying" in September.
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Corn is up to 540 from 320 since July.  Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave a buy at 380
in October 2007 using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th.    Recent bulge of Accumulation
signals a Buy here. 
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Coffee  is up to 160 from 100 since April.  Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave a buy at 135
in December 2007 using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th. Recent bulge of Accumulation
signals a Buy here, too. 

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Cocoa  is up to 2600 from 1800 since August.  Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave
a buy at 2200 in January using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th. This looks very

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Soybeans   is up to 2600 from 1800 since August.  Our TigerSoft Commodity trading approach gave
a buy at 2200 in January using the rules discussed by our Blog on October 7th.   Automatic Buys
and high Accumulation readings made Soybeans easy to spot for a big advance.
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Wheat has more than doubled in the last year.
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