TRADING RESULTS FOR BULLISH
       and BEARISH SPECIAL SITUATIONS
       Picks from Late July - September 2010

                         11/4/2010
 
wpe1AC.jpg (81737 bytes)          
       (C) 2010  William Schmidt, Ph.D.
                         11/3/2010

      
The picks here made use of Closing Power
           new highs and lows in conjunction with
           confirming highs levels of Accumulation
           for the buys and recent steadily low levels
           for the short sales.   Most were simply
           picked using the Bullish MAXCP stocks as
           Buys and the bearish MINCP stocks for
           short sales.  Positions were closed out
           when the Closing Power violated its trends.
           Steeper trendlines were used after a sustained
           move.  When the Accum Index was very high
           a little more opportunity to advance was
           given.  See the CP trend-break-lines in the
           charts below. 

           It is believed that the best Buys and SHort sales occurred
           soon after the new B7s and S7s, which show extreme CLosing
           Power divergences from price.  
        

      
Trading with the market trend using Peerless helps a lot.  In the period shown below
                there were no Peerless Sells.  Short selling had to be nimble.  Breaks in a Closing
                Power downtrend are shown below as the basis for covering the short sales.
                
                The best buys came soon after a downtrend in Closing Power was broken
                following a Peerless Buy.  By this rule, the best buying opportunities came
                after 7/7/2010  and 9/1/2010.   Work down the list and you will some very nice
                gains in the stocks below just after these dates.  As prices become more
                extended in the general market, the quality of new Buys deteriorates.  Adding
                to positions in the stocks that do the best after a Buy signal usually works
                well, especially if you can buy after a minor retreat and another Closing Power
                new high.


wpe1CB.jpg (93861 bytes)

     
TOTALS for Special Situations from 7/30/2010 to 9/30/2010
              During this time the SP-500 rose from 1101.60 to 1193.55, about 8%.

                                   All 34 Trades. Avg Gain = +10.9%

                                   21 Long Trades. Avg Gain = +12.7%
                                   15 winners' avg. gain = +20.7%
                                      6 losers' avg. loss = - 7.4%

                                   13 Short Sales Avg. Gain = +8.0%
                                      8 winners' avg. gain = +16.5%
                                      6 losers' avg. loss = +5.5%

       
Regarding long trades, it appears from the data in this study that we can significantly
        improve results by not buying the stocks with an AI/200 <140 or an IP21<.22
        unless they are testing their lows. as CA was.


                              1, LONG 8/5/2010 CRME 9.31 +.57      
AI/200=139 (LOW) IP>.36
                                 
Loss = -20.3%   Watch for false breakouts!

                              2. LONG 8/5/2010 TGH 28.13 +.43   AI/200=167 IP=.13 
                                  Loss = -2.4%

                              3. LONG 9/1/2010 N 19.58 58    AI/200=139 (low) ip= .35
                                 Gain +16.8%

                             4. LONG 9/13/2010 ADVS 52.82 .8    AI /200=197 
IP> .16 (low)
                                 Loss = -5.9%

                              5/   LONG 9/24/2010 CHN 32.49 .5  AI/200=153 IP = .20 low
                              Gain +1.9%

                              These 5 lost an average of 2% apiece.


====================================================================================
           IMPORTANT

          The best gainers generally had very high levels of current Accumulation, "IP" or "IP21",
          above +.46.  This is the horizontal line above which our charts indicate "Insider Buying".  level
                                       
                                           A/200      IP21   Gain

                         RDWR        171          .56      +33.4%
                         VMED         162          .51      +20.0%
                         RDWR         171         .56      +33.4%
                         VRNT          189          .50     +33.4%
                         NTCT          182          .47      +19.6%

                         PSMT          189         .45           +5.4%
                         IRS              175         .45           +9.2%
                         EMC            175         .36                           -2.4%
                        TRE              172         .32          +41.4%
                         CVLT          161         .31          +14.7%
                         EZCH          189         .31                           -2.3%

====================================================================================
         
          
It was not a good idea to short a stock that gas recently received a Buy B7.
                                SHORT 9/13/2010 V 65.48 -2.61 97 IP<-.20
                                Loss = -7.4%  
There was an August B7 just before what proved to be
                                a false breakdown.
         
        
One other conclusion from this is that penetrations of the 65-dma after a Buy B7
         or S7s.  Look at the many examples below.  See paricularly VRNT and CHN.
                                   

             Also:  Use success tests of rising 65-day ma when CP downtrend broke.


short 7/30/2010 WDC 26.39 -.58        AI/200= 96
Gain +6.1%
                                                                       
S7s
wpe1A8.jpg (83649 bytes)

short 7/30/2010 GMR 5.59 -.25     AI/200=  94 IP= -.13
Gain +18.2%
no S7s.
wpe1AA.jpg (87983 bytes)

LONG 7/30/2010 PSMT 28 +.66 AI/200=187 IP>.45
Gain +5.4%
There was a timely B7 on subsequent test of rising 65-dma.
PSMT.BMP (1096854 bytes)

LONG 7/30/2010 TRE 5.1 +.09     AI/200=172 IP>.30
Gain +41.4%
There were early June B7s
wpe1AC.jpg (81737 bytes)

LONG 8/2/2010 VMED 22.15 +.62    AI/200=162 IP>.50
Gain +20.0%           No B7s
wpe1AD.jpg (84511 bytes)


LONG 8/4/2010 EMC 20.82 +.35   AI/200=175 ip>.35
Loss = -2.4%
There were numerous B7s in May-June and in August
The August B7s made the CP breakout then on the pullback a very good buy.
wpe1AE.jpg (87254 bytes)

LONG 8/5/2010 CRME 9.31 +.57      
AI/200=139 (LOW) IP>.36
Loss = -20.3%
The false breakout above 9 was very bearish.   Many Pros were trapped by it.
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There were misleading B7s in August on the pullback.
wpe1AF.jpg (84399 bytes)

LONG 8/5/2010 TGH 28.13 +.43   AI/200=167
IP=.13 
Loss = -2.4%
There were no B7s. 
There was a Sell S7 in July.
                                                                                                     S7
wpe1B0.jpg (77649 bytes)

short 8/6/2010 AGYS 6.8 -.19 AI/200=81  IP= -.10 IP21 JUST BROKE BELOW tisi
Gain +36.2%
There were S7s in Jan-Feb.
wpe1B1.jpg (79801 bytes)

short 8/9/2010 KLIC 6.68 -.11 AI/200=122 IP< -.25
Gain +16.6%  Note the timely S7s.
                                                                                                  
  S7       S7
wpe1B2.jpg (83570 bytes)

short 8/11/2010 ALNY 14.06 -.58  AI/200=69  IP<-.30
Gain +12.2%  and later 13.2% gains.  Note broken support at 14.75

ALNY.BMP (1096854 bytes)
short 8/13/2010 ADY 8.13 -.36   AI/200=94 IP<-.30
Gain +15.0%
wpe1B3.jpg (78668 bytes)

LONG 8/20/2010 NTAP 40.53 -.17 AI/200=159 IP =.23
Gain +21.7%
Excellent  Buy B7s on pullbacks in May and August.
NTAP.BMP (1108854 bytes)
c
short 8/20/2010 MHS 34.26 -.07 AI/200=70 IP<-.25
Loss = -0.7%

wpe1B5.jpg (88294 bytes)

LONG 8/20/2010 RDWR 23.13 -.07 AI/200=174   IP> .35
Gain +44.8%
Perfect mid August B7.
wpe1B6.jpg (77705 bytes)

short 8/24/2010 NXY 17.81 -.94       AI/200=65 IP<-.30
Loss = -5.9%
wpe1B7.jpg (79972 bytes)

short 8/25/2010 CFFN 27.14 -1.95   AI/200=76    ip< -.30
Gain +11.4%
wpe1B8.jpg (79626 bytes)

LONG 8/26/2010 CA 18.13 -.02
AI/200=132 (low) ip=.11 (low)
                    This stocks was bought on a test of its lows.
Gain +29%
wpe1B9.jpg (87545 bytes)


LONG 8/27/2010 RDWR 25.27 +1.44    AI/200=171 IP>.55
Gain +33.4%
Perfect B7 in August
wpe1BA.jpg (78690 bytes)

LONG 8/27/2010 CVLT 25.5 +1.34     AI/200=161 IP>.30
Gain +14.7%
CVLT.BMP (1108854 bytes)

SHORT 8/30/2010 JMP 5.76 -.21            AI/200= 66 IP = -.20
Loss = -6.2% 
                                                                                                             S7
wpe1BC.jpg (81543 bytes)


LONG 9/1/2010 N 19.58 58   
AI/200=139 (low) ip= .35
Gain +16.8%                                                      June B7s
wpe1BD.jpg (85737 bytes)

LONG 9/3/2010 VRNT 24.43 .48       AI/200=189 IP= .50
Gain +33.4%                                    Numerous B7s0 June - Aug
wpe1BE.jpg (79472 bytes)

SHORT 9/7/2010 CHBT 10.65 -1.55     AI/200=  91  IP<-.25
Gain +11.9%                                                                                         
   S7s
wpe1BF.jpg (82959 bytes)

SHORT 9/7/2010 CSKI 6.67 -3.015         AI/200=91 IP<-.25
Loss = -13.5%
wpe1C0.jpg (80219 bytes)

SHORT 9/10/2010 COMV 6.2 -.27   AI/200= 80 IP<-.25
Loss = -9.7%
wpe1C1.jpg (80005 bytes)

SHORT 9/13/2010 V 65.48 -2.61 97 IP<-.20
Loss = -7.4%                                     
                       
There was an August B7 just before what proved to be a false breakdown                                     
wpe1C2.jpg (83794 bytes)

LONG 9/13/2010 ADVS 52.82 .8    AI /200=197 
IP> .16 (low)
Loss = -5.9%                                          Perfect May B7s
wpe1C3.jpg (80427 bytes)

LONG 9/15/2010 EZCH 25.78 .87         AI/200=189 IP> .30
Loss = -5.9%                                                               June B7
wpe1C4.jpg (78795 bytes)

SHORT 9/17/2010 CDZI 9.64 -.36    AI/200= 69 IP<-.35
Loss = -6.4%
wpe1C5.jpg (85210 bytes)

LONG 9/20/2010 NTCT 19.56 1.12       AI/200=182 IP> .45
Gain +19.6%                                                  B7
wpe1C6.jpg (80965 bytes)

SHORT 9/24/2010 ALNY 13.27 -.95         AI/200= 97 IP<-.06 
Gain +7.2%
wpe1C7.jpg (78312 bytes)

LONG 9/24/2010 CHN 32.49 .5  AI/200=153
IP = .20 low
Gain +1.9%                                                     Perfect May-July B7s
                                                Stock was certainly a Buy in July!
                                         Look at the Closing Power and Accumulation.
                                         It was mentioned on the Hotline at this time as a Buy.
wpe1C8.jpg (82285 bytes)


LONG 9/30/2010 IRS 14.79 .2 AI/200= 175 IP = .45
Gain +9.2%                                           Perfect June-July B7s
wpe1C9.jpg (86856 bytes)

LONG 9/30/2010 VRNT 29.55 3.76         AI/200=194 IP=.35
Gain +10.3%  See chart above.
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