1984 - 16% DJI Decline Ends and Bull Market Begins Again
        

        In 1984 the Fed first raised the Discount Rate, thereby explaining and reinforcing
        the breakdown in the begiining of the year.   Their intentions to raise rates were
        probably leaked in January.    But in August 1984, as in 1982, word got out that they
       would next be lowering rates.  That, at least, seems the best expkanation for the
       explosive rally that occurred then.

                             Date                                           Discount Rate
                         ---------------                                    ----------------------------------------------------------
                            4/9/1984                                     9.0% Rate hike leads to more of a decline.
                         11/21/1984                                   8.5%   Mkt declines to lower band. 
                         12/24/1984                                   8.0%   Drop in rates in on-going bull market

         Technically, we see how a series of resistance levels were being set up in the
          Summer of 1994, which would have a domino effect in reverse.  When the first resistance
          was taken out, the new buying that occassioed would overcome the second barrier. 
          And the new buying from that would take out the last one, and up prices would go.
          See the chart below.

1984  DJI, VOLUME and TECHNICAL DOMINOSwpe178.jpg (68330 bytes)                                                            
                                           PEERLESS CHART WITH BUY/SELL SIGNALS

         After the Summer rally, the DJI fell into a flat topped trading range.  This was typcial
for a Presidential Election year.  Note, too, that part of the dyamics of a Presidential Election
year is for a November-December rally fired by the winning partisans' enthusiasm.   Here
it was delayed, possibly so that more stock could be accumulated, before the run-up that
could easily have been expected when the 1240 flat topped breakout caused a surge past
the 1290 all-time high peak from January, which would almost certainly bring still higher
prices. .
DATA84.BMP (1440054 bytes)