1951
7/15/51 B17 250.3 1.005
?7/24/51 S9 258.9
1.034 reached upper band in 17
days. P=49.8
9/12/51 B15 275.3 1.025
9/20/51 B18 274.1 1.01
1951 DJIA AND NYSE A/D LINE AND ITS TREND CHANGE BUYS AND SELLS
1951 PEERLESS DJI, REGULAR BUYS, SELLS AND INTERNAL STRENGTH INDICATORS
The
original Peerless system would have given a Buy B15 on 9/27/51 with the DJI at
271.3. Closer inspection of
this signal in all its historical cases since 1928 shows that in this case,
its internals are too suspect to
warrant using it as a sign of upwards momentum for the DJI and
the market. The OBVPct
on 9/2751 was a -.025. OBVPct should be much higher. This indicator
measures aggressive buying.
To keep a rally like this alive the OBVPCt should be at least +.081,
judged from the other B15 cases.
In additon, the B18 on 9/20/1951 is similarly suspect. Not only
does it occur only 21 calender days
after a Sell S4. More time is needed to allow the Sell S4 to play
itself out. In additon, the
OBVPct on 9/20/51 was only .072. Typically, much more aggressive buying
should be seen.
See the histories of B15s and B18s further below..
1951 PEERLESS DJI, EXTREME BEARISH BUYS, SELLS AND INTERNAL STRENGTH INDICATORS
Comments on HISTORY of BUY B15s
By adding the condition that the OBVPCT be at least +.05, we eliminate a
number of mediocre
or unsuccessful B15s.
===========================================================
2/20/1946 192.4 +2.2%
.969 -.106 -27 17 .083 -135 OPCT=-.023
==========
TOO LOW
Declined to 186 on 2/26/1946 and then rallied past first tagging of the upper band,
getting past recent highs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
9/27/51 271.3
. 994 /349 74 .132 12 OPCT= -.025
===========
TOO LOW
------------------------------------------------------------------
3/6/1985 1280.37 +6.5% Rallied to 1354.73 S9 on 10/14/1985
BAD .997 -.09 7 -46 -.062 -1 OPCT= -.111
===========
DJI declined to 1242.05 on 5/1/1983 and then rallied past first tagging of the upper band.
------------------------------------------------------------
2/7/1992 3225.4 +4.0%
BAD .995 .058 36 -25 .017 -6 OPCT=-.057
==========
DJI went sidewise, falling to a low of 3224.96 before rallying to a Sell S9 at the upper
band.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3/1/2004 10678.14 -1.1%
BAD 1.007 .189 270 120 .039 -18 OPCT=-.03
==========
Fell to 9906.91 on 5/17/2004. The B15 should not be used only two weeks after a
Sell S9. The program will add this condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments on HISTORY of BUY B18s
By adding the condition that the OBVPCT be at least +.05, we eliminate a
number of mediocre
or unsuccessful B15s. IP21 should also be positive and above +.03..
===========================================================
4 / 6 / 1945 155.9 Gain = .079
.999 .426 73 .145 52 -.138
=====
--------------------------------------------------------------------
? 10 / 11 / 1945 185.7 .Gain = 073
1.025 .441 138 .237 148 -.001
=====
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3 / 3 / 1967 846.6 Gain =.026
.995 -.025 30 -.012 6 -.066
=====
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2 / 4 / 1972 906.68 Gain -.04
1.001 -.024 82 .026 0 -.104
=====
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3 / 3 / 1976 978.83 Gain - .031
1.006 .092 90 IP21= -.009 1 .196
=====
=====
--------------------------------------------------------------------
5 / 12 / 1978 840.7 Gain = -.002
1.02 .949 182 IP21=-.001 7 .324
=======
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3 / 4 / 1988 2057.86 Gain= -.011
BAD 1.028 .789 193 .136 18 OBVPCT=-.06
===========
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2 / 16 / 1989 2311.43 Gain= .199
1.003 .374 71 .038 16 OBVPCT=-.082
===========
3 / 26 / 1991 2914.85 Gain- .011
1.00 .11 67 IP21=-.034 2 OBVPct=-.023
======== ===========