.              DJI              12601     -227   -1.77%                   NASDAQ     2448        -43   -1.77%                             SP-500          1391        -23   -1.61%

TigerSoft NIGHTLY HOTLINE                                                 5/21/2008                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------    See also:                       Running Daily Comments on A Specific Stock - SSRI    2/22/2008 - Parabolic Food Commodities and TigerSoft    2/21/2008 - Gold and The Best Stock for Predicting A Bear Market.    2/15/2008 - Lessons from Friday's Biggest Gainers and Losers    2/14/2008 - Dirty Gold: Newmont Mining    2/10/2008    Silver Breaches $17.  Third Wave Surge!    2/8/2008     DJI Chart: 1900-2008    2/4/2008     The Limits of Monetary Policy:                 Will The "Stagflation" of The 1970s Reappear?    2/3/2008  The Best Earlier Example of A Rapid Big Drop in The Discount Rate: 1957-1958    What Bernanke Has Learned from Fed Failures under Greenspan and during Great Depression.    Stock Markets in Presidential Election Years: 1940-2008.    1/26/2008 http://tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/Jan-27-2008/index.html     See more Comments on bear market rallies...

               --------------------------------   Peerless Chart of DJI with Signals ---------------------------------------------

                      Finally the Peerless Sell S9/S12 Has Brought A Decline to The Lower Band

                                                                            "Sloppy Buying"
                                               Too Much Money is being poured into Too Few Stocks.
                                               This usually leads to correrction, sooner than later.
                                                But oil and gas stocks are surely entering a wildly re-pricing
                                                phase to reflect huge oil profits and the uncertainties of oil supply.
                                                See - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/5-20-08/index.html
                                                                                                                                                today stock hit 55!

            

                                                           Another Oil Stock - PDO - Pyramid
                                                          This company has only 13 employees.
                    
                                                           
                                                   BANK STOCKS LIKE BAC ARE STILL TROUBLE
                           Finance stocks in which the OBV is making a new 12 mo low ahead of price include:
                  BAC (shown below), CBC, CFC, FMBI, FMER, IBNK, LYG, SRCE, WM and WTFC.
                  Seven more bearishly did make new lows. ASFI is the weakest, with an AI/200 of 35.
                  With all the aid that the Fed has offered banks, this must be as discouraging as it is
                  dangerous and disturbing.  See the Tiger Financial chart.
                                          
                


                                                           DJI Sell vs NASDAQ and QQQQ Buys

                       5/21/2008                 Note To Readers:
                                                Blue means the text is new tonight.

                             The DJI is close to a new major Buy.  The P-Indicator and V-Indicator are still
                         positive   But experience teaches us to wait for the knife to stop falling.  The minor
                         B11 and B8 signals give notice to expect a reversal.    
                                               
                              Rising oil prices and new concerns that the FED may in the future less aggressively
                         battle Recession as it turns to face Inflation, that is coming from the other direction.
                        The DJI closed below the 21-day ma.  Weakness is clear in Financial Stocks.
                         See the chart of BAC (Bank of America above) and the bank stocks making new
                         lows today.   We have noted that breadth is suspect.  The NYSE A/D Line is
                         still uptrending but it does not match the degree to which the QQQQ, the NASDAQ or
                         the DJI have recovered their losses since last July.  And the number of NASDAQ new
                         lows is more than its new highs.  Volume did not rise enough on the rally to eat
                         up enough overhead supply to get the DJI past its falling 200-day ma. and the
                         resistance at 30.  Now we will see if it rises enough to drop the DJI to the lower
                         band.   The still operative S9 and S12 suggest the DJI will fall to the lower band,
                         especially during a Presidential Election year.  

                                  Watch the QQQQ's Closing Power and "Tiger Day-Traders' Tool" for
                         trend-breaks in the uptrend.  These will  be a surer sign that a correction down
                         has started.

                                             
                                                                                     Crude Awakening
                                                                                   How High Can Oil Go? 

                                Bush's visit to Saudi Arabia brought no promise of increased production.
                      Washington's animosity towards Venezuela has not toppled Chavez, as the CIA
                      has tried, but it has made Chavez send its oil to China, not the US.  The price of
                      oil goes up, not as the Democrats say, because of speculation, but because of
                      world demand, made more intense by the growth in developing markets, especially
                      China and India.  I recall oil reached over $50/barrel. in late 1979.  Oil stocks
                      did not top out until the end of 1980.  Prices have generally tripled since 1980.
                      So, in 1980 terms, crude could spike at over $150/b.  In 1972 crude oil was about
                      $3./bar.   The Yom Kipper was in October 1973 brought an OPEC embargo on
                      nations supporting Israel.  That lifted price to $13./b.  The November 1979 Iranian
                      revolution and the Iraq-Iran war dropped production by 10% and crude oil sold for
                     $34 in 1981.  Any complete supply interruption, as Venezuela's or Iran's, would
                     send up prices even more.  The high level of Accumulation shows that insiders
                     and big money are buying.  They do not think a top is near.  A world-wide recession
                     is probably the only thing that will change the up-trend in oil.

                                                                         The Outer Limits.

                                    The Sell S9 and S12 from Peerless sometimes fail for 6 weeks, only to
                     then bring a drop in the market and the DJI.  See mid 1986 and early 1969 for
                     examples.   At most a 3% rally occurs against them.  We have now reached that limit.
                     So, a decline back to the lower band must be expected using Peerless.  That would be in
                     keeping with the typical market's weakness in May and June. 

                                                               "Sloppy" Gains and "Free(sic)-Falls"

                                   There is another factor in worrying me about the stock market.  That is the
                     excessive advances in some stocks.  This occurs because too much money is chasing
                     to few stocks.  The term often heard for this is that the market is getting "sloppy.
                     In the last two weeks, MXC is up 117%, PDO has advanced 104%, ENER +73%,
                     CSIQ + 65%, SOL + 63% and  JRCC +52%, among stocks over $15.  At the same
                     time, some of the boomers have gone bust.  Look at GENC -46%.   See below.

                                   Another source of concern is the continued weakness in many banking
                     and finance stocks.  Bank stocks would not be showing so much continued weakness,
                     after all the steps taken by the Fed to help them, if there was not more trouble ahead, probably
                     another bank stock that will have to be bailed out.  Washington Mutual is the bank that seems most
                     vulnerable to me.  See - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/May-14-2008/index.html       

                                    The rising wedge pattern, though, should not permit much more of an advance.
                      Even if there is a pullback in Crude Oil, which the market should like, the fact remains that
                      we have multiple Sell S9s and an S12.  Rallies after March usually peter out at the upper band
                      or at resistance.  So a decline to the lower band would normally be expected to follow.  

                                  The fundamentals look very much like 1972, 1976 and 1980 when the best way to make
                     money in the market was to own oil stocks.  Oil stocks often rise easily when much of
                     the rest of the market is falling. Today Crude Oil reached $128.  Rising oil prices take money
                     from the rest of the US economy and send much of it to the Middle East.  Severe weakness in
                     Housing and Finance stocks has spread.  It is now visible in Airlines stocks and in many
                     Consumer Stocks.  
                                  
                                               ============== DJIA =================


                                                        

                                                            TIGER INDEX OF FINANCIAL STOCKS

                                                                                                                           
          ----------------------------------------- Tiger Index of Home-Building Stocks ----------------------------------      



                            Seasonally, May and June are not good months.   There is more than a 60% probability
                     of a decline for the next two weeks, if we take the period 1965-2006 and consider the DJI's
                     behavior after a particular date.   Moreover,  Presidential Election years usually show a
                     lot of bouncing up and down between support and resistance between March and September. 
                     I take the 1960 chart as the best historical parallel to the current period.    1961 was
                     surprisingly bullish.  Perhaps, 2009 will be a positive surprise, too.

                                                                     Next Year?

                              There are several conditions that COULD make  a surprisingly good market, once
                     the Presidential Election is over and if the Iraq war is brought to an end.  When we look
                     back at history you see that extremes of fear set up long advances.  The Cuban Missile Crisis
                     in late 1962 launched the bull market of 1963-1965.   This year, so far, we have had a steady
                     diet of bad news, although about things economic and financial rather than international,  
                     Sellers have either panicked or have placed "get-out-even" sell orders just overhead, which
                     the market is gradually eating up.   A large amount of public fear puts stocks in "strong hands".  

                              An end to a war very bullish in 1919, 1945, 1953-4 and 1975.  The end of the Cold
                     War helped launch the huge bull market of the 1990s.  The internet was the "peace dividend"
                     of military spending.  So if the Iraq War is finally ended next year, that will be a big help
                     for the market.

                              The current extraordinary drop in interest rates, as long as it does not bring a collapse in
                     in the Dollar, can be  very bullish for stocks.    1957's steep drop in interest rates
                     set up a 50% rally in the DJI from 1977 to 1959.  Had there been no 9/11, perhaps the
                     2001 Greenspan cut in interest rates would have turned the market powerfully up a year
                     earlier than it did.  Very low rates certainly boosted the stock market after March 2003.   

                       

                                ----------------------------------------------------    NASDAQ ----------------------------------------------------
                                         The B2 tells us that the 65-day ma has been penetrated after a
                                sell-off.   The B1 advises us that the 65-day ma has turned up.  The
                                OBV Line is not confirming the advance.  The NASDAQ sometimes
                                moves in a different direction than the DJI for a three or four month
                                period; so, there is a Peerless NASDAQ program to catch the extra
                               volatility then.  B1 signals work best when the OBV Line is confirming
                               their turn-around and when they take place in the fourth quarter.                                  

                                   --------------------------------   NASDAQ ---------------------------------------------

                                                                                                                                Rising Accumulation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Low Volume                                                                                                            Low Volume Rally.  

                                                          
                                            
               --------------------------------   QQQQ  ---------------------------------------
                                                                                                                          
                                                                          Rising TigerSoft Opening/Closing Power
   
                                                                                              Rising TigerSoft Day Traders' Tool

    

COMMODITIES                               Crude Oil                                                     Very high accumulation.   Another new high.                                                      Any retreat should be shallow.  Closing Power is also quite strong,                                                      Openings are weak.   Very high Accumulation now.                                            Gold - turning up from rising 30-week ma.                             Silver - turning up from rising 30-week ma -                                                               Platinum                                                                                                                                                                                                               ----------------------------------------     Foreign Markets ----------------------------------------                                                                                                 Brazil                                                                                                                                                            China

OIL Stocks Making New Highs - 5/20/08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Weaker Seasonality for May and June                                                                   ====================    Seasonality ============================                                                  After 5/20/2008              1965-2006, the DJI has risen these percentages of the time:                    45% after the next 3 trading days.                      43% after the next 5 trading days.    Avg. change  =        -0.0 %                   58% after the next 10 trading days.    Avg. change  =      -0.6 %                        After 2 weeks                                          50%  after the next  21-trading.           Avg. change    =    0.4%                      50% after the next  42-trading.           Avg. change    =    0.3%                     60% after the next three months        Avg. gain =     0.8%                                                                       Presidential Election Year Stimulation                                              Of course, this time around, we have Helicopter Ben, who wants to prevent a                                           a financial calamity pro-actively, no matter the cost to the US Dollar.  The FED                                           is all but guaranteeing the investment safety of big banks right now.  Next year,                                           when the political responsibilities and liabilities for a recession are likely to be                                           reversed among the two major political parties,  the FED, I predict, will not be                                           nearly so accommodating.  Consider how the FED raised rates so sharply                                           between 1977 and 1979, to the detriment of Jimmy Carter.                                              The Fed may even cut rates some more.  Current strength in the Dollar gives them                                           more room to do that.  Crude Oil itself shows heavy big-money Accumulation, still.                                             Higher oil prices are eventually recessionary. But the bear markets of 1973-4,                                           1977-8 and 1981-2 all waited for the Presidential Election Year to pass.                                                        Trading Ranges are the key to profits in Presidential Election years.                                                       Pres. Election years have lots of rallies and declines between                                                bands of 2.5% to 4% around DJI 21-day ma. and between lows and highs                                                from 2nd qtr on.  (In 2000 there were 7 pivotings at upper and lower band                                                in 2nd qtr of 2000.)                                                       The market (DJI-30) has first qtr declines in 14 of 16 cases since 1944.                                                Buying at lower band is then always profitable. A May bottom is most likely.                                                Another summer peak usually follows.  In 9 of 12 years, it was best to wait                                                for a decline to the lower band to buy in 2nd qtr.                                                                      2nd Half of Presidential Election Year.                                                      Buying at the lower band in a Pres. Year's 2nd half has always                                                 always been profitable since 1944, because partisans always celebrate                                                 their victory at year end and the market likes certainty (knowing who                                                 the next Pres will be).                                                 ------Declines in second half often stopped just before Nov election.---                                                    August 3 cases September 2 cases  October 7 cases  Nov 1 case                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Play The BANDS                                           A 50% retracement of the October to January decline should have lifted the DJI                                 up to  12894. Two rallies have already stopped just short of that. (January and February).                                 If this rally fails, it will be bearish.  That the DJI has not mounted a 50% recovery rally                                will be construed as distinctly bearish, even though it is a Presidential Election year when                                the market usually reaches a bottom in the next few months and rallies for the rest of the                                year.                                There is still an unfilled downside minimum objective of 11250.                                 Buying at the lower band in April has 14 successes and 3 failures.                                There are four cases when there was no decline to the lower band in April:                                      1940, 1948, 1972, 2004.  So a decline to the lower band takes place in                                      17/21 cases since 1916.  That 84% of the time.                                      Successes:                                        4/13/1916,   4/22/1924 ,  4/25/1928,   4/18/1944,    4/28/1960,    4/6/64,                                        4/1/1968,     4/9/1976,    4/7/80,  4/10/84,   4/4/88,    4/8/92, 5/11/96, 4/14/00. ,                                 This approach brought a loss only in 1920, 1932, 1936                                                     ===================================================================================