The decline we are seeing could certainly be the beginning of a
                   1930-1932 like bear market and Depression.  But it is more likely part
                   of the selling climax which will soon end, for a while, the bear market that
                   started in July 2007.   Octobers (and often Novembers) are often
                   bear market killers.  Bottoms are made in these months.  Seasonality
                   turns very bullish in November.   The chart below only is based on data
                   back to 1990.   Ned Davis Research found that $1,000 invested in the
                   S&P 500 index from November 1st to April 30th every year from 1950
                   to 2006 – the ‘winter season' – and  held cash in their account for the
                   remainder of each year the account would be worth $38,700, before taxes.  
                  But if the investor had invested the $1,000 in the S&P 500 index from
                  May 1st  to October 31 st  and held cash in their account for the remainder
                  of each year the account  would be worth $916, a loss! 
                        

                               2.    Beyond this, we see the considerable technical support in the range
                   of 7200-8000 by looking at the three tests of that range in 2002-2003.
                   This is the level that ended the 2001-2003 bear market.
                       

                     3.   It is bullish that the Fed cut interest the discount rate by 1/2% on 10/8,
                   in a move that was matched by and concerted with a number of major
                   countries.     Rate cuts are bullish.  Eventually, they end bear markets. 
                   That has been the DJI's experience since after rate cuts this far into
                   the bear market since World War II.   Look at the my study of this.
                        http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/8-18-2003/index.htm

                 4.     This year, not just Democrats will celebrate the removal finally of the
                     worst President in American history.  There should be tremendous relief.
                    The markets have rallied  from Octobers lows in a Presidential Election
                    Year in 17 of 18 cases where they had been falling. (Black indicates
                    an October low and a subsequent rally.  Red means an October low
                    and a further year-end decline.  Light-Blue shows there was no dip
                    in October to buy into.)

                                 Year        Bottom  DJI    Top        DJI                    End of the Year  
                               ---------     -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              1916 -  10/13 98.90    11/21   110.20
                              1920 -  10/14 85.20    11/3        85. 00                12/20    68.50
                              1924 -  10/15 110.10  11/19  110.23                12/31 120.50
                              1928 -  10/3   237.80  11/28  295.60
                              1932 -  10/10  58.50   11/11  68.00                   12/30     60.30
                              1936 -  10/26 172.30  11/17  184.90                 12/31 179.90
                              1940 -  10/15 131.50   11/7   137.80                 12/31 131.10
                              1944 -  10/26 145.80   12/11  151.60                12/31 151.90
                              1948 -   October was rallying, November declined.
                              1952 -  10/22 263.10   12/2      283.80                 12/31 291.90
                              1956 -   October was rallying, November declined.
                              1960 -  10/25 566.00   11/10     612.                     12/30 615.90 
                              1964 -  10/15 968.40   11/18     612.                     891.70     874.10        
                             1968 -   October was r allying,  Peak on 12/3 and bear market began.
                              1972 -  10/16 921.66   11/24                               1025.91            
                              1976 -  10/14 935.92   12/23      985.62
                              1980 -  10/30 917.75    11/20 1000.17
                              1984 -  10/18 1177.23  11/6 1244.15                12/31     1211.57  
                              1988 -   October was rallying, 
                              1992 -  10/8 3276.03  11/2   3262.12  12/31   3300.38
                              1996 -   October was rallying,  Bull market.
                              2000 -  10/18 9975.82  11/8   10907.06  12/29   10786.85
                              2004 -  10/25 9749.99  11/18 10572.55  12/29   10783.00

                    5.  Evidence of A Selling Climax
                              The DJI's volume was as high as it was at the bottom in January.
                               The number of stocks making new 12 months lows Friday was
                               1254 on the NYSE and 619 on the NASDAQ, compared to 1397
                               and 810, respectively.  The DJI has now fallen 8 straight days.
                               In an existing bear market, for more than a year, this statistic
                               is more apt to be a sign of a selling climax than a steepening of
                               the rate of decline in a much longer bear market.

                   6.  History of the DJI after 8 straight-down days in a year-long bear
                          market.    We have been in a bear market already for a year and
                          three months.  It would perhaps be most useful to look at what
                          happened after 8 straight down days in cases where the DJI had
                          already been in a bear market more than a year and not more
                          than two.  Only in 1931 and 1982 did the DJI go down much
                          more.     In 1974, 1978 and 2001 the fact that the DJI fell 8 straight
                          days meant all the sellers were, in effect, flushed out, because thereafter
                          a bull market ensued.   The danger is we are back in 1931, in terms
                          of dealing with the many levels of destructive de-regulation in
                          banking and finance.

                                       1931 --- 169.70 to 121.70 Down 12% over  2 months..
                                                      One year and 6 months into bear market. 

                                        1974 --- 601.53 to 584.56 and rallied
                                                      One year and 9 months into bear market.

                                        1978 --- 749.32 to 742.52 and rallied.
                                                      One year and 3 months into bear market.

                                       1982 --- 832.48 to 776.92  Down 5% over   2 weeks.
                                                      One year into bear market.   
                  
                                         2001 --- 8285.31 and rallied strongly.
                                                       One year and 8 months into bear market.