TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline.  
                                               Thursday  12/18/2008 

                         The Hotline's Address will change on Friday.  Subscribers should have received notice
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                                                          (C) 2008, William Schmidt, Ph.D.
                                                                     www.tigersoft.com    

                                                     Peerless Signals on DJIA
                           
                        Lines show expected key support and resistance
                         Black Signals are major...



                     

                         Peerless Outlook

                             Peerless Buy B16/B19/B9 - still operative. 

                            See how the Opening Power for the DIA (DJI-30) is falling and the Closing
                     Power is rising.  Insiders, I would say, are still buying on weakness and the public
                     is selling at the opening.  This scissors phenomenon is usually resolved with
                     an upwards move in stock prices.  But the Closing Power uptrend must not be broken
                     or else a drop to the DJI 8000 will happen quickly. 

                           Today's decline is not yet proof that the Santa Claua rally is "dead", but it is
                     loading bullets into the gun that might shoot Santa.  Note the bearish rising wedge
                     pattern in the NYSE chart shown just below.  We use standard price patterns
                     to get a better sense of what will happen next.  I take the continued weakness in
                     Crude Oil and the heavy red distribution in Wheat and Corn (see further below)
                     as further proof that DEFLATION, not Inflation, is the biggest concern now.  Bearish.
                     too, is the failure of the DJI and the other averages today to rise in this normally
                     bullish period. 

                         Fortunately, the Closing Powers still point up for the DIA, QQQQ and SPY.  And
                     the QQQQ is stronger than the DJI.  I also take hope in the charts show ing positibe
                     Accumulation Indices for these key indexes, DIA, SPY and QQQQ,  That tends to
                     make the breakouts over the falling 50-day ma more reliably bullish.  But the steepness
                     of the 50-day ma is definitely bearish.  Breaks above the 50-day ma are more reliable
                     when that ma has flattened and then when it turns up, too.

                           The public (generally speaking, of course) is bearish and hates Wall Street,
                     with good reason, considering their losses, the Madoff rip-off of $50,000,000,000
                     and the revelations of how the banks are mis-using the taxpayers' billions of
                     bailout.   Goldman Sachs, not surprisingly, considering Paulson's connections
                     to the firm, is giving huge year-end bonuses to its people with the tax-payer
                     money.   And banks are not lending more money with the bailouts.  Many are
                     tightening their credit and raising their rates!  
                                Listen:  Goldman Sachs using bailout funds for employee bonuses

                            At the same time, bank stocks were very weak today.  They may not be able
                     to draw on more TARP funds until the Obama Administration comes into office,
                     more than a month away.  Debtors see the way banks have behaved with taxpayer
                     money will, I believe, be more tempted to not honor their own debts to the banks.
                     Housing prices are still dropping and consumers are increasingly defaulting on their
                     credit cards.  This is what happens in a deflationary period.  

                            More backing and filling between 8000 and 9000 would seem unavoidable
                      were we not in this bullish seasonal period.   I would think that  if the DJI's
                      21-day ma (100 points below today close) is NOT broken below, 
                      we will still see a year-end rally to  9400.  Of course,  there may be new scandals
                      and unforeseen consequences from the Madoff Ponzi scheme.  And the Bush
                      Administration may unequivocally announce that it will not bail out the automakers. 
                      News like this would not only stifle hopes for a year-end rally, but force those
                      traders who expected one, to sell.  And that selling might cause the DJI to break
                     below 8000.  At this stage, I do not expect that..

                              The Dollar is weakening with the Fed's placement of interest rates for
                      insider banks at 0.  But US Treasury instruments have been strong until this.
                      I take the Fed's actions as a show of strength and determination to fight
                      Deflation.   And that is the key concern now.

                          "Gold bugs" are now pushing the notion that the Dollar will collapse as the
                      Peso did in Argentina or the German Mark did in the early 1920s.  But, I don't
                                   Gold Bugs' Fear Tactics Now Seem "Self-Serving" And "Strained"
                      see that.  Most commodities are weak and falling.  Deflation is a bigger threat.
                      The Fed has loaned banks $2 trillion with almost no transparency or
                      accountability.   That would normally be very inflationary and weaken the Dollar.
                      But the unemployment keeps rising and oil and housing prices keep falling; and
                      with the banks not doing hardly any lending, money's "velocity" is near zero
                      and all this money is not yet having much inflationary effect.  Could everything
                      suddenly change?  Could inflation become a concern quickly.  Possibly, but
                      most commodities do not look strong, only Gold and Silver, as well as the Swiss
                      Franc and the Japanese Yen.                                             

5-day Hourly DJI   -                       8900 and apex of right shoulder is now resistance.

                 Code -  blue or green  = new to this night's report or considered more important
                              black = from previous night's report  

                                                         TIGERSOFT HOTLINE

            NYSE Chart and Interpretation
           Peerless Outlook and New Buy B9
        Santa Claus Rally.
        Charts: QQQQ vs DJI, DJI, DIA, SPY, Foreign ETFS, China,
                     USO (Oil), Home Building Stocks, Dollar  
        December is Seldom Bearish. 
        US Dollar, Gold and Silver
        Recent Peerless Signals - Buy B19 and B16
        Recovery Rallies: 1957-2008
        Inter-Regnum Market Behavior: 1932-1933
        Additional Topics:
                    1. Expect An Election Rally
                     2. New TigerSoft Blogs
                     3. 33% to 50% Recoveries 
                     4. Which Stocks Are Democrats Likely to Support Most.  
                     5. new Commodities Corn and Wheat and Metals
                     6. Tiger Index of Placement Stocks 
                     7. Master Card and Finance Stocks in the DJI-30 
                     8. Leading Computer Stocks: IBM and HPQ  new
                     9. Fidelity Sector Strength    
                    10. Seasonality and DJI
                    11. New Highs and Lows: NYSE and NASDAQ
            
             Market Timing
                        Discussion of the History of Peerless Stock Market Timing: 1981-2008.
                              Six Reasons for Calling A Bottom at 8000.  10/12/2008
                              History of QQQQ since 1999: TigerSoft's Closing Power and Day Traders' Tool

           Recent TigerSoft Blogs
                            http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/index.htm

                                  QQQQ's RSQ: 1999-2008
                                  Gold Bugs' Fear Tactics Now Seem "Self-Serving" And "Strained"
                                  Bernie Madoff - The Biggest Wall Street Swindler Ever!
                                  Spotting Key Insider Buying and Selling Is Easy with TigerSoft:
                                                 The Cases of GM and EBS in 2008.
                                   Mastering Crude Oil's Roller Coaster Ride: 2006-2008
                                   Compare The Insider Selling Shown on The TigerSoft Charts of Citibank
                                               with Those of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual,
                                               Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Trump, Northern Rock and General Motors.
                                   Bankers Flex Their Control over US Government
                                   Four Phases of A Typical Speculative Stock: Examples of DRYS and TASR.
                                   Wall Street versus Main Street.
                                   A Thief in The Night.
                                   Chipotle's (CMG) Great Food at A Modest Price.
                                   NYU Economist Nouriel Roubini - "Dr. Doom" or Prescient Cassandra?
                                   History of QQQQ since 1999: TigerSoft's Closing Power and Day Traders' Tool
                                   Spot Tops in Stocks Using TigerSoft Is Easy
                                   What and Who Caused Stock Market Crash of 2008?
                                   A Deflationary Spiral?  Another Depression? 
                                                           Not if We Learn The Lessons of Past Depressions

=====================================================================================
                                      
-------------------------------------------------------- NYSE -------------------------------------------------------------
                               A Close by the NYSE below its uptrend will invite a retest of 5100.

                               
                      
                             I take the rise in foreign ETFs and commodities other than oil as a sign that a
                    galloping Deflation can be avoided.  That would go a long way in preventing a Depression
                    like the 1930s.  And if that can be avoided, the stock market has some light ahead
                    of it.

                             Since NYSE Volume for these indexes is below their 21-day ma, it is doubtful if the
                    DJI will be able to move past 9250, where the resistance line I have drawn crosses.
                    Some of the other averages, like the NYSE may be able to do better.  See chart below.
                    The bears have done their worst this year and a shallow retreat is all that I would expect.

                                                       Santa Claus Rally

                    The seasonality is distinctly bullish.  And the odds of a DJI advance from here to the
                    end of the year are well over 75%.  From December 17th to two two weeks later, the
                    DJI rose 88.5% of the time between 1966 and 2007.  The strong record goes back further.  
                    From 1944-1965, the DJI rose in 17 of these time periods and fell in only 4.  Presidential
                    Election years were 4 up and 1 down.
                                
                                                      The Market Must Rally.

                             The alternative is very bleak.  If the bear market starts again in earnest
                       it could mean we may well be back in 1931 in terms of how the market behaves
                       and retirement will be not be possible for millions.
                        See http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11379
                        My view is that we should be able to avoid that, provided we do not make mistakes
                        similar to Hoover's and treat Deflation as not self-correcting.


  ------------------------------------------------   QQQQ/DJI --------------------------------------- 
                This chart shows how well strength in the QQQQ versus the DJI has
predicted market turns this year.   As long as the recent minor uptrend is not violated,
a Santa Claus rally should be expected.  A violation will be bearish.


                                    More Market Comments                
.                       
          Note that the current Buy B9 is a more aggressive Buy signal than most B9s.  It took place
  with the DJI not being at the lower band as was previously required.  This type of B9 in the
  new Peerless software has been inserted because the end of the year tends to be much
  more bullish than the period through October.    I suggested last night that it would be best
  to buy if there is a retreat or pullback.  I would expect support to be good at the 21-day ma
  about 100 points below today's close, at 8500.  But a close below the ma would be bearish
  warn of a decline closer to the 8000 support.

        Technically, the DJI is still below the resistance of its falling 50-day ma.  A move above
   that will not do away with the resistance at 9000 from the upper 7% upper band, which has
   been working recently and the December peak at 9200.  It will be surprising to see 9200
   exceeded.  Volume is too low to eat up much overhead resistance.   More likely, traders will
   sell and go short at 9000 and the continuing bad news will bring another decline back to 8000. 
   For now, we take hope from the fact that the DJI has rallied 88% of the time since 1966 in
   the two weeks after December 17th 

       How well would buying on the close of December 17th and selling on the last trading day
  of the year have worked in markets in a different period?   Time only permits now to look at
  16 more years of back data.  The DJI fell more than 1% in only 2 cases, but rose more than 1%
  in 7 cases.  So, I would say this supports the notion that the last two weeks of December have
  a strong upward bias.  In 3 of the 4 years that were Presidential Election years, the DJI rallied
  more than 1% in this period.  The bear market years of 1917, 1920, 1929, 1930, 1931 and 1932
  showed 5 Sanat Claus rallies of more than 1% by the DJI.
      
            Year                  DJI 17                  December 31         DJI - The Next Year
                                     or last trading
                                     day before that.
           -------------           --------------                  ------------------
          1916                    98.10                          95                        Without rallying past 99, in June 1917
                                                                                                 a bear market took DJI to 66 in Dec 1917.
          1917                    67.10                          74.40                  Rallied to 90 in October 1918
          1918                    83.40                          82.20                  Rallied to 119 in October 1918
          1919                   107.30                        107.20                Bear market took DJI to 67 in Dec 1920.
          1920                     70.30                         72.00                  Bear market took DJI to 64 in August 1921
          1921                      81.00                         80.80                 Rallied to 192 in October 1922
          1922                      98.00                         98.20                 Up to 105 in March and down to 86 in October 1923
          1923                      95.30                         95.50                 Up to 102 in Jabuary and to a low of 89 in May 1924.
          1924                    114.40                        120.50                Rallied to 160 in October 1925.
          1925                    152.80                        156.70                Hit 162 in February and then 135 in March.
          1926                    160.70                        157.20                 Rallied to 200 in October 1928.
          1927                    198.90                        200.70                 Rallied to 300 in November 1928.       
          1928                    270.20                        300.00                 Rallied to 383 in September 1929. 
         1929                    249.60                        248.50                 Rallied to 285 in April 1930 and then fell to 160 in Dec.
          1930                    165.60                        164.60                 Rallied to 192 in Feb. 1931 and then fell to 75 in Dec.
          1931                     73.80                           77.90                 Rallied to 90 in March 1932 and then fell to 35 in July.
          1932                     60.50                           60.30                 Fell to   51 in Feb 1933 and then rose to 197 in July.


         There have been 11 cases of these B9s since 1942, apart from the present case. 
   The average gain was 5.95%.  Usually any paper losses were minimal. The one exzception,
   was 10% (1948 - while Berlin airlift was taking place).  In an on-going bear market, the paper
   losses were quite minimal, but the average gain was only 3.8% in 6 cases.   The present case
   is at the extremes in that the DJI closes is already 1.9% above the 21-day ma.  In addition,
   the OPct is the highest of any case.   So, we must see the DJI get past the falling 50-day
   ma at 8800.  The earlier December peak at 9200 and the declining trendline through the
   highs of October and November will act as resistance. 

11/3/48   182.5 .984    .167    92   .24     118   .212     +18.0%  9/14/49  S9    215.3
  16 more B9s through 12/1/48
  fell to 171 and rallied to 183 and then fell to 162 in June 1949 before rallying.

10/9/1974  631.02 .999  -.511  -27  -.064  -2  -.327      +3.8%  10/18/74  S12  654.08   Bear Market Case.
  This was bottom...DJI rallied past upper band to Sell.  
  The DJI rallied to the 50-day ma and fell back.

12/6/1977  806.91  .971  -.043  163  .044   1  .109      -1.7%  1/7/1978  S10  793.49   Bear Market Case.
  rallied half way to upper band from ma but then completed 
  bearish head and shoulders pattern. 
  The DJI moved past the 50-day ma and then fell back.

11/21/1979 807.42  .994   .009  77  -.056   0   -.121    +7.2%   1/16/1980 S4  865.19      Bear Market Case.
  This was bottom.  DJI rallied past upper band.
  The DJI rallied to the 50-day ma, fell back to the 21-day ma and then ran past the 50-day ma..
.
10/23/1981 837.99  .981   .04   53  .045    0  -.083    -0.6%    4/1/1982  S9  833.24     Bear Market Case
  This was Bottom ... rallied to upper band but no sell. Fell again and then rallied.

11/22/1982 1000    .975   -.365 38  -.006  -3   .055    +5.7%   12/7/1862  S9  1056.94
  This was  Bottom and quick rally to the upper band.

11/13/2000 10517.25 .996  .367  -50  .08  -78  -.034    +1.9%   12/8/2000  S12 10712.91
  DJI fell to 10300 (2% paper loss) a week later and then rallied to the upper band and Sell.      

11/1/2001  9263.9   1.001  .18  83   .102  -94  .046     +9.2%   2/26/2002  S9 10115.26   Bear Market Case
   This was bottom.  Rallied past upper band.
   The DJI rallied to the 50-day ma but fell back from the upper band.

11/13/2002 8398.49  .995  .202  99  .089  -73  .232     +4.5%   1/6/2003  S12 8773.57   Bear Market Case
          6 more B9s to 12/16/2002
   This was bottom.  Rally to upper band. No sell there.Then fell to 8303 on 12/27/2003 
   and rose to upper band. 
   The DJI rallied to the 50-day ma but fell back from the upper band.
 
10/14/2004 9894.45  .978  -.396  114  -.054 -142  -.047  +14.5%     5/5/2006  S9 11577.74
          4 more B9s to 10/26/2002
     DJI fell to 9750 on 10/25 and then rebounded strongly.  

12/12/2008 8629.68  1.019  -.489  10   .089   -1  .241   ????

=============================================================================
   11 earlier cases     Avg Gain =6.0%

CLOSING POWER AND MAJOR MARKET ETFS                  Blue Closing Power on DIA is still rising.  Openings are very weak.                  If the Closing stop being so weak, we couid see a good rally.                       Traders should use trend-breaks to reverse positions.

Blue Closing Power on QQQQ is still rising.

Blue Closing Power on SPY is still rising.  OBV is quite strong.  Volume is low on rally.

Foreign ETFs Index is NOW ABOVE falling 50-day ma                   These have gained 55.9% for the past year.         =================   Tiger Index of Chinese Stocks  ===============================

The Blue Closing Power for USO (Oil ETF)  is still falling.

Tiger Index of Home-Building Stocks                                     Above falling 50-dma but AI only equals 0.

                          December Is Seldom Bearish                        


                                Happily, the odds against the market falling significantly from 12/8 to 12/31 in a
                          Presidential Election year are 18 to 4 if the period 1916 to 2004 is considered repesentative.
                          In Presidential Election years, from 12/8 to 12/31 the DJI rose significantly in 13 years; it fell
                          fell by more than a point in 4 years and in 4 years the change was a point or less.    In the
                          four cases when the DJI declined in this period (shown in red) by more than a point,
                          the next year always produced a bear bear market.
                                             
                                                           12/8              12/31
                                                          ----------          --------
                                               1916    106.50           95.00   WWI approaching,   Decline ended big advance.
                                                                                            The next year brought a bear market.
                                               1920      75.50            72.00  on going bear market. Bear market continued until August 2001
                                               1924     113.30         120.50
                                               1928     271.10         300.00
                                               1932      60.10            60.30  on going bear market.
                                               1936     180.60         179.90   bear market hit in middle of 1937.
                                               1940    130.30          131.30   on going bear market
                                              1944    150.50          151.90
                                               1948     176.30         177.30
                                               1952     283.60         291.90
                                               1956     494.80         499.50
                                               1960     605.10         615.90 on going bear market
                                               1964     870.70         874.10
                                               1968    978.24          943.75  bear market followed.
                                               1972  1033.19        1004.21 bear market followed.
                                               1976     963.26         985.62 bear market followed.
                                               1980     933.70         966.30 bear market followed
                                               1984    1163.21       1211.57
                                               1988    2141.71       2168.57
                                               1992    6381.94       6448.27
                                               1996    6381.94       6448.27
                                               2004   10494,23    10783.08
                                               2008

The Dollar is running up as Banks put their bailout money in US Treasury instruments                          and investors seek a "safe" haven.  The Uptrend in the Dollar will eventually break                          its trendline.  That is normally bearish for the stock market.   Look at the Dollar and                          DJI charts for 2001, 2002 and 2004 to see that realtionship.                           Charts for Dollar and DJI: 2001. 2002. 2003, 2004, 2005. 2006, 2007 and 2008.

          BUY B16

Peerless Buy B16s certainly have the power to reverse a bear market.
B16s have called the bottoms in 8 earlier Bear Markets since 1942.
But the last Buy B16 was two days premature.  The DJI fell 11% more
before recovering.  This shows that the US stock market is weaker than
at any time since the 1942.   But there are lots of reasons for thinking
7500 was the bottom.  The one I like the most is that the long-term DJI
chart has the appearance of an 11 year head and shoulders pattern with
a neckline at 7400-7500.  A move up to 11700 would form a right shoulder
in this pattern.  The next is that 7400 represents a 50% retracement
of what was gained from August 1982 to 2007.  Such retracements are
watched by many technicians.

Cases of DJI declines  20% below its  50-day ma

In the 1929-1942 period, the DJI fell more than 20% below the
50-day ma on 8 occasions.  In 5 cases, buying then would have been profitable.
But in 3 cases, it would have led to losses of between 10% and 25%.
would have proved profitable.  This is important because we
would have recently had three such Buy signals.

10/9/2008 - DJI 8579
10/15/2008  DJI 8577.91
10/24/2008  DJI 8379.95
10/24/2008  DJI 7552.29

10/28/1929  DJI   260.60 ... fell to 200 and rebounded back to 280 7 months later.
Declining 50-day ma reached at 250.
6/24/1930 DJI  211.80 ...DJI rose immediately to 240 and declining 50-day ma.
6/1/1931  DJI  122.80 ... DJI rallied to declining 50-day ma at 145.
9/28/1931   DJI   104.40  ... DJI fell to 90 and then rallied to declining 50-day ma. at 113
12/14/1931   DJI    77.20  ...  DJI fell 3% more and then rallied to 86-89.
4/13/1932  DJI  61.20   ... DJI fell to 43 before rallying to 80
10/18/1937  DJI   125.70 ... DJI rallied to 138, fell to new lows and hit declining 50 dma at 130.
5/21/1940  ... DJI 114.10   DJI rallied to 138 in 5 months.

                      
       Inter-Regnum Market Behavior 1932-1933
                                       
                                                   Obama will not be President for 6 weeks.  Things can get much worse
                                                   in that interim.  General Motors or Ford may fail.  The gap between
                                                   the November Presidential Election in 1932 and the inauguration
                                                   in March 1933. saw the DJI fall nearly 20%.  It was only two weeks
                                                   after FDR came into power, that the stock market rallied.
                                                 
                                                    ------------------------------------- DJI 1932-1933 ----------------------------------------

                     
 

==================================================================================
            Additional Topics.

                     1. Expect An Election Rally
                     2. New TigerSoft Blogs
                     3. 33% to 50% Recoveries 
                     4. Which Stocks Are Democrats Likely to Support Most.  
                     5. Commodities
                     6. Tiger Index of Placement Stocks  
                     7.   Fidelity Sector Strength    
                     8.   Seasonality and DJI
                     9.   New Highs and Lows: NYSE and NASDAQ
                  
 
                      1. Expect An Election  Rally   
                   
                          A New Democratic President Gets A Honey-Moon Period  with Wall Street. 
                    All Those Goldman Sachs Execs Did Not Contribute To Obama for Nothing.
                    Food and Metal and Commodities prices fell 1.5% on Friday.  True lower oil prices
                    help consumers and give a real break to airlines and chemical industries.  But
                    want to see strength in commodities to signify hedge funds' selling has concluded and the
                    world demand is not still weakening.  Continued commodity weakness means a global bear
                    market and a deflationary spiral.  This was the hallmark of the early 1930s.

                        The B19 has been reliable historically.  But without rising volume it will be hard for the
                    DJI to get past 9500 and even harder for it to surpass 10000.  The DJI will need to get past
                    9500 and start repairing the damage done as it fell below 11000, when the Administration
                    brought out full-press scare tactics to get bankers $700 billion.

                    2. New Blogs

                   November 1, 2008     NYU Economist Nouriel Roubini - "Dr. Doom" or Prescient Cassandra?
                                               What Would Warn Us That The US Will Experience A Depression,
                                               Not A Recession?

                   October 30, 2008       Learning How To Spot Tops in Stocks Using TigerSoft Is Easy
                                               And Will Save You Many Thousands in The Next Stock Market Crash.

                   October 28, 2008    The Biggest US Stock Market Declines: 1916-2008

                   3. 33% to 50% Recoveries Are Normal

                                  Watch AA 

                              The financial panic of 2008 seems to have ended.  Alcoa should be watched to see
                    how well deeply oversold blue chips recover.  In May it almost reached 45. It hit 9, down 36 points,
                    75% in 5 months.  Clearly  even a bear market rally represents a great opportunity.  Note that
                    the DJI made a 48%  recovery of what was lost in the 1929 Crash before turning down, down and
                    down as it did in the 1930-1933 bear market and Depression.  In AA's case, it could reach 27
                    if it recovered 50% of what it lost.   That's more than a double from today's close.
                     Similarly the DJI could recover half of what it lost as it fell from 14100 to 8100.  That
                    would bring a (6000/2) DJI move back to 11100.  That is 35% advance above 8000.    
             


           4.   Consider Which Stocks A Democrat Will Favor with a massive public works
               program, like CAT.   And Which They Will Not, like BA.
                      CAT